Baseball Chatter
  • 03:08 PM ET  08.08
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Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty ImagesWith the trade deadline and the Bonds Watch squarely in the rearview mirror, it's time to take stock of the pennant races. Who's in the race, who's out and who will win? Here are my picks for the American League along with my pithy observations on each ballclub. (For National League picks, go HERE.)

All standings updated heading into Wednesday's games.

AL East

Who's in?
Boston Red Sox
Raise your hand if you thought Coco Crisp  (.402) and Dustin Pedroia  (.436) would both have a higher slugging percentage than J.D. Drew (.378)? Even Julio Lugo (.762 OPS since the break) is starting to hit a little. But the key to this team is run prevention -- pitching and defense. Boston has allowed the fewest runs in the AL, 454, by a wide margin; second-place Oakland has allowed 485.

New York Yankees, 5.0 GB
As kind as the schedule has been lately, it's about to get a lot tougher. The rest of August includes three with Cleveland, eight with Detroit, three with Boston and three with Los Angeles. The Bombers are the classic bullies of late, beating up on overmatched pitching staffs. But what are they going to do against the league's top pitchers and how are they going to match up in the late innings with that flammable bullpen, the addition of rookie Joba "The Hutt" Chamberlain notwithstanding?

Who's out?
Toronto Blue Jays, 11.5 GB
The season isn't a total loss -- young right-handers Shawn Marcum (127 ERA+) and Dustin McGowan (112 ERA+) have been revelations. Plus, the Jays may finally have realized they can't rely on A.J. Burnett.

Baltimore Orioles, 15.0 GB
Led by Erik Bedard and Jeremy Guthrie, the pitching isn't half bad. But it's hard to win consistently with so much flotsam in the lineup. Melvin Mora, Kevin Millar, Jay Payton and Corey Patterson are the definition of mediocrity. The Aubrey Huff/Jay Gibbons platoon at DH has been a disaster.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays, 25.5 GB
There's a solid nucleus here, with Scott Kazmir, Akinori Iwamura, B.J. Upton, Delmon Young, Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford in the fold. There's more talent in the pipeline, too, but getting it all to mesh at the same time will be tricky.

Prediction: Red Sox cruise to their first division crown since the 1995 team Kevin Kennedy always talks about on his XM Radio show.

AL Central

Who's in?
Cleveland Indians
First it should be noted that they wouldn't be in this spot without a superhuman season from Rafael Betancourt and his 314 ERA+ (!) out of the 'pen. The bats are the problem during this recent slump -- the Indians were second in the AL in runs scored in the first half but rank 12th since the break. Josh Barfield (58 OPS+) has been an outmachine at the plate. On the bright side, the trade for Kenny Lofton creates an intriguing platoon with the right-handed Jason Michaels (career .847 OPS against lefties; .730 vs. righties). Plus, Jake Westbrook finally appears to be rounding into form.

Detroit Tigers, 0.5 GB
Don't worry too much about the recent slide -- it's nothing a series with the Devil Rays can't fix. Fernando Rodney is back, and not soon enough for this bullpen, which is still missing Joel Zumaya badly. Jeremy Bonderman has had a couple of ugly starts lately but he's none the worse for wear. Now that Nate Robertson is settling down, the key might be Kenny Rogers, who has yet to find the groove he was in last season.

Minnesota Twins, 6.5 GB
Luis Castillo wasn't as big a loss as some people are making him out to be. He was hitting an empty .300 and he's far removed from his heyday with the Marlins, when he was a force on the bases and a legitimate Gold Glover. The pitching is there to make another AL Central run, but it's hard to score runs with slappies like Jason Kubel, Jason Tyner, Nick Punto and Jason Bartlett getting regular playing time.

Who's out?

Chicago White Sox, 11.5 GB
They have scored the fewest runs in the league, and the pitching isn't any good either, especially in the bullpen. The Jermaine Dye Free-Agency Drive is officially on.

Kansas City Royals, 14.0 GB
This isn't a team anybody wants to play down the stretch. They've posted back-to-back winning months and this lineup is capable of an eruption on any given night.

Prediction: The Tigers' rotation will come together and the bullpen will settle down. They hold off the Indians in a tight race.

AL West

Who's in?
Los Angeles Angels
This pitching staff is deeper than the Laurentian Abyssal. The offense is still all about Vlad, but think about this: Gary Matthews Jr. is second on the team with 14 home runs and tied for second in RBIs with 64. Despite his heavily criticized contract and the HGH scandal in spring training, Matthews has been steady at the plate and in the field. If Howie Kendrick can avoid breaking any more fingers, this will be a dangerous lineup come October.

Seattle Mariners, 4.0 GB
They have gotten this far thanks to a surprisingly effective offense and a crazy good bullpen, which explains why they have outplayed their unimpressive run differential (536 runs scored, 532 runs allowed), but they aren't in the same class as the Angels. Closer J.J. Putz deserves to be mentioned as a legitimate candidate in the Cy Young race.

Who's out?
Oakland, 13.0 GB
They rank 13th in the AL in runs scored despite being second only to the Red Sox in drawing walks. Also, they are one of the best defensive teams -- by any and every metric -- in the majors. So they have a lot of walk-drawing Gold Glovers who can't hit a lick.

Texas Rangers, 17.5 GB
The Mark Teixeira Derby over and the death march has begun. As for the net results from their firesale, it's hard to give GM Jon Daniels the benefit of the doubt when his trade record is so spotty. Those kids he brought in better come through or this franchise is buried for the next five years.

Prediction: Angels pull away down the stretch and the Rally Monkey makes his postseason return.

The Wild Card Race

1. Tigers
2. Yankees, 0.5 GB
3. Mariners, 1.0 GB
4. Twins, 6.0 GB

Prediction: Actually, the Indians. The Tigers win the AL Central and Cleveland gets the consolation prize. The fatally-flawed Yankees will fall a couple of games short.

CLICK HERE FOR NATIONAL LEAGUE PICKS 

August 8, 2007  04:28 PM ET

You really think the Tigers are a better team than the Yankees? The Yankees will not catch up with the BoSox for the AL East Title but they will definitely get the Wild Card. Their much maligned pitching woes from the first half of the season have settled down. Mussina, Pettite, Wang (the most under rated pitcher in Baseball because of the ridiculous notion of having to strike a lot of people out to win games), Phillip Hughes, and Clemens who just kept a good hitting Blue Jay lineup in total check, can pitch more than well enough to win even if the Yankees bats cool down a bit against better pitching teams. When you get the massive production from players like Cabrera, Cano, Abreu and Matsui it allows the heavy hitters like Jeter, Posada and ARod to have off days. When you can bat Damon or Giambi or the powerhouse Duncan in at DH you are in a good position to take 2 of 3 games from any team. Rivera has been lights out and Joba pitches high 90's with pinpoint accuracy and an incredible 12-6 oclock curve. If he can settle in to the setup man role the Yanks have a fantastic 7-8-9 inning combo. I believe Joba can pitch 2 innings no problem when needed.

August 8, 2007  06:05 PM ET

I like the picks.

Everyone is making a big deal about the Yankees right now, but look who they have been playing- KC, TOR, TB, BALT (although the O's have been playing better). This upcoming schedule of LA, SEA, CLE, BOS will put them back in their place, which is a .500 team at best.

August 8, 2007  06:24 PM ET

Man I like the Yankees to get ot done.

August 8, 2007  06:57 PM ET

I think tthe team in trouble is Boston. Run prevention? I don't think so. they traded away thier third best starter and now they have only 2 guys they can rely on. Lester has shown me nothing since he's been back (he'll lose again tonight), Shilling has become a mediocre pitcher who needs the kind of run support the Sox no longer provide with consistency, and Wakefield is, well, Wakefield. Epstein always makes one deal too many, and sacrificing Gabbard fro a relieveer they don't need anyway was this year's gaffe.

August 8, 2007  08:56 PM ET

I completely agree with howderheads. The Red Sox don't have the big bats the Yankees do, and only Becket and DiceK have consistency as starters. Gabbard will go down in history as another stupid move by Epstein, right along with Drew (they should have kept Nixon) , Lugo, and Wily Mo Pena, who if he wasn't on the Red Sox, would probably be laboring in the minors somewhere. I do think, however, that they would probably be better off playing WIly MO more and Drew less, as with more at bats, Pena could be a much better impact player than Drew, who seems to sleep through games.

With the depth the Sox have in the bull pen, they have blown far too many games by leaving in their starting pitchers too long. I'm not sure if this is Francona, or Farrell making the decision, but it certainly seems easy for everyone else to see that they are losing it in the late evenings. Until the last outing, Timlin was lights out. Use Timlin in the seventh, and choose from Gagne or Oki for the eighth, and Paps in the ninth. Come on Tito, have the guts to get those pitchers out earlier, and you'll win more games. Remember Grady and Pedro.

August 8, 2007  09:02 PM ET

You have stated the impossible regarding the Twins. There is no way they can make a NL Central run when (per your prediction) simply because THEY ARE IN THE AMERICAN LEAGUE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! To quote you"Minnesota Twins, 6.5 GB
Luis Castillo wasn't as big a loss as some people are making him out to be. He was hitting an empty .300 and he's far removed from his heyday with the Marlins, when he was a force on the bases and a legitimate Gold Glover. The pitching is there to make another NL Central run, but it's hard to score runs with slappies like Jason Kubel, Jason Tyner, Nick Punto and Jason Bartlett getting regular playing time."

August 8, 2007  09:21 PM ET

Wow. I mean, really. Wow. No chowderheads comments are beyond startling in their lack of intelligence.

Theo's move was nothing short of brilliant. Selling high on Gabbard - who hasn't really done too well since he left - was a stroke of genius and solidifies a bullpen that will be lights out come October. The Yankees can't say that. A) they have a terrible bullpen and B) they won't be playing in October. While Theo's moves have not always panned out, a solid percentage of them have. Honestly, I think the King of Bad Signings lies some 200 miles to the south in one Brian Cashman. We can start with Kei Igawa and go from there....

And Schilling is going to be just fine - certainly better than the Yankees' ace - who is that again? I don't think any of their starters are pitching well. Please see tonight's performance of Mr. Wang as evidence of that. Schilling, Beckett and Dice-K are the strongest 3 around.

Better luck next year, Yanks. Have fun golfing in October.

August 8, 2007  09:32 PM ET

Im starting to sense some fear from the Sox fans......... no more 14 game cushion, can you say Boston Massacre '07?

August 8, 2007  09:38 PM ET

I believe "Bloody Sock" lost last night.

rdawg45 - Who do you think pitched last night when the Sox lost 10-4?

August 8, 2007  09:51 PM ET

Yankees miss the playoffs...hahaha. common, stop watching ESoxPN already...whats with all the"Yankees playing bad teams, no wonder their winning"...Please Sox fans, werent the Royals the ones that went to your house and spanked 2 out of 3 from you???? and the Orioles.

August 8, 2007  10:34 PM ET

You have stated the impossible regarding the Twins. There is no way they can make a NL Central run when (per your prediction) simply because THEY ARE IN THE AMERICAN LEAGUE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! To quote you"Minnesota Twins, 6.5 GB
Luis Castillo wasn't as big a loss as some people are making him out to be. He was hitting an empty .300 and he's far removed from his heyday with the Marlins, when he was a force on the bases and a legitimate Gold Glover. The pitching is there to make another NL Central run, but it's hard to score runs with slappies like Jason Kubel, Jason Tyner, Nick Punto and Jason Bartlett getting regular playing time."

August 8, 2007  10:37 PM ET

Didn't Boston have a 14 game lead, well its 5 with 6 games against each other and even though the Yanks schedule is very tough in August, Septembers' schedule is even easier than July. We will have the wild card wrapped up by the end of the month and then on to Boston.

August 8, 2007  11:25 PM ET

"Detroit Tigers, 0.5 GB
Don't worry too much about the recent slide -- it's nothing a series with the Devil Rays can't fix."

I believe Detroit just lost 7-1 to those Devil Rays.....

August 9, 2007  12:03 AM ET

OOOKKKK BOSOX fans got nothing on us yankees i just saw the Bronx is Burning and im ready! First off Jacob I know your a journalist and your suppose to have journalistic pov. But honestly what is your major league team of choice?
Well lets start with his predictions. It's August 8th and the Yanks have made up over 7 games in the wild card within the span of a month. There is two months left! I am sick and tired of people saying we're chewing bad teams. That's what they are suppose to do. Our luck (which there was none when we were leaning on unproven youngins like DeSalvo Clippard Rasner Karstens Igawa) decided to plop all these teams into one huge stretch. We did what? Go 21-7 and taking care of buisness.
Now comes a large test in teams with our caliber. Lets starts with the Tribe. Ok the Tribe in their last 61 gms are 31-30. They're not scoring the way they were and their pitching has been bad outside Fausto, CC, and Rafeal. Grady Sizemore is completely of the MVP map and Hafner is on the same boat with big Papi. Power hitters who lost their stroke. At this point the Tribe is playing just the way we want them before we pay them what should be en eye opening series to all baseball followers. THE YANKEES ARE COMING.
Let's see the Tribe's main competitor Detroit who I think is like the tribe but better in every facet. However, a team who was pulverizing teams throughout May and June have slowed their pace. Through their last 60 games they're a shade over .500 at 33-27. And they're still behind in the Central. Ok about their pen. Im not about to drop more indepth stats but every time I look at the scoreboard they're losing because why? Their BULLPEN. Something the Yanks are attempting to fix.
So you tell me if your still a believer that the way the yanks have played. The way those other wild-card contenders have played. That we're fatally flawwed? Every team chasing the pennant is flawed. But unlike others we can mask them with bats. LAA no power/ BOS no clutch hitting/ TIGERS no bullpen/ SEA a run diff of +4 lol/ CLEV not enough starters quiet bats of lately.
Another reason the Yanks will win the wild card is because the two teams we're all worried about didn't make a move at the deadline. Which suits us just fine. As for BOS if they win the pennant. Congrats! (on staying healthier than us) Im worried about number 27(rings) not number 17(division titles). What will the writers say when they take it to Clevland and Detroit? "Those teams are playing bad now"??? Remember the Yanks may play Tampa 19 times a yr. But Clevland and Detroit play KC 19 times as well. So don't start. One last tid bit of info.

DET v KC (8-4)
CLE v KC (5-4)
NYY v KC (6-1)
Funny ain't it?

August 9, 2007  02:42 AM ET

Well rdawg, Gabbard won last night and Lester got lit up again tonight. Gagne's era since coming to the redsox is 6.00 and I can't remember the last time Schilling won a game, but I know it was about 20 pounds ago. The Red Sox have only 2 good starters thanks to Epstein, and if you call that move "brilliant" then you are way too stupid to be insulting my intelligence.

August 9, 2007  03:31 AM ET

Agreed totally- everyone knew the Yanks had a long stretch of under performing teams the past 30 days- and now its over and they must face teams that are in contention- we saw tonight what happens when they face a veteran pitcher and they do not have the pitching for the post season and its actually insulting to compare the '07 team with the Hall of Famers that were playing on the '77 team.

As for the Red Sox winning five straight then dropping a few, its normal in any race and GOOD to see. Cleveland two games split at 1-0, yet took the series, Took 2-3 from Seattle, dropped 2 to the angels with two rehabbing pitchers returning from DL. Swept Blatimore after the YES network predicted we would lose to them. I'll take those numbers any day. Especially since we now have a lot of games left against the same teams the yanks just faced- the below .500 pack.

August 9, 2007  04:24 AM ET

ur an idiot ForeverNY. Many of the leagues best pitchers dont strike many people out on any given night. In fact, Brandon Webb, Roy Halladay, Wang, amongst others are some of the best in the buiz bc they are GROUND BALL pitchers. Webb and Halladay have Cy Youngs. Wang is a Yankee and they have a very big anti-yankee funk around them the past few years. The team is shallow and full of drama and overpaid, over the hill players. This is why Wang doesnt get his credit. Not bc he is not a strikeout pitcher.

August 9, 2007  10:05 AM ET

rsnation07, you say it is insulting to compare this yankee team to the hall of famers on the '77 team???? What are you talking about? Maybe since the '77 team smoked your team you like to remember it that way, but the reality is the only HOF'ers on that team were Reggie and Catfish Hunter. It is fairly safe to say that A-Rod, Jeter, and Rivera will be in the Hall eventually, and Cano is very young and promising, and with the numbers Matsui puts up consistently had he played his whole career here and not Japan, he would have been a potential HOF'er. Even with Nettles having a career year in '77, the most HR he ever hit and the only year he topped 100 RBI, this yankee team is far more potent then that team was.
While this team certainly has pitching issues, the '77 team didn't have spectacular pitching either. Hunter was 9-9 for the year and their top two pitchers had 16 wins each. They did have a better ERA in '77, 3.61 compared to 4.40 today, but if the yankee bullpen improves, that gap will close. Stick to talking about the Sox, you are clueless about the yankees.

August 9, 2007  10:45 AM ET

cask23, as a yankees fan I have to say that it is a bit far fetched to believe that if Matsui played his entire career in the MLB that he would potentially be in the HOF. Matsui is a solid, hardworking, un-selfish ballplayer. He is a player that most ballclubs desire in his consitent, positive, team-first attitude. Is Matusi an asset to the Yankees, yes...Is he going to be an key part in the Yankees battle for a playoff spot, yes...Is he someone who is reliable and going to produce in tight spots, yes...Is he a player with HOF potential/talent, no.

 
August 9, 2007  11:06 AM ET

all of you who commented r incredibly harsh. The Bo Sox are still killing the Yanks in the AL central. It dosent matter who the Yanks play they SUCK. Last night the Sox won 6-9 in a well pitched match with LAA. The Yankee's still have great hitters they are wildly inconsistent. If i am not mistaken the Evil Empire lost 15-4 against the lowly Blue Jays. The Red Sox pitching staff is exellent (69-45, 3.81 ERA and 454 runs the fewest in the AL) If you think that a slump is 2 losses in a row is a slump for the sox your in for a rude awakening when the Yanks face the powerhouses

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