Who's in the race, who's out and who will win the coveted playoff spots in the National League? See below. (And please click HERE for my American League predictions.)
NL East
Who's In?
New York Mets
They don't always make it look easy but this is still the best team in the NL. Its grip on that title is tenuous though, depending greatly on the health of Moises Alou and Carlos Beltran, the nerves of rookie outfielder Lastings Milledge, the fortysomething right arm of Orlando Hernandez and the long-awaited comeback of Pedro Martinez. As much as everybody loves Paul Lo Duca, this is a better team when Ramon Castro gets at-bats.
Atlanta Braves, 3.5 GB
Bobby Cox can still platoon with the best of them. Look at his left-field combo of Willie Harris (125 OPS+) and Matt Diaz (129 OPS+). With Mark Teixeira and Octavio Dotel on board, now Cox just has to worry about getting Andruw Jones to perform and getting something out of his fifth starter.
Philadelphia Phillies, 4.0 GB
Losing Chase Utley, who was having an MVP season, was a huge blow. Tadahito Iguchi has proven to be a capable replacement, at least in the short term. The NL's highest-scoring team isn't going to win anything in subtle fashion -- the Phillies are 6-19 in one-run games and 20-14 in blowouts (five-plus runs).
Who's out?
Washington Nationals, 11.5 GB
They were supposed to be one of the worst teams in history, but it looks like they won't even lose 100 games. Dmitri Young, Ronnie Belliard and Ryan Church have kept the offense from being outright putrid, and the bullpen has been better than average. Manny Acta is as solid a choice for manager of the year as anybody.
Florida Marlins, 11.5 GB
They have two of the best hitters in the majors in Hanley Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera. And Dan Uggla and Josh Willingham give them a formidable top four sluggers. The problem is none of those guys can field very well. Add a porous defense with an injury riddled pitching staff and this is what you get: the same record as the Nationals.
Prediction: The Mets will hold on thanks to the late, heroic return of a diminutive Hall of Fame right-hander.
NL Central
Who's in?
Milwaukee Brewers
After a magical start, the only thing they've been any good at lately is finding new and creative ways to lose. Just imagine where they would be without ROY front-runner Ryan Braun. What they need is what they have always needed: a bona fide stopper in the rotation. Are you listening Ben Sheets?
Chicago Cubs, 1.0 GB
Kudos to the Cubs for remaking themselves early on. Installing second baseman Mike Fontenot and shortstop Ryan Theriot as regulars were inspired moves, as was getting Alfonso Soriano out of center field. Those changes, and the trade of Michael Barrett, had more to do with the turnaround than Lou Piniella's ramblings.
Who's out?
St. Louis Cardinals, 7.0 GB
With the exception of losing Chris Carpenter, are they that much worse than last year's club? Albert Pujols can still knock the cover off the ball and Yadier Molina is still a banjo hitter. The difference is the division is a lot better.
Houston Astros, 9.5 GB
Getting Ty Wigginton from Tampa Bay was a great move, but he can't solve enough of this team's problems. They miss Adam Everett's glove a lot, the arms of Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte even more.
Cincinnati Reds, 11.0 GB
Adam Dunn has the highest OPS+ of any regular on the team (including Ken Griffey Jr.). But somehow he's not a player to build around for this club. And for some reason they couldn't trade him at the deadline either. So what is their plan here? Do they have one? At this point Reds fans must be feeling like Mulder & Scully: "I want to believe."
Pittsburgh Pirates, 12.5 GB
This club is stuck in a spin cycle, always seeming to have an array of promising young arms but consistently failing to develop them into winners. It doesn't help that the offense ranks near the bottom of the league year in and year out.
Prediction: Sheets comes back, setup man Scott Linebrink gets hot and Milwaukee finally makes it back to October.
NL West
Who's in?
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Brewers' Braun is lucky Justin Upton wasn't called up earlier. The kid who homered and nearly hit for the cycle on Tuesday night might be the big bat the overachieving D'backs have been missing all season. The Bros. Upton (B.J. plays for Tampa Bay) will be a treat to watch for the next decade.
San Diego Padres, 1.0 GB
The offense isn't nearly as bad as it looks. Overall the Padres rank 12th in the NL in runs, and they are fifth in the league in runs scored on the road. Petco is killing these hitters. That's why they need to get the Jake Peavy-Chris Young one-two punch rolling again.
Colorado Rockies, 4.0 GB
A long time ago in what must have been a galaxy far, far away, the Rockies made the playoffs behind a thunderous offense and a stingy bullpen. The Rockies have finally gotten back to that same formula and it is paying off. If All-Star closer Brian Fuentes can return to his first-half form, he'll give the Rox a nice lefty-righty combo with Manny Corpas.
Los Angeles Dodgers, 4.0 GB
The offense has hit a lull and the starting rotation is banged up, with Jason Schmidt, Randy Wolf and Hong-Chih Kuo out and Derek Lowe and Brad Penny hobbled. This is probably the most talented team in the division, and the kids -- James Loney and Matt Kemp -- have come through, but veterans Nomar Garciaparra and Rafael Furcal have to pick it up.
Who's out?
San Francisco Giants, 13.5 GB
By now, anybody who was taken hostage by the Bonds Watch knows this all too well: The Giants are terrible. Outside of the Big Three of Noah Lowry (131 ERA+), Tim Lincecum (121 ERA+) and Matt Cain (110 ERA+) , what else is there to build on here? At least now we can stop watching.
Prediction: The Rockies come out of nowhere and take it, setting the stage for a possible Todd Helton vs. the Red Sox matchup in the World Series.
The Wild Card Race
1. Padres
2. Braves, 1.5 GB
3. Phillies, 2 GB
4. Cubs, 3.0 GB
5. Dodgers, 3.0 GB
6. Rockies, 3.0 GB
Prediction: The Braves try something new and make it as the wild cards after winning the division umpteen times.
Ariel Meredith
Bar Refaeli
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Comments (25) Add A Comment
49 games left. The Brewers & Cubs are losing games (3-7 & 4-6 in their last 10, respectively), the Astros are winning (5-5 in their last 10). The Brewers have consistently played worse 2nd halves, while the Astros are notorious for their winning 2nd halves. You need a "Who's not in, but not out, yet" section. Put the Astros there.
Sorry, I'm just a die-hard Astros fan who has watched this team battle back the last few years. And the way they've been playing lately and the Brewers & Cubs haven't (since the loss of Soriano), I'm not ruling the 'Stros out just yet.
oswaltisgod
Where The Astros Play, TX
Total Comments (99)
dbacks dont make it period? sry but this is crazy i mean the rockies step up. I see the braves with the wild card maybe the padres by the backs will make it to the playoffs.
Elway4Prez
Glendale , AZ
Total Comments (2503)
you are a tool, try watching a baseball game, or do a little research before you write an article. You think Pedro is the answer for the Mets? he is throwing in the low to mid 80's. Not to mention that Atlanta is 7-3 against the Mets this year. WOW it amazes me that someone that knows so little can be considered a professional sports writer.
BSchwartz07
Shreveport, LA
Total Comments (6415)
the astros will not make up the ground they lost, they can even get past the cards fo third place, its going to be either cubs or the brewers, dont even say things about the astros becuase they cant get atop of their division
saberbaseball13
Franklin, WI
Total Comments (4)
I disagree. We have several direct games with the Brewers, Cards, and Cubs. If we win them all, we'll be back in. Everyone ruled the Astros out last year and they almost came back.
whsie
Sugar Land , TX
Total Comments (15)
I think the tool in this blog is BSchwartz07. If Pedro comes back and can perform as a #4 or #5 starter for the rest of this season the Mets will be just fine. Most of the core offensive players on that team (except Reyes and Wright) are having off seasons and yet they are still 3 1/2 up on Atlanta. The bullpen is solid, say what you want about ElDuque being old but his ERA is 3.00 and his WHIP is 1.31 which is more than respectable. Maine and Perez have both had stinkers here and there but they are a collective 22 - 13 with ERAs of 3.27 and 3.00 respectively. Not too shabby ! They have to solve the Braves for sure and the Phillies are tough as well . But thats why they play the games right ? If they start Castro more and Beltran can get productive they are still the hands down most balanced team in the NL. And stacked with tons of young talent to boot ! Get used to seeing them above the Braves in the standings, the worm has turned.
nwyawka
Columbus , OH
Total Comments (3)
Jacob Luft has quickly become the biggest idiot one can find in all of SI.com sportswriters. I am sorry to be so harsh but you have got to be kidding me with much of his predictions (yes I'm a Padres fan so naturally I'm disgusted with his NL West and wildcard picks, and the entire NL discussion is ridiculous - Pedro? he hasn't thrown a major league pitch yet this year).
But it's beyond that. My guess is Luft has never played a day of competitive sports in his life and therefore hasn't a clue about intestinal fortitude and the will to succeed. Beyond that I wonder if Luft has watched a full game on TV or at a ballpark this year. Something tells me he is a stat man and a "fantasy guru". Sad, man.
Again, Sorry to be hostile toward a guy trying to do a job, but this is just offensive to people who truly follow sports and have been in competitive sports at some stage in their lives.
EastCoastKeith
Total Comments (2161)
yeah you tool!!
Elway4Prez
Glendale , AZ
Total Comments (2503)
honestly though man it seems like you pulled names out of a hat. you honestly expect the dbacks, padres and dodgers to just flat out choke?!?!
Elway4Prez
Glendale , AZ
Total Comments (2503)
No way the Rockies win. No way.
PhillyFan
Medford Lakes, NJ
Total Comments (1236)
ROCKIES WIN THE PENNANT!!!
ROCKIES WIN THE PENNANT!!!!!!!!
Phish
Palmer Lake , CO
Total Comments (3)
Freakin dodgers suck, they let us down again
they wont trade 4 a decent hitter
should have gotten griffey
Joe NM
Albuquerque , NM
Total Comments (36)
I'm glad that somebody is recognizing that the Rockies might actually pull this out. After the Rockies finally dropped the GenR and started playing like they belonged in the majors, the true stars have come out as Helton has been slumping. Thankfully, Helton is back in form and the Rockies can put up 19 run on the slumping (still in first in the central) Brewers. The way they played against both New York teams this year has a few believing they might win a playoff series if they can get there. It is also nice to see that Rockies fans are starting to show up at games, even though it means that I have to get my cheap tickets early if I want a good seat. Blake Street Bombers are back with speed and some pitchers that can throw the ball low to get the ground ball outs. Oh yeah, if Tulo doesn't win the Gold Glove this year then something is wrong with the voters.
RkymtnhiColo
Greeley , CO
Total Comments (2)
ROCKIES WIN THE PENNANT!!
ROCKIES WIN THE PENNANT!!
Phish
Palmer Lake , CO
Total Comments (3)
I smell a three peat for the Padres and then another early exit from the playoffs...you're all tools!
Bigslick
Killeen , TX
Total Comments (1)
ridiculous...despite the Cubs woes right now they are going to easily run past milwaukee for this division....
Maddux
Chicago , IL
Total Comments (174)
The Phils have had significant losses to personnel via injury and still found a way to hang in. In about three weeks they have everyone back (offensively). They have continued to succeed recently without Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, and Michael Bourne. Ryan Howard is clicking. Earlier about a month or so ago the national writers were calling for him to sit against left handed pitching. Guess who leads baseball with HR's against lefthanders, and further who is right up there in Total homeruns despite 3 weeks off for injury? If the Phils are within 4 games of Met's when they get these three bats back, they will at least get the wildcard.
Ronb124
Princeton, NJ
Total Comments (3)
I'm not so sure. Everytime the Cubs win, the Brewers win. Everytime the Cubs lose, the Brewers lose. It's strange, but at this rate, the Cubs won't gain any ground other than to wait for the others to catch them. Oh, the Cubs just got side swiped by the Stros and the Stros are facing the Brewers next.
whsie
Sugar Land , TX
Total Comments (15)
BSchwartz07,
Here's your profile comments:
"Ok i have been on here for a while so it is about time i fill this out. I am 22 and in the USAF. I love anything sports, and consider my self a dedicated fan that admires talent outside of my teams. That said i do not consider my self too biased, and i can even respect when a Rival does well. "
Here's your last post:
"you are a tool, try watching a baseball game, or do a little research before you write an article. You think Pedro is the answer for the Mets? he is throwing in the low to mid 80's. Not to mention that Atlanta is 7-3 against the Mets this year. WOW it amazes me that someone that knows so little can be considered a professional sports writer."
1. Way to represent the Air Force so professionally.
2. There are plenty of pitchers in the Major Leagues who throw in the in low to mid 80's.. Maddux comes to mind.
3. The writer did say that the Braves make the playoffs, just not win their division. Which, in this day in age, is just as good. Go-go bud Selig! Anyways...
4. Your "objectivity" is astounding...
Siaynoq
Total Comments (2)
I'm sick of Phillie fans crying about injuries. The Mets have been without their ace (Pedro) & top set-up man (Filthy Sanchez) all year, the top 6 outfielders have all spent time on the DL (Alou, Beltran, Green, Chavez, & phenoms Milledge & Gomez), El Duque missed over a month and Perez missed a few starts. Plus Delgado has had an off-year. And they still have the best record in the NL. Phillies will choke in Sept. for the 6th year in a row (since '01!), they have no pitching.
PSUalum
Total Comments (1)
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