Why Kentucky beats Louisville this Saturday:
Sagarin has UK +9 1/2
Louisville lost (to spread) against Middle Tennessee by 22. Kentucky beat spread against Kent St. by 23. Subtract the 6 1/2 UL's favored by from this 22 1/2 pt. margin = UK by 16.
UK is 7-1 in their last 8 games--a totally different team from the first game last year.
UK's defense is at least 7 points better than the end of last season, and 14 points better than at the beginning of last season. UL won the second half of last year's game 31-28 (after Bush was injured). UK +14 minus UL +3 = UK by 11.
Louisville hasn't had a single sack yet this season, against neither Murray St (a 1-10 1-AA team last year), nor Middle Tennessee (lost to FAU first game).
UK has speed on defense as well as the offense, unlike UL.
Bobby Petrino took UL's real defensive coordinator with him to Atlanta, and left Mike Cassity in Louisville.
Kentucky's hungrier.
From the Defender of the (Wildcat) Faith in the River City (Louisville), make it UK 41, UL 28.
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