Brett's Blog
  • 02:58 AM ET  09.15
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Five overtime games highlighted last week's slate of NCAA games, and although the top games of the day (Virginia Tech-LSU, TCU-Texas) disappointed, those exciting finishes made it a day to remember in and around the top 25 of college football. While this week's schedule may lack the depth of quality featured last Saturday, there are four matchups pitting top-25 squads against one another, which should make for some great games. And despite those games, maybe the biggest question this week is who will emerge from Ann Arbor in one piece? Does Lloyd Carr's hot seat catch on fire? Can Nebraska notch the signature win the program has been looking for since 2001 by knocking off No. 1 USC? And most importantly, can Oregon survive against Fresno State with their mascot suspended? On to the top 10 matchups...

10. Pittsburgh (+11.5) at Michigan State

Noon EST, ESPN

Ah, September. When cool breezes begin to swirl in the Midwest as summer turns to fall, leaves begin to change colors, schoolteachers welcome news classes of eager learners, and Michigan State looks like world-beaters. Then comes October, where a Spartan meltdown has become more of a rite of the season than the World Series and Halloween. But alas, John L. Smith is no longer in East Lansing, which guarantees us one thing: no more classic tirades like this.

But that other previously stone-cold lock, Michigan State seeing a suddenly promising season fly south for the winter, is no longer an absolute. Mark Dantonio has brought some pride back to a program that was on its heels after Smith was fired. They dominated a better-than-you-think UAB team in Week 1, and took care of business against pesky Bowling Green last week. What does all that mean? Nothing yet. We're still in September. But with a tailback tandem of Jehuu Caulcrick and Javon Ringer able to control the clock and hammer away for tough yardage, this Spartan squad is in better position to avoid letdowns than the Drew Stanton-led groups of the past few years. Pitt has been ravaged by injuries early on in 2007, losing their starting quarterback, their star receiver, Derek Kinder to a torn ACL, and most recently, defensive lineman Gus Mustakas to the same injury. But they have what's turning into a running-back tandem of their own in LaRod Stephens-Howling and freshman LeSean McCoy. Pitt has allowed just 123 yards through its first two games, but going to East Lansing will be a stern test for their unproven quarterbacks, Kevan Smith and freshman Pat Bostick. Smith struggled last week against Grambling State, so don't be surprised to see Bostick get the call.

The pick: Michigan State 33, Pittsburgh 24

9. Wyoming (+12) at Boise State

8 p.m. EST, ESPN GamePlan

Boise State's nation-best 14-game winning streak came to an end last week in Seattle, and Washington proved two tough for its neighbors to the east. Tailback Ian Johnson just never got going for the Broncos, but it was quarterback Taylor Tharp's three interceptions that ensured the Huskies would walk away winners. Now, it's back to the blue turf in Boise, which has proved such a difficult setting for opponents to win in the past decade.

Wyoming actually trailed Utah State heading into the fourth quarter last week in Laramie, but a 15-point final frame gave the Cowboys a two-touchdown victory. But a week earlier, Wyoming dominated Virginia, holding the Cavaliers to 110 yards of offense in a 23-3 licking, racking up 471 yards of their own in the process. Granted, Virginia is one of the five worst BCS conference schools this year, but an effort like that against a team that is supposedly on the rise has to help your confidence. Cowboys quarterback Karsten Sween, like Tharp, didn't take care of the football last week, tossing two interceptions (one of which was taken back for a touchdown), so this one will likely boil down to who can keep the negative plays to a minimum under center. Look for Tharp to bounce back in a big way, and if Boise State can get Johnson untracked early, the Broncos could roll as they try to wash away the sour taste from last week.

The pick: Boise State 30, Wyoming 17

8. Fresno State (+16.5) at No. 19 Oregon

7 p.m. EST, ESPN GamePlan

There's no way Oregon can be as good as it looked last week in The Big House, right? After all, much like Michigan State, this is a team that's come out like gangbusters in September in the past, only to fold like a $10 tent once they hit the meat of their Pac-10 schedule. But boy, Dennis Dixon sure looked in control in the shotgun spread the Ducks run so well. And Jonathan Stewart and Jeremiah Johnson looked awfully tough running the ball. Sure, things might change once they find themselves in track meets every Saturday against the likes of Arizona State and USC, but right now, who would want to wander into Autzen Stadium to deal with these guys?

Fresno State was thisclose to pulling off an upset at Kyle Field in front of the renowned 12th man better known as the fans of Texas A&M, but fell in triple overtime thanks to the bowling ball of a back better known as Jorvorskie Lane. The Bulldogs allowed the Aggies to run the ball a whopping 63 times for 318 yards, and that was ultimately their downfall in College Station. Taking on Stewart, who at a mere 230 pounds seems like a stick figure in comparison to the tree-trunk that is Lane, should seem like a breather, but that'll hardly be the case. Stewart is one of the more talented backs in the country that you rarely hear about. Fresno will have to take to the air, which Tom Brandstater did quite successfully last week, finding tight end Bear Pascoe three times for touchdowns. Pascoe has been incredible the first two games of the 2007 season, grabbing four TDs overall and becoming a dominant red-zone force. Defense will be at a premium, but that should favor Oregon in this one.

The pick: Oregon 41, Fresno State 28

7. Notre Dame (+8) at Michigan

3:30 p.m. EST, ABC

The thought that Michigan would rise up and take their frustrations from the Appalachian State loss out on Oregon was a prevailing one heading into the game against the Ducks last week, but it did not take long to see that was far-fetched. Logic dictated that if the two-time defending I-AA champs could spread Michigan out and take advantage downfield, a more talented Pac-10 squad would certainly be able to do the same. As usual, logic won out. Michigan's lack of speed and frankly, lack of talent in the secondary was exposed yet again, and here the Wolverines sit at 0-2, with the state of the program so dire that one nearly forgets the President addressed the nation regarding troop withdrawl on Thursday night, not Lloyd Carr's job status.

But Notre Dame is no Oregon, nor an Appalachian State. If the Mountaineers played Michigan 10 times, they might lose seven or eight of those. But if Jerry Moore's program played this Notre Dame team 10 times, they might win all 10. Notre Dame has -8 rushing yards through two games, which, for the sake of full disclosure, came against the stifling defenses of Georgia Tech and Penn State. But the passing game is no better, and despite Jimmy Clausen's relatively poised debut in State College, he barely attempted a throw 10 yards downfield. Looking at the Irish's schedule, an 0-8 start is likely, and Navy and Air Force will be tough tests after that before the season ends with two gimmies in Duke and Stanford. Michigan is in a tougher spot as a program right this minute, but that's because they were expected to win the Big Ten and contend for a national title. They should rebound an at least win seven games, however, and make it to a bowl. If Notre Dame winds up 3-9, the honeymoon Notre Dame fans had in Charlie Weis' first two seasons may be headed straight for divorce court.

The pick: Michigan 31, Notre Dame 13

6. No. 9 Louisville (-5.5) at Kentucky

7:30 p.m. EST, ESPN Classic

The Bluegrass state rivals have played basketball games that featured fewer points than you may find on the football field tomorrow. The over/under for this clash of the offensive titans is a remarkable 76, and don't bet on Vegas getting too much play on the under. These might be two bad defenses, but more than that, they are two great offenses.

Brian Brohm is one of the leading candidates to win the Heisman after bypassing the NFL to return to Louisville for his senior season. Andre Woodson wasn't considered the sure thing Brohm was, but he would have been a first-day pick as well, instead opting to come back to Kentucky. Woodson's go-to guy is senior receiver Keenan Burton, though junior Dicky Lyons gets a lot of looks as well. Brohm spreads the ball around better than anyone in the country, finding starters Harry Douglas and Mario Urrutia as well as third receiver Gary Barnidge. But it could be sophomore running back Anthony Allen who makes the difference, as he's average nearly 170 yards per game in Louisville's first two contests. Woodson has yet to beat Brohm in a rivalry that dates back to their high school days, but his final chance is easily his best. Considering the game is being aired live on ESPN Classic, maybe the suits in Bristol have a sense of foreshadowing in mind.

The pick: Kentucky 45, Louisville 42

5. No. 21 Boston College (+6.5) at No. 15 Georgia Tech

8 p.m. EST, ESPN

No program has seen its profile rise as much since the start of the season as Georgia Tech. And while the Yellow Jackets have been very impressive in their two wins, keep in mind they've beaten Notre Dame and Samford. A 30-point win in South Bend would be a feat if 10 priests and a rabbi lined up on the field for the Irish, but oddly enough, it was Georgia Tech's 69-14 demolition of Samford that vaulted the Yellow Jackets up six spots in the polls. Taylor Bennett has only needed to throw the ball 32 times in the team's two wins, so it's been the Tashard Choice show. The senior running back has racked up 306 yards thus far, which would have been far greater had he been needed after the first quarter last week.

Matt Ryan is the straw that stirs the drink for BC, and he's been good if not spectacular in the Eagles' two wins. He dusted Wake Forest's defense for 400-plus yards in the opener while tossing five touchdown passes before an uneven performance against N.C. State that saw him complete only 15-of-34 passes. Andre Callender is a solid running back, but he'll find lanes much tougher to spot against the Yellow Jackets' swarming defense. Georgia Tech is seventh nationally in yards allowed through two games, at 181 per, while the Eagles have given up nearly 400 yards of offense in their two wins. Boston College, however, has already played two conference games, in a bit of a scheduling oddity, and after its trip to Atlanta, will face four non-conference games in a row in Army, UMass, Bowling Green and Notre Dame. No matter how this turns out for BC, better days are ahead.

The pick: Georgia Tech 34, Boston College 21

4. No. 10 Ohio State (-3.5) at Washington

3:30 p.m. EST, ESPN

The Huskies, the dominant Pac-10 program of the 1990s, are back - we think. We're not sure, of course, and we might not be even after Saturday. But Ty Willingham definitely has this program headed in the right direction, and they'll get a much better barometer after facing lean, mean Ohio State in a cross-country battle. The Huskies are led by highly touted freshman quarterback Jake Locker, who used his arm and legs to get past Boise State last weekend, but it was the Washington defense, which forced four Broncos turnovers, that really stood out.

And unlike the Troy Smith-led, multi-faceted Buckeye attack of last year, this is an Ohio State team that is much more of a, um, conventional Big Ten offense. There's a big back (Chris Wells) a quarterback who you're not really sure is good but is big and has a nice arm (Todd Boeckman), and some wide receivers with good hands but not necessarily breakaway speed (Brian Robiskie, Brian Hartline). If the Buckeyes are to get out of the Puget Sound with a win, it will be on the strength of their defense, the stingiest in the country in yards allowed through two games. At some point though, the offense will have to make a play to win a close game, and it remains to be seen if this OSU offense can do that. The crowd in Husky Stadium will be rocking for this one, but Locker will have to be mistake-free or else the Buckeye defense might be able to carry the offense on its back for at least one more week. And if there's one thing that makes Jim Tressel happy, it's defense. And giving Maurice Clarett cars.

The pick: Ohio State 20, Washington 14

3. No. 16 Arkansas (-3) at Alabama

6:45 p.m. EST, ESPN2

The first big game in Nick Saban's Crimson Tide tenure (he's still there, right?) is also his first opportunity to get into the top 25. Tuscaloosa will be raucus as the Razorbacks come to town featuring Heisman front-runner Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, who could be the feature back just about anywhere else in the country. But it's been Alabama freshman running back Terry Grant who has led the SEC in rushing through two games with 307 yards on his way to winning the conference freshman-of-the-week award twice.

The Tide has needed Grant to be that good because John Parker Wilson has been anything but so far. The junior quarterback has yet to throw a touchdown pass and will have to be better against Arkansas or Saban won't hesitate to bring in backup Greg McElroy. Arkansas had an extra week to think about its trip to Sabanville after dispatching Troy, 46-26 two weeks ago in a game that the Razorbacks led by just six at the half. But a third-quarter touchdown pass ended all doubt in that contest. Much like Philip Rivers struggling against the Bears' defense last week, it was a running back to the rescue - LaDainian Tomlinson throwing a TD to put Chicago away and McFadden doing the same to bury Troy. Casey Dick, like Wilson, looked less-than-stellar against the Trojans, but that's Houston Nutt's No. 1 option after Mitch Mustain's much-publicized offseason transfer to USC. Dick doesn't always have to make plays considering who lines up behind him, though, and odds are, Wilson will have to at some point if the Tide is to pull off this upset.

The pick: Arkansas 27, Alabama 23

2. No. 22 Tennessee (+7.5) at No. 5 Florida

3:30 p.m. EST, CBS

Tim Tebow gets his first test as a starting quarterback, but it's in the Swamp against a defense that gave up 45 points just two weeks ago. Tebow will be missing receiver Andre Caldwell, but he has no shortage of other targets to find, with four other receivers having between 95 and 122 yards receiving. The sophomore QB has looked great so far, posting six touchdowns without throwing a pick, while also doing what he did best last year - running. Tebow has 131 yards and three scores on the ground as well.

The Gators' concern is on defense, where Urban Meyer has questioned his defensive line, talking about potentially replacing both starting defensive tackles just two games into the season. They'll have to be stout against Tennessee's running game, which is a three-headed attack, featuring LaMarcus Coker, Arian Fosterr and Montario Hardesty. What this games will hinge on, however, is how well Erik Ainge can handle the atmosphere in Gainesville. He'll have a young Gator defense, which lost nine starters from its national championship squad, to pick on, and he's been flawless early on this season, throwing for 533 yards and five touchdowns. His knee injury from the spring seems to be heeled, and if it isn't completely gone, he certainly hasn't shown it thus far. Tennessee has won two of its last three trips to the Swamp.

The pick: Florida 31, Tennessee 26

1. No. 1 USC (-9.5) at No. 14 Nebraska

8 p.m. EST, ABC

Lincoln will be alive and well for this prime-time showdown, the Huskers' first chance to show the country that it is still one of the nation's elite programs. There have been more lows than highs since Nebraska's blowout loss in the 2002 National Championship game, a game in which they shouldn't have played anyway after being humiliated by Colorado, 62-36, the day after Thanksgiving. Bill Callahan appears to have the program headed in the right direction after a testy first few years, and this is his chance to prove it.

We may know less about USC than any top 25 program in the country through two weeks. Part of it has to do with the fact they've only played one game, and part of it has to do with the fact they spent much of that one game looking like they'd rather be anywhere but the L.A. Coliseum. John David Booty and the Trojan offense looked somewhat inconsistent in the first half against Idaho, but then a spectacular TD catch by Vidal Hazelton reminded everyone that this is, in fact, the undisputed No. 1 team in the land. After LSU's woodshed beatdown of Virginia Tech last week, though, it's clear that the Tigers (and Oklahoma for that matter) are gaining ground, and you better believe Pete Carroll's team knows it. They'll be ready and firing on all cylinders, not the least of which is their dominant defense. Nebraska hammered Nevada at home before narrowly escaping Wake Forest with a 20-17 win. Sam Kellar looked awfully shaky in that game, throwing two picks and nearly costing the Huskers the game, and the Arizona State transfer will have to be much better than he was the last time he faced USC, when he threw five interceptions as a Sun Devil. If Marlon Lucky and the Huskers' running game can get in gear, and the defense can force Booty to make some mistakes, this one could be awfully close. Will the jacked-up sea of red under the Lincoln night sky be enough to make the difference?

The pick: USC 31, Nebraska 20

Bonus locks of the week:

Auburn (-12.5) over Mississippi State

Middle Tennessee State (+40.5) over LSU

Utah (+15.5) over UCLA

 

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