I usually play by the numbers, but it always seems to bite me in the butt. In 2007 I picked Duke, one of the big name teams in the Tourny, to win it all, but they didn't make it to the second game(lost 77-79 to VCU). Still sold on Coach K's abilities, I picked the Blue Devils to win it all in 2008. This time they did just a little better, getting beat in the second round by West Virginia 67-73. Oh, and by the way, I picked Duke to win the championship this year in one of my Yahoo! brackets. If they lose this time, I'm gonna lay off picking them for a while.
Today I began to really wonder how exactly I should pick the tournament from now on. No matter how I look at it, it's a lose-lose situation for me. If I pick the favorites, they get upset. If I pick the underdog, they get throttled. Finally I thought of a way to make the picks without even having to look at the teams playing: Flipping a coin.
Here's how I decided to do it: Flip a quarter for all the games of the tournament. The first team listed is heads (no matter what seed number is higher), the other is tails. The side that comes up moves on to the next round.
While most of the results were pretty far off, I found many that were quite accurate. Those included:
*#13 Murray State beating #4 Vanderbilt
*#14 Ohio beating #3 Georgetown
*#11 Old Dominion beating #6 Notre Dame
*#1 Kansas failing to make it past the second round
Do I recommend flipping a coin to fill out an office bracket? No. Is there any reason for me to spend my time doing this? Yes. It really proves a point about picking March Madness games. You can analyze all 64 teams for as long as you want, but in the end getting the picks right is just like calling heads or tails on the flip of a coin: It's all about luck.