Brett's Blog
  • 07:45 PM ET  09.20
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Is this a great slate of college football action this weekend? Definitely not. Saturday is especially weak considering two of the better games are on Thursday and Friday. But we'll know a lot more about the balance of power in the SEC and the Pac-10, currently the nation's two premier conferences, after Saturday.  

10. Air Force (+11) at BYU

Saturday, 3 p.m. EST., The Mtn.

BYU, sitting at 1-2 after its initial three games of the season, lost last week to Tulsa in a 55-47 shootout, but its perception was probably hurt more by UCLA's blowout loss to a flawed Utah team. The Cougars statistically dominated the Bruins a week earlier, but four turnovers ensured the upset in the Rose Bowl would not come to pass. Zoom ahead to the BYU-Tulsa track meet, and again, despite a ridiculous 537 passing yards from Max Hall and three 100-yard receivers, four turnovers doomed the Cougars once again. This is a team that can put up serious points, but quite obviously, hanging onto the ball is more than a small issue.

Air Force is off to a stunning 3-0 start, with a quality win in Salt Lake City against aforementioned Utah, and another surprise result when the Falcons came from 17-3 down in the fourth quarter to topple TCU 20-17. The defense has allowed just three touchdowns in the three victories, and the offense has been efficient if not spectacular. As usual, most of the work has been done on the ground, with the team averaging nearly 240 yards per contest toting the rock. Four rushers have gained more than 100 yards, with Jim Ollis leading the way. That BYU is favored in this game is not a shock, but that they're favored by 11 points is a bit out of line considering the quality of Air Force's last two wins.

The pick: BYU 29, Air Force 24

9. Iowa (+7.5) at No. 9 Wisconsin

Saturday, 8 p.m. EST, ABC

This match-up looked pretty sexy a week ago, with Wisconsin being picked by many to win the Big Ten, and Iowa a chic dark horse considering the Hawkeyes manage to avoid both Michigan and Ohio State this fall. But Iowa just had to go out and lose to Iowa State. A rivalry loss? Tough to take, but excusable, even if you have better players. But a rivalry loss to a team that had spent its opening two weeks getting smacked around at home by Kent State and I-AA Northern Iowa? No pardons for that.

With that said, Iowa had yet to allow a touchdown this season, allowing only a field goal to Northern Illinois, shutting out Syracuse, and giving up five field goals to the Cyclones. Now, Northern Illinois and Syracuse aren't exactly USC and LSU, but Iowa is hardly the only team out there whose non-conference schedule leaves something to be desired. New quarterback Jake Christiansen has been pretty good for the Hawkeyes early on, but the running back duo of Albert Young and Damian Sims is what's really revving the engine for Iowa. They'll get some room to maneuver against the Badger defense, which was torn apart in the first half last week against I-AA The Citadel before taking charge in the final 30 minutes. Wisconsin's offense has been stellar though, and despite a merely average output against UNLV, the Badgers have committed just two turnovers (both fumbles) this season. Tyler Donovan has taken care of the ball and made plays with his arm and legs thus far, which is more than can be said for many Wisconsin quarterbacks who are simply asked not to turn the ball over.

The pick: Wisconsin 31, Iowa 17

8. Washington (+6.5) at UCLA

Saturday, 10:15 p.m EST, Fox Sports Net

Poor Karl Dorrell. The Bruins' somewhat embattled coach, just three games removed from upsetting cross-town rival USC and keeping the Trojans out of the national championship game, is on the hot seat again. And that seat is about to be set ablaze. Losing 44-6 to an unranked team when you're on the cusp of the top 10 can do that to a coach. But then again, with the exception of a 10-2 2005 season that ended with a Sun Bowl victory, the ex-UCLA receiver-turned-head coach is 19-19 in his first four years in L.A. Sure, they blew out Stanford in the opener, but who hasn't done that (sorry, San Jose State)? Since then it's been a monumental struggle at home against BYU and the debacle at Utah.

Fortunately for the Bruins, they're done with the state of Utah for another year (but Mormons rejoice! They visit Provo next September!) Washington, however, poses an even more serious threat than either squad from the Great Salt State. The Huskies led No. 8 Ohio State 7-3 at halftime last week in Seattle before Washington's youth was exposed in the second half, resulting in a 33-14 Buckeyes victory. Freshman quarterback Jake Locker has looked like a speedier version of former Husky QB Mark Brunell thus far, and despite twice as many interceptions as touchdown passes, Locker is a game-changer (in the good sense) already. He's far from a finished product, for sure, but he's already leading the team in rushing despite having a solid tailback, Louis Rankin, with whom to share the backfield. Locker needs more production from his wideouts, particularly Marcel Reese, who despite leading the team in receiving yards, dropped at least three catchable passes against Ohio State. In order for UCLA to bounce back, Ben Olson has to be more careful with the football, and hand off to his stud running back, Kahlil Bell, more often.

The pick: Washington 34, UCLA 31

7. No. 4 Oklahoma (-23) at Tulsa

Friday, 8 p.m. EST, ESPN2

What's a game with a 23-point spread doing at No. 7? Look, we know Oklahoma's good. They've won their first three games by an average of 53 points. I'm impressed, you're impressed, your cleaning lady who doesn't speak English and whose perceived vision of football involves midfielders and yellow cards is impressed. But what happens when they face an offense that can move the ball up and down the field? We may find out Friday. Tulsa coach Gus Malzahn is the former Arkansas high school coach who served as the Razorbacks' innovative offensive coordinator last season before bolting (like many of the players he brought with him) to greener pastures. Malzahn's hope for brighter days took him to Tulsa, where he's the head guy already. And his offensive mind made the trek west as well. The Golden Hurricane have averaged 560 yards of offense thus far, and while hanging 35 on Louisiana-Monroe isn't going to cause many to take notice, dropping 55 on BYU will. Paul Smith has thrown eight touchdowns and completed more than 65 percent of his passes.

If there's a concern for Tulsa (outside of facing the high-powered No. 4 team in the country), it's that the Sooners won't take this game lightly. The Red River Shootout is still two weeks away, and nothing would make Bob Stoops happier than thwarting the young hotshot head coach's attack and blowing away Oklahoma's pesky in-state cousins. Tulsa's defense hasn't done much, and that could be, oh, a minor problem against a Sooner team that leads the nation in points per game and is third in total offense. But let's put it this way - Tulsa's D can't be any worse than North Texas, Miami and Utah State's units. Sam Bradford is just a freshman, and he has yet to face any adversity as a starter. What if the Golden Hurricane put up a few early scores? Anything is possible.

The pick: Oklahoma 43, Tulsa 26

6. No. 20 Texas A&M (+2.5) at Miami (Fla.)

Thursday, 7:30 p.m. EST, ESPN

Asking the Miami Hurricanes to go into Norman, Okla., and take down the Sooner machine just two games into Randy Shannon's head coaching career was a bit much to ask. But getting blown out 51-13 wasn't exactly something many saw coming either. The two victories, home wins against Marshall and Florida International, haven't been particularly impressive, but this is the one the ‘Canes need to have for Shannon to establish that his program is legitimately headed in the right direction. It seems after a brief less-than-two-game experiment with Kirby Freeman, he's resettled on Kyle Wright at quarterback, and that's a good thing - Wright is more experienced and has a better arm, though both guys are mistake-prone. The running game has been the lone saving grace on offense - Javarris James looks like he's got a chance to do great things at The U, just like his cousin Edgerrin.

The Aggies roll into Coral Gables undefeated, though not without a scare - Fresno State took A&M to three overtimes in College Station before Jorvorskie Lane bowled over the Bulldogs and led the way to victory. And that's really what A&M is all about - running the football, which they've done at the fourth-best rate in Division I through three games. Stephen McGee is capable of throwing the ball, but he's a runner first and foremost. He has Mike Goodson and Lane to join the Aggies' crowded backfield. Lane is a few years away from making some NFL fantasy football owners very jealous, as he'll be stealing goal-line carries from someone. Listed at 263 pounds but closer to 300, Lane has seven touchdowns on 44 carries. He and the Aggies will be running right at a talented Miami front seven, led by All-American Calais Campbell. McGee will have to show the ‘Canes he's capable of throwing the ball or the A&M attack will be running against nine-man fronts all night long.

The pick: Texas A&M 23, Miami 21

5. Oregon State (+12) at Arizona State

Saturday, 10 p.m. EST, No TV

Somehow this game isn't being televised, even in Arizona or Oregon, which is hard to believe considering these are two solid, middle-tier Pac-10 teams in perhaps the toughest conference in America. Oregon State had a fairly easy time against Utah in its opener before getting smoked on the scoreboard, 34-3, in a cross-country trip to Cincinnati. The Bearcats only had 229 yards of offense, but seven Beaver turnovers, including six interceptions from two different quarterbacks, made the difference. Sean Canfield appears to be the guy at QB for now, as he responded from his three-INT performance in Cincinnati by throwing for 353 yards and three TDs against an overmatched Idaho State team last week. The key for the Beavers is having stud receiver Sammie Stroughter back after the senior missed the first two weeks for personal reasons. Having Stroughter to stretch the field will open things open for tailback Yvenson Bernard, a major talent who has struggled some in the early going.

Coaching nomad Dennis Erickson is making his home in Tempe for now, and his goal is to lead the Sun Devils back to the top of the Pac-10, something they've been capable of doing recently, but haven't been able to put it all together. The offense has been excellent in the young season, with Rudy Carpenter knowing he's the no-doubt quarterback, but it's been the defense, which is leading the Pac-10 in yards allowed and points against, that has been the pleasant surprise out in the desert. Arizona State has yet to be tested, however, and Oregon State comes in having been involved in games against competition similar to itself. Look for that battle-tested mentality to make this one closer than the line, and the Beavers could win this one late.

The pick: Oregon State 28, Arizona State 22

4. No. 12 South Carolina (+16.5) at No. 2 LSU

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EST, CBS

This line seems a bit extreme considering the game features two of the 10 best scoring defenses in the country, but it's really just a testament to how feared the Bayou Bengals are right now. Blake Mitchell is back after serving a suspension to start the season, and threw three touchdowns last week. But that was against South Carolina State, and the Gamecocks struggled through portions of the win, as they did in their opener against Louisiana-Lafayette. They didn't exactly light things up against Georgia, either, but instead of the old Fun-n-Gun Spurrier teams of yesteryear, this team wins with its defense, led by star linebacker Jasper Brinkley. Last year the Gamecocks lost by a touchdown or less to Auburn, Tennessee and Arkansas, and came within a blocked field goal of knocking off eventual national champion Florida in Gainesville, so this is the year Spurrier's boys have to take the next step.

LSU has spit up and kicked out everything that's stepped on the field opposite them thus far, posting two shutouts and holding Virginia Tech to one score in what was supposed to be a titanic clash. It's all set up for the Tigers, who have a favorable schedule, a defense that's second-to-none, and an offense that gets more impressive by the week. Matt Flynn's a bit banged up? No worries, former five-star recruit Ryan Perrilloux can step in for a week. Perrilloux's stats are better than a lot of starters through the first three weeks, and while a lot of that has to do with his starting against Middle Tennessee State, the Tigers had the two previous games wrapped up so fast that he got work in those games as well. Wide receiver Early Doucet is the gamebreaker, but the Tigers can beat you in so many ways it's just a matter of which way you'd prefer to get burned. South Carolina may have this year targeted to make its next step, but to win in Baton Rouge would be a giant, giant leap.

The pick: LSU 30, South Carolina 9

3. No. 22 Georgia (+3.5) at No. 16 Alabama

Saturday, 7:45 p.m. EST, ESPN

John Parker Wilson finally looked like the quarterback he's been capable of becoming last Saturday in the Tide's 41-38 come-from-ahead then come-from-behind win over Arkansas, throwing for 327 yards and four touchdowns, including a great pass to Matt Caddell with time running out. But can he keep it up? He looked very ordinary in ‘Bama's first two wins, and running back Terry Grant had carried the team up until the win over the Hogs. Arkansas doesn't have the best defense in the world, so that certainly could have played into the offensive outburst, but perhaps now that Grant's being recognized as a difference-maker at tailback, the pressure is off Wilson. But it's certainly on Nick Saban. The lovefest with ‘Bama fans will be short-lived if he follows up last week with a loss to an inferior Georgia team.

Everyone was on the Bulldogs' bandwagon following their blowout win over Oklahoma State on the season's opening weekend. But short of Michigan, the Cowboys have to be considered one of the season's biggest early disappointments, having been blown out at Troy last weekend. Even closer to home though, Georgia followed up their opening week dominance with a stinker against South Carolina in a game that can most graciously described as a "battle of the kickers." The Bulldog offense has yet to take off, but this is perhaps the team in the SEC that has the most chance to improve from September to November due to the development of quarterback Matthew Stafford. He was great against Oklahoma State and in last week's walkover against Western Carolina, and did some good things again South Carolina despite some struggles. He'll need tailback Knowshon Moreno to continue his strong running, but the ‘Dogs offensive line should ensure the running game continues to improve. From there, it's on Stafford as Georgia will start to open things up downfield.

The pick: Alabama 23, Georgia 14

2. No. 10 Penn State (-2.5) at Michigan

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EST, ABC

Is Michigan back? Of course not. The Wolverines beat Notre Dame, a team Michigan-killer Appalachian State would likely manhandle. But a win, any win, gives them confidence. And confidence for a team as talented as Michigan is can be a decisive force. But more importantly, you know Lloyd Carr has made his team well aware all week that just like everyone else in the Big Ten, the Wolverines are 0-0 in conference. Win their next eight, and Lloyd and his boys can head back to Pasadena and experience another New Year's Day loss. Considering the Fort Knox-level of secrecy behind Michigan's football program, they're keeping quiet on whether the injured Chad Henne will be back under center this week or if it'll be freshman Ryan Mallett again. The guess here is Lloyd is playing head games with Penn State, and Mallett will take the snaps, but Michigan's chances begin and end with Mike Hart, one of the nation's leading rushers.

Penn State should win this game. But the Nittany Lions have a bit of a complex when it comes to Michigan, and they've lost eight straight against Lloyd's Boys - some when PSU featured far better talent. Their last two trips to Ann Arbor have not been without controversy, with the 2002 game hinging on a questionable out-of-bounds ruling and the 2005 contest being decided on the last play, with one second remaining, after two seconds were conspicuously put back on the clock earlier in the drive. The major problem with many of Penn State's trip to Ann Arbor has been Joe Paterno's refusal to take chances despite often superior personnel. Sure, Anthony Morelli won't be able to beat Michigan in the same way Dennis Dixon and Armanti Edwards did. But his receivers have the speed to outrun the Wolverines' secondary. Penn State should come out with four or five wide consistently, while being sure to keep tight end Andrew Quarless involved. If Austin Scott is the main focus of the offense, there's a good chance the Wolverines' turnaround will continue.

The pick: Penn State 29, Michigan 27

1. No. 21 Kentucky (+7) at Arkansas

Saturday, 6:00 p.m. EST, ESPN2

The best quarterback in the country against the best running back in the land? Could well be in what should be quite an offensive showcase. Both teams are coming off heart-stopping, last-second decisions last week, with Wildcats QB Andre Woodson throwing a touchdown with 20 seconds to play for the win, and Arkansas suffering an Alabama TD pass with less time than that. But whereas the Wildcats were at home in the Bluegrass State and Arkansas was in hostile ‘Bama territory, but now it's Kentucky marching into enemy turf. Beating their in-state rivals was big, but going on the road to win against an SEC team like Arkansas would mean Rich Brooks' team has truly arrived. Woodson and underrated running back Rafael Little should be able to put up points, but will they be able to stop Darren McFadden and Felix Jones?

Sure, it hurts to lose your SEC opener, as the Razorbacks did in Tuscaloosa last week, especially with less than 30 seconds to play. But all things considered, Houston Nutt's team could have folded when they were down 21-0 (and nearly 28-0) early in the second quarter. Instead, they fought back, McFadden showed why he's the best skill-position player in America, and they scored, at one point, 28 unanswered to take a 38-31 lead. Casey Dick's stats weren't great, but he was also instrumental in the comeback, throwing three touchdowns. If Dick can hang onto the ball and hit open receivers every now and then, McFadden and Jones will be able to do the rest. The defense? It's a work in progress. Nutt is talking about making changes in the secondary after last week, but regardless of what he does, he's going to be playing with six defensive backs quite a bit considering Kentucky's wide open attack. Points won't be at a premium in this one; whether it lives up to the theatrics of both team's games last weekend remains to be seen. But don't be a bit surprised if it does.

The pick: Arkansas 37, Kentucky 30

Bonus locks of the week:

Georgia Tech (-3.5) over Virginia

Purdue (-13.5) over Minnesota

Oregon State (+12) over Arizona State

September 20, 2007  08:19 PM ET

good blog

September 20, 2007  08:28 PM ET

No, not good.

GREAT.

Good, solid, logical picks. In depth details and breakdowns.

September 20, 2007  08:36 PM ET

I'd take the Michigan versus Penn State game. It could have a huge affect for the Big Ten standings at the end of the year, while the Arkansas Kentucky game not so much because most people believe it will be LSU and Florida once again.

 
September 20, 2007  10:41 PM ET

GO TIGERS!!!

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