strangedavid's Blog
  • 01:51 PM ET  09.28
Views
1572
Comments
1

Normally, I post my predictions on a different website... but you can check out past week's results if you're interested at http://strangedavid.com/fbpicks/2007week01. 

Here are my predictions for Week 4.

Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-2)

My knee-jerk reaction is to hand this game to the Ravens outright; they've been a better team than the Browns consistently for a few years. However, the Ravens have been suffering this year from nagging injuries to key players, and their two wins were just barely scraped out. I haven't researched this, but I'm guessing the Ravens must be getting older; they wear out quicker. Last week, they allowed 17 points to Arizona in the fourth quarter before Kyle Boller ran a 52-yard series to set up the last-second 46-yard Stover field goal. Meanwhile, the Browns have been radically inconsistent, racking up an amazing 51 points against Cincinnati's awful defense, but losing a tight game to Oakland the week after. This should be a closer game than it would have been last year... but the Ravens still win.

Baltimore 21, Cleveland 20

 

St. Louis Rams (0-3) at Dallas Cowboys (3-0)

Steven Jackson is out. Orlando Pace is out. Mark Setterstrom is out. Marc Bulger has cracked ribs. The only team St. Louis might have a chance at beating this weekend is Notre Dame. (By the way, which is a better headline: Irish Creamed or Notre Doomed?)

Dallas 42, St. Louis 10 -- and only that because I'm feeling generous

 

Chicago Bears (1-2) at Detroit Lions (2-1)

Yes, Griese is an improvement over Grossman on paper. But a divisional road game with a new first-stringer at the helm, with injuries to several important defensive players? Mike Brown and Dusty Dvoracek (seriously -- Dusty Dvoracek! If I wrote that name into a novel, it'd be scrutinized) are out for the season, and there are injuries to Briggs, Vasher, and Harris. You remember when Kitna said that he thought he could win at least 10 games this season and pass for over 5,000 yards? Well, if the final 13 games follow the pattern of the first 3 (unlikely, sure, but roll with it), Kitna could have 10 or 11 wins and 5,227 yards. This is really going to come down to whether or not the Bears' dinged-up defense can make a stand against a surprisingly good Detroit offense. (Did I just write "good," "Detroit," and "offense" in the same sentence? Isn't that one of the seven signs of the Apocalypse?) Here's the biggest reason that I think this one is going to shake up the division: in his two games against the Bears last season, Kitna had no interceptions, three touchdowns, and a passer rating of almost 100. He knows how to play against Chicago.

Detroit 28, Chicago 20

 

New York Jets (1-2) at Buffalo Bills (0-3)

Watch Marshawn Lynch this week, Bills fans. The Jets are awful against the run. However, his efforts won't be enough to elevate this team past their glaring weaknesses on defense (all exacerbated by injuries to the best defensive players).

New York Jets 31, Buffalo 21

 

Houston Texans (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (0-3)

People keep talking about Matt Schaub taking revenge on his previous team. Revenge? For what? For paying him good money for four years to be the best backup in the league, giving him time to learn? For trading him to a team where he had an immediate opportunity to be a starter, and thinking so highly of him that they demanded first- and third-round draft picks in exchange? The Falcons did right by Schaub, and it's only due to one man's idiocy that the Falcons are stuck with a floundering Joey Harrington. And even that doesn't excuse the Falcons' inability to get a win -- the team is just playing badly all around. Admittedly, the Texans are without Andre Johnson, and they may be without both Ahman Green and Ron Dayne. But in a chess game match like this, you have to give the nod to a team with Gary Kubiak as head coach instead of Bobby Petrino, whose only prior NFL experience is a brief stint as quarterbacks coach and then offensive coordinator of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Houston 24, Atlanta 13

 

Oakland Raiders (1-2) at Miami Dolphins (0-3)

Great stat for the Raiders: LaMont Jordan, the running back who was expected to become a role-play type of backup this year, had only 508 total yards last season. In the last game, he had 121 yards; in the three games so far, he has 471 yards. That's the most in the AFC -- which includes backs like LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, and Joe Addai. Dominic Rhodes is expected to return next week after his suspension ends, but he may be facing the backup role he was trying to avoid in Indianapolis. (Don't feel too bad for him -- they'll be paying him like a starter regardless.) Neither team is very good, but I just have a feeling that the Raiders are a little bit more organized.

Oakland 20, Miami 17

 

Green Bay Packers (3-0) at Minnesota Vikings (1-2)

The Vikings' horrible passing game is no match for the Packers' pass defense. The Packers' fledgling running back platoon isn't going to stand a chance against the Vikings' run stuffers. So Minnesota will rely on Adrian Peterson; Green Bay will respond by stacking the box. Green Bay will rely on Brett Favre; Minnesota will respond by researching voodoo and ritual sacrifices. (Actually, the Minnesota pass defense is pretty decent, with 11 sacks and five interceptions, ranking in the top three or four in each category. But Favre can win this one just by wearing them down.)

Green Bay 24, Minnesota 13

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0) at Arizona Cardinals (1-2)

The Wunderkind meets the Wiz. How awesome is it that this game falls into the schedule this year? I'm intrigued by Whisenhunt's decision to "platoon" his quarterbacks; I've long wondered if anyone has considered doing this, or if it's too dangerous to the egos of those who play the position. I think Warner will take any playing time they give him, but this can't be good for Leinart's confidence. Bottom line: if the Steelers can dominate the 49ers the way they did, the Cards shouldn't give them too many problems.

Pittsburgh 28, Arizona 19

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at Carolina Panthers (2-1)

Here are the problems the Panthers are facing: Jake Delhomme is not likely to play; Tampa Bay is only allowing 12.3 points per game; Jeff Garcia has been playing like a man possessed (presumably by an entity that knows how to play some good ball); Carolina has not intercepted a ball, and Garcia hasn't been intercepted; Carolina has only two sacks; they can't seem to get a pass rush going; and Dan Morgan is probably not playing. As much as I hate to admit it, it looks like the Bucs are making a bit of a comeback.

Tampa Bay 20, Carolina 13

 

Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (2-1)

So far, I've given the win to seven visiting teams out of the nine games that I've reviewed. That's pretty unlikely. That, plus the fact that Frank Gore seems to have the Hawks' number, is helping me push this prediction to the Niners. Also, it seems to me that when Alexander plays hurt, he plays badly.

San Francisco 23, Seattle 20

 

Denver Broncos (2-1) at Indianapolis Colts (3-0)

The Broncos eked out wins against Buffalo and Oakland -- two teams they should have soundly whupped, based on personnel. Against the Jaguars, they only managed 47 yards rushing. Jay Cutler has a sprained ankle but will probably play; John Lynch has a strained groin, and may be on the bench. Here's the way I see this going down: Champ Bailey covers Marvin Harrison (because Bailey is the best at shutting down route-runners like Harrison); Dre Bly covers Reggie Wayne (Bly's risk-taking style is better suited for a player like Wayne, who is also a gambler); and the Broncos stack the box to try to contain Addai (especially considering they haven't stopped the run well yet all year). This should leave Dallas Clark and/or Ben Utecht wide open for great stretches of the game. Anthony Gonzalez may also see some action, to help him learn not to drop the ball.

Indianapolis 31, Denver 17

 

Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) at San Diego Chargers (1-2)

Larry Johnson and LaDainian Tomlinson -- inarguably the two best running backs in the league last year -- have fewer combined rushing yards than 11 other individual players. Now, admittedly, Tomlinson has faced the stingy defenses of the Bears, the Patriots, and the Packers. And Johnson has faced the Texans, the Bears, and the Vikings. None of those are teams that it's easy to run against. LT actually has the 45th-ranked yards-per-carry in the league -- baffling. Although I'd like to point at Norv Turner as the doomwright of the Chargers, the fact is that's a team that tends to start slow. In addition, the Chargers are 9th in the league at run defense (although this could also be attributed to the weak run games of the Bears and Packers, and the lack of need for a run game from the Pats), but the Chiefs are 18th. This should be the game where LT finally looks like LT.

San Diego 28, Kansas City 14

 

Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at New York Giants (1-2)

The Giants' secondary will keep the Eagles in the game. The Eagles' secondary will keep the Giants in the game. When it's all said and done, though, I gotta go with the Eagles.

Philadelphia 31, New York Giants 24

 

New England Patriots (3-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)

The only thing that the Bengals have going for them in this game is the fact that Palmer knows how to attack, and the Patriots have yet to stop any opponents that get inside the red zone. Of course, their opponents have only gotten into the red zone five times, so it'll take some superhuman play from Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh to make that happen.

New England 42, Cincinnati 20

 

Bye week: Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1), Tennessee Titans (2-1), New Orleans Saints (0-3), Washington Redskins (2-1)

 

 
September 28, 2007  04:01 PM ET

Well, we picked a FEW games differently this time. But our scores are so similar... stop thinking like me, it's dangerous.

Comment

Remember to keep your posts clean. Profanity will get filtered, and offensive comments will be removed.


Start Your Own Blog

Start Now
Send us feedback about the new site here Send us feedback about the new site here

Stub Hub

The 2008 schedule has been released. Search for tickets!

Truth & Rumors

MOST POPULAR

  1. 1
    Carson: Giants should bring Plaxico back
    Views
    8292
    Comments
    2465
  2. 2
    Giants open to Plaxico return
    Views
    4210
    Comments
    1526
  3. 3
    What is Sabathia waiting for?
    Views
    14805
    Comments
    1185
  4. 4
    Pedroia could have held out for more
    Views
    2518
    Comments
    724
  5. 5
    How Horns can still win national championship
    Views
    4435
    Comments
    115

Most Active Users

Comments + Blog Posts + Throwdowns

  1. 1
    _ _ _ _ _
  2. 2
    bcoltrinari
  3. 3
    Epoch1
  4. 4
    Dyhard: Big 10/ACC Challenge
  5. 5
    Vice President Corky

Message Boards

  1. NCAAF > General NCAAF

    Arbitraguer vs. Dog poop
    Views
    451
    Replies
    61
  2. NCAAF > General NCAAF

    Number 1 Florida favored by 10…
    Views
    344
    Replies
    39
  3. MMA > Fight Club

    Where does Torres stack up?
    Views
    304
    Replies
    6

Blogs