There are few mysteries left in the world. With the rapid increase of technology, man is learning about things he couldn’t even fathom just 10 years ago. In the world of Sports, there are fewer mysteries still thanks to the 24-7 coverage. We know everything we ever wanted to know about players…but that’s why Sundays are special…because no matter how much you think you know, something always comes along and surprises you. Since our picks were almost identical this week…because both Dan (Dan’s Picks) and I (Josh’s Picks) think we know everything…we had to find a different mystery to debate….
And our focus turned to the world of the bizarre. This weekend, there are 3 gentleman named Trent starting at QB in the NFL…an occurrence we might never see again…and so, we had to tackle the issue of…
Will Trent Green, Trent Dilfer or Trent Edwards have the better game this weekend?
Of the three Trents starting this week, Green, Edwards, and Dilfer, I think Green will perform the best, at least in terms of passer rating. All three are facing fearsome defenses, and I doubt any of them will win, but I think only Green will manage a 60.0 or better. Here's why:
1) He has the most game experience with his current receivers, having started for them for four weeks now.
2) He has better receivers than Dilfer and a better running back than either.
3) Looking at the defenses each is facing, Dallas (Edwards' opponent) defends the pass best by far. Baltimore (vs. Dilfer) and Houston (vs. Green) are similar in nearly every category except for completion percentage. Houston is allowing its opponents to complete nearly 70% of their passes, while Baltimore and Dallas are lingering around 55%. Completion percentage is a major factor in passer rating.
4) Houston is much less likely than Dallas to blow out an opponent, which means it's doubtful that Green will have many must-pass situations where he might force something and make a mistake. The Dolphins should be able to count on the run for much of the game.
I think Edwards will do better than Dilfer, whom Brian Billick knows all too well. I think the Ravens' defense is going to come out hungry and devour Dilfer and the 49ers' passing game. Edwards, on the other hand, will make rookie mistakes but show some flashes of talent as well.
That's it for starters - what you got?
Let me first say, this topic cracks me up. From the moment you proposed it, I started laughing...and now...well, I can't get Swingers lines out of my head. That's right, I hear the name "Trent" and all I can picture is Vince Vaughn saying....
"You know what you are? You're like a big bear with claws and with fangs... "
Sorry, that movie is imprinted on my brain...it was the "Getting ready to go out movie" for my buddies and I in college. Let's just say, we wore through the VHS, and the DVD...but man, it still makes me laugh.
But that's not what we're talking about. No, we're talking about 3 scrubs...scratch that...1 rook, and 2 Veterans on the tail end of their careers...who all happen to be named Trent...and happen to be starting this week. And, since you're sore about Seattle whooping San Fran last week, you've decided to cripple me with the dreaded passer rating stat...a stat whose perfect score it 158.3...what? Why would you devise a stat with that as the perfect score? Ridiculous.
But swords have been drawn, and you dance with the one that brought you...or something like that...
I'm going with Mr. Edwards, the rook.
He looked good in his first pro start last week, found the open receivers, and didn't force the ball. Of the 3 he's got the best WR playing for him in Lee Evans. Sorry, the Niners have no WR talent, and the Dolphins have Chris Chambers...I'll take Lee over him everyday.
Plus, Dallas' D is very soft against the pass. They got a free pass last week because they were playing the Rams (injured line, banged up QB...wait why did I pick them this week?) and the Bears self destructed against them in the worst way. But if you watch the, the CBs give a HUGE cushion to the WRs, and after you pick on them with short stuff...you can burn them deep. For evidence on this, see the Giants game.
Edwards also showed he had good awareness last week, slide in the pocket, and got rid of the ball quickly when he had too...Dallas has a decent pass rush, so this will be important.
As for the other stiffs...I mean Trents...well...let's just agree that Dilfer is not going to have a fun day, and leave him out of this.
As for Green...Houston is tied for 6th in the NFL in sacks. Their front seven is very solid, and the Dolphins line is not...so expect the brittle Green to be hit, or chased...or both. Every D Coordinator will tell you the secret to lowering completion percentage, is to get pressure on the QB. Hard to throw a good pass when you have a 280 pound lineman after you.
A final thought for you...so far this season, Green has a 72.9 QB rating...lowest in the AFC...and Trent Edwards has a 76....
Sure, Dallas' pass defense isn't top 10 in yardage surrendered (but it is top 15), but they're tied for first in interceptions, and their TD/ratio over the past three weeks is 2/8. Since we're arguing passer rating, that's kind of a killer. Trent Green played Dallas in week 2, and he's got something to say about how "soft" that pass defense is. Sure he racked up 287 yards and 2 TDs, but he had to throw 40 times to do it. That with his 4 INTs gave him a 57.0 passer rating.
Trent Edwards did look good last week; the completion percentage was particularly impressive. But that was against the Jets, who have virtually no pass rush (fewest sacks in the conference), and whose opponents have averaged a 70.9 completion percentage, 2nd worst in the NFL. And while his performance was good overall, he did throw half of the interceptions the Jets have gotten all season in one game (that's right, one out of two).
I am worried about the pass rush Green will be facing. But in the past two games, Ronnie Brown has emerged as a serious threat, as a runner and receiver, and he'll draw a lot more attention than he did in earlier weeks. And he'll provide a nice emergency outlet for Green, and those short, easy completions will pad his passer rating.
You're right, Trent Green's numbers against Dallas were ugly...but his numbers from this year aren't much better. When it comes to Defense, it helps to play a bad offense. Yes, that was channeled from my inner Yogi Berra. The Boys have played 3 terrible offenses the last 3 weeks...
The Dolphins - Ronnie Brown has looked better, but they are still 17th in yards and 19th in points.
The Bears - Do I need to go into detail here?
The Rams - Due to injuries, this team is not firing on all cylinders...no O-line...Bulger at 50%...and not Steven Jackson....ugly.
And this is not to say that the Bills are a high powered attack...but from watching them last week, the ingredients are there. And while I don't think they are going to beat the Boys, I think they're going to give them a little more game than Dallas is expecting.
This last summer, my wife, daughter and I did a lot of traveling. Had to attend a funeral, and had to scout out our new living area. Back in Seattle we had this Mercury Mystique...a decent car, not one I would wish on anyone, but it got us from here to there. Every trip we took we rented a car...it was amazing how great the rental cars drove....but it wasn't until I went back to the old car that I realized just how much nicer the rental car was. Sure it wasn't mine, didn't have to worry about up keep...but for a week of driving, I'd take a rental car over that hunk of Mystique.
Is one of us supposed to be a Mystique in this equation?
Yes, Trent Green is the Mystique. He's been around forever, just sitting in the drive way. He had his day, and now he's just sort of getting you from place to place...you don't realize there is anything wrong with what he's doing cause you're use to what he does...but then Trent Edwards comes along...and you realize, wow, that's what a Trent should look like!
But go ahead and ride it out in the Mystique, see how far that gets you...
Oh, believe me, if the Dolphins could rent Trent Edwards for a week and play him against Houston, he'd do better than Green will. (Hey, couldn't they have drafted him instead of John Beck? Yes, yes they could.) But I still say that Dallas has the best pass defense of the three Trents' opponents.
Hey, when John Beck takes over the starting job in Miami, I hope Green sticks around as a mentor. I want to be able to make jokes about the counsel of Trent.
You say his rating vs. Dallas wasn't much worse than the rest of his season. Which is true, if we're talking about averages. But check this out, especially if you like patterns.
Trent Green's passer rating by week:
week 1, on the road: 87.5
week 2, at home: 57.0
week 3, on the road: 89.8
week 4, at home: 55.1
week 5, on the road: ???
Maybe it's the home crowd who can't forgive a quarterback for not being Dan Marino, or maybe it's just a tendency to rebound after a bad performance or suck after a decent performance, but either way, the pattern is established.
Also, keep in mind that Houston is without its most potent offensive weapon, Andre Johnson. Their #1 running back is also injured. While Schaub has done well spreading the ball around, it hasn't been enough to get them a win thus far. It's safe to say Houston won't be running away with the game at halftime--the offense isn't potent enough. Dallas very well could be, forcing Edwards to put the ball in the air when he doesn't want to. And that's where Anthony Henry gets interceptions.
Check this out - I can do off-the-wall metaphors too:
A couple of times, I've had a particularly rough shaving job in front of me, and my razor is already getting dull. So I have a choice--I can use a fresh, new one, or I can send the old one into battle one last time. I've found that when I use the new one, I'm far more likely to nick myself. It does more harm than good. It's better to gradually break in the new one, starting with an easier workload.
So I give the old razor the ugly job, get through it, and while it takes longer and the razor burn is worse, I get away nick-free.
Think of the razor burn as the simple pain of dealing with a loss. And you're going to get razor burn with the new blade too, it just won't be quite as bad. But you get the nicks - actual cuts in your skin that scab over and leave you with little sets of parallel lines all over your face. Those are the costly mistakes that do more lasting damage.
Think of the nerve endings on your face as the fans. If you get bad razor burn, it's just going to make the face cry out for a new razor. If you're getting nicked too much, the face second-guesses this new razor and starts wondering if maybe that new Gilette Fusion would be better, but then you have to install a whole new system.
Both Buffalo and Miami have rough shaving jobs ahead of them this Sunday; one is using a new razor, one is using a well-worn one that's getting dull. Both will lose, but one will be much less ugly and painful.
How do you like them apple strudels?
Mmmmmmm....apple strudel....man, that sounds great right now....mmmmmm......can we put this debate on hold while I get me some strudel? Wait, that's the magic of the internet....
First, let me welcome you to the obscure analogies club. You get a membership card, t-shirt that says, "One time in college..." and after 10 obscure analogies you're eligible for a free trip to Cancun, you just have to listen to a 3 hours Time Share pitch. It's a great club...although stay away from Madden, he loves pushing the Time Shares...
Second, we've been over this before Dan...trends are only valid if they support my opinion. Trends in all other cases are worthless and made to be broken. And no pulling out a obscure amendmant this time, you already used that get out of jail free card.
And while I look forward to the counsel of Trent jokes...I love obscure references like that...don't forget the ever furtile "John Beck, only 2 years Trent Green's junior..." style jokes as well. Check the stats, Beck is old for a rook...younger than me, but old for a rook.
Wait, what were we debating? Between the apple strudel and John Beck jokes I lost track...
Right, we're debating your choice of razors...sorry...Trents.
This whole thing boils down to just one thing...
You're taking the old reliable, and I'm gambling on the new.
You know what you're going to get from Trent...and the trend you stated above (which of course will fall apart this week) indicates we're looking at a rating in the 80s. But that's his ceiling...he's not going to do any more at this point of his career.
There is a big chance Edwards could blow up in my face...he could through 10 passes into the ground, call it a night and walk away with a 39.5...by the way, who came up these stats? Just ridiculous...perfect score of 158.3...and 39.5...I just don't get it.....
But Edwards also has the potential to roll out a huge game on his first time in the big game. National audience, team coming off a big win...overly confident Dallas squad (Before Boys fans jump on me, I'm pontificating here)...it could be a huge break out game...and that's what I'm gambling on.
Yep, the stats aren't there to back me up, and come Tuesday I might have egg dripping from my nose...but it will be worth the ride...
And yes, with the absence of fact, I went for the, "Well, you're a wuss" approach...back me into a corner...
First, I have to say I hate passer rating too, since everything's weighed against completions and it's possible to lead the league in passer rating after throwing one pass, but there is one nice thing about it. If you use a standard grading scale on percentage points in school, it fits nicely. Anything above 100 is an A+ - you got extra credit. 95? A. 85? B. 75? C. 65? D. Anything below a 60? F. And I think that's what they had in mind when they designed it. Still, it's a flawed system.
I've said my piece, and I'm looking forward to that Cancun trip. And now, to sum up, a quote from Swingers…
Trent: Oh Mikey you don't want all that "Pirates Of The Caribbean" horses**t, or the "Rock and Roll Grunge Tip". Guys like you and me gotta kick it here, old school.
Trent Green, Old School.
Well, at least we agree on something…besides all our picks…the QB rating is a whacked rating system. But as for the Trents..after Edwards blows up this week….
Trent: Our baby's all grown up.
And with that, we’ll sign off…another Friday debate is in the books…did we learn anything? Doubtful. But we got to share some laughs and thoughts with the world…even if the only that read this is our mothers. And before someone jumps on us for Plagiarizing Swingers…let the King of Trents explain it…Trent: Everybody steals from everybody, that's Hollywood.