Check out my website - http://www.nobcs.net/

I posted my first Scenario Generator two weeks ago, but things have definitely changed since then.  Also, the release of the first BCS rankings has cleared a few things up.  So, here is my updated Scenario Generator:

1.  Ohio State (30%) - Must beat 5 Expected Bowl (EB) teams, the hardest being Michigan on the road.  They control their own destiny.

2.  South Florida (25%) - Must beat 4 EB teams, the hardest being Louisville at home.  They will likely need an losses from LSU and BC.

3.  Boston College (20%) - Must beat 5 EB teams, the hardest being VA Tech on the road.  They probably control their own destiny, but it would be close.

4.  LSU (30%) - Must beat 3 EB teams, the hardest being the SEC East Champ.  They must win out and rely on the computer rankings in order to jump ahead of BC.

5.  Oklahoma (23%) - Must beat 3 EB teams, the hardest being the Big 12 North Champ.  They are still sitting pretty with a relatively easy schedule ahead.

6.  South Carolina (8%) - Must beat 4 EB teams, the hardest being the SEC West Champ.  They still have too many tough games remaining, especially with a potential rematch with LSU.

7.  Kentucky (5%) - Must beat 5 EB teams, the hardest being the SEC West Champ.  Their defense will be their pitfall.

8.  Arizona St (5%) - Must beat 4 EB teams, the hardest being Oregon on the road.  The meat of their schedule is still ahead.

9.  West Virginia (13%) - Must beat 5 EB teams, the hardest being Louisville at home.  Outside of the top 5, WVU clearly has the best chance of sneaking in.

10. Oregon (10%) - Must beat 4 EB teams, the hardest being USC at home.  They have injuries and USC to deal with.

11. Va Tech (5%) - Must beat 6 EB teams, the hardest being BC at home.  Will there offense ever start clicking?

12. Cal (10%) - Must beat 3 EB teams, the hardest being USC at home.  They aren't completely out of the picture.

13. Kansas (2%) - Must beat 5 EB teams, the hardest being the Big 12 South Champ.  How are they still unbeaten?

14. USC (10%) - Must beat 5 EB teams, the hardest being Oregon on the road.  The talent is there, but can they put things back together? 

16. Mizzou (1%) - Must beat 6 EB teams, the hardest being the Big 12 South Champ.  I have a hard time even listing them here.

18. Hawaii (2%) - Must beat 3 EB teams, the hardest being Boise State at home.  Even if they go undefeated, things would have to be extremely crazy for them to make it.

I left a 1% chance for any two-loss team.  The total is 200% to account for 2 teams playing in the championship game.