FanNation - The Republic of Sport

     Imagine if there was only one week available to hype the Super Bowl, instead of the usual two. At least the game would be played before we could tire of the promotional and analytic overload.

     Come Sunday afternoon at 4:15 p.m. EST, we'll be good and ready. Primed just right. Enough pressure and heat in the kettle to begin lifting the lid. If you're playing Madden, the kick power is stopped right at the top.

     Patriots, 8-0. Colts, 7-0. Let's play. I'll be vicariously in Indy, live-blogging it on SI.com.

     My betting advice, since I'm not of the school that the Pats are going to make a blowout of this: Don't lay your rent on the over.

     I'm not so sure this game plays into the 30s or 40s, as many pigskin pundits are saying this week, for two reasons:

     * We're underestimating the defenses. The Patriots had been giving up some decent yardage and points, but snapped to attention against the Redskins, assisted by the return of Richard Seymour. This unit is as healthy as it's ever been, and picking on the relatively undersized cornerbacks isn't exactly stealing candy from a baby thanks to an intense pass rush (picking up a blitzing Mike Vrabel probably burned plenty of Colts offensive prep time this week). The Colts come off dominating defensive performances against the Jaguars and Panthers, and proved they can adjust - after an end zone interception foiled their bid to go up 14-3 in the second quarter, the Panthers never got another sniff of scoring position.

     * An elaborate game of keepaway. Carolina took more than 10 minutes on its opening touchdown drive, realizing the importance of keeping Peyton Manning off the field. In the second half of last year's AFC title game, the Pats learned a painful lesson about failure to minimize the Colts' possession time. And Indianapolis probably looks at Tom Brady in the same way. Once the Pats' offense gets sufficient reps, it kills.

    This could be as few as an eight-possession game for both teams. How am I picking a winner? By getting a little esoteric: the Pats are just too good a team for the Colts to beat four straight games.

    PATRIOTS 30, COLTS 27.

    Before moving on to the other games, a word about this whole running-up-the-score controversy.

    It's a lot of garbage. Bill Belichick is not a popular guy right now, so critics among the media, coaches and players are in full attack mode about the margin of victory all season, and in particular, the 52 points hung on Washington. I will grant the opposition its belief that Brady is kept in games too long (as a Pats fan, I tell my TV to get Brady out of the game - I feared the possibility of a cheap shot by a frustrated defender even before Michael Wilbon essentially sanctioned a kneecapping this week).

    But what the bleep is Belichick supposed to do on fourth-and-2 in scoring position? You can't tell your reserves not to score. Hoodie needs to see what backup QB Matt Cassel can do, whether or not he can make plays when he needs to. Historically, coaches who kick the field goal in that situation also get trashed for running up the score.

    If I'm coaching in that situation, my main concern is to run down the clock and get my team off the field ASAP. I don't care about the points, really. I want another set of downs. If I'm coaching the team being blown out, I would be more insulted if opposing offensive players took dives to avoid scoring.

    On to the picks (10-10 last week - aaaaarrrrrgh!, 101-59 for the season):

    BILLS 20, BENGALS 17: Buffalo at .500? Believe it. The Cincy offense isn't so fearsome anymore. 

    LIONS 24, BRONCOS 16: If Detroit gets to 6-2, Jon Kitna can wear an Edsel grill to the Ford clan's next costume party and get away with it.

    CHIEFS 19, PACKERS 17: KC gets no style points, but methinks the Monday night team on the road rule comes into play here.

    CHARGERS 31, VIKINGS 21: Tomlinson! Peterson! Better check the warranty on the Metrodome's carpet.

    SAINTS 21, JAGUARS 20: The Saints go marching back into NFC South contention. Nobody's exactly seized that division by the throat.

    REDSKINS 23, JETS 10: Just what the doctor ordered for the battered and bruised Skins.

    BUCCANEERS 20, CARDINALS 15: Fraud alert goes up if Tampa Bay loses this one.

    TITANS 17, PANTHERS 13: I trust Vince Young to throw for more than 42 yards this week.

    49ers 15, FALCONS 13: As a former co-worker would say, here's your WGAF Game of the Week.

    BROWNS 23, SEAHAWKS 16: Because I don't believe in Seattle on the road anymore.

    RAIDERS 16, TEXANS 10: Really, if Sage Rosenfels offered more than the once-a-year big fourth quarter, wouldn;t he be starting somewhere else by now?

    COWBOYS 27, EAGLES 20: Listen, Tony Romo, Brady gets the actresses and models. You stick with the country divas, new $67 million deal and all, mmmmkay?

    STEELERS 26, RAVENS 13: The Men of Steel: dominant at home, quite ordinary on the road.

    And in college:

    LSU 20, ALABAMA 13: The Nick Saban Bowl promises to be pretty intense, but wait until he returns to Baton Rouge next year.

    ARIZONA STATE 23, OREGON 22: What in the name of Jake Plummer and Pat Tillman are the Sun Devils doing flirting with another unbeaten regular season?

    OHIO STATE 20, WISCONSIN 16: The Buckeyes have had a tough time with the Cheeseheads in recent years, so curb your enthusiasm for OSU-Michigan two more weeks if you can.

    BOSTON COLLEGE 24, FLORIDA STATE 20: What Matt Ryan did in the last four minutes at Virginia Tech is precisely what wins a Heisman.

    OKLAHOMA 34, TEXAS A&M 13: Somewhere in Dennis Franchione's near future is a trip to Kinko's.

    KANSAS 30, NEBRASKA 25: The Jayhawks are favored in this matchup for the first time since Congress passed the Kansas-Nebraska Act. Well, since Gale Sayers' day, anyway.