College Football Top 25 Talk - Week 10 | Sundevil's Blog

Another week of football in the books and aside from one major upset, all the top teams held serve. Ohio State just keeps rolling along now, and Kansas announced their presence with authority. Some of the other games were won by very slim margins, however. Instead of traveling to a game this week, I decided to stay home and watch the games on TV. The teams that won those close games showed a lot of team character. They had to overcome hostile crowds, mistakes, and slow starts to come out on top.

These rankings are a little more scientific. I devised a simple formula for each team which was (2 X wins X defeated opponent wins) - (losses X defeated by opponent losses). For teams that beat a Division 1-AA team, the win did not count and is not reflected in the record. And, for teams that lost to a 1-AA team, they were credited with a loss to the worst team in D-1.

Team-record (prior week) Points

1. Ohio State (9-0) (1) 666
2. Oregon (8-1) (3) 653
3. LSU (8-1) (2) 605
4. Oklahoma (8-1) (5) 539
5. Michigan (8-2) (8) 492
6. Virginia (8-2) (10) 478
7. Kansas (8-0) (7) 464
8. Texas (8-2) (11) 454
9. Arizona State (8-1) (3) 447
10. Missouri (7-1) (13) 377
11. Boston College (7-1) (6) 375
12. Penn State (7-3) (17) 363
13. Boise State (7-1) (14) 344
14. Connecticut (7-1) (16) 320
15. Georgia (6-2) (21) 310
16. West Virginia (7-1) (9) 305
17. Illinois (6-3) (20) 288
18. Virginia Tech (6-2) (--) 272
19. Florida (6-3) (--) 270
20. California (6-3) (--) 261
21. Tennessee (6-3) (25) 261
22. Auburn (6-3) (12) 252
23. Clemson (6-2) (--) 240
24. USC (7-2) (--) 238
25. Florida State (6-3) (--) 237

Dropping out was Wisconsin, South Florida, Purdue, Wake Forest, Kentucky, Alabama.

And the Bottom Five

1. Northern Illinois (1-8) (1) -360
2. Idaho (0-9) (2) -360
3. Florida International (0-9) (--) -306
4. Utah State (0-9) (5) -297
5. Minnesota (1-9) (--) -296

Now to rank the conferences the same way using average wins & losses from each team. I don't agree with my #1 ranking, and I think the SEC will finish #1 before the end of the year. But, give props to the Mt. West for being the strongest mid-major.

1. Big Ten (5.6 - 3.8) 187.5
2. SEC (5.2 - 3.3) 179.8
3. Big 12 (5.3 - 3.8) 169.6
4. PAC 10 (5.0 - 3.9) 144.4
5. Big East (4.8 - 3.4) 131.1
6. ACC (4.8 - 3.8) 124.8
7. Mt. West (4.1 - 4.3) 44.3
8. WAC (3.2 - 4.8) -39.7
9. Conf USA (3.2 - 5.3) -61.6
10. Independent (2.3 - 5.3) -70.9
11. MAC (3.5 - 5.6) -74.9
12. Sun Belt (3.0 - 5.9) -97.6

Comments (4) Add A Comment

November 4, 2007 01:31 PM ET

Report Abuse | QUOTE

The loss to CAL didn't hurt Oregon?
What in the world is CAL doing there?

Your program is too simple - I've made one too. Quality wins MUST matter and point margin to a lesser degree.
I see 3 teams in your top 25 that LSU beat but that means nothing to your program.

Your program has a exponential effect on the number of games played.
a 9-0 team vrs 8-0 team would get twice the points in the initial calc.
ie: 18 vrs 16
and then that is multiplied by another factor say 40
and the two end up a whopping 80 points difference.

From your calculations I get Oregon 735 - LSU 543

Michigan #5 ??????

Conf. Non-conf win % Top 25 win %

SEC 88 49
Big-East 72 66
Big-10 81 39
ACC 72 46
PAC-10 72 36
Big 12 77 30

LSUBest

Total Comments (189)

November 4, 2007 04:58 PM ET

I noticed the exponential factor this week when I did the conference totals for the first time. This is why I have Michigan and Penn State overrated.

The Big Ten teams have two more games left and end the season in two weeks. Other conferences have four games left, so they will leap-frog the others if they keep winning. Hawaii and West Virginia are good examples here. If they win, they will move up alot at the end.

By the end of the season, everybody will have 12 games (fewer if they schedule cupcakes), so it will be equal footing.

And on the margin of victory thing, after watching the games this week, I was more impressed with the close wins than the blowouts. In a close win, every play matters and it shows great character. You would think an LSU fan would agree after the character they showed by going into Tuscaloosa and pulling that one out. Or, how about 5-5 on 4th down against Florida. That is more impressive than blowing out some cupcake by 40.

Also, as an LSU guy, get ready for the 1-loss team argument. Who really is more deserving?

Oregon, who only lost to Cal but beat ASU and USC.
LSU, who only lost to Kentucky but beat Florida and Virginia Tech.
West Virginia, who only lost to South Florida, but beat Rutgers
Oklahoma, who only lost to Colorado but beat Texas.
(Insert playoff argument here)

Thanks for the comment. Hopefully, you posted your top-25, I want to see how your formula turned out.