I've been hearing a lot of people saying that the Packers are a better team than the Cowboys, that the Packers will win when the two play. That is entirely untrue, and I am sick of hearing it. These people aren't the majority, but there are enough of them to piss me off. So here is a simple breakdown, of FACT ONLY, showing WHY the Cowboys will win. First, I'll go through stats, and then I'll go through a positional breakdown as best I can without bias. If you disagree, feel free to comment, but READ before you b*tch... please...
Cowboys- 2nd in total yards per game, second in points scored per game, third in passing yards per game, tenth in rushing yards per game, THIRD in yards per carry average, FIRST in yards per play.
Packers- 5th in total yards per game, tenth in scoring per game, second in passing yards per game, 32nd in rushing yards per game, 30th in yards per carry average, FIFTH in yards per play.
Analysis- The Cowboys outscore and outgain the Packers. They gain more yards per play than the New England Patriots. They rush significantly better, gaining more total yards and more yards per rush than the Packers. They average fewer passing yards per game, however, that is do to fewer attempts. The Cowboys also have a better yards per pass attempt ratio.
Cowboys- 8th in total yards per game, 5th in rushing yards per game, 5th in rushing yards per attempt, 17th in passing yards per game, Opposing QB rating on average: 73.7, 19th in scoring defense, 8th in yards per play, 3rd in interceptions, 11th in sacks.
Packers- 11th in total yards per game, 8th in rushing yards per game, 7th in rushing yards per attempt, 20th in passing yards per game, Opposing QB rating on average: 81.2, 5th in scoring defense, 11th in yards per play, 15th in interceptions, 7th in sacks.
Analysis- The Cowboys lead the Packers in every relevant statistical category I could find except for scoring and sacks. When you remember that the Cowboys’ two starting corners and starting outside linebacker have each missed 2-3 games, and have been limited in 2-3 others apiece, the numbers are a tad flawed perhaps. However, this is based purely on what will be relevant for the upcoming game, I give the Cowboys a smidgeon of credit for knowing all three will be back to play the Packers, but it doesn’t affect anything. I call a draw. The Pack lead the Boys in scoring, which I always believe is very big, but the Cowboys lead the Packers in so many other areas, it is unfair to call a win for the Pack on points alone. To not raise an outcry, I’ll call it a draw.
Cowboys- Kicking: 18 for 20 with one block. 88% FG success rate, 95% rate, w/o block; Punting: 49.1 average (5th in NFL), 39.2 net average (8th in NFL); Kick returns: 3 returners (25th, 34th, and 40th in NFL average). 1 blocked field goal (returned for TD)
Packers- Kicking: 16 for 20, no blocks. 80% FG success rate; Punting: 45.1 average (10th in NFL), 40.1 net average (5th in NFL); Kick returns: 3 kick returners (49th, 77th, and 80th in NFL average).
Analysis- Nick Folk has been much more accurate on field goals than mason Crosby has, and has proven himself in the clutch. His only miss is from 50 yards out. In punting, the Cowboys have a sizable advantage in punting average, although the packers have a better coverage unit. Neither team has an exceptionally good return game, although the Cowboys are noticeably better.
OK, so let’s look back at we have so far. Looking PURELY AT STATS, it has become obvious that the Cowboys have a superior offense and special teams unit, and the defenses are very, very equal. Both even have a similar weakness (susceptibility to the deep ball). And I dare any of you to challenge those things, because the numbers are there, no matter how you look at them.
OK… so let’s look at a positional breakdown…
QUARTERBACK- Tony Romo’s 100.4 QB rating is fifth in the NFL, and seven points higher than Favre’s 8th-ranked 93.3 rating… Favre has a slightly higher completion percentage… Romo has thrown more touchdowns than Favre has… Favre has 2 fewer interceptions… Favre averages 12 yards passing per game more than Romo. However, Romo averages over a YARD more per attempt than Favre (i.e., if they had the same number of attempts, Romo would have a few hundred more yards)… In fact, Romo’s 8.7 yards per attempt is second only to Tom Brady…
Running game- Not even gonna waste my time. This one ain’t close and everyone knows it. The Cowboys dominate the Pack here in every way possible. Statistically they are better. On paper, they have a speedy outside threat, and a man called my many the toughest runner in the NFL…
Offensive line- Cowboys have allowed 11 sacks… The Packers have allowed 13 sacks… The Cowboys dominate the Packers in yards rushing and yards per rush… Jamie Dukes, an analyst on the NFL Network and a former 4 time All America lineman at Florida State (and a lineman in the NFL for 9 years), has repeatedly, this week, called the Cowboys offensive line, “The biggest, toughest, meanest, angriest, and best offensive line in the whole NFL.”
Wide receiver- The Cowboys’ top two wide receivers have combined for 70 catches, 1130 yards, and 10 touchdowns… The top two Packer receivers have combined for 67 catches, 993 yards, and 8 touchdowns… Cowboys #2 wide receiver Terry Glenn has missed whole season, but may return against Green Bay… The top two Cowboy wideouts have combined for 18 plays of 20 or more yards, the top THREE Green Bay wideouts have combined for only 19… The top 3 Cowboys wideouts have combined for 1 fumble, the top three Packer wideouts have combined for 4…
Tight end- Jason Witten (Cowboys) has 45 catches for 617 yards, 5 touchdowns, 8 plays over 20 yards, and 13.7 yards per catch… Donald Lee (Packers) has 29 catches for 382 yards, 1 touchdown, 4 plays over 20 yards, and 13.2 yards per catch… Green Bay backup TEs have 14 catches for 90 yards, and 2 TDs… Cowboy backups have 9 ctaches for 74 yards, and 2 TDs…
I was gonna compare defense, but it is unfair as the Cowboys run a 3-4, while the Packers run a 4-3. This would mean the Packers D-line would appear significantly better, and the Cowboys LBs would appear significantly better. Do to injuries to the secondary, I am not comparing those, either. Look at the defensive stats for pass defense if you want a comparison.
I'd say the Cowboys have quite a clear edge... wouldn't you?