Main Card

Cole Miller vs. Matt Wiman

How Cole wins: Cole wants to work for the takedown and get Wiman on his back so he can showcase his impressive jiu jitsu. That being said, while Cole certainly has the advantage on the ground over Wiman, it is going to be difficult to get him there as Wiman is a strong wrestler. If Cole is forced to stand with Matt, he should pick his combinations carefully and move quickly out of Wiman's range after each exchange, as Miller has shown to be rather succeptible to strikers (ex. Stephens, Escudero).

How Matt wins: Matt needs to use his wrestling to avoid the takedown and pick Cole apart on his feet. If Matt does get taken down, he needs to stay active and work for a scramble. Matt has the advantage on his feet and if he can keep the fight standing he has a good chance of catching Miller, or getting the decision victory.

Who's going to win: I expect Cole Miller to avoid the one-punch knockout and get the fight to the ground where he will either submit Wiman or ground and pound him en route to a unanimous decision victory.

Pat Barry vs. Joey Beltran

How Pat wins: Being a former kickboxer, Pat has the distinct advantage in the striking aspect of this bout. Pat needs to avoid trying anything special and simply beat Joey up standing. Joey is also a tough striker, so Pat can't get overconfident. If Barry attempts to knock Beltran out with each combination he may very well tire himself out and give Joey an opening. Pat needs to keep his hands up and methodically work for the knockout.

How Joey wins: Ideally, Joey should take Pat down and go for a submission, as Pat has lost both his fights by submission. Unfortunatelly, Beltran is only a blue belt in Jiu jitsu, and it seems unlikely that he will submit Barry. Joey's best bet is to shoot as often as he can and once he secures the takedown, ground and pound and hope for a decision. 

Who's going to win: Pat Barry is going to defend the takedown and use his superior striking to get the TKO win.

Mark Hominick vs. George Roop

How Mark wins: Mark is a very well rounded fighter, having both strong Muay Thai background as well as great Jiu jitsu. This is Mark's fight to lose against a tough, but lesser opponent in George Roop. If Mark gets the fight to the ground, he needs to stay active and work for the side control where he can avoid Roop's energetic guard and go for the mount. If he keeps the fight standing, he has a good chance of knocking Roop out, so he should take his time and pick his shots carefully.

George Roop: On his feet, Roop needs to attempt to land a knockout punch when he counters Hominick's combinations. He won't come out on top of most of their exchanges but if he can land one strong punch he may be able to put Hominick away. On the ground, Roop needs to be active off his back, throwing hammerfists and elbows, and work for a triangle choke. 

Who's going to win: Mark Hominick should get the W in this bout. I expect him to pick Roop apart standing and not even take the fight to the ground, as both fighters are looking to entertain their military guests. I expect a unanimous decision victory for Mark Hominick.

Matt Mitrione vs. Tim Hague

How Matt wins: Matt Mitrione would be best to use his wrestling in this fight. Matt has been succesful on his feet so far, but he has yet to face a striker of Hague's caliber. If he gets overconfident and tries to stand and bang with Hague, he may get caught. While Hague is an accomplished striker, we've seen him get grinded out to some decision loses. Matt needs to get the fight to the ground and land some heavy hammerfist from the guard. That being said, he needs to be careful not to put himself in a vulnerable position when he's doing this as Hague is a BJJ purple belt. If he can stay active in Hague's guard, throwing elbows and hammerfists, he can grind out a decision win.

How Tim wins: Tim wants to keep this fight standing where he can use his superior striking. He needs to look for the knockout punch against this inexperienced fighter and overwhelm him on his feet. He needs to have a quick sprawl and look for a guillotine when Mitrione shoots. He also needs to stay calm and push the jitters aside, as he has already been cut twice from the promotion, this being his third oppurtunity.

Who's going to win: Tim Hague should be able to avoid getting clipped standing and outstrike Mitrione, getting the TKO victory.


Evan Dunham vs. Melvin Guillard

How Evan wins: Evan's gameplan in this fight should be fairly simple. Avoid Guillard's striking, and take the fight to where he is comfortable. If Evan can get into Guillard's guard, he should have no problem out-grappling Melvin. Evan can stand with Melvin, but he needs to be very careful and not take any unessecary risks. Evan should avoid turning this fight into a brawl, and instead work for the takedown as much as possible.

How Melvin wins: Melvin needs to do the exact opposite of Evan and turn this fight into a brawl. Melvin needs to hit him hard and often and try and draw Dunham into a striking match. If Guillard gets taken down, he should work for a scramble as quickly as possible. Melvin needs to go hard the entire fight and push the pace, not allowing Evan the oppurtunity to slow things down and clinch. If Melvin can make this fight a stand up battle it is his fight to win.

Who's going to win: Evan Dunham has looked very promising so far and I expect this trend to continue. I expect Evan Dunham to outclass Guillard and get the submission victory.


January 19, 2011  08:04 PM ET

Good analysis.
I agree that Dunham has the edge in the main event. He got jobbed in his fight against Sherk and that will have motivated him in his training more than ever.

Comment #2 has been removed
January 20, 2011  02:39 PM ET

Thanks for the heads up

January 21, 2011  08:15 PM ET

Awesome job, man. Liked very much your analysis.
Obviously each can pick different fighters, but I loved the breakdown.

Keep it coming!


Remember to keep your posts clean. Profanity will get filtered, and offensive comments will be removed.

Start Your Own Blog

Start Now

Truth & Rumors


  1. 1
    'Melo wants to be wooed (like, Howard wooed)
  2. 2
    Farrell defends Fenway's 'sleep room'
  3. 3
    Cashman scratching his head over Pineda
  4. 4
    Vogel coaching for his job
  5. 5
    Youthful Red Wings are rattled

SI Photos