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TigerBait10
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Handicapping the Super Bowl takes on a different perspective each year. 

Granted, there are a myriad of statistics, angles and trends we can draw from but the bottom line is the personalities of the teams are equally important when it comes to isolating the eventual winner.

Safe to say that sports handicappers do not hold psychiatric degrees, let's take a quick look at some of the more interesting trends that have occurred in Super Bowls past. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, unless noted otherwise.  

Favorites

The public loves backing favorites and when it comes to the Super Bowl it's like putting kids in a candy store. 

As a result, the public today is badly in need of new dental health care coverage. That's because overloading on these super-sweet favorites has proven to be a decaying experience, with favorites sporting a 19-11 SU and 12-16-2 ATS record, including 4-9-2 ATS the last 15 games.

Favorites (Green Bay) taking on opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are just 6-13-2 ATS.

Super Bowl chalk taking on an opponent that did not cover its championship game by 12 or more points are 8-6 SU and 3-12-1 ATS.

The last sixteen favorites to score 30 or less points are 2-14-1 ATS.

Hit Me


Speaking of scoring, putting points on the scoreboard is obviously tantamount to succeeding in this game.  

Those that do, win the game and the money. Those that don't, lose the game and the money.  It's just that simple.

And twenty-one points appears to be the cut-line.

That's because teams that fail to score 21 points in the Super Bowl are 1-20 SU and 3-17-1 ATS.  Teams that tally 21 or more points are 26-9 SU and 23-9-3 ATS.

Twenty-seven points virtually assures a victory as teams putting 27 or more on the scoreboard are 22-1 SU and 19-3-1 ATS.

Seed Me

Going back the last 15 years, the higher-seeded team has struggled mightily against the spread in the big game. 

Last year paired both the No. 1 seeds from each conference for the first time in 16 years when New Orleans upended Indianapolis, 31-17.

Two years ago Pittsburgh downed Arizona, 27-23, while failing to cover the seven-point impost.  As a result the higher seeded team (Pittsburgh) will carry a 1-11-2 ATS mark into SBV.

The last No.1 to win a Super Bowl, playing a non-No. 1 seed, was the '99 Rams.

Conference Call

Like the National League's one-time mastery over the American League, the NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, going 19-11 SU and 18-10-2 ATS.

When facing an AFC foe off back-to-back ATS wins, the NFC is 15-6 SU and 15-5-1 ATS in games with Roman Numerals attached.  However, the NFC is only 4-9 SU and 6-6-1 ATS in the last 13 Super Bowl contests.

One final note: this marks the first time in nine years the NFC will dress up as the favorite.

That's an early take on this year's Super Bowl matchup. Good luck as always. 
January 25, 2011  05:06 PM ET

So based on your numbers, doesn't that validate the Pac being picked as favorites. I think they have shown the ability to not only put up points, but to put them up quickly. They were seeded higher that the Steelers. And they're an NFC team.

Are you looking to beat the spread on this game instead of picking a winner? Which I guess is still picking the spread...

January 25, 2011  05:26 PM ET

I like the thought that went into this blog.... It's kind of funny when you crunch up all the numbers from past Super Bowls. However, you look at the game and the matchup.... Once Green Bay beat the Bears, I had said that if the Jets had won, the Packers would lose to their stout pass defense and exotic blitz packages, because Green Bay simply just doesnt run the ball well.... On the other hand, now that they are playing Pittsburg, they will win.... This is because you are taking away Pittsburgs best ability, run stop. I think that their secondary is insuperior, especially with Polomalu a little bit limpy. The Packers are one of the few teams in the league that can have a 70/30 pass to run ratio and still win. I like the Packers, 24-20.

January 26, 2011  11:26 AM ET
QUOTE(#1):

So based on your numbers, doesn't that validate the Pac being picked as favorites. I think they have shown the ability to not only put up points, but to put them up quickly. They were seeded higher that the Steelers. And they're an NFC team.Are you looking to beat the spread on this game instead of picking a winner? Which I guess is still picking the spread...

I've already locked in the Steelers on the Money Line, juice was to good to pass up. The opening line was a pick'em and moved to GB -3 and is now -2.5 at most books. I'll wait and see if the line continues to drop. Its does appear that the Packers do have a edge here but its the Super Bowl, both teams will leave everything on the field and Pittsburgh does have more experience.

 
January 26, 2011  11:46 AM ET
QUOTE(#2):

I like the thought that went into this blog.... It's kind of funny when you crunch up all the numbers from past Super Bowls. However, you look at the game and the matchup.... Once Green Bay beat the Bears, I had said that if the Jets had won, the Packers would lose to their stout pass defense and exotic blitz packages, because Green Bay simply just doesnt run the ball well.... On the other hand, now that they are playing Pittsburg, they will win.... This is because you are taking away Pittsburgs best ability, run stop. I think that their secondary is insuperior, especially with Polomalu a little bit limpy. The Packers are one of the few teams in the league that can have a 70/30 pass to run ratio and still win. I like the Packers, 24-20.

Thanks, and you make a great point, Pitt is strong against the run but knowing that the Pack can't run the ball, they will pin their ears back and get after Rodgers. Getting him on the ground however is another topic.

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