After going 6-8 two weeks ago, I bounced back with a 13-3 week last week. For the year, I'm 103-56 picking the winner, which gives me a 64.7% shot at picking the winner. Here are my picks for this week.
Packers @ Lions
The weakness of the Lions offense is their offensive line, which does'nt bode well considering that they'll be playing a Packer defense that can really get after the passer with Aaron Kampman and Kameer Gbaja-Biamila. I look for Jon Kitna to be under a lot of pressure, but the Packers do play that man-to-man style of defense, and anytime you play man-to-man defense against the Lions, you'll probably give up some big plays down the field. The Packers offense is designed around a controlled passing attack and the Packers like to spread the ball around a lot. The Lions defense is an agressive defense that gets a lot of sacks and turnovers and anytime you spread the ball around like the Packers do, you're vulnerable to give up negative plays. This is a game where I expect a lot of turnovers and big plays on both defense and offense from both teams. I think this game will be pretty even, but I like the Lions to come out on top because they're at home.
Jets @ Cowboys
The Jets don't have much of a shot in this game. I know they played well against the Steelers, but let's be honest, that was probably a fluke. They won't play defense like they did against the Steelers and this game is on the road. The Jets still have one of the worst rush defenses in the league and they'll get trampled by Julius Jones and Marion the Barbarian. As for Kellen Clemens, he played well against the Steelers, and he'll have success moving the ball against the Cowboys, but the Cowboys and Romo will be putting up too many points for the Jets to have a shot.
Colts @ Falcons
The Falcons are one of the worst teams in the league, and the Colts are still one of the best teams in the league. The Falcons can't stop the run, which is why I expect Joseph Addai to have a huge game on the ground. As for the Colts defense, they're still pretty good even without Dwight Freeney and they should be terrorizing the Falcons backfield in this game. I think the Colts will re-establish the line of scrimmage as they win easy.
Bills @ Jaguars
The Bills are playing hard, but they're just not very talented. The Jaguars are playing really well on both sides of the ball. On defense, the Bills have been giving up yards, but they haven't given up a lot of points. I expect the same thing to continue against the Jaguars this week. However, the Bills won't do much against the Jaguars defense. JP Loss-man can't play and Marshawn Lynch(if he plays) will go nowhere against the Jaguars defense. I think the Bills defense keeps this game close, but the Jaguars pull away at the end.
Seahawks @ Rams
Games like these are exactly why I think the Seahawks are overrated. They beat some horrible teams like the Rams and 49ers and everybody's saying that they're an elite team because they have a good record. However, the Seahawks defense can get after the quarterback really well and the Rams have a dreadful offensive line. That's why I expect Marc Bulger to be under a lot of pressure and give the Seahawks offense plenty of short field. I like the Seahawks easy.
Vikings @ Giants
The Vikings are nothing without Adrian Peterson, and he's not playing this week. The Giants have a very good defense and they'll shutdown the Vikings running attack. That'll allow the Giants to pin their ears back and unleash their pass rush. The Vikings defense creates a lot of negative plays and Eli Manning is a quarterback that won't lose you the game. That's exactly what he won't do this week and that's the major reason I like the Giants to win comfortably.
Raiders @ Chiefs
The one thing the Chiefs can do really well is rush the passer with Tamba Hali and Jared Allen. The only thing the Raiders can do on offense is run the ball and I think the Chiefs're going to stuff the Raiders running game. That allows Tamba Hali and Jared Allen to be in the Raiders backfield all day. As for the Raiders defense, they'll shut down the Chiefs rushing attack and they'll keep the game close, but I like the Chiefs to come out on top because they won't turn the ball over.
Texans @ Browns
The Texans do have Andre Johnson back, but they just don't have the firepower to keep pace with the Browns offense. I think the Texans are going to move the ball at will against a horrible Browns defense that even the Ravens moved the ball against, but the Browns defense steps it up when it needs to. When it's in the 4th quarter and the Texans need to make a play, that's when the Browns defense comes up with a big play that seals the game. That's why I like the Browns to come out on top.
Saints @ Panthers
This is a game between two teams that are on a slide and a game which both teams need to win to remain in the playoff hunt. The Saints offense has been able to move the ball and the Panthers haven't had the same defense as they've had in the past. The Panthers defense has given up a few big plays this year and I expect that to continue against the Saints as well. As for the Panther offense, they'll get some big plays because Jason David gets burnt like a torch. I think this game will be really close, but I think the Saints come out on top because they've got the better quarterback.
Redskins @ Bucs
These are two very similar teams, both play good defense and they have two decent offenses. Last week against the Cowboys, the Redskins blitzed a lot more than they've been doing the rest of the year and I expect that to continue. The Jaguars came after Jeff Garcia and he made some bad throws, which is what I think he'll do. As for the Redskins running backs, I think they'll have an okay day against the Bucs, but the key is that I don't think the Redskins will turn the ball over. That's why I think the Redskins win.
Titans @ Bengals
The Titans are a team that can run the ball, and anyone can run the ball against the Bengals. The Bengals need to learn how to play defense, and they're going up against a Titans offense that can run the ball and by the looks of it, Vince Young is learning to throw the ball as well as run it. The Titans are going to go up and down the field and they'll put up a lot of points against an abysmal defensive team. As for the Bengals offense, they'll turn the ball over against a pretty good Titans defense. The Bengals can't run the ball and they won't run the ball this week. I like the Titans because they can run the ball and the Bengals can't.
49ers @ Cardinals
I love what Ken Whisenhunt is doing in Arizona and the 49ers have lost 8 straight. The Cardinals have an excellent defense and the 49ers have no offense. Frank Gore will get stuffed against the 49ers and Trent Dilfer can't play quarterback. The 49ers are going to be turning the ball over like crazy and the Cardinals are going to be capitalizing off of those turnovers. I like the Cardinals big in this game.
Ravens @ Chargers
This is a matchup between two bad teams. The Chargers offense can't move the ball and that isn't very good considering the fact that a very good Ravens defense is coming to town. I think the Ravens will take away LaDanian Tomlinson and make Phillip Rivers beat them and Rivers will make mistakes because he has no running game. As for the Ravens offense, I think Kyle Boller will play okay this week and he won't turn the ball over. That's why I like the Ravens to come out on top in a really close game.
Broncos @ Bears
The Broncos run defense actually looked pretty good against the Bears and I bet that it was just a case of the Broncos defense coming together and playing as a unit. The Broncos are on a bit of a roll and they're playing a bad Bears defense. Jay Cutler is starting to come on as a quarterback and I think he'll have a field day against the Bears. As for the Bears offense, they have no one that can run the ball, which means that Rex Grossman will be dropping back to throw on every play, which spells trouble. The Broncos defense will get lots of turnovers and that'll help out their offense and give them short fields to work with. I like the Broncos big.
Eagles @ Patriots
The Eagles don't have much of a shot in this game. The Patriots defense will take away Brian Westbrook and the Eagles will have nowhere to turn. The Patriots defense will make Donovan McNabb/AJ Feeley look like they made Derek Anderson and Jason Campbell look. They'll get a lot of turnovers and make big plays. Of course, the Patriots will put up their usual 35 as they win big at home to go 12-0.
Dolphins @ Steelers
The Dolphins offensive line has played pretty well this year, but they're playing a very good Steelers pass rush which'll turn John Beck into a punching bag. Beck will make a ton of mistakes and the Steelers offense will be set up with short fields and they'll put up point left and right against the Dolphins pathetic defense. The Steelers will crush the Dolphins.