Ok, so there is an NFL game tonight on the NFL network. I guess it is the Packers at the Cowboys, and both teams are 10-1. I guess that makes this a big game. Really, it isn't a big game, because neither of these teams will beat the Patriots would they be so lucky to make it to the Superbowl.
I will watch this game, however, simply because Brett Favre is playing.
Getting to the betting aspect of this game: the line opened this week at Dallas -6.5. The line is now Dallas -7. This, of course, means that everyone likes Dallas and most of the money has been bet on Dallas.
My late grandpa Charlie would say that the movement of the line doesn't mean anything. He would also say betting sports is not about predicting winners.
We could go on and on about match ups and who is faster or stronger or smarter, but in the end the ball bounces funny and the team with luck on their side will usually win. The best team does not always win.
That being said, if I had to predict this game, I would only take Dallas because they are at home, not because I think they are that much better of a team. Green Bay is for real. They are a good football team. If luck is on their side, they will win.
The problem is, luck has been on their side most of the year. So, odds are they can't keep getting lucky. Don't misunderstand me; I am not saying they are winning because they are lucky. They have won because they are good, but without lucky bounces, they might have only won 7 games this year instead of 10.
If you were to bet this game tonight, the smart bet would be on Dallas to cover the seven points.