My late grandpa Charlie taught me a lot about gambling. Golf has also taught me a lot about gambling.
In golf one must not force things to happen. You can't make a birdie happen for you, you have to let it happen. You do this by giving the odds a chance to work in your favor as much as possible.
There is never such a thing as a guarantee or a handicapper who can pick every game correctly. There are too many variables to consider. There is, however, an opportunity every day to work odds in your favor and let luck work for you.
It is with this thought in mind that I suggest betting on North Carolina this evening.
The Tar Heels are 25 point favorites and falling. The spread seems to be edging toward 24 points.
This means, of course, that bettors don't feel North Carolina will beat Pennsylvania by more than 25 points.
The key here is not to focus on predicting. There is no way I can say to you that North Carolina will cover and win by 25 or more. I can say, however, that if I am going to have my money on one of these teams, it is going to be on the team with the talent.
Pennsylvania does not have one player that shoots 80% or better from the free throw line. They only have two players who average double figure scoring. They are physically outmatched at every position on the floor against North Carolina.
Does Penn have the slightest chance to win this game? The answer is no. We all know that UNC will win. The question is by how much. Nobody knows that, but coming down at crunch time when UNC has a 22 point lead and a shot here or a rebound there or a missed free-throw there makes the difference in covering or not covering, do you want your money on the non-athletic, free-throw-missing Quakers of Penn? I think not.
I will take my chances on the number one ranked Tar Heels who have four double figure scorers, three of which shoot over 80% from the free throw line.
I will take my chances on the team that is unparalleled in athleticism, that will get that extra rebound at the end that prevents Penn from scoring a last minute bucket.
I will take my chances on a star player like Tyler Hansbrough who plays with 110% energy no matter who the opponent and no matter what the score. He is the kind of player that will still be hustling when they lead by thirty points.
If I were a bettin' man, I would be bettin' on the Tar Heels tonight.