The bowls are tough to predict. It seems that no matter what type of system you have to predict games in the regular season, it all falls apart during the bowl season. There are several reasons for this. Coaches leave a program before the bowl game (West Virginia.) New coaches take over teams with little time to prepare for the bowl, often focusing on the recruiting class (Michigan.) Players get suspended (Florida State). Players play harder with the NFL in sight. (JaMarcus Russell last season.) Teams are disappointed by getting shafted in the bowl selection process, and therefore don't play as hard. (Missouri.) Teams get a break and are out to prove that they are worthy of their shot in the big game (Boise State, 2006.)
The system I had is based on stats, which throws a new twist in to things. Ohio State has their stats against a weak Big 10 conference, while LSU has their numbers against a strong SEC conference. If these two teams are ranked close to one another, do I take this as the prediction, or do I weigh in the strength of the conferences? Hawaii played in a weak WAC conference, while Georgia played in a tough SEC. Obviously Hawaii is going to pile up numbers, but if they are better than Georgia's do we count Georgia as the better team?
For the reasons above I am going to incorporate my system in to my thought process, but the final decision will be made based on several factors. Each week I will write my opinions of the games leading up to that Sunday. So for now, here are the predictions for this week's games.