Jim's Baseball Blog

Bad news for Crain

GalaxyJim — Fri, 18 May 2007 01:15:42 GMT

Since coming to the big leagues in 2004, Jesse Crain has been a very good pitcher for the Minnesota Twins. Though not a household name, he has excelled as a key component of the Twins bullpen. His career ERA is around 3, which made this year really susrprising: he's gotten off to a rocky start with a 5.51 ERA, and 4 HR allowed already. Two days ago, Tuesday, he was completely ineffective, allowing 6 runs to Cleveland.

He's hit the DL today and the news from today's MRI is, most emphatically, not good:

Torn rotator cuff.

Torn labrum.

They're getting a second opinion, but I think Crain is probably done for 2007. The rotator cuff can be surgically repaired, and he'd have a good chance of pitching well again. But the labrum ...

A torn labrum is one of those things that medical science can't really rebuild. They can basically open you up and stich it together, and that's all. Sometimes it works, and sometimes it doesn't.

I'm really rooting for Jesse Crain to get the surgery, do the rehab, and put this behind him by pitching well as early as 2008. But the odds are against it, and frankly, he is just as likely never to pitch that well again.

"Win Twins"? Then why is Ponson still pitching?

GalaxyJim — Sun, 13 May 2007 01:52:17 GMT

For the life of me, I can't understand this one.

The Twins have a decent team, and a chance to contend this year, even in the meatgrinder that is the AL Central. So why, I ask you, did they name Sidney Ponson as a member of their starting rotation?

The last time Sidney Ponson was anything close to even an average pitcher was in 2003. His struggles since then (on the field ... I won't even get into the ones off the field) have been worrisome:

2004 (Orioles) - 11-15, 5.30 ERA

2005 (Orioles) - 7-11, 6.21 ERA

2006 (Yankees) - 0-1, 10.47 ERA

2006 (Cardinals) - 4-4, 5.24 ERA

Predictably, Ponson has struggled mightily in his time with the Twins:

2007 (Twins) - 2-5, 6.93 ERA

Now ... it would be one thing if the Twins had no minor-league pitching to replace Ponson. Except they have two of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball who are currently toiling at Rochester (AAA ball):

Kevin Slowey - OK, so it's a horrible name for a pitcher. But he's completely ready for the bigs:

41 innings, 24 Hits allowed, has struck out 38 while walking 2 ... yes, *two*.

Matt Garza - probably has a higher ceiling than Slowey, but only pitching 'fairly well' instead of 'out of his mind' -

29 innings, 35 Hits allowed, 35 strikeouts against 13 walks.

If the Twins don't call one of these kids up, and I mean this week, without giving Sir Sidney another chance to fail, they'll continue to dramatically hurt their playoff chances for 2007.

MLB - Around the NL Central, part 1

GalaxyJim — Fri, 11 May 2007 15:28:02 GMT

Continuing the series of division-by-division looks at the teams in MLB. Today, the NL Central. With six teams, we're going to do this in TWO posts, so it won't be so god-awful long. So, first, teams 1-3 in the standings:

1. Milwaukee Brewers (24-10, 0 GB) - OK, so they've had a very favorable early-season schedule. They've played 8 more games at home than on the road, and just finished beating up on the Nationals. None of that changes the fact that the BREWERS have the best record in the game. All they've done so far is turn baseball on its ear by storming out of the gate, and are currently riding a 6-game win streak.

Offense - 169 runs scored, one of the highest totals in the NL. They are young, but they can flat-out rake. Besides the youngsters such as Prince Fielder (to old-timers like me, he'll always be 'Cecil's son'), Tony Gwynn (yes, he's THAT Tony's son), J.J. Hardy, Rickie Weeks, and Corey Hart, the team has a nice mix of established hitters in Geoff Jenkins, Johnny Estrada, and Bill Hall. As likely to pound doubles as homers, but they get the job done and are fun to watch.

Pitching - No longer just Ben Sheets, who has been pedestrian thus far (2-2, 4.04, with only a worrisome 21 K's in 42 innings). Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush have nearly mirror-image peripheral stats - except for ERA's more than 3 runs apart, which shows that Suppan has been quite lucky so far, and Bush very UN-lucky. (It's OK if you don't believe that, but it's true). And hats off to Chris Capuano (5-0, 2.31) and Claudio Vargas (3-0, 2.65), both of whom have been pitching like solid #2's. The back end of the 'pen is lights-out (Francisco Cordero is 15-for-15 in saves, having allowed 11 baserunners in 16.2 innings), and Derrick Turnbow has suddenly developed a habit of throwing strikes. The middle relief has struggled some, but the other parts of the team have been clicking so well, it hasn't mattered much.

Outlook - Despite a few naysayers, the Brewers are not going away. They have better than a 50% chance of retaining their division lead, and can approach 90 wins by merely playing .500 baseball the rest of the way. Odds are, they'll be even a little better than that, and playoff baseball will return to Milwaukee.

2. Chicago Cubs (16-16, 7 GB) - Ah, Spring. The sun is shining, the birds are singing, and the Cubs are ... NOT losing? Hmmm. Well, OK, they're losing some close ones. Still, a .500 start has the buzz around this team amped to an unusual level for May. A perplexing team, because statistically, their record should be even better.

Offense - merely average, having scored 150 runs. Derrek Lee is back and roping line drives in his sleep (.389/.467/.565, 17 doubles). Aramis Ramirez continues to provide power (7 HR already). Alfonso Soriano swings at everything and usually hits it, and is playing well overall, though fantasy owners will be disappointed with only 3 HR and 3 steals thus far. The rest of the lineup is average, although SS has been an absolute black hole offensively (Izturis is at .206/.279/.289, while backup Cedeno is even worse!) - no wonder young utilty man Ryan Theriot has gotten 8 starts there this year.

Pitching - WAY above average at 118 runs allowed, one of the top figures in baseball. Prior? No. Wood? Sorry. Try Rich Hill, Jason Marquis, and Ted Lilly, who have all been pitching out of their collective minds. Even with Carlos Zambrano really struggling (74 baserunners in 46.1 innings, with 10 HR allowed already), and a few useless starts from Wade Miller, the Cubs' pitching has carried them. Actually, it's been so good that many rational forecasters (including myself) are saying it can't last. But pitching coach Larry Rothschild deserves some real praise the longer this goes on.

Outlook - What to make of a team that's pitching better than it should, but is still not over .500? The folks at Baseball Prospectus currently have them winning 87 games, with a 40% chance of the playoffs. I'm not so sure - I'll give them a 20% chance of sneaking into the wild card spot.

3. Houston Astros (16-18, 8 GB) - they've devolved into the quintessential average major league ballclub. They win as many as they lose, they score as many as they allow, they lost Pettitte and now Clemens to the high-dollar Yanks, and there is very little buzz about them right now, considering they were NL champions just two years ago. (Funny to me how Phil Garner is a much more average manager when he has much more average players). The only positive news is that, although they've been away from home for long stretches early, they've held their own (10-10 on the road).

Offense - 147 runs scored. Ho-hum. Biggio's excruciatingly slow march to 3,000 hits continues. Import Carlos Lee is doing his main job, driving in 32 runs in 34 games. Lance Berkmann continues to be an under-appreciated, patient hitter (.296/.447/.435), but maybe he's being too patient - he has only 6 extra-base hits. Other isolated bright spots, such as Luke Scott and Mark Loretta, can't make up for the Adam Everetts (.202/.269/.284) and Morgan Ensbergs (.228/.336/.347). Rookie Hunter Pence was called up to inject some life into the lineup. His batting stance alone is worth the price of admission to Minute Maid Park.

Pitching - Without Pettitte and Clemens, the rotation is Roy Oswalt and the fire brigade. If names such as Woody Williams, Wandy Rodriguez, Chris Sampson, and Matt Albers don't inspire confidence, you're not alone. Of those, W-Rod has actually pitched fairly well - but has an 0-3 record to show for it - and Chris Sampson, a nice comeback story at age 28, has shown he's an actual major league pitcher. But when Chris Sampson is second on your staff with three wins ... OK, say it with me ... Houston, you have a problem. The good news here is the 'pen - they've done the best they could at keeping the 'stros in games. And tune in tomorrow for the continuing saga of Mad Brad Lidge, who, since a late April debacle at Milwaukee that ran his ERA to 10.13, seems to have found his groove again. He's only allowed 1 run total in his last 9 games, and the ERA is down to 4.02.

Outlook - They have some talent, but they don't have enough starting pitching to seriously contend. They should hover within a few games of .500 all year long.

Coming soon: the 2nd half of the NL Central.

No more Dream Weaver

GalaxyJim — Fri, 11 May 2007 04:38:16 GMT

When we last saw pitcher Jeff Weaver, he was celebrating as a key member of the 2006 World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals - the most unlikely member of the most unlikely world champion in recent memory.

After running up 10 losses and a 6.29 ERA, and wearing out his welcome by mid-season with the Angels, he had landed in St. Louis and was able to upgrade his performance to mediocre (5.18 ERA to close out the year) - and St. Louis, circa 2006, was definitely the right place, at the right time, to be mediocre. He liked it in St. Louis. Certainly liked his shiny new credentials as a Champion. Would have stayed for no pay raise at all - just the $8.3 million that he made in 2006. But the Cardinals wouldn't do it. People scratched their heads.

Off to Seattle he went - back to the American League, site of his struggles the previous year. Most importantly, Seattle was willing to give Mr. Weaver his $8.3 million for 2007. People scratched their heads, but for different reasons.

Fast forward to May 10th, and take a look at what Mr. Weaver has accomplished for the Mariners, who had hoped to contend this year in the tame AL West -

6 starts. 6 losses. Hasn't yet gotten past the 6th inning. He's 0-6... with an ERA of (turn away if you're squeamish) ... 14.32, with *50* hits allowed in 22 innings. The Mariners are 15-9 when anyone else starts, and 0-6 when Weaver takes the hill.

Jeffery Charles Weaver, I don't say this lightly or very often, but you're done. Take the high road and retire at age 30, with nearly $40 million in career earnings. At this point, it's best for everyone.

Wang not perfect today

GalaxyJim — Thu, 10 May 2007 21:28:46 GMT

Fresh off a gem last week, Yankees starter Chien-Ming Wang got his hat handed to him today courtesy of the Texas Rangers.

Going into this game, it might have looked like a laugher. Wang entered with an ERA just under 4.00 on the young season, while young Texas righty Brandon McCarthy had reduced his ERA from 9.90 all the way down to 7.96 (!) after his last win over Toronto, and was facing one of the most feared lineups in the game.

But this, after all, is why they play - McCarthy pitched well into the 6th, giving up only one run, reducing his ERA further down to 6.89 (!). Wang, on the other hand, was pelted for 11 hits in 6.1 innings, and allowed 7 Rangers to cross the plate, swelling his ERA to 5.40. Things got no better as the Rangers feasted on the Yankee 'pen, tatooing Luis Vizcaino for 3 runs and then Sean Henn for 4 more. All in all, one of 'those' days for Yanks fans.

The good news is, the Bombers won the series, after splitting the Seattle series over the weekend. They get another shot now as they travel to Seattle this weekend. The starters project as Rasner on Friday, DeSalvo on Saturday, and finally a name people will recognize, Pettitte on Sunday.

MLB - Around the NL East

GalaxyJim — Thu, 10 May 2007 05:54:01 GMT

Over the next several days, I'll be taking a division-by-division look at the teams in MLB. First up: the National League East.

1. NY Mets (21-12, 0 GB) - the pre-season pick of most baseball writers, the Mets are off to a fast start. Although their schedule has had them away from Shea for long stretches early, they've played well on the road (14-5) and now return home for series against the red-hot Brewers, the improved Cubs, and then an interleague set with the Yankees ... so May 11-20 will be an interesting time. They have the talent to win 2 of those 3 series.

Offense: best in the National League, with 174 runs through 33 games, edging out the Marlins' production.

Pitching: 117 runs allowed in 33 games, right up there with (gulp) the Cubs for the NL lead. For the youngsters in the rotation, Maine has been brilliant, but has been offset by Pelfrey's struggles so far.

Outlook: Closest thing the NL has to a 'lock' for a playoff spot.

1 (T) Atlanta (21-12, 0 GB) - yes, the Braves are back. It's clear that I haven't given them enough credit, as I felt the Mets would have left them in the dust by now. Statistically speaking, they're playing a little above their heads right now - but you have to give credit where it's due. They have positioned themselves for yet another strong playoff run in 2007.

Offense: one of the best in the NL, with 163 runs scored in 33 games. Young studs like McCann and Francoeur are blended nicely with established stars like Chipper and Edgar Renteria, and Kelly Johnson has been a revelation at the top of the lineup, channelling Joe Morgan to begin the year.

Pitching: Uncharacteristically average, allowing 144 runs in 33 games. Nothing wrong with Smoltz, and Tim Hudson has started the year on fire. But the youngsters in the rotation (Chuck James, Kyle Davies) have been average or worse; Hampton is gone (again); and his replacement, Redman, has bombed. Pitching is still unsettled, but the bullpen is definitely above average (even with Wickman on the DL) and this organization still has young arms when needed (we're looking at you, Mr. Lerew - nice debut).

Outlook: Playoffs are looking probable, but I still say Wild Card is the most likely scenario.

3. Florida Marlins (15-18, 6 GB) - Fredi Gonzalez inherits a team with some tremendous talent. Youth and inconsistency must be served before the Marlins can morph into winners.

Offense: better than you'd think. For awhile, they led all of baseball in runs scored, and are still right with the Mets for the NL lead. Miguel Cabrera is a top-10 fantasy player, as is young SS Hanley Ramirez, who is putting up frightening numbers (.336/.415/.536, with 10 steals). Almost every hitter on this team has power, and they should continue to score their runs.

Pitching: Not pretty. 179 runs allowed, most in the NL. The starters haven't been awful, but neither have they been very good. Dontrelle Willis is 5-2, but has allowed 78 baserunners in 50 innings and has a 5.40 ERA. Last year's no-hit wunderkind, Anibal Sanchez, was demoted to the minors to work on some things, then hit the minor-league DL. Ouch. And the bullpen has been used quite a lot so far - reliever Kevin Gregg already ranks fourth on the team with 21 innings pitched. At this rate, the bullpen arms will collapse and things will get really ugly.

Outlook: Will fight the Phillies for 3rd place all summer.

4. Philadelphia Phillies (15-19, 6.5 GB) - all is not well in the city of Brotherly Love, but you knew this. The Phillies are once again perceived as under-achieving, after SS Jimmy Rollins proclaimed them the team to beat in this division. But they're playing just well enough to hang around.

Offense: the club's strong suit, with 169 runs scored. Rollins is doing what he can to make good on his words (.301/.355/.582) and already has 20 extra-base-hits. Utley is hitting well. Shane Victorino has been given the green light to run and has been successful at the top of the order (13 steals so far). Rowand is hitting out of his mind (.360/.438/.552). All of this offsets Ryan Howard's slump and injury, and the power suddenly missing from Burrell's bat. Overall, a very potent group.

Pitching: For every run the offense scores, the pitching gives one up (166 runs allowed). Moyer is still baffling hitters with his 6 different super-slo-mo changeups - at this rate, he'll be getting people out when he's 50. Young Cole Hamels is all that and a bag of chips - living up to his billing as the next Tom Glavine, and a #1 in the making. Lieber has been fairly good. After that, it gets rocky. Opening Day starter Brett Myers is the new closer, since Tom Gordon's arm finally blew up - maybe for good this time. There's no consistency in this bullpen.

Outlook: Maybe 3rd, maybe 4th. Florida - Philly games will be entertaining for those who like offense.

5. Washington Nationals (9-25, 12.5 GB) - they were supposed to be quite bad, and guess what? They are, in fact, as bad as advertised. Losers of 8 in a row as of this writing, there are no hopes in sight, other than perhaps the first pick in the amateur draft in June 2008.

Offense: 99 runs scored? In 34 games? That's historically bad, and of course the worst in baseball this year. Young outfielders Ryan Church and Austin Kearns are rays of hope, but the rain keeps falling.

Pitching: They went into the season with only John Patterson as an established starter. Patterson is 1-5, 7.47 ERA, and is now hurt. Young Shawn Hill and Jason Bergmann keep them in some games, but as of May 9, no-one on the staff has more than 2 wins.

Outlook: The only question is, how bad will they be? The sportswriters will delight in historical comparisons with the 2003 Detroit Tigers, who lost 119 games. Ah, but there was a silver lining in Detroit ...

---

Coming tomorrow: the NL Central - probably this year's most surprising division.

Props to Josh Beckett

GalaxyJim — Wed, 09 May 2007 13:33:33 GMT

Seven starts. Seven wins. No losses. Six 'quality starts' (only because he went only 5 innings on Apr. 4).

His strikeouts are up (7.7 k / 9 IP). His walks are down (1.9 bb / 9 IP). He's allowed only 2 HR in 46.2 IP.

This is the Beckett that Theo wanted to see when he pried him away from Florida, and he's exciting to watch right now. His curve is biting (in a good way), especially on right handers. He's mixing in his change to keep hitters honest. No blisters in sight since he left the Florida climate. If he can possibly pitch any better than this, I'd like to see it.

Igawa went ... where?

GalaxyJim — Tue, 08 May 2007 04:23:48 GMT

The Yanks made an interesting call today. After seeing fine performances by fill-ins Darrell Rasner and Matt DeSalvo, they elected to keep both pitchers in New York for now.

Kei Igawa? Not so much. Just days after 6 fine innings in relief of the unfortunate Jeff Karstens, Igawa had a horrible start (8 runs in 4 IP) on May 4, which will be his last appearance for the Yanks for awhile. Afterwards, according to mlb.com, he "told reporters his effort had been acceptable and he threw just one bad pitch".

Did they send the $46 million pitcher to AAA in Scranton? No ...

Or, wow, maybe even their AA team in Trenton ... No ...

They sent the lefty to Class-A ball in Tampa. That's right, Florida State League fans ... coming soon to a park near you, the one, the only, Kei Igawa.

I believe that message translates in any language.

Welcome back, Jack Cust

GalaxyJim — Mon, 07 May 2007 17:42:43 GMT

For those who don't know, Jack Cust is a long-time stathead favorite, who's never gotten a full shot at being an everyday major leaguer. This is the 6th season in which he's been called to the bigs ... but his career high in major-league at-bats is 73, with the Orioles back in 2003. He's 28 years old now, and therefore theoretically at his peak as a hitter.

When Piazza was injured this week sliding into third base, Billy Beane went to work (boy, has he been busy swapping spare parts around), and one man he obtained via trade was Jack Cust. Last night (May 6) Cust started in LF (and batted 5th!) for the A's ... and appropriately for the man known throughout the minors for exemplifying the Three True Outcomes of plate appearances (walk, home run, or strikeout) - he went 1-for-3 with (yes) a walk, a strikeout, and his first major league home run since 2003. It was an insurance run that helped secure a 5-3 win over the D-Rays.

No, he won't hit .333 ... he'll be doing well to hit .260 at the big league level. But he has patience, and his power has never been questioned. Somewhere today, Billy Beane is smiling. And so am I.

Mike Pelfrey - the anti-Maine

GalaxyJim — Mon, 07 May 2007 05:01:07 GMT

Mike Pelfrey took the ball again for the Mets on Sunday. 92 pitches, 4 walks, and one loss later, his record dropped to 0-4, 6.39 ... with 14 walks vs. 10 k's in 25 IP.

The good news: Pelfrey can hit 98 MPH with his fastball. The bad news: He's fallen in love with it. According to ESPN data, he's throwing 78% fastballs .... and 93% fastballs when he's behind in the count (which is often). By simply waiting for fastballs, Major League hitters will continue to tatoo Pelfrey until he learns how to pitch, not just throw. But to state the obvious, he's not helping the Mets right now ... he should be in AAA, and in a just world, he should be the one to be sent down just as soon as El Duque comes back from shoulder bursitis in a week or so (if all goes well ...)