Agganis Lives

For Boston, two out of three's not enough

Agganis Lives — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 15:20:03 GMT

What a confluence in Boston yesterday. NBA and NHL playoff games, and the Red Sox. All we needed was the NFL draft moved up a week, and we could've had a total situation.

The day ended well, with the Bruins rolling Montreal to go two up and the Sox beating Baltimore for their first three-game winning streak of the season. They have issues of their own, but the Celts must be dealt with first.

First, I don't want to hear another word about Kevin Garnett. As Rick Pitino would say, he's not walking through that door dressed to play until October.

Personally, it doesn't matter to me whether he's on the bench or not - that's a media-made issue. He got in guys' faces the first half (and he's damned good at it - he had Glen "Big Baby" Davis literally in tears earlier this season), then retreated to the locker room for the second half. Maybe he thought, with his team nine points down, he was being counterproductive. I can tell you from personal experience he was in a bad position - the summer I blew out my knee playing volleyball, I spent the rest of the summer at the other end of the beach after I recovered enough to navigate the sand on crutches - I didn't need the fun I was missing in my face, and didn't go back until I was physically ready to play again the next year.

And the Celts went 18-7 without him, including some pretty good road wins (San Antonio, Atlanta). While I agree with most of the pundits who claim the KG-less Celts won't get by Cleveland in the conference finals (unless LeBron goes down), this is not a woeful team without him. Big Baby grew up with the extended playing time. Leon Powe is back after an injury, too, so they shouldn't hurt too badly inside (and the return of Brian Scalabrine for Game 2 tomorrow might help, too).

But where was the defensive intensity yesterday? Yeah, Derrick Rose was terrific, but he shouldn't be throwing down 36 points against this team, KG or not. There was too much professional laziness yesterday - how could the Celts leave the lane unguarded for a Rose drive in the last minute of regulation?

And Paul Pierce and Ray Allen...were they just standing around waiting for Number 5 to join them? Pierce did come on after a lousy first half, but bricking the potential winning free throw with 2.6 seconds left in regulation was not Truth-like. And Allen...1-for-12 shooting. He left the eye at home.

If Celtics fans thought everything was a fight last year...they had to go seven games with Atlanta in the opening round, but the Hawks did not lay a glove on them at the Garden. Now, the boys will have to do something they didn't have to do against another young, hungry, hot team...steal a game on the road.

Three words, Green. Bring. The. Defense.

Last night was a little more fun. The Bruins laid a convincing 5-1 beatdown on Montreal, and played 100 percent better than they did in Game 1, which the Canadiens dominated for long stretches.

So far, this is playing the opposite of last season, when the Bruins managed just one overtime point against Les Habs in the regular season and went up 3-0 in the first round before Boston rallied to force a Game 7. This year, the Bruins have owned Montreal in similar fashion. They just need to slam the door if they get a chance.

Not that there aren't a couple of clouds on the horizon. Defenseman Matt Hunwick is done for the season after yesterday's emergency spleen removal, and Milan Lucic is at the mercy of the league after drawing a match penalty in the kind of third-period mixup you pray to avoid with a big lead.

Yes, the Sox crawled out of the basement last night and wiped out a 7-0 deficit Friday, but the readings are still quite mixed. The pitching hasn't been consistent yet, and we've got another case of WBC fever, with Daisuke Matsuzaka complaining of a tired arm. Jonathan Papelbon is 4-for-4 closing, but hasn't exactly dominated.

I'll feel much better than the offense when somebody other than Kevin Youkilis and Jason Bay steps forward (although J.D. Drew rang the past couple of nights). Big Papi has been a big, black .186 hole in the heart of the lineup - no homers. Jacoby Ellsbury? Tough to be a pest when you're batting .217. Dustin Pedroia? At .234, MVP hasn't had an RBI since leading off the season with a home run.

Then again, they could have the Yankees' problems.

And we have another triple bill tomorrow - the Sox' annual Patriots' Day morning game (served with a side of Boston Marathon), and two playoff clashes at night.

Frozen in joyful disbelief: a hockey comeback for the ages

Agganis Lives — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 17:36:31 GMT

I still do not believe what I saw last night.

Yes, Minnesota-Duluth did something similar to Princeton in the first round of this year's NCAA men's Division 1 hockey tournament, but my team did it under pressure in the national championship game with the bright ESPN lights shining and the word "choke" visible from the rafters.

I am proud to be a Terrier this morning. The former Boston University quarterback and Boston Red Sox player struck down in his relative youth whom I named this blog after looks down proudly, too.

Maybe even John Silber, the only Texan on the planet who hates football (and whose budget-cutting move ensured my alma mater has remained undefeated on the gridiron since 1997), had a little spring in his step this morning.

And there will be no confusing us with '08 Frozen Four champ Boston College today, I trust.

True, BU was the big favorite to win in its first Frozen Four appearance in 12 years, being the only top seed going up against two threes (Miami, Ohio, and Vermont) and a four (Bemidji State). To lose would've been college hockey's equivalent of an undefeated Patriots team losing Super Bowl XLII. More pressure. As a poster on sportsjournalists.com put it, it was like a Final Four of North Carolina going up against Siena, Cal State-Northridge and Binghamton, only more dangerous.

Even after Thursday's third-period rally to beat a Vermont team that beat us twice at Agganis Arena in November, the boys still played for almost 59 minutes as if the status of top dog was a backbreaking burden, not a challenge. Miami mucked up the middle of the ice all night, not letting BU run its preferred track meet on skates and letting the air out of the puck. Freshman goalie Kieran Millan, brilliant all season, made some big saves but was still fighting the puck after giving up two bad goals against Vermont. The team took too many bad penalties (seven to Miami's two), and the penalty-killing unit seemed to be the only part of the machine running efficiently.

And when the Terriers got sloppy in their own end during the third period, despite the presence of Hobey Baker Award-winning defenseman Matt Gilroy, the Redhawks took advantage twice. When Trent Vogelhuber made it a 3-1 game with 4:08, I thought about Kevin Shattenkirk having to carry that ghastly turnover around with him all summer.

At 3:12, BU coach Jack Parker pulled Millan with a faceoff in the Miami end, and I thought of the first-round game with Ohio State, when the Buckeyes pulled their goalie after cutting BU's lead to 6-3 with just over six minutes left. It took the Terriers about 15 seconds to find that open net.

Fortunately, the team that had kept the pressure on and crashed the net all season arrived in our nation's capital, and Zack Cohen scored with 58.5 seconds left. Maybe, just maybe...but then again, due to the BU Alumni Club of Rhode Island's enthusiasm for wine tastings and quiche-making demonstrations and lack of enthusiasm for hockey, I was watching at home, where I had to fear the wrath of rousing a sleeping Lady of Agganis Manor. Hey, UMD did it...

That fear was gone 41 seconds later, when Nick Bonino found the net for the tie. At least a college buddy from New Jersey called before I could bounce off the walls. We did have to survive a tricky rolling puck that almost handcuffed Millan in the final second of regulation.

Great games are often decided on stupid goals, such as the Northeast final with New Hampshire, won on a goal bouncing in off a sliding UNH defenseman with 15 seconds left in regulation. The boys found their skating legs again in OT, and the renewed push finally paid off at 11:47 with a theatrical game-winner Colby Cohen fired for the wide side of the net. Miami defenseman Kevin Roeder will be haunted the rest of his days by the puck that shot up off his sliding leg, over goalie Cody Reichard's left shoulder and into the net. They say you never see the shot that kills you.

For safety's sake, I took the phone outside.

There may be many more of you in North Carolina and Florida who got to whoop up national championships this year, but you didn't enjoy your titles any more than I did last night (I actually fell asleep during the second half of the Heels' mopup of Michigan State Monday night). And hockey is really the only sport in which BU plays at the very top level - our basketball team, with the city of Boston and the conference's best facility, should be dominating America East but doesn't. We've been to March Madness, but just to take part (as a first-round warmup act for a one or two seed).

Even if Miami had pulled it out, this game would not have been in vain if it turns more people on to the wonder that is college hockey (no fights, purists, although when BU plays that school at the other end of Commonwealth Ave....)

The Madness, Day 9: When the wheels come off...

Agganis Lives — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 03:46:32 GMT

Sorry, but if we're playing the Final Four in Detroit, the auto industry metaphors are going to fly.

There was no Big East bailout for UConn or Villanova when their offenses broke down in the second half last night. For almost 15 minutes, it seemed the Huskies couldn't make a shot while Michigan State was putting them away before the turbocharged roar of the hometown crowd at Ford Field. The Wildcats, meanwhile, couldn't get out of their own way when they had a chance to beat a North Carolina team whose own offense fell out of gear after the game's first 15 minutes.

You can argue that the first game was decided at halftime. What, Sparty ahead by two despite getting a big fat zero out of Goran Suton? Well, Raymar Morgan, who is an iffy proposition from game to game, decided to show up, the tune of 18 points and nine rebounds. And Korie Lucious did more with nine minutes of court time (11 points) than Judi Dench with nine minutes of Oscar-winning screen time in "Shakespeare in Love." And then Kalin Lucas and Travis Walton sparked the three straight fastbreak baskets that put State ahead for good.

UConn, meanwhile, couldn't repeat the West Regional-to-national title runs of '99 and '04. Hasheem Thabeet was merely good, not All-American. Kemba Walker was a freshman, not the supersub of last week. And A.J. Price...5-for-20? Laptops weren't the only thing missing in his world last night.

The Heels, meanwhile, look pretty mortal after starting out as if they'd run up 120 points. Tyler Hansbrough picked the right night to bring his offensive game back, and Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington did not look stoppable in the first 15 minutes. From then on, though, they were B-minus at best, and needed defense, a couple of spurts and 'Nova's offensive ineptitude to keep their second date with Michigan State tomorrow night.

It wasn't just that the Wildcats were 5-for-27 from behind the arc. They shot in the lane like French Quarter drunks at midnight on Fat Tuesday - ghastly clangers, 10-foot leaning air balls, you name it. They wasted some hard work on the boards, and just looked tired when they had the ball.

If I'm a member of Spartan Nation, I'm feeling pretty good about my chances tomorrow night. North Carolina looked eminently beatable, not the same bunch that rolled MSU 98-63 in December. And unlike that night, Suton will be out there taking the opening tip at 9:21 p.m.

Plus last year, I kept picking against Kansas. As Molly Ivins used to say, you need to do three things: Look at the record. Look at the record. Look at the record.

While I have nothing but admiration for the way Tom Izzo's boys swindled their way into another championship game, the Heels knew they got away with one last night. They'll bring something better tomorrow night. And the bench will bring more than five points this time.

I picked UNC to win it all three weeks ago. Like the good husband I am, I stand by my choice, for better or for worse.

NORTH CAROLINA 83, MICHIGAN STATE 78.

The Madness, Day 9 picks: Which story do you buy?

Agganis Lives — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 16:14:13 GMT

Four teams, four stories:

North Carolina: The preseason favorite lives up to the hype.

Connecticut: The Big East's biggest bully.

Michigan State: Take a heavyweight punch, then keep coming.

Villanova: Sneaking in while the big guns annihilate each other.

I like this Final Four. There's nobody you can say doesn't belong there. Just keep it to yourself that none of these teams made the finals of their conference tournaments.

First, let's deal with UConn at Michigan State (yes, it's a home game for Sparty - they're not curtaining off any of Ford Field).

I correectly picked three of the Final Four, but Michigan State is the traditional Team I Didn't Think Would Survive Round 2 which always crashes the party. The Spartans' chances come down to two questions: does Goran Suton lure Hasheem Thabeet out of the lane? If not, does State's army of outside shooters connect like it did in the second half against Louisville?

Being consistent, I'll say no. UConn will defend threes more aggressively than Louisville did, I trust. With State defending doggedly and aggressively, Jeff Adrien becomes the key player in the game - if Thabeet stays out of foul trouble and he and Suton play to a stalemate, i'm not sure State has an answer for him. And I suspect a Jim Calhoun team is unafraid of any opponent's home court advantage...even one of the biggest ever.

CONNECTICUT 70, MICHIGAN STATE 64.

I was certainly wrong Sunday. I expected Tyler Hansbrough to break out offensively against Oklahoma, and he didn't. Still, the defense was there - Blake Griffin made his numbers, but needed 11 1/2 minutes to score, and the Tar Heels were on their way by then.

The Villanova interior held up well against Pittsburgh's muscle, but can't match Carolina's speed for 40 minutes. The Wildcats will stay in the game as long as Scottie Reynolds and his posse can chuck threes, but the fresh bodies Roy Williams can throw at them will take their toll eventually. Nobody has kept up with the pace Ty Lawson's been pushing throughout the tournament.

All Roy needs to do pregame is write "40-12" on the blackboard. That's the inexplicable hole the Heels found themselves in against Kansas a year ago. They're too tough and experienced to let it happen again.

NORTH CAROLINA 88, VILLANOVA 75.

The Madness, Day 8: Who cares? Guess Louisville didn't

Agganis Lives — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 03:42:23 GMT

Suddenly, those rumors about Rick Pitino's interest in the Arizona job don't seem so far-fetched.

He'd have to spend a week in the shower to wash away the smell of his team's performance today. "Clunker" does not do justice to what Louisville offered up today.

Pitino's teams don't always win, but they don't get outhustled and outscrapped the way the Cardinals were today by Michigan State. The second half of today's Midwest Regional final was a classic example of what happens when one team shows up and the other doesn't. Louisville looked about as bored and disinterested as Mike Tyson did when he stepped in the ring against Buster Douglas, as if Sparty was supposed to hand over the keys to the Final Four and hop on the bus back to Lansing.

A running and pressing team like Louisville sometimes loses on a bad shooting day. After all, you need to make a few baskets to set up the press.

'Twasn't a bad shooting day that killed the 'Ville. It was a lack of intensity on defense and the boards. The Spartans had an easier time than expected getting the ball upcourt, and consistently outhustled the Cardinals on the boards (but State does boast the nation's best rebounding margin).

Louisville just let Goran Suton fire away at will in the first half, and the big galoot threw down 17 points. Still, at 30-27, Louisville was in it.

Yes, they finally paid attention to Suton, my Player of the Day, after intermission, but just completely ignored the perimeter. When Durrell Summers and Kalin Lucas threw down threes on three straight possessions, the game was over. Where were the Cardinals that overwhelmed Arizona and refused to lose after Siena whacked them upside the head with a 12-0 run? Not in Indy.

And where was the leadership? Samardo Samuels took an 0-fer - there are no freshmen anymore this time of year, Sammy. And Terrence Williams? To paraphrase the great philosopher Vernon Wormer, five points in 35 minutes is no way to end a college career, son.

Michigan State's not a better team than Louisville. But the Spartans were a tougher team. Did any Cardinals watch the MSU-Kansas tape? And think about it: does a Tom Izzo team ever get outworked? Didn't see their game with Carolina, but I suspect they worked harder down 30something in the second half than Louisville did today.

If I sound like somebody who lost a perfect Final Four thanks to Louisville, then thank you, Captain Obvious.

The Tar Heels, meanwhile, are scary. They don't even need much production from Tyler Hansbrough anymore (eight points and six rebounds). Ty Lawson and Danny Green held down the front row in today's wire-to-wire job over Oklahoma.

Blake Griffin made his numbers (23 points and 16 rebounds), but it was really just he and Willie Warren today. When you're 0-for-13 from behind the arc until the final five minutes, you'll have trouble beating jobber teams, let alone the Heels.

I'll deal with my Final Four picks later this week, but quickly...Carolina takes Nova, but UConn-Michigan State is going to require some deep thought.

The Madness, Day 7: Drive to Detroit, said Scottie and Kemba

Agganis Lives — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 16:07:13 GMT

Instead of listening to Billy Packer drone on about guard play yesterday, we got to watch a couple carry their teams to the Final Four instead.

Scottie Reynolds earned himself a prominent place in NCAA Corporate Partners' product placement by driving through the Pittsburgh defense and swishing a leaner in the lane with a half-second left, giving Villanova a lead that survived Levance Fields' near-miracle backcourt heave at the buzzer.

Reggie Redding owes Scottie big time after his late miss left the Wildcats 22-for-23 at the foul line and his long incomplete bomb from the baseline led to Nova blowing a four-point lead in the final seconds. Still, let this be a lesson (listening, Memphis and Missouri?) on the importance of foul shooting in the postseason.

So, do we have our leader for Game of the Tournament so far? It's mine. I thank my alma mater for blowing out Ohio State in the first round up at Manchester (BU was the only one of hockey's four regional top seeds to survive its tournament opener) so I could watch most of this one.

Kemba Walker, meanwhile, set himself up for preseason Big East honors next year. The UConn freshman has been a valuable contributor throught the tournament yesterday, but exploded for 23 points yesterday and saved the Huskies on a day foul trouble and an injured hand slowed Hasheem Thabeet.

Walker and 10-for-10 UConn foul shooting down the stretch held off Missouri after the Tigers recovered from a 13-2 early hold and snatched the lead midway through the second half. Eventually, though, the shots that dropped Thursday night started clanging off the rim, and nobody stepped up. The Tigers bricked 6-for-12 at the line, an even lower percentage than Memphis did.

One was in control 98 percent of the time. The other had to find a way, be it 14 points down against American or in a fight to the finish against the top seed. But my Final Four's two-for-two, and the other half is alive (and favored) today.

Sure, hype North Carolina-Oklahoma as Tyler Hansbrough vs. Blake Griffin. But those supporting casts have come up pretty big, too. Hansbrough hasn't even really had to step up into the spotlight let.

The Tar Heels will be putting the lead foot to the floorboards, and the Sooners will keep up with them for a long time. Still, there's nothing like senior leadership and depth in this kind of game, and I wonder if Psycho-T has been sandbagging it a bit. Today's the day to show us all his game.

NORTH CAROLINA 95, OKLAHOMA 85.

There's a lot to be said about the tenacity of Michigan State. They're nails. They don't get a lot of respect. They just do what they have to do under the boards and on defense, and have just enough offense to do the job.

But they don't see anything in the Big 10 like Louisville. Where they're used to playing at 33, the Cardinals play a hard 78. Sparty will not absorb the 35-point beatdown it did from North Carolina earlier this season, but I don't see it keeping up.

LOUISVILLE 87, MICHIGAN STATE 67.

The Madness, Day 6: Reaching their limits

Agganis Lives — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 18:49:57 GMT

That crashing sound you heard last night was two Sweet 16 teams striking the ceiling.

Good night, Syracuse. Toodle-oo, Arizona.

Blake Griffin's flattening of Jonny Flynn was a perfect metaphor for this game. The Orange just didn't have enough big bodies to hurl at Griffin, and their horrific three-point shooting spelled the end of the road. From the opening tip, they just seemed flat, spent.

Oklahoma, meanwhile, rose to the occasion, with Griffin pounding home points and Player of the Day Tony Crocker erupting for 28. With another Sooner precinct heard from, I'm looking forward to tomorrow's Sooners-Tar Heels slugfest just as much as I did the UConn-Memphis matchup which didn't happen.

Thank you, WPRI-12, Providence, for switching to Oklahoma-Syracuse just before Louisville-Arizona became something we needed to shield the kids from. The Cardinals rolled out the hoop equivalent of shock and awe, and the Wildcats were simply overwhelmed. The depth wasn't there to handle the storm Rick Pitino rolled out, and this was the night two years of Lute Olson drama and its impact on recruiting finally brought down U of A.

Get your coaching house in order quickly, Arizona. Tell Russ Pennell whether he's in or out pronto. Otherwise, the 25-year tournament streak is over, and nuclear hoop winter is about to descend upon Tucson.

Speaking of storms, Gonzaga sure got caught in one. That's what 11-for-19 three-point shooting and nonstop pace will do. North Carolina looked unstoppable.

Oklahoma, we know you beg to differ. Prove to us why tomorrow.

We only batted 1-for-4 last night for Sweet 16-worthy contests. It takes a tremendous effort to oust the defending champ, and Michigan State came up with it.

While Kalin Lucas owned the final minute for Sparty, Goran Suton gets the laurels for this one. He pretty much played Cole Aldrich to a draw inside, and Spartan defense toughness pulled out the win on a night when MSU, with more than a plus-10 rebounding margin for the year, was outrebounded by Kansas 37-31. Of course, when you hit 16 of 17 free throws, you usually do win the close ones.

Suton unloaded the shot just before the halftime buzzer/red light in as close a call as you'll see. Sherron Collins misses the front end of a one-and-one with 20 seconds left. On such trifles do decisive March battles turn.

As for today:

In Boston, I'm sticking by my guns. Pittsburgh was the only top seed I didn't put in my Final Four, and the Panthers have done their best to convince me otherwise. They outlasted Xavier Thursday night in the kind of game championship teams win on their way to that climactic weekend.

But there's one flaw in this team: the prolonged hiccup. All those turnovers against East Tennessee State. No D in the first 20 minutes against Oklahoma State. The cold streak against Xavier.

You can't get away with such flaws forever. Villanova won't let them. Something tells me foul trouble takes a bite out of DuJuan Blair's tuckus.

VILLANOVA 64, PITTSBURGH 62.

Missouri played over its head, out of its mind, etc. to beat Memphis. It's going to take another game of that caliber to beat UConn.

That's not gonna happen. UConn is capable of taking it up (or down, as necessary) another notch beyond what it needed to beat Purdue. The Huskies are a reflection of their coach, and Jim Calhoun is strutting around like Robert Conrad in those old battery ads, daring anybody to knock the chip off his shoulder. Every five years, UConn gets shipped west and wins it all.

The Nate Miles business is just a little extra motivation, that's all.

CONNECTICUT 89, MISSOURI 78.

The Madness, Day 5: It's Big! It's Dominant! It's East!

Agganis Lives — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 22:20:17 GMT

It's hard to say there's a Big East style or school of play. You can't call it the rung-and-gun conference, or the big bang conference, or the halfcourt conference.

Just call it dominant. Three for three last night, with the potential of snapping up five of the Elite Eight spots. How did West Virginia and Marquette screw up?

The scary part is, they won in different ways last night:

* UConn just came out and took care of Purdue early with an 8-0 run to open the game. The Huskies essentially toyed with the Boilermakers the whole game; they didn't blow Purdue out, but was this game even in doubt, even when Purdue had a couple of chances to tie the game with a three early in the second half? Once they shut off Robbie Hummel (15 points before the final TV timeout of the first half; two after) and their offensive cold spell subsided, game over.

* Xavier didn't mind getting down with Pittsburgh in a rock fight until Levance Fields landed a couple of those jaggedy-edged ones in the final minute. First, he threw down as cold a three (casually, after having to retrieve a loose ball in his backcourt) as I've seen in ages. Then, with DeJuan Blair wandering out to the top of the key as a defensive distraction, he picked B.J. Raymond and turned it into a layup that effectively closed the show. If only the Panthers could cut out their dead spots, such as the one that allowed Xavier an eight-point halftime lead.

* I still haven't quite decided whether the Villanova defense was that good or the Duke shooting was that bad. Whatever...the Wildcats dominated the boards and left the Dookies completely discombobulated. However, I blame the NCAA's trucked-in court for part of Gerald Henderson's atrocious 1-for-14 night. It would've been nice if he had gotten to play on the same historic parquet his dad did as a Celtic.

And the boys from the Show-Me State showed me something. Given Mizzou's first-round crash in the Big 12 and struggles in the first two rounds, there was legitimate reason to question whether the Columbia Tigers were for real. They outran, outpressed and out-Memphised Memphis. The Calipari legions made a great comeback, slashing a 24-point deficit to six in the final minute-plus, but I hate to harp on that broken record...18-for-32 at the foul line doesn't cut it in the rare air of the Sweet 16, even if I'm giving Tyreke Evans my Player of the Night honors for his 33 points.

Looking ahead to tonight:

The Big East will make up 50 percent of the Elite Eight field.

Forget the 12th seed...Arizona's got plenty of talent, even though the Wildcats don't always play up to it. They will do everything in their power tonight to get the "interim" removed from coach Russ Pennell's title.

That said, Louisville's just got too much. They simply wear people out physically, whether's it's banging halfcourt or charging down in. Rick Pitino's figured out when to step on the gas and when to relax his foot, and the Cardinals pull away in the final minutes.

LOUISVILLE 85, ARIZONA 73.

Michigan State's as fundamentally sound as ever, but doesn't quite offer the solid inside-outside punch of Cole Aldrich (the clubhouse leader for the tournament's Most Outstanding Player) and Sherron Collins. Being the defending champ means something, and the Jayhawks always seem to play better when they're not the top seed. The power of the blue jerseys.

KANSAS 74, MICHIGAN STATE 71.

Hey, Big East haters! Finally got one for you!

Jim Boeheim's used to a short rotation, but I've always believed a seven-man unit as one short of what a Final Four team needs. Given the emotional run they've had and all that overtime they've had this month, tonight might be the night the Orange run out of gas.

Blake Griffin: the new, improved Tyler Hansbrough (with more bounce). And besides, the Big 12's having a danged fine year, too.

OKLAHOMA 78, SYRACUSE 63.

Gonzaga looked like an Elite Eight team in November. The Zags' December dip dropped them from the pedestal and provided enough R&R to crawl back into it again - they've been terrific since an embarassing February loss to Memphis.

But with Ty Lawson back at full speed, is there any beating North Carolina? The Heels are a little bigger, a little faster, a little more experienced. Make sure you've got a fan by your TV set - they'll be running from the get-go.

NORTH CAROLINA 94, GONZAGA 87.

The Madness, Day 5 picks: Messing with the wrong guy

Agganis Lives — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 16:08:08 GMT

Want some easy money tonight?

Find some poor sucker who thinks UConn will be distracted by this whole Nate Miles recruiting contacts mess and is entirely convinced the House of Calhoun comes tumbling down.

C'mon, do you really think one of the biggest badarses who's ever walked a Division 1 sideline is going to let his team be distracted by two days of breathless hype?

One, it doesn't affect a thing about this season; Miles never played a game in Storrs and washed out before the season ever begun. UConn probably cooperates with the NCAA, and offers a penalty (maybe the loss of a scholarship for the next season or two). They're smart enough to take the punishment and move on.

Two, although Jim took some hits in the non-sports media (and a scolding from the governor) over his combative stance with a reporter who questioned his salary at a postgame presser, he's got probably as much stroke as any coach in the country. Water off his back. (And if it gets too much, he's 66 and has all the money he needs - he can just retire, citing legitimate health reasons.)

Three, this is a team capable of pummeling Purdue. Look what the Huskies did to Chatanooga and Texas A&M without having this kind of fire lit under them. The Boilermakers deserve a little more respect than I've given them so far, but under these circumstances...

CONNECTICUT 89, PURDUE 61.

Memphis-Missouri...potential six-digit game? Possible, though not likely. The Tigers from Columbia were slowed to a crawl and blew a 16-point lead against a Marquette team with a well below 100 percent Domenic James. They haven't exactly plowed through the tournament.

The Tigers from B.B. King and Issac Hayes country took their wakeup call in Round 1, then ran rings around Maryland. If they don't get caught up in anticipating a monster game with UConn Saturday, they roll.

MEMPHIS 92, MISSOURI 78.

Sean Miller was a scrapper in his days at Pittsburgh's point guard. He's bringing a Xavier team full of them tonight. The Musketeers have done a remarkable job of pulling themselves together after taking a nosedive in the final month of the regular season, which put them high on the list of high seeds ripe for an upset.

The Panthers, however, finally showed me something Sunday. They stumbled through the first round, then allowed themselves to get caught in a track meet with Oklahoma State in the first half. After making it safely to the locker room with a tie, they woke up and let the air out of the ball...and OSU. DuJuan Blair has been the tough guy that twice powered Pitt past UConn, and he's getting the outside help when he needs it.

PITTSBURGH 70, XAVIER 63.

Hey, Villanova's got an inside-outside game. The Wildcats didn't get as much hype this year as they did in the days of the four-guard lineup, but better balance makes them the stealth threat to escape with a national title. Kinda' like the '85 team.

Duke, meanwhile, is just a classic Sweet 16 team. They have the shooting and defense to crash the Final Four if it all comes together, but where's the leadership? It's a heritage program that's gone a little stale right now, although with the national team obligations gone, Coach K may be able to inject something new into it by next year.

VILLANOVA 83, DUKE 78.

The Madness, Day 4: Right where Pitino wanted 'em

Agganis Lives — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 01:52:23 GMT

Rick Pitino certainly wasn't pushing the panic button with under eight minutes left when he called time with Siena on a 12-0 run that seized a 63-59 lead.

We Providence fans just knew Rick would find a way to steal that game back for Louisville, for he's been to the Second Round Late Deficit Against A Big Underdog Rodeo before. Today may just have been the near-death experience a Final Four team needs on the way there.

I thank Pitino, and his then-point guard Billy Donovan, for inspiring the near-death theory. In three of its four games in the '87 Southeast Regional, Providence was virtually untouched, including its surprisingly easy Elite Eight romp past top-seeded Georgetown. But the game we'll never forget came in the second round against Austin Peay, which had shocked Illinois in the first round after Dick Vitale had promised to stand on his head if that happened (he tried in the ESPN studio, anyway).

Trailing by 10 with four and a half minutes left, Pitino took a TO and read the Friars a combination of the riot act and the Sermon on the Mount. A bunch of threes later (and a couple of AP missed free throws in the final seconds of regulation), Providence pulled out an overtime win. My voice has not recovered from that day.

Substitute Terrence Williams and Earl Clark for Billy the Kid, and that old Pitino magic worked again against a Siena team that Just. Would. Not. Go. Away. Williams pounded home 24 points and 15 rebounds in a Player of the Day performance - after skipping across the court prior to the game, he convinced his teammates and his coach their season would not end today.

Back in his Providence days, Pitino would run and press for 40 minutes if he could get away with it, with a bunch of bodies not quite as athletic as he has at Louisville. Now, the press is there when he needs it. And it kills.

Count the days in hopes of a North Carolina-Louisville Final Four matchup. If it happens, it'll be one for the ages.

A few other thoughts:

* If only James Harden wasn't so danged unselfish. It wouldn't have killed Arizona State for him to jack up a couple more shots or drive a couple more times. As great a job as Syracuse did collapsing on him in the zone, there were holes he and the Sun Devils didn't take advantage of.

* The triple double with blocks is even more dominating than the one with assists. After Cole Aldrich's two monster games in Dayton, my advice to Michigan State is push the pace and keep driving. Getting the big fella in foul trouble is probably the way to beat an erratic Kansas squad that has decided it's not yet ready to give up the championship belt.

* A tale of two halves: Pitt and Oklahoma State couldn't miss in the first 20 minutes. The second 20 minutes was more like old-school Panther mud wrestling, and Sam Young was the only guy who could keep up that kind of offensive pace. Now if Pitt could ever win a Sweet 16 game...

* ...and I suspect they will, but it'll be fun to see Sean Miller go up against his alma mater. To me, Xavier looked like the inevitable fourth seed entering the tournament on a month-long downswing that made it ripe for an upset, but the Musketeers pulled it together and threw sand into the gears of an already rust-bucket Wisconsin offense.

* Before we start throwing rocks at Missouri coach Mike Anderson and guard J.T. Tiller for their roles in the final moments against Marquette, would you substitute a 76 percent foul shooter for a guy who shot only 68 (Kim English) and had spent most of the second half on the bench?

* Think Lazar Hayward has already received an e-mail from Chris Webber after his inbounds pass catastrophe? If Marquette pulled that game out after rallying from 16 down, I could not not have given Jerel McNeal (30 points) Player of the Day.

* Arizona in the Sweet 16? And Russ Pennell is still "interim" coach? To paraphrase a famous incident from the 1989 tournament, an Arizona man is coaching Arizona on an improbable run here. Smartest thing Pennell can do when this is over is ask the U of A administration whether Dan Rooney gave a damn that Mike Tomlin fit nobody's definition of "big name."

* We have a Stephen Curry Award winner: Western Kentucky's Orlando Mendez-Valdez. I'm not sure I want to rename the award for him next year, though - that's a mouthful.