JFro's Sports Journalism and Lists

How 'Bout Those Atlanta Hawks?

JFro — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 00:16:29 GMT

Who knew that Jamal Crawford would make this much of a difference?

I loved Jamal during his days with my lowly New York Knicks, but I didn't think he'd be the one to put this particular Hawks' unit over the top. Sure it's early in the regular season, but heading into tonight's action Atlanta is atop the Eastern Conference standings.

Good for them, and passionate head coach Mike Woodson. He doesn't strike me as much of an X's and O's guy, but he brings energy, enthusiasm, and an especially positive attitude. I pegged the Hawks as a playoff team in my preseason predictions, but I felt they didn't do enough during the offseason to truly compete with the Celtics, Magic, and Cavs.

Maybe I was wrong.

Maybe.

It's still too early to tell, but I have to give Atlanta credit for what its done to this point. Crawford has given Coach Woodson another one-on-one scorer to complement team MVP Joe Johnson, and the right amount of shot opportunities are there for Jamal. PF/C Al Horford is off to a flying statistical start, as is freakishly athletic swingman Josh Smith aka "J Smooth."

I don't think the Hawks' organization is happy with what they're getting from F Marvin Williams (especially considering the fact that he was once the No. 2 overall selection in the NBA Draft), but at least he doesn't get in the way of Crawford, Johnson, and Smith. Williams has a considerable amount of natural ability, but he's passive and seems almost afraid to elevate himself to the next level. Perhaps he was overestimated by the scouts and executives around the league.

Regardless, Atlanta is in great shape right now. Mike Bibby continues to provide a combination of leadership and perimeter scoring, and he's handled the addition of Crawford quite well. Instead of taking it as a slap in the face and a slight on his ability at this stage of his lengthy career, Bibby has handled the situation like a true professional, thinking of Jamal as a guard who can help the Hawks improve their collective performance.

And that he has.

Will the Hawks be in this very same position at the end of the regular season?

I doubt it...but who am I to say?

Prove me wrong, Atlanta. Please do.

("JFro," aka John Frascella, is the author of "Theo-logy: How a Boy Wonder Led the Red Sox to the Promised Land." It's the first full-length book centered on Boston Red Sox's popular general manager Theo Epstein. Preview or purchase it online at Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble or Borders. It's currently stocked in Barnes and Noble stores throughout the U.S. John has also done some work for NBA.com. Check him out on Twitter as well.)

World Series Game 6: Preview and Prediction

JFro — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 19:05:09 GMT

Game 4 was an instant classic, and Game 5 got preeetty interesting near the end, so it's a tough act to follow for Game 6. With the New York Yankees leading 3-2 in their heart-pounding series with the Philadelphia Phillies, it's Old vs. Older on the mound tonight: Andy Pettitte for the Yanks, and Pedro Martinez for the Phils.

While both hurlers failed to impress me with their "stuff" during the regular season (though their numbers were more than acceptable), I must admit that I've been pleasantly surprised by their collective success in the postseason. Both Pettitte and Pedro had excellent playoff track records coming in, but it's a little different when you're approaching 40 years old and the end of your career(s).

Or maybe it isn't different at all.

Pettitte brings a 3-0 record in over 24 innings of '09 playoff work to the hill this evening, while Pedro has allowed only three runs in 13 innings. Neither throws as hard as they did during their respective glory days, but that's hardly surprising. While they have lost some zip over the years, both Pettitte and Pedro have developed a greater understanding of their craft, a phenomenon that veterans like Jamie Moyer and Greg Maddux have articulated in the past. Tonight's starting pitchers understand their own strengths and weaknesses, and those of the opposing hitters.

But that doesn't necessarily guarantee them success. Take a look at the last three scores in this World Series: 8-5, 7-4, and 8-6. That's 38 runs. The Philly and Yankee bats have come alive, and I highly doubt that Game 6 will be a pitchers' duel between two of the more well-respected veterans in baseball.

I think both teams would be happy if their starter got them around six innings, and three runs. Even six innings, four runs would keep their team in the game, taking into account the offensive emergence of the past three games.

Any way you slice this one, it's a coin flip. I think Pettitte is the physically stronger of the two at this stage in their careers, and I still can't trust Ryan Madson or Brad Lidge at the back of Philly's bullpen. In the end, neither Pettitte or Pedro will get into the seventh inning, and it will come down to the relievers. As is often the case, no one has seemed to have an answer for Mariano Rivera this postseason, so the Yankees have the advantage.

In addition, despite surrendering the game-tying home run to Pedro Feliz, Joba Chamberlain's stuff looked explosive in his last appearance. He threw his fastball with confidence, and it was bursting through the zone around 96 mph. If he can command his sharp slider he should be effective in an expected appearance tonight.

I'm taking Mo and Joba over Madson and Lidge right now, and it's probably going to come down to that. I'm giving Pettitte the slight edge in the starting pitching department, in spite of his short rest. I think the Phillies have been playing with fire when it comes to Pedro, and a lineup as potent as New York's is bound to get to him at some point.

Hey, I want to see a Game 7, but logic is telling me it's Yankees 6, Phillies 4 this evening. Congrats to the Yankees and their fans, if that's the way it shakes down.

World Series Game 4: A Thing of Beauty.

JFro — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 06:55:02 GMT

What a ballgame tonight. Here I am, a Mets fan with considerable disdain for both the Phillies and Yankees, and yet I was sitting at the edge of my friend's couch, hanging on every single pitch. I had chills running up my spine to the back of my neck on several occasions.

World Series Game 4 represented everything we love about baseball. Everything that drew us to the greatest game in the world as kids; everything that keeps us connected to America's Pastime, decades and decades later. There were a number of clutch performances, and a handful of classic, timeless moments.

I'll start with Johnny Damon. After Brad Lidge recorded two outs rather quickly in the top of the 9th, Damon could have easily rolled over like his immediate predecessors. I say "easily" because I'm a Mets fan -- when bad teams hit into two quick outs, the third one tends to come just as quickly. Well, the Yankees are just the opposite. Damon, the true "professional hitter" (as the cliche goes) that he is, worked a marvelous at bat against the Phillies' closer, one that eventually concluded with an opposite-field single to left.

Then he really made his mark.

Damon, completely aware of Lidge's slow delivery from the stretch (great coaching and player preparation), took off on his first pitch to Mark Teixeira. Johnny swiped second with ease...

And then it got even more interesting.

In what initially seemed to be a costly baserunning blunder, Damon took off for third base -- but the ball was still in the infield. At first it seemed that Damon thought it went through, but we soon realized something quite different...

No one was covering third base.

Damon quickly and astutely realized that fact, advancing himself to third and placing intense pressure on Lidge. The latter proceeded to drill Teixeira (who took it rather well), leaving the game in the hands of Alex Rodriguez...

Enter Hero #2.

Lidge opened A-Rod up with a well-placed fastball down, and on the inner portion of the plate, taking an 0-1 lead in the count. That was the last of the positives for the Phillies in this game, as Lidge and catcher Carlos Ruiz proceeded to make a terrible, potentially season-crushing decision:

They came back with the fastball inside.

No. No. No. You can't give a hitter like Rodriguez a look at a 92-mph fastball on pitch one of an at bat, and then come back immediately with an eerily similar pitch. Even if Lidge and Ruiz thought A-Rod would be looking offspeed, that's no excuse for not using the 0-1 count to their advantage. Taking the early lead in the count, the 0-1 pitch was their opportunity to toy with Rodriguez, and give him the chance to expand the zone. Lidge's best pitch is his near-famous slider, and yet he never went to it against A-Rod.

That cost him, as Alex smoked an incredibly clutch double to left.

Jorge Posada followed up with an equally important two-run single. That three-run cushion was more than enough for Mariano Rivera (are you surprised?), who made some of Philly's better hitters look like average little leaguers in the bottom of the 9th.

It's late and I'm getting tired, but before I go I'd like to shout out Pedro Feliz, Chase Utley, Ryan Madson, and Joe Blanton. All four provided key performances for the Phillies, though they eventually went for naught.

Sorry Philly fans, but the Yankees earned this one.

NBA Preseason Predictions

JFro — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 17:37:21 GMT

It was an interesting but ultimately insignificant offseason for the NBA, as many of last season's premier teams will go deep into the playoffs again in 2010. A handful of the middle-of-the-pack teams made some helpful acquisitions, but will they be enough for a serious run at a championship?

At first glance it doesn't appear that way, but you'll have to read on to make that determination for yourself. To make these projections I ranked every major contributor at every position, and then factored in team defense, basketball IQ, and head coaches. What you'll read below are the results of my mathematical system.

Many thanks if you've also read my MLB and NFL predictions in the past year. That said, let's get it poppin'...

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division:

1. Boston Celtics (68-14)

2. Toronto Raptors (44-38)

3. New Jersey Nets (38-44)

4. Philadelphia 76ers (34-48)

5. New York Knicks (30-52)

Notes: The Celtics should be a dominant force this season, as they welcome their emotional and physical leader -- Kevin Garnett -- back to the floor. Boston has added battle-tested veteran Rasheed Wallace as a security blanket for KG, making the Celtics a team with very few weaknesses...if any. They are still in the market for a backup point guard, but Eddie House and Paul Pierce can handle the ball during Rajon Rondo's limited time on the pine. I love this team defensively, and Doc Rivers has really grown on me as a head coach.

The Raptors added versatile swingman Hedo Turkoglu, and they should improve enough to cruise into a middle playoff spot. Though Jose Calderon and Andrea Bargnani will likely continue their offensive development, Toronto doesn't have the size or toughness to contend with the powerhouses of the Eastern Conference (Celtics, Cavs, Magic). They are a finesse team; dare I say "soft."

As long as Devin Harris stays healthy, the Nets should surprise people by contending for one of the final postseason positions in the East. Brook Lopez is one of the only true, young centers in the game, and Courtney Lee will be a complementary backcourt partner for Harris. Small forward Chris Douglas-Roberts was one of the NBA's leading preseason scorers (though that doesn't always mean much), and he should help the Nets in their fastbreak attack. They are no lock for the playoffs, but they should be right there with the Pistons, Pacers, and Bobcats.

The loss of Andre Miller hurts the 76ers, and the Knicks have a bunch of selfish, low IQ players. Honestly, anything can happen as far as the seventh and eighth seeds go, but my math shows that these two teams will be on the outside looking in.

Central Division:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers (60-22)

2. Chicago Bulls (42-40)

3. Indiana Pacers (36-46)

4. Detroit Pistons (35-47)

5. Milwaukee Bucks (23-59)

Notes: Sure Cavs' GM Danny Ferry was active this offseason, but I didn't particularly approve of his transactions. Shaq is still one of the elite, pure centers in the game, but there's very little competition in that category. Looking at the last two NBA champions, the Lakers and Celtics, neither of their centers (Andrew Bynum and Kendrick Perkins) are one of the top three players on their team. All you need now is an athletic, skilled power forward (Pau Gasol and Kevin Garnett), and the ability to blow top opponents out with explosiveness. The Cavs lack that explosiveness. They are still ultimately a halfcourt team, and they are forced to play too many close games in the playoffs because they don't have that pull-away talent on their roster. The top three teams of the '08-09 postseason -- the Lakers, Magic, and Nuggets -- could all light up their opponents by utilizing the fastbreak, athleticism, and pure talent. The Cavs didn't have that ability last year, and they don't have it again this time around. But they still have LeBron, and should win 60 games in the regular season.

I was a little surprised at the Bulls' stagnation this offseason, but their young, homegrown talent should be enough for another back-end playoff spot. Though I like that the Pistons are trying to change their offense structure with the acquisitions of Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva, they didn't stand out collectively in the rankings. They should be in a similar situation to that of the Pacers at the end of the year.

Along with the Kings and Timberwolves, the Milwaukee Bucks project as one of the NBA's worst for '09-10. Here's their expected starting lineup: Luke Ridnour, Michael Redd, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Hakim Warrick, and Andrew Bogut.

'Nuff said.

Southeast Division:

1. Orlando Magic (57-25)

2. Washington Wizards (54-28)

3. Atlanta Hawks (43-39)

4. Charlotte Bobcats (37-45)

5. Miami Heat (29-53)

Notes: I must admit -- I strayed from my system a little bit here. For my MLB and NFL predictions of the past year, I stuck with the rankings and subsequent math. It worked out pretty well, but I've decided to add overriding logic to the equation in this example. After completing the rankings, the Wizards came out on top of the Magic; I'm sorry, logic tells me that's not going to happen. Washington made the excellent trade for Randy Foye and Mike Miller, and improved at head coach with Flip Saunders, but there's no way they are jumping ahead of Superman and his new sidekick (Vince Carter). I expect the Wizards to play better team ball than they have in the past, but Saunders won't be able to completely control the three-headed monster of Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antawn Jamison. All three are inherently selfish offensive players, and they always seem to be more concerned about their personal statistics than the win-loss record of their team. Those aren't my kind of players, so I'm dropping Washington to second in the division.

Like the Bulls in the Central Division, the Hawks were pretty stagnant this offseason. Again they'll be a mid-to-late playoff team that exits within the first two rounds of the postseason. The Bobcats and Heat were also pretty quiet, which gives me little reason to believe that they'll make drastic improvements. Specifically, the Heat have one of the worst benches in the league. All the pressure to score is on Dwyane Wade and Michael Beasley, and Erik Spoelstra -- c'mon, this guy is a real coach?

Western Conference

Northwest Division:

1. Portland Trail Blazers (61-21)

2. Denver Nuggets (55-27)

3. Utah Jazz (48-34)

4. Oklahoma City Thunder (31-51)

5. Minnesota Timberwolves (20-62)

Notes: The Blazers certainly have the deepest and most talented team in this division, but will Nate McMillan play the right guys? The Nicolas Batum experiment at SF is still going on, and it's unnecessary. McMillan has a very solid two-way forward at his disposal, and his name is Travis Outlaw. Rudy Fernandez and Martell Webster should provide the swingman depth, and Batum shouldn't even be in the picture. Also, did the Blazers really have to trade for Andre Miller if McMillan wasn't planning on starting him? Steve Blake is still his man at this point in time, and sophomore Jerryd Bayless is now buried on the depth chart. As a friend of mine said to me the other day, "The Blazers are a headache to think about" -- and he's right. Still, I expect a strong year from them because of athleticism, length, defense, and depth.

Terrible offseason for the Nuggets. J.R. Smith is suspended for the first seven games of the season, and Arron Afflalo is the best Denver has as a replacement? Woof. Someone was sleeping at the wheel over the summer. Their lack of depth scares me, particularly in the backcourt, and they still have injury-prone big men in Nene Hilario and Kenyon Martin. With everyone healthy and free of suspension, this is still a potentially explosive team...but will they be intact?

Little has changed in Utah, and it's very likely that the Thunder and Timberwolves will follow the Jazz, bringing up the rear. As if the T'Wolves weren't bad enough to begin with, now they're dealing with injuries to two of their big guns: Al Jefferson and Kevin Love. It's going to be a long, long season in Minnesota.

Pacific Division:

1. Los Angeles Lakers (66-16)

2. Los Angeles Clippers (48-34)

3. Golden State Warriors (45-37)

4. Phoenix Suns (40-42)

5. Sacramento Kings (24-58)

Notes: The Ron Artest acquisition will obviously improve the Lakers' team defense, but it may not do much for them offensively. Artest will occupy the offensive role that was Trevor Ariza's, and the latter really settled in during the postseason. Ariza was providing the kick-out option for Kobe on his drives, and he was drilling threes with surprising regularity. While Artest had a solid year shooting the three in '08-09, I've never thought of him as a pure outside shooter. He shouldn't hurt the Lakers, but there's a possibility that he'll disappoint his fantasy owners. Ultimately what I'm saying is, the Artest move doesn't put the Lakers over the top. When it comes down to it, expect nothing less than a classic battle with the Celtics.

Ahh, a division with two surprise teams: the Clippers and Warriors. The Clips employed the addition-by-subtraction strategy when they dumped Zach Randolph, an immensely talented-but-cancerous player. Blake Griffin will provide a breath of fresh air for this laughingstock of a franchise, and there are other youthful players in Al Thornton and Eric Gordon. Baron Davis and Marcus Camby should provide the veteran leadership, though they haven't been entirely reliable in the past.

As for the Warriors, head coach Don Nelson has finally opened his eyes: you cannot play run-and-gun with a bunch of small guys and expect to do any long-term damage. He's going bigger and more traditional with Andris Biedrins and Ronny Turiaf up front, a decision that slides rangy Anthony Randolph down to small forward. This will make the Warriors better defensively, and they can still run the break because Biedrins, Turiaf, and Randolph are athletic big men. Two fantastic scorers, Monta Ellis and Stephen Jackson, round out Nelson's starting lineup. This team is deep as well, with Stephen Curry, Corey Maggette, and Anthony Morrow gunning off the bench.

Steve Kerr continues to do a horrific job in Phoenix, and no one expects even a drop of success from the Kings.

Southwest Division:

1. San Antonio Spurs (63-19)

2. Dallas Mavericks (59-23)

3. New Orleans Hornets (41-41)

4. Memphis Grizzlies (33-49)

5. Houston Rockets (30-52)

Notes: Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess aren't the type of acquisitions that make you say, "Oh damn! The Spurs are awesome!" but they are helpful puzzle pieces for an organization that marginalized the past two seasons. The Spurs' slow, grinding, halfcourt style was demolished by the new athletic/explosive style of the premier teams. I don't think San Antonio will push the ball much more than they have in the past, but at least they have better options in their conservative offense. Jefferson provides the fourth scorer they've yearned for; the fourth scorer who eventually becomes No. 3 when Manu Ginobili gets hurt. As for McDyess, last season he showed me that he still has some good years left. He was one of the league's best in rebounds per minute.

I like what Dallas did this offseason, picking up Shawn Marion, Drew Gooden, and Tim Thomas. Marion brings a new dimension to a team that was stuck in its ways (similarly to the Spurs), and he should really thrive while fastbreaking with Jason Kidd. Kidd should help "The Matrix" return to the form of his Phoenix Suns days, and Dallas' collective pace will subsequently quicken. Their issue right now is Josh Howard's health, and that's something to monitor as the season progresses. In the end, they'll need him at full strength.

Hornets are stuck like the Bulls, Hawks, and Jazz, and there's little to say about the Grizzlies and Rockets. The Grizz had an interesting offseason bringing in Zach Randolph and Allen Iverson, but if that doesn't sound like an episode of The Jail Blazers of Memphis then I don't know what does.

Postseason:

Eastern playoff teams (in order): Celtics, Cavs, Magic, Wizards, Raptors, Hawks, Bulls, Nets

Western playoff teams: Lakers, Spurs, Blazers, Mavericks, Nuggets, Jazz, Clippers, Warriors

Eastern Conference Finals: Celtics over Magic (4-2)

Western Conference Finals: Lakers over Spurs (4-2)

NBA Finals: Celtics over Lakers (4-3)

And that's that. I welcome and encourage all comments and opinions below. Bring on the debate, please...

MLB League Championship Predictions

JFro — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 17:31:14 GMT

So I batted .750 (3-for-4) in my first playoff predictions post; I must admit that the Dodgers surprised me. That's a big "what if?" series because of the embarrassing Matt Holliday blunder, but the fact remains that Joe Torre's men swept Tony LaRussa's boys. My respect goes out to Joe -- he managed a helluva series. Major improvement over his suspect performance in last year's postseason.

Moving on to the LCS, let's start with the National League this time. Saving the best for last; no offense Philly and L.A...

National League Championship Series: Phillies vs. Dodgers

Here we go again. As most of us already know, these two teams met in the NLCS last season. The rematch is good for the game, though. Last year's NLCS was extremely entertaining, and a little east coast/west coast rivalry developed. Not like the hip-hop rivalry; there will be less fighting and bloodshed, I promise.

This time around, it's really tough to call. I want to say Phillies with my initial instinct, but let's look a little closer at the personnel before any conclusions are made.

Offensively, it's difficult for me to bet against Philadelphia. Even their weak links, Pedro Feliz and Carlos Ruiz, are far from dead wood. Ruiz actually performed quite well in the series against Colorado. Of course those two play second fiddle to the core guys: Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth, and Shane Victorino. Every time I see those six names together, I think, "Wow." That has to result in a migraine for opposing pitchers.

However, neither the Dodgers or Phillies lit it up in the opening round of the playoffs. The Dodgers maxed out at five runs, and the Phillies at six. While those run totals don't jump off the page at us, we need to bare in mind that production in the postseason is a whole 'nother story. These hitters are facing some of the premier pitchers in the game, throwing with adrenaline, focus, and maximum preparation. In the National League, five or six runs is often more than enough to walk away with a playoff victory.

Though the Dodgers were adequate offensively in the LDS, I'm sticking with the Phillies in this category. Manny Ramirez looked tired and sluggish against the Cardinals, and while Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp are dangerous bats, their youth hinders their consistency. Ethier constantly gets beat inside with good fastballs, and Kemp chases two-strike breaking balls in the dirt far too often. There's no doubt that they can pop one here or there, but in a tight spot I'd rather see Ryan Howard or Chase Utley up there.

The Dodgers may have a game where they bust out for eight or nine runs against Philly's pitching, but I'll take the latter's offense over the course of the long series.

Speaking of pitching, both teams started off the LDS with a pair of lefties -- Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels for Philly, Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw for L.A. Lee is certainly the best of the four, but the advantage for Wolf and Kershaw is that three of the Phillies' power bats are left-handed: Howard, Utley, and Ibanez. The Dodgers, on the other hand, will have key right-handed hitters in Manny, Kemp, Casey Blake, Russell Martin, and even Ronnie Belliard to combat Lee and Hamels. I do believe the Dodgers will get to Hamels in Game 1, but it will be an entirely different story when Lee gets the ball in the series.

The middle games of the NLCS will be riddled with wild cards and question marks. The Dodgers have the Vicente Padilla/Chad Billingsley/Jon Garland situation, and the Phillies have J.A. Happ, Joe Blanton, and Pedro Martinez. I much prefer the Dodgers' options to the Phillies, as Happ and Pedro would really worry me in this series. The stakes are so high, and I don't think either guy has a good enough arsenal right now. Padilla displayed surprisingly electric stuff in his start against the Cardinals; I can hardly imagine myself using the word "electric" to describe any of Philly's options.

Moving to the bullpens, the Dodgers have as significant an advantage as the Phillies do offensively. After Mariano Rivera, I think Jonathan Broxton is the best closer in baseball. Joe Torre has flamethrowing setup guys in righty Ronald Belisario, and lefty Hong Chih-Kuo. Former effective closer George Sherrill is also in the mix.

Conversely, the Phillies' bullpen performance can be likened to one season-long, nauseating roller coaster ride. Things went fairly well against the Rockies, but Charlie Manuel is very reliant upon three guys: Ryan Madson, Scott Eyre, and Brad Lidge. Madson and Lidge are timebombs waiting to explode, and there's added pressure on Eyre because he's their only truly serviceable lefty in the pen. The Phillies don't have the depth or consistency of the Dodgers in the relief department.

In the end, it really could go either way. But I'll take a stand:

Los Angeles Dodgers over the Philadelphia Phillies, 4-3.

American League Championship Series: Angels vs. Yankees

Make no mistake about it, these are the top two teams in the game. This year's Angels and Yankees feature two of the more explosive lineups of the past decade, and they have talented-enough arms to complement their bats. The balance is there for both teams, the only question is...who has the edge?

Well, let's start off with starting pitching this time around. C.C. Sabathia is the best starter on either team, but no one is safe from disaster in this series. Given his postseason track record, and the fact that he's almost too fine with his pitches, too predictable in the strikezone, would you really be surprised if the powerful Angels handed him a beating?

I know I wouldn't. The same can be said of A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte for the Yankees, and John Lackey, Jered Weaver, and Scott Kazmir for the Angels. I honestly believe that these two lineups are so good, that quality pitchers can come with their best stuff on a given day, and still walk away with four or five earned runs in six innings. There are no easy outs on either team, and everyone is (at the very least) a serious threat for an extra-base hit.

Though Sabathia will have the home crowd supporting him in Game 1, I think he'd have a better chance to succeed on the road. The reasoning is simple: the Angels' home park is more forgiving for pitchers. I know I wouldn't want to face Torii Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero, Bobby Abreu, Kendry Morales, or even Juan Rivera (25 homers) at the Yankees' little league stadium. The Angels' pitchers will have the same issues with Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Hideki Matsui, Robinson Cano, and Johnny Damon.

As you can tell from those lists, the Yankees seem to have more raw, power threats. While that's certainly intimidating, it may not make much of a difference. In recent years the Yankees haven't strung together rallies in the postseason like they did in the past with Bernie Williams, Paul O'Neill, Tino Martinez and the rest of that group, a fact that indicates they are too reliant upon the longball. Those rallies were missing again in the Twins series, one in which they scored only four runs in Game 2 and 3. Even more disturbing is that they struggled against Carl Pavano for the vast majority of his start, and Pavano can't shine the shoes of the Angels' righties, Lackey and Weaver.

The Angels' offense should scare the Yankees because their hitters feed off of one another. They have scrappy, high-average contact hitters like Chone Figgins, Erick Aybar, and Maicer Izturis that complement their power threats. This is a very patient offense, something that should help them against Burnett, in particular.

Looking at the bullpens, I have to give the Yankees the edge. I've never been one to trust Brian Fuentes because of his wildness and sub-par offspeed stuff, and we're comparing him to Mariano Rivera here. Rivera's lost some velocity on his cutter, but as I mentioned briefly before, he's still the best and most reliable closer in the bigs. Though I'm not over-the-top obsessed with the Yankees' setup men -- Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain -- like everyone else seems to be, I'll still take them over Mike Scioscia's mix-and-match group.

The Yankees have the intimidating lineup and the bullpen advantage, but there's still one thing that I can't seem to get past...

This seems to be the Angels' year. They had injuries and the heartbreakingly tragic death of Nick Adenhart at the beginning of the season, and yet they perservered. They shook off the slow start and rose to their customary position atop the AL West. They swept their playoff nemesis in the Boston Red Sox, and now they're coming after a team that has struggled against them.

The Yankees' camaraderie has impressed me this season, and they certainly have more of a "team" than they've had in recent years, but I think the buck stops here...

Prediction: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim over New York Yankees, 4-2.

MLB Playoff Predictions: Round 1

JFro — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 18:07:55 GMT

I was planning to post earlier this morning, but I've been getting sidetracked all day. It's going to be a bit of a rush job, but I have to provide my analysis and predictions for this year's MLB postseason...

American League

Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees

Congratulations to the Twins on pulling out an incredible victory over the Tigers in last night's one-game playoff, but their playoff run will likely be short-lived. I'd love to see David slay Goliath, but it's very unrealistic given the personnel on both sides.

With the exception of RHP Nick Blackburn, I don't think any of Minnesota's starting pitchers can succeed against the potent Yankee lineup. Brian Duensing, Carl Pavano, and Scott Baker are all average (or worse) in the "stuff" department, and it doesn't help that some of them will be pitching at the Yankees' little league park. There's less pressure on Alex Rodriguez than there has been in the past, as Mark Teixeira is there to inherit some of the RISP situations.

Do I have my concerns about A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, and the possible fourth starter for the Yankees? Absolutely, yes. They are far from locks for lights out performances. However, there's a strong probability that the Yankees' offense will mash throughout the series, a scenario that would lower the expectations for New York's starting pitching. The Yankees have a clear bullpen advantage in this series, as well.

Prediction: Yankees win the series, 3-1.

Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

This should be a much more competitive series. The Red Sox have the starting pitching advantage with Jon Lester and Josh Beckett at the top of their rotation, but the Angels are right up there with the Yankees offensively. This is the best Angels' lineup that I've seen since they won the World Series with Garret Anderson, Troy Glaus, Tim Salmon and those fellas.

The Angels have pop dispersed throughout their lineup, and even their little guys -- guys like Maicer Izturis and Erick Aybar -- are having career offensive seasons and providing timely hitting when called upon. This is a unit that is clicking on all cylinders, and they have dangerous bats like Vladimir Guerrero, Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, and Kendry Morales.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, haven't been as prolific as they'd like to be offensively. That doesn't mean they can't scratch and claw for runs, though, and I expect them to stay tight with the Angels because of their pitching. In the end, it's going to be a coin-toss series, with the Angels having the higher postseason ceiling.

Prediction: Angels taking it, 3-2.

National League

Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Like the Red Sox/Angels series, I expect this one to be extremely tight and competitive. The Rockies are similarly structured to the Tampa Bay Rays of last season, which makes them a popular upside pick. I think they are certainly capable of pulling out this series, but it's difficult to argue against Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth, and Shane Victorino. The Phillies have an American League-style lineup, and they can explode at any time.

What also makes the Phillies dangerous, is the fact that the playoffs represent a fresh start. None of their regulars had batting averages over .300, and Rollins in particular had a forgettable year. That means they can start anew in the postseason, and shake off the cobwebs of a 162-game stretch of offensive inconsistency and frustration. They may strike out a lot, but no other NL team can rival the Phillies in pop.

Cliff Lee is the best starting pitcher on either team, but he's far from a safe bet against this hungry and talented Rockies' lineup. I think the rotations will cancel each other out, so it will come down to bullpens and timely hitting. While the Rockies have the clear advantage in regular season bullpen stats, the playoffs are a totally different animal. Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson will get a tabula rasa (clean slate), and all it takes is a little luck and momentum. I don't particularly trust CP Huston Street with the game on the line, either. I think his stuff is underwhelming for a one-inning reliever.

Prediction: Phillies squeak it out, 3-2.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks had Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. The 2004 Red Sox had Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling. I don't think the Chris Carpenter/Adam Wainwright combination is quite as good as those, but they're the closest out of this year's playoff teams. The middle portion of St. Louis' rotation worries me, but I expect them to silence the Dodgers' lineup in games 1 and 2.

I much prefer the Dodgers' bullpen to the Cardinals, but that's their only advantage in this series. St. Louis -- with an excellent mix of power, discipline, and bat control -- has a significantly more dangerous lineup. Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday will carry the load in the power department, but Mark DeRosa, Ryan Ludwick, Skip Schumaker, and Brendan Ryan are appropriate complements in Tony LaRussa's batting order. In addition, at this stage in their respective careers, LaRussa is a far superior manager to Torre. Joe is a regular season manager (patient for the long haul), while Tony is better prepared for specific situations and high-pressure, make-or-break decisions.

This could be an ass-backwards series in which the away team wins the first three games, but any way I look at it, the Cardinals seem to come out on top.

Prediction: Cardinals win comfortably, 3-1.

I wish you all the best of luck with your favorite teams.

Hear me discuss the MLB postseason on an AaronTorres-Sports.com podcast.

One-game playoff: Tigers and Twins

JFro — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 17:27:49 GMT

Everything is on the line for the Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins at 5:00 p.m. ET today, in a one-game playoff to determine the winner of the AL Central division. It's rookie right-hander Rick Porcello for the Tigers, and more experienced righty Scott Baker for the Twinkies.

Clearly the question on everybody's mind, who's it gonna be? Who has the advantage, and why?

Well, my money is on the Tigers. It's difficult to have faith in a 20-year old starting pitcher, but I don't believe today's playoff is going to come down to pitching. I expect a 7-5 or 6-4 victory for the Tigers, with neither starting pitcher "wow"ing their audience.

Porcello is a sinkerballer who attacks the strikezone and pitches to contact, while Baker is looking to collect more strikeouts, but doesn't necessarily succeed. Neither starter is spectacular, though both are serviceable. Baker has had the better second half of the two, but those statistics lose some of their luster when we're looking at a one-game-for-all-the-marbles situation.

Since both starting pitchers are right-handed, they'll have to be especially concerned about the left-handed hitters in the opposing lineups. Unfortunately for the youngster Porcello, Minnesota's top three hitters are lefties. The good news is that one of those lefties, former AL MVP Justin Morneau, is out of commission. The others, Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel, are more than ready to go. Kubel's been on an absolute tear of late.

On the other side, Baker will be wary of Curtis Granderson, the veteran Aubrey Huff, and Carlos Guillen (a switch-hitter). The Twins' lefties are better and more dangerous right now, but the Tigers have Miguel Cabrera in their possession, and it doesn't matter who is pitching against him. Cabrera, a right-handed clubber, is -- in my opinion -- the second-best hitter in the major leagues. He trails only Albert Pujols, as far as natural ability and versatility to hit with power to all fields go.

In the end, I like the Tigers because they've been the better team all season. They've collapsed in the final month, but The Little Engine That Could can only chug for so long. The Twins failed to put any offense together in last year's one-game playoff, and they had Justin Morneau that time around. He's out of the picture this time, and it's difficult to replace a bat of that caliber when the season hangs in the balance.

Minnesota has the homefield advantage, and the place will be rockin', but the Tigers have a better opportunity to explode offensively. The Twins' offensive performance of the past two weeks has been an aberration in comparison to their past three seasons, and I'm not quite sure they can strike lightning in a bottle again.

As I said earlier, it's Tigers 6, Twins 4. Best of luck to the fans of both teams.

Let me run the Mets...I'm serious.

JFro — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 04:22:25 GMT

[WARNING: This is an extremely long post, and is only intended for die-hard Mets fans who are soul-searching after this debacle of a year.]

...Anyone can look back at a disastrous season and say they would have changed this, that, and the other thing. But it's a horse of a different color when you can predict disasters before they happen...kind of like Nostradamus.

Well, it seems that I was the Nostradamus of the New York Mets' 2009 season. I'm not afraid to say that I know more about the current state of Major League Baseball than both Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel, so maybe I should be the general manager/on-field manager of the Mets.

Similar to the opening, anyone can boast without substantiation. I won't take the easy way out. This post will be the equivalent of talking $hit and backing it up. Check out these quotes from my blog posts, and the corresponding dates:

(1) About Jerry Manuel, from September 28, 2008. Source:

"I was at Shea today, and as soon as I looked up and saw that Schoeneweis was in the game, I told everyone I was with that our season was over. I meant it. Completely. The funny thing is, I'm 100% positive that I was far from the only Mets fan thinking that. Don't we all know that Schoeneweis is a piece of garbage??? Jerry doesn't. I'm going to throw up when he gets his contract extension. The hits just keep on comin'...OK let's get away from the most clueless manager in the game now."

Wouldn't most of us want to take back Manuel's contract extension at this point? I took it back before it was even offered to him.

(2) About Ryan Church, from September 28, 2008. Source:

"RYAN CHURCH. Is this guy kidding me?? I've never seen a "professional hitter" strike out on three consecutive pitches so often in my entire life. He doesn't even put together quality at bats; it's a combination of a lack of adjustments and a heart as big as an olive. Ryan Church is a gutless loser disguised as a ballplayer. An absolute disgrace to clutch hitters everywhere. I wouldn't mind if he was bagging groceries at Stop and Shop next year. Get him out of my face."

I gave up on Church long before the 2009 season, but it took the front office a little too long. We had to suffer through him missing third base and costing us a victory when we were still in the thick of the standings, and stranding runners in scoring position as if that were his sole purpose on this planet. The Mets' front office lucked out and got Jeff Francoeur in his place, but they never should've shown so much faith in Church to begin with. Notice that Bobby Cox barely uses him in Atlanta. He knows baseball.

(3) About our starting pitching, from January 7, 2009. Source:

"I'm afraid we've scared Derek Lowe away, and that in itself is a tragedy. On this market, Lowe is exactly what we needed: durable, consistent, a legitimate No. 2 starter on a NL team, and unshakable in the clutch. Now it appears we may be left with Oliver Perez again...My hope is that we find a way to reconnect with Lowe, and then sign Jon Garland as well. 1-Santana, 2- Lowe, 3-Pelfrey, 4-Garland, 5-Maine = much better."

Garland was dangling out there for months, yet he was seemingly never in the discussion for the Mets. Omar Minaya never mentioned him, in spite of the fact that his asking price dipped with time. I said Derek Lowe and Jon Garland, the Mets' front office said Oliver Perez and Tim Redding. Let's go to the stats...

Lowe: 15-9, 4.55 ERA, 33 games started, 190 IP, 1.48 WHIP

Perez: 3-4, 6.82 ERA, 14 games started, 66 IP, 1.92 WHIP

Hmm...I wonder who won there. Moving on...

Garland: 11-13, 4.01 ERA, 33 games started, 204 IP, 1.43 WHIP

Redding: 3-6, 5.10 ERA, 17 games started, 120 IP, 1.43 WHIP

They tied in WHIP, but it's obvious as to who won overall. In short, the Mets needed durability and consistency from their free agent pitchers, and that's what they would have had with Lowe and Garland. Hey front office...I told you so.

(4) About our outfield, from January 7, 2009. Source:

"In the outfield, I'd still love to see an upgrade over the Murphy-Tatis-Church trio in right and left field. Church in particular, really bothers me. I don't mind the platoon in left but I'd like to see a more dangerous hitter like Manny Ramirez or Adam Dunn in the other corner."

The front office thought we could get by with what we had. Opposing teams had over 100 more home runs at Citi Field than we did in 2009. Mr. Minaya, still think we have enough pop in the outfield?

(5) This part is crazy. About our incumbent starting pitchers, from March 25, 2009. Source:

"I have little-to-no faith in the middle of the Mets' starting rotation. That's Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, and John Maine. People in this area (Long Island) have been talking about Pelfrey like he's the second coming of Nolan Ryan, or someone of that caliber. Can we be realistic, for once? Pelfrey has a good sinking fastball. It runs consistently in the 92-95 MPH range. Every once in awhile, he touches 97 MPH. However, when local fans and analysts talk about Pelfrey they say he's a "power arm" that "throws 98 MPH." Someone that hits 98 MPH on a faulty radar gun once every five appearances, is not a pitcher that "throws 98 MPH." He throws 93. That's his average sinking fastball velocity. In addition, Pelfrey is still essentially a one-pitch pitcher. Sure we're told by the Mets organization that he has a curve and change-up, but his curve is a disaster and he rarely ever throws his change-up. What Pelfrey truly is, is a sinkerballer whose fastball doesn't always sink. Some outings he has strictly horizontal tail on his fastball. Pelfrey has a propensity for free passes, too. Never a good habit for a pitcher that relies heavily upon a single pitch. Fall behind in the count, and they know what's coming. And yet, in spite of Pelfrey's shortcomings, he can still win 12-15 games because of the weaker nature of National League lineups. Weaker, of course, in comparison to the American League lineups. Yes Pelfrey's capable of 15 wins, but I'm thinking more like an 11-13 record with a 4.45 ERA. Just because a pitcher is young doesn't mean that they automatically improve each year."

Pelfrey's actual stats: 10-12 with a 5.03 ERA.

"The Mets will need 15-9 from Perez, and 13-10 from Maine. 16-7 would be great from Pelfrey, but I don't think we'll get any of the three. There's an immense amount of pressure upon Santana this season, at least, in my opinion."

Didn't get any of the three...did we?

(6) About Manuel and Castillo, from March 25, 2009. Source:

"Jerry Manuel is an idiot, and he has Luis Castillo penciled into the 8-spot. You can't have Brian Schneider, Castillo, and the pitcher batting 7-8-9 at the bottom of the order!!! Luis has to bat second because at least he can bunt, and hit-and-run there. That's what he does. He's a bat control offensive player."

It took Manuel wayyy too long to figure this out. He buried Castillo at the bottom of the order last year, something that takes away his strengths as an offensive player. Manuel even had Daniel Murphy in the 2-hole to begin the season, once again burying Luis in the lineup. I'm sure you're all aware of that stat SNY always shows -- it shows that the Mets are significantly more successful with Castillo batting second, and yet Manuel started us off in a rut with Luis batting eighth. And oh yea, Jerry, you idiot...Luis is your leading hitter (batting .309) this season amongst those who qualify. Suck on that.

(7) About Castillo, from April 12, 2009. Source:

"Elsewhere in tonight's contest, Luis Castillo exploded for four hits, three runs scored, and his first RBI of the season...Good for Luis. I've never been on the Castillo-bashing bandwagon in New York; instead, as the overly obnoxious Met fans scream incessant obscenities at our diminuative second baseman, I merely root harder for him to succeed. He's been a true professional throughout his lengthy and successful major league career, and it's never been his fault that his agent suckered Omar Minaya for four years and $32 million. That's simply good business on the part of Castillo's camp. My expectations for Luis have always been realistic. This is a player who is nearing the back end of his career (if he isn't already immersed in it), and his legs -- particularly his knees -- aren't what they used to be. Take away Luis' legs and you're taking 30-50 points off his batting average. If he remains in the 8-hole throughout the season (though I prefer him in the 2-hole, so Murphy can be placed in a position to drive in runs), I'll take .270 from Luis, with an OBP nearing .360. Defensively, he'll play his position to the best of his remaining physical ability. Routine plays and double-play turns should never be a problem."

See, I knew that we'd have to lower our expectations for Luis if he batted 8th, but Manuel didn't know that? He's the friggin' manager! How come I knew that months and months in advance, but it was a month into the 2009 season before Manuel made the switch? Well, it's because he has no clue what he's doing.

(8) About Dan Warthen, Ollie, and Pelf, from April 14, 2009. Source:

"Warthen's job isn't to help those guys. What the Mets' pitching coach needs to have an effect on, is the development of Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, Oliver Perez, and Bobby Parnell. Beginning with Pelfrey, he doesn't appear to be improving at all. In fact, there's little to stop me from saying that he's regressing. His numbers are unattractive after his first two starts this year, and the most alarming aspect of his struggles is his inability to think while he's pitching. Pelfrey remains a "thrower," and not a "pitcher." I blame Pelfrey himself, Warthen, and tentative catcher Brian Schneider. Schneider calls predominantly fastballs to lighten his workload behind the dish, but it's Pelfrey's responsibility to shake him off and mix in more breaking balls. Above that, it's Warthen's responsibility to make sure that Pelfrey understands what is expected of him. What should be expected of him, is to throw something other than a sinker, more than once in a blue moon. Pelfrey is so predictable it's becoming absolutely painful to watch. I don't know if he'll ever be anything more than average, unless he makes a commitment to pitching with his brain, and not solely his size and strength. Ollie Perez is regressing as well. He was an absolute train wreck in the preseason, and he followed up his embarrassing unofficial campaign with a terrible performance in his first start of the regular season. The Mets' offense provided plenty of support for Perez, who proceeded to blow two decent leads in a short period of time. He's still wild, he's still erratic, and he's still dumb. What exactly are you teaching him, Mr. Warthen? Well, I can answer that: probably less than I could teach Ollie. For starters, Ollie needs to focus primarily on first pitch strikes, and he needs to stop hanging sliders when the batter in the box hasn't proven that he can catch up to his fastball. A pitcher should never help an opposing hitter out by voluntarily pitching to his bat speed. If a guy is clearly behind your fastball then you need to pound him with it until he's proven that he can effectively time it. Obviously, Perez doesn't do that. And Warthen, Schneider and Ramon Castro aren't helping him -- not even remotely, it seems."

Umm, yea. What I said.

(9) About Daniel Murphy, from April 21, 2009. Source:

"Murphy has a decent eye, and we can all tell that he takes the game seriously and desperately wants to succeed, but he's overmatched against the better starting pitchers. Maybe his youth is the explanation, but my theory is that he's just a borderline major league player. He has a professional approach, but limited power and there's nowhere to play him defensively. Specifically, he needs to avoid getting tied up on up-and-in fastballs. Despite a supposedly keen knowledge of the strikezone, Murphy consistently hacks at (and misses) four-seam fastballs up-and-in, off the plate."

Murphy's 2009 stats: .263, 11 HRs, 61 RBI in 546 plate appearances, and 498 official at bats. Sounds like a borderline major league player to me...

(10) About David Wright, and Manuel, from April 21, 2009. Source:

"Like Reyes, Wright is out of position in "his" spot in the order. As I continue saying this, I'm reminded that Jerry Manuel -- because of his incorrectly structured batting order -- is to blame for some of the offensive struggles, too. Anyway, Wright should be fifth, behind Carlos Delgado. David was very comfortable in the 5-hole early in his career, and I think he could use a metaphorical change of scenery right now. Mechanically, Wright's an absolute mess. He needs to do all of the following: (1) Get closer to the plate because pitchers are pounding him away with backdoor two-seam fastballs and teaser sliders. (2) Keep his front shoulder closed a split second longer, so he can drive those outside pitches to the opposite field, like he used to when he first came up. (3) Shorten up his swing with two strikes and stop pretending like striking out doesn't matter, and (4) Get his bat head out quicker on fastballs early in the count. He's been late, fouling meatballs off, way too often."

Once again I was ten steps ahead of Jerry Manuel. Prior to the season I wanted Castillo second and Beltran third, and Manuel had Murphy 2 and Wright 3 instead. Only after a month of failure did he make the switch to MY lineup. Could have told him that from the outset. As for Wright, looks like he didn't make many adjustments to the mechanical flaws I noted.

I'll be honest with you --- I'm getting a headache going back through these old posts. It's sad how little Minaya and Manuel know about baseball. I can't extract quotes anymore, because my head is going to explode. I'm so upset. But PLEASE, go back and read these posts:

Jerry Manuel Must Be Fired. Now.

The Mets are an EMBARRASSMENT to New York

Ryan Church, the epitome of "Mets Baseball"

Dear Omar Minaya: Please Fire Jerry Manuel!!!

21 Reasons Why the Mets are DOOMED

David Wright is extremely OVERrated.

Jerry Manuel has driven me INSANE.

If you made it to this point in the post, you deserve a medal or something. Spread the word! Help me get a job in the Mets' front office, haha. Let's at least run Jerry Manuel out of town. Many, many thanks for reading.

JFro's NFL Power Rankings

JFro — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 00:03:10 GMT

I've seen some mind-boggling power rankings on Covers, ESPN and CBS Sports, so I have to throw my opinion out on the open market. It's time for me to get it right, or at least try to. I'll explain my rationale as we go along...

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3)

It would be difficult for a team to look worse than Tampa did against the New York Giants this past week. They were shut out, showing no offensive explosiveness and little answer for New York's rushing attack. The Bucs are going to try youngster Josh Johnson at the quarterback position, but the switch from Byron Leftwich probably won't make much of a difference. As I suggested in my preseason predictions, it's going to be a long, long season for the Bucs.

31. St. Louis Rams (0-3)

They were one of the worst in the game a year ago, and little-to-nothing has changed in 2009. When healthy, Steven Jackson can be one of the more electric running backs in the NFL, but it's tough for him to thrive because of St. Louis' lack of balance. Now Marc Bulger is hurt and WR2 Laurent Robinson is done for the season, making improvement far-fetched. Kyle Boller may actually be better than Bulger, though. We'll have to wait and see what happens there.

30. Cleveland Browns (0-3)

I'm not afraid to say this:

I love watching Eric Mangini fail. I hated Mangini during his time as the head coach of my beloved Jets, and it's amusing to hear that his players hate him in Cleveland. Not only do his players despise him, but they're also playing very poorly. If Mangini goes to Derek Anderson over Brady Quinn, the Browns may improve slightly. Braylon Edwards was a much more dangerous weapon when Anderson called the signals in the past.

29. Kansas City Chiefs (0-3)

It has been difficult for new head coach Todd Haley to allow Matt Cassel to cut it loose, due in large part to his injury and that of WR1 Dwayne Bowe. Now Rotoworld is reporting that Bowe may be out again in Week 4, spelling more trouble for the Chiefs and their faithful. When healthy, I'm not sure that this team is as bad as its 0-3 record, but it doesn't look like it's going to come together for them this season.

28. Miami Dolphins (0-3)

If Chad Pennington was still under center, I definitely would have ranked them above the Raiders. However, Pennington is done for the year, and unproven commodity Chad Henne gets the ball. With the Jets thriving and the Patriots looking to piece it together, the AFC East is a tough place to be without your No. 1 quarterback. Ronnie Brown is a legitimate playmaker, but he'll lose some of his luster as Miami's passing attack dips in efficiency.

27. Oakland Raiders (1-2)

I've been pretty impressed by their defensive speed the past few seasons, but it's hard to maintain that collective energy when your offense is going three-and-out. JaMarcus Russell's inaccuracy is laughable -- well, not to Oakland's fans -- and he's wasting the surprising ability of WR1 Louis Murphy. I love their linebackers and CB Nnamdi Asomugha, but this team isn't going anywhere if their quarterback can't hit wide open receivers. Jeff Garcia, anyone?

26. Detroit Lions (1-2)

Yes, I know they're coming off a big victory over the Washington Redskins, but they've only won one game in the past two seasons. I can't have them any higher than 26th, especially with RB1 Kevin Smith questionable for the next couple of weeks. I congratulate them on their streak-ending win, but I can't place too much faith in them -- yet.

25. Washington Redskins (1-2)

This is where the Lions fans ask, "How could you rank them ahead of us, we just beat them this past week?!!" Well, I don't base these power rankings on a single head-to-head match-up, and the Redskins were without their best defensive player (Albert Haynesworth) for the critical stages of the game. Washington plays that "ball control" style of offense that many teams seem to have adapted in the past few years, which means they can lose a close one to a bad team, and win a close one against a superior team. I think they have a better shot of being competitive as the season rolls along.

24. Houston Texans (1-2)

Many analysts had them as one of the breakout teams in the league this year, but I projected them to have a losing record. They appear to be headed that way because they can't run the ball (Steve Slaton has been a major disappointment), and they can't make stops when they need to. Right now they can only win shootouts decided by each team's air attack.

23. Carolina Panthers (0-3)

This was one of the premier teams in the NFL in 2008, so I can't quite bury them yet. If not for the presence of Jake Delhomme, I would have them higher on the list and label their slow start "a fluke." But I can't because Delhomme is there, and he's the primary reason why they stink right now. He threw another game away against Dallas last night, though Muhsin Muhammad did little to help him out on the first interception. DeAngelo Williams remains one of the most explosive RBs in the game, but they need a quarterback if they want him to blow up again this season.

22. Buffalo Bills (1-2)

In my opinion, Trent Edwards is one of the absolute worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. I've been saying that since the beginning, even when he showcased winning ways. He has no arm, and he's one of the only professional QBs who could turn Terrell Owens into a non-factor. Edwards has ruined Lee Evans as well. I really like Buffalo's defensive unit, and that's what will keep them in ballgames as the season progresses.

21. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)

Flip a coin between them and the Seahawks (up next), but I'll take Seattle right now because they were a lot closer to being 2-1. If David Garrard is smart and efficient like he was in 2007, this team can be relatively competitive. A reliable passing game would take some of the pressure off team MVP Maurice-Jones Drew, who broke out for three TDs against Houston this week. Jacksonville was an absolute mess last year, and little has changed for them in the personnel department, so I remain somewhat skeptical.

20. Seattle Seahawks (1-2)

The following statement may surprise you:

I'm not sure that Matt Hasselbeck is that much better than Seneca Wallace at this stage in their respective careers. Shocking, I know. Hasselbeck has been a solid quarterback for quite some time, but injuries are slowing him and he's completely limited to the pocket. Wallace, on the other hand, has excellent mobility and a knack for making plays. Hasselbeck is still better, but the point of this paragraph is that Seattle doesn't lose much with him on the sidelines. With T.J. Houshmandzadeh drawing much of the attention, Nate Burleson has emerged as this team's top receiving option. The Seahawks are certainly decent, but unspectacular.

19. Cincinnati Bengals (2-1)

This is where things get dicey. I know people are going to be upset by this positioning, especially considering the fact that the Bengals could easily be 3-0 right now. But Cincy was one of the worst teams in football the past couple of years, and I find it very hard to put my faith in their defense. Carson Palmer has always been too reckless for my taste, and I don't consider Cedric Benson an upper-tier running back. They've clearly shown that they can be competitive, and that's why I have them inside of the top 20; still, they have plenty more to prove to me.

18. Tennessee Titans (0-3)

I can hear the complaints now...

"What??!! They haven't won a game and you have them ahead of a team that should be 3-0??!!!"

Yup, I do. We're only three games into the year, and this was the premier regular season team of 2008. They lost their first game narrowly to the defending Super Bowl champions, a 34-31 heartbreaker to the Texans in Week 2, and a one-score battle to the scorching Jets this week. The Titans can beat any team in this league; there's no doubt in my mind. They can move the ball offensively, and have one of the best players in the league in RB Chris Johnson. Their defense is stuffed with talented performers, and head coach Jeff Fisher will not allow them to panic. I expect Tennessee to be in the playoff race at the end of the year.

17. San Francisco 49ers (2-1)

Like the Bengals at 19, Mike Singletary's 49ers could easily be 3-0. Nonetheless, also like the Bengals, they are not in my top 16. (Of course, there are 32 teams in the NFL, which means the top 16 represents the better half of teams). Like the Redskins and Bills, the 49ers are another of the ball control offenses. That makes them competitive -- thus, in the top 20 -- but simultaneously unexplosive. Shaun Hill has one of the weaker arms of the starting QBs, and now workhorse Frank Gore is out a few weeks. Their defense is very respectable, but long-term, my expectations are not very high for San Francisco.

16. Denver Broncos (3-0)

Josh McDaniels' boys have certainly benefited from a soft schedule and some incredible luck, but 3-0 is 3-0. Denver's defense has played over its head thanks to the favorable match-ups, but the momentum could carry them to season-long respectability. Kyle Orton has done just enough for his team to stay in games and eventually pick up victories, but he's been far from impressive. Eddie Royal has been lost in the shuffle, and Brandon Marshall continues to be unpredictable. There's a chance that they'll finish the season as a back-end playoff team, but I'm not putting them ahead of last year's Super Bowl teams yet.

15. Arizona Cardinals (1-2)

I want to give them the benefit of the doubt because they were outstanding in the postseason, but this team appears to have lost its mystique. Arizona's defense has digressed to its barely-average days of old, and Kurt Warner hasn't been on the same page with superstar Larry Fitzgerald. The Cardinals' offensive line has been terrible, and Warner has undoubtedly lost some zip on his passes. Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells are concerns in the running game as well. They're only this high because the Super Bowl isn't that far into the past.

14. Chicago Bears (2-1)

Let's be honest, many of these teams in the 22-12 range are interchangeable. I like the Bears because they're 2-1 in spite of the fact that RB Matt Forte has struggled; still, this is far from a powerhouse team. To their credit, Chicago's defense -- even without Brian Urlacher -- continues to keep them in games, and the Jay Cutler/Devin Hester combination has found a way to connect on some explosive plays. For the most part, this is a balanced club.

13. Atlanta Falcons (2-1)

A bit of an overrated team here. It will be difficult for Atlanta to do any damage in a postseason setting with their defense constructed the way it is. They aren't exceptional against the run or pass, and that's obviously a recipe for trouble. You have to love their offensive talent with Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez, but defense is paramount in today's NFL. The Falcons are definitely a team with a ceiling.

12. Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

I love watching their passing attack struggle without Terrell Owens. Letting a superstar go because he's an "off-field distraction" isn't a good idea without a similar replacement. As a No. 1 receiving option, Roy Williams isn't on the same planet as Owens. It's not even the same solar system, and Tony Romo has subsequently struggled to find open receivers down field. However, their offensive line has been outstanding in the running game, regardless of who is taking the ball (Marion Barber, Felix Jones or Tashard Choice). Their defense, as always, is talented but questionable.

11. Green Bay Packers (2-1)

This is an extremely talented team on both sides of the ball, but their defense has a tendency to crack. The speed and ability are there, and the unit does a good job forcing turnovers, but they give up too many points. That's probably a result of gambling too often for big plays. Offensively, RB Ryan Grant has to stay fresh in order for Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, and Donald Driver to remain comfortable in the passing game. Injuries to the offensive line are a concern here.

10. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)

They're the defending Super Bowl champions, and the preceding teams (Cowboys and Packers) haven't shown that they can win when it matters in recent years. There's no question that this defense isn't what it was without Troy Polamalu, but there's still a number of Pro Bowl caliber players in the unit (Harrison, Woodley, Farrior, Hampton, Smith). I have faith in Ben Roethlisberger long-term, and how could I not? The kid has two Super Bowl rings already. Mike Tomlin is an exceptional head coach, too.

9. Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)

The faces are changing -- Kevin Kolb and LeSean McCoy in place of Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook -- but the results are still good. McNabb is expected back after the Week 4 Bye, and Westbrook will share carries with McCoy from then on. Philly's defense continues to showcase the ability to make timely plays (although they were torched by Drew Brees and the Saints in Week 2), and Andy Reid is a stabilizing force at the helm of this team.

8. San Diego Chargers (2-1)

Sorry LT, but this team is better with Darren Sproles as its RB1. Sproles has superior moves and explosiveness at this stage in their respective careers, and he's as dangerous as they come on screen plays. Philip Rivers continues to thrive as he spreads the ball around to Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, Sproles, Malcom Floyd and others. San Diego's defense reminds me of both the Packers and Cowboys -- talented, but suspect.

7. New England Patriots (2-1)

This is far from the team that took the field in 2007, but they still have Tom Brady. New England's defense doesn't scare me at all, but if the score's close in the fourth quarter, it's tough to bet against Tom Terrific. He hasn't been the fantasy football monster that he was a couple years ago, but it's logical to expect improvement as the year progresses. Fred Taylor's been a pleasant surprise for them, and Wes Welker is on his way back. I guess I have to mention the best coach in the league -- Bill Belicheat, I mean "check" -- too.

6. Indianapolis Colts (3-0)

Two weeks ago, during their victory over the winless Miami Dolphins, I felt the Colts were lacking in explosiveness. They've had a similar roster for the past five seasons, and it looked as if time was catching up to them. But this week I got another look at the new blood, RB Donald Brown and WR Pierre Garcon, and I changed my mind a bit. Like Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning's arm doesn't look quite as strong as it used to be, but I suppose that's expected with age. Reggie Wayne is still a monster, and Joseph Addai has been a little better than adequate in the running game.

5. New York Jets (3-0)

As a Jets fan, I really wanted to put us above Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings; the reason I couldn't?

Adrian Peterson, of course. The Jets have a decent rushing attack with the combination of Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, but Peterson is the best player in the NFL -- that's a 'whole nother level. The Jets' defense may be slightly better than the Vikings right now, but Minnesota remains well above average. My J-E-T-S are an incredible story behind Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez, and I can only hope that the Cinderella season continues.

4. Minnesota Vikings (3-0)

I hate Brett Favre, but I can't deny the incredible nature of his game-winning throw against the 49ers. The offseason surgery has certainly returned some of his arm strength, something he didn't have toward the end of his season with the Jets. This is a team patterned after the Pittsburgh Steelers, looking to win with their running game and defense. Their offensive and defensive lines are both exceptional.

3. New Orleans Saints (3-0)

They've been the most explosive offensive team in the NFL the past two years, and now their defense is coming around. It's far from an elite defensive unit, but it's becoming more respectable with time. Drew Brees is possibly the top quarterback in the game right now, and RB Pierre Thomas returned to form in Week 3. Don't forget about Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Jeremy Shockey or Devery Henderson, either.

2. Baltimore Ravens (3-0)

Their schedule's been a breeze to this point in the year, but bare in mind that this was one of the NFL's Final Four last season. Joe Flacco has shrugged off any concerns about a sophomore slump, elevating Baltimore's offense to a level we've never quite seen from them. Willis McGahee has been an extremely pleasant surprise, and WR Derrick Mason continues to be Steady Eddy in the passing game. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed anchor Baltimore's defense, a group that put together a Renaissance performance this past week.

1. New York Giants (3-0)

I still have some concerns about this team, namely its wide receivers and secondary, but this is a rock solid club overall. Eli Manning has been sharp through the first few games, and the Brandon Jacobs/Ahmad Bradshaw combination is a handful on the ground. The Giants' defensive line is far and away the deepest and most effective in football, and their linebacking core is beginning to come together nicely. Tom Coughlin is one of the top five head coaches in the NFL, and he has to like the way his team looks right now. The question is...how will it finish?

Under the Microscope: the Oakland Raiders

JFro — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 05:18:16 GMT

It's not easy to run a professional sports franchise, and the Oakland Raiders' situation is a prime example of that. Let's forget about Al Davis, the coaching carousel, and the team's disastrous collective performance of the past few years (being kind), and just focus on their quarterback situation heading into the season.

One discussion, one decision...grand implications. The repercussions? We're talking about making or breaking a season. Well, a regular season. I wouldn't quite throw around the prefix "post" at this point in time.

Anyway, there's the incumbent...JaMarcus Russell. The former No. 1 overall selection has always showcased considerable arm strength, but accuracy and football IQ have proven to be his greatest weaknesses. The natural ability is there, but the well-rounded game may never fully evolve. It may not even evolve past the 50 percent mark.

And then they brought in Jeff Garcia, who has since returned to the Philadelphia Eagles in a back-up capacity. But at the time a decision was to be made in Oakland, Garcia was still very much in the picture. Herein lies the conundrum:

Play the man that the organization committeed to long-term when they drafted him No. 1 overall, or play the safer, more experienced, better quarterback?

Before the owner, front office, and coaching staff could make that specific decision, they had to address the answer to one humbling question:

Regardless of which quarterback we choose, is there any way this team could make a run at the Super Bowl? How about the division title? Playoffs as a Wild Card?

Obviously, by choosing Russell and quickly parting with Garcia, the projected answer to that question is simple..."No." The Raiders' brass definitely didn't think they had a chance to do any serious damage in the 2009-2010 NFL season because if they did, they would have gone with Garcia.

There are starters like Garcia dispersed throughout the league -- Chad Pennington, Shaun Hill, and Trent Edwards to name a few -- and they're "ball control" quarterbacks. These guys are signal callers who are looking to avoid turnovers, make the safe and easy plays, and keep their team in a position to win each and every game. Of course, this only works if you have a defense that can hold up its end of the bargain.

The funny thing is, the Raiders do have that kind of defense. They have one of the premier cornerbacks in the NFL in Nnamdi Asomugha, and they boast an exceptional linebacking tandem in Kirk Morrison and Thomas Howard. There's notable talent at other defensive positions as well.

And yet, the Raiders' brass didn't appear to buy into the parity aspect of today's NFL. If you can play above-average defense, control the ball, and avoid turnovers, you can compete with anyone in professional football. There's no doubt that the Raiders would have been much more competitive in '09-10 with Jeff Garcia under center.

But hey, you make a boneheaded pick, then I guess you have to back it up. Even a few years later...when very little his changed.