Antone's Blog

Brett Favre Trade Analysis

Antone — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 12:27:04 GMT

After countless days of non-stop Brett Favre coverage on whether or not he would come back from retirement and then who he would play for if he did come back, the Packers finally ended all the madness and traded Favre to the New York Jets.

I have not covered this story until now because like most people I am sick of the whole Brett Favre retirement issue. However, now that Favre has been traded to the New York Jets and will actually hit the playing field, I feel that this part of the Favre story is definitely worthy of some attention.

As hard as it is to believe that the Packers would not want Brett Favre on their team and risk **** off all of their fans, I do understand from a team stand point why they would do it. Brett Favre was not going to be the Packers QB forever and they needed to see what Aaron Rodgers can bring to the table before he becomes a free agent and decides to bolt because he never got any playing time.

It is also possible that the Packers are extremely confident in Rodgers' ability to lead their team. He did play exceptionally well last year in the game against Dallas, when Favre went down with an injury. In that game, Rodgers went 18 for 26 with 201 yards with 1 TD and no interceptions. I would not be totally surprised to see Rodgers do well and lead the Packers back to the playoffs. I think he has a strong enough cast around him to get the job done and the other teams in the NFC Central are not strong at the QB position, which means their is no guarantee they will be successful.

As far as Favre heading to the Jets, I think this is a great situation for the Jets for three reasons:

1.) Favre Upgrades the Jets QB Position: Favre is a serious upgrade at QB over both Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens. The Jets will have a better chance to win every time they step on the field because Favre brings more to the table physically then either one of those guys. Favre has a stronger arm than Pennington, who struggles to make all the throws on the field. This will open up the playbook for the Jets and allow them to run more plays on offense and be able to throw deep down the field. Unlike Pennington, Clemens does have a strong arm but he can not match the experience of Brett Favre and it is unlikely that he is ready to lead the Jets to the playoffs at this stage of his career. Brett Favre gives the Jets the best chance of doing that.

2.) The Jets Do Not Have a QB of The Future: The fact that the Jets do not have a clear cut QB of the future at this point makes them one of the few teams that it makes sense for to acquire Brett Favre. If this were Arizona with Matt Leinert or Atlanta with Matt Ryan, it would not makes sense to acquire Favre and stunt the growth of a young up and coming QB. There is a reason why Bill Parcells and the Miami Dolphins, as well as other young and rebuilding teams, do not want any veteran starting QB's on their roster, because it will hurt the team in the long run if they do not get their young QB's playing time. The Jets in my mind are playing to win now after all the moves they made in the offseason to add to a solid young group of players. Favre gives them the best chance to win right now and I do not feel like either Pennington or Clemens would have been a long term solution at the QB position for the Jets, so they have nothing to lose in the long run by acquiring Favre.

3.) The Cost To Acquire Favre Was Reasonable: In order to acquire Brett Favre, the Jets gave up a 4th round draft pick, however, if Farve performs well that draft pick increases:

According to the NFL Network, if Favre takes 50 percent of total snaps with the Jets in 2008, the fourth-rounder becomes a third-round pick. If he gets 70 percent of the snaps and the Jets make the playoffs, it becomes a second-round pick; and if he gets 80 percent of snaps and the Jets make the Super Bowl, it becomes a first-round pick.

Again, this is the perfect situation for the Jets. If Favre bombs and starts to show his age, they only give up a 3rd round pick at worst. If they make they playoffs, they give up a 2nd round pick and the Super Bowl is worth a 1st round pick. I think that's a fair deal to me and I'm sure a lot of teams would be willing to give up a 1st round pick for a chance to win the Super Bowl.

Playoff Chances: The Jets playoff chances are directly tied to the improvement they should see offensively from their acquisition of Brett Favre. Favre should be able to expand the Jets passing game, which includes the consistent Laveranues Coles and the vastly underrated Jerricho Cotchery. After that there isn't much to talk about, so the Jets may be looking to add another wideout. They did also sign TE Bubba Franks in the offseason, who has played his whole career with Brett Favre.

The offensive line is solid with the signing of Alan Faneca, who joins Nick Mangold, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Brandon Moore, and Damien Woody. The Jets are hoping their strong offensive line will help their running game, which includes Thomas Jones, Leon Washington, and Jesse Chatman.

The defense is scrappy and I expect them to be improved over last season, mostly because their offense should be able to stay on the field longer now that they have Favre. They also added DT Kris Jenkins, LB Calvin Pace, and drafted LB Vernon Gholston, who should all help improve the Jets defense. I also love Kerry Rhodes and Derrelle Revis in their secondary.

Overall, I would expect that the Jets will have an excellent chance of making the playoffs this season. They will still have their hands full with the Patriots, but they will certainly be able to compete with them and they are clearly better than Miami and Buffalo. They also get to play both the NFC and AFC West, which generally are two of the weaker divisions in the NFL, since they include teams like the Raiders, Chiefs, 49ers, Rams, and Cardinals.
More: NFL

MLB Weekly: Twins in 1st Place, ARod In The Clutch, More

Antone — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 00:27:19 GMT

Minnesota Twins: Francisco Liriano is back up with the Twins and pitched 6 shutout innings yesterday to get the win and help the Twins move into first place over the struggling White Sox. It is great to see Liriano back up with the Twins and pitching well in his first start. The scary thing is that the Twins are in first place and have basically not even needed Liriano to get there.

It is truly amazing what the Twins have been able to accomplish this season without Johan Santana and I think it is a surprise to all that they are competing at such a high level so soon after the trade. I'm not sure if the Twins will be able to win the AL Central but the addition of Liriano certainly gives them as good of a chance as the White Sox or Tigers have.

The Twins offense has been decent this season posting the 5th most runs per game in the AL at 4.92 and they have a 101 OPS+, which gives them a slightly better than league average offense. On the flip side, their pitching has not been stellar posting only a 94 ERA+, which is below average. The addition of Liriano who will take the place of Livan Hernandez will certainly improve the Twins pitching staff and give them their best chance to win the division. Hernandez had been awful this season with a 10-8 record, 5.48 ERA, and a horrible 74 ERA+, which is way below average.

I think the Twins will be in the AL Central race until the end and right now they are playing the best baseball of the three contenders in that division. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues because the White Sox certainly have the talent to take control of that division and I also wonder if the Tigers will make a push for the division at some point.

Alex Rodriguez: A-Rod is having another monster season for the Yankees and is currently hitting .325 with 24 HR, 66 RBI, 15 SB, .407 OBP, .609 SLG, 1.016 OPS and 168 OPS+. He has been the second most productive batter in the AL this season behind only Milton Bradley, who has a 177 OPS+. Certainly A-Rod would have to be considered a strong MVP candidate in the AL with the numbers he is putting up.

However, it is well known that A-Rod gets judged on a different level then other players when it comes to how clutch he is. So how is A-Rod performing in the clutch this season? Well, with runners in scoring position this season A-Rod is hitting only .253 with 4 HR, 39 RBI, .412 OBP, .424 SLG, and a .826 OPS in 99 at bats. He also has 22 walks, 8 intentional walks, was hit by a pitch 7 times, and has struck out 30 times. As you can see, A-Rod's numbers are not that impressive with runners in scoring position and his OPS is almost 200 points lower than his season OPS.

If you look at the flip side of things, A-Rod has done most of his damage with nobody on base. In those situations, he is hitting .363 with 16 HR, 16 RBI, .417 OBP, .713 SLG, 1.130 OPS in 171 at bats. Sure the sample size is greater, so you would expect A-Rod to have more home runs in this situation but the batting average is a 200 point difference and the OPS is more than a 300 point difference.

So clearly A-Rod is doing most of his damage when nobody is on base. Sure this helps the team in some sense but what A-Rod is not doing is making other teams pay for putting runners in scoring position and when you are a great player, making other teams pay for their mistakes is what you need to do. A-Rod has come to the plate with 158 runners in scoring position and has only knocked in 39 of the runners, so he is only succeeding in these situations 25 % of the time. This also helps explain how A-Rod could be hitting so well but yet only have 66 RBI.

Tim Hudson: It looks like Braves starter Tim Hudson will need Tommy John surgery. Until this point, Hudson was one of the few pitchers that Billy Beane has traded from Oakland that has for the most part been able duplicate his success in Oakland and stay injury free. Others have not been able to duplicate their success in Oakland because they either had injury problems(Mark Mulder) or just flat out stunk (Barry Zito). I'm pretty sure the often injured Rich Harden will join that group at some point too. Tim Hudson will now have a long road back from Tommy John surgery and he may never be as effective as he once was. Great strides have been made over the years by pitchers recovering from this type of surgey though, so there is hope for Hudson. At the same time, it is no suprise that Hudson is now breaking down because he is of small stature at just 6'1 170 lbs. Hudson has often been compared to Pedro Martinez because they were of similar size or lack thereof and we have seen what has happened to Pedro's arm and body once he reached his 30's. Hopefully Hudson can return from his surgery and be effective, but much like Pedro this might just be the beginning of his decline physically.

Other MLB news:

- Rocco Baldelli has completed a 20 game rehab in the minors and could join the first place Tampa Bay Rays soon. Baldelli would certainly help the Rays offense if he is indeed healthy. With Baldelli back and the possibility of the Rays bringing up pitcher David Price, they could have two solid additions that would make up for the Rays not making any trade deadline deals to help their club.

- So far the additions of Manny Ramirez and Casey Blake have paid off for the Dodgers. Blake is hitting .364 with 1 HR and 2 RBI in 33 at-bats and Manny is hitting .615 with 2 HR and 5 RBI in 13 at-bats. For a team that currently has an 88 OPS+ and is 13th in the NL in runs scored, Blake and Manny are certainly welcome additions to the Dodgers offensively.

- The Rockies are considering acquiring pitcher Livan Hernandez, who was just recently waived by the Twins after getting tuned up for most of the season.

More: MLB & MLB Weekly

NBA Weekly:Ron Artest Makes Houston Rockets Legit Contenders

Antone — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 12:41:18 GMT

Ron Artest: After much discussion of Ron Artest possibly heading to the Lakers or Pistons, among other teams, the Houston Rockets have a deal in place to acquire Ron Artest for Bobby Jackson, the rights to Donte Greene, and a 1st round draft pick in 2010. This is a huge deal in my mind for the Rockets, who are one team that certainly needed another wing player to help out Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming with the scoring load.

As many other people have already noted, the Rockets were the second best defensive team in the league last season and the addition of Artest will certainly help them sustain their great defensive play. The key for the Rockets in acquiring Artest is actually his offensive play. While he is not a great/superstar talent offensively, he certainly is more than solid as a third option on offense behind Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. Don't forget the Rockets also have Shane Battier, Rafer Alston, and Louis Scola already on the team from last year and they also added Brent Barry and Joey Dorsey. Put those guys around their trio of All-Stars and you have a pretty damn good team out West in my opinion.

Everyone is going to make a big stink about Ron Artest being a head case but it has been a long time since Artest got into trouble where it affected his game. I really don't think this will be an issue but just for the record the last time Artest was in trouble was for a domestic dispute over a year ago. He hasn't really had any incidents on the court since that infamous night in Detroit but seriously the guy is not a problem when he is on the court. Plus, Ron Artest is on the record as loving head coach Rick Adleman, so I think Artest will be just fine.

I definitely think this team will compete for the Western Conference title but that's assuming that everyone stays healthy. All three of these guys have been known to be injury prone but if they stay healthy then this should be the first team with Tracey McGrady on it to make it out of the first round of the playoffs. If that doesn't happen, then I don't think it ever will. It still won't be easy though because you have to consider they will be competing with the Lakers, Spurs, Hornets, and Jazz for one of the top 4 spots in the West. That doesn't even include the Mavs, Suns, and Blazers who all should be in the mix as well.

Chicago Bulls: The Chicago Bulls are finally making some moves as they re-signed Loul Deng to a 6 year deal worth as much as $80 million. Deng is a solid player but he didn't have many other choices in free agency other than to go back to Chicago. In fact, I don't think I heard about any other teams being seriously interested in signing Deng. This is probably one of the worst seasons to be a free agent if you are in the NBA because there aren't many teams with cap space.

Deng's teammate Ben Gordon is having a hard time finding a team to sign with and now that the Bulls have re-signed Deng, it appears that the Bulls won't be able to re-sign Gordon either. Gordon has mentioned that he may consider signing in Europe just like Josh Childress did. It's also possible that Gordon will accept a one year deal to return to the Bulls and then become an unrestricted free agent next season. If not then expect to see Gordon involved in a sign and trade deal.

Andris Biedrins: The Golden State Warriors re-signed big man Andris Biedrins to a six-year contract that could be worth as much as$62 million with incentives. I think this was a no brainer move for the Warriors because Biedrins is a very efficient player having hit 61.6% of his shots for his career. He also is a strong rebounder having averaged 9.8 rebounds in just under 28 minutes a game last season for the Warriors. Biedrins is only 22 years old, so this contract means the Warriors will have a young, talented player with high potential locked up through the prime of his career. I think Biedrins is probably one of the more underrated players in the NBA right now and the Warriors were wise to lock him up.

Other NBA news:

- The Charlotte Bobcats did the right thing in my mind by re-signing big man Emeka Okafor to 6 year-$72 million deal. Okafor can be an anchor defensively for the Bobcats in the upcoming years and he is in the prime of his career.

- Ricky Davis signed a 2 year deal with the Los Angeles Clippers. Not a bad signing by the Clippers because he will be pretty cheap but Davis has never been on a winning team and that has to count for something.

- Ryan Gomes re-signed with the Timberwolves for 5 more years. Seems like a lot of years to sign with such a bad team but Gomes is confident that the Timberwolves will become a great team within the next few years.

- The Atlanta Hawks have signed guard Maurice Evans to replace Josh Childress off the bench. Evans averaged 9.3 points a game last season and should be able to help with the loss of Childress

- The Detroit Pistons added yet another big man to their team by signing Kwame Brown to a 2 year-$8 million contract. I think the Pistons have way too many big guys and probably could use another playmaking wing if they want to get back to the finals.

- The self-proclaimed "machine", Sasha Vujacic, re-signed with the Lakers for 3 years-$15 million.

- Nets big man Nenad Kristic will be playing in Russia next season.

- The Denver Nuggets acquired forward Renaldo Balkman from the New York Knicks for guard Taurean Green, forward Bobby Jones and a second-round draft pick in 2010. I guess Balkman replaces Eduardo Najera because he seems to be a similar type of player.

- If I'm reading this right then, Julius Hodge who played well in the Utah Summer League, will be playing in Australia next season.

- Former Mississippi State forward Charles Rhodes has several European options if he does not make it with the Dallas Mavericks.

More: NBA Weekly

MLB Weekly: The Yankees Are Back, Manny On The Block?

Antone — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 01:38:33 GMT

New York Yankees: The New York Yankees are back into the race for the AL East Division title and are back in the news with a trade and other possible trade rumors. The Yankees are on fire having won their first 8 games since the All-Star break. They are now only 3 games out of first behind the Tampa Bay Rays. They also completed a trade this past week with the Pirates for OF Xavier Nady and left handed reliever Damaso Marte, giving up Russ Ohlendorf, Jeff Karstens, Dan McCutchen, and top prospect Jose Tabata. With the Yankees surging, the Boston Red Sox continuing to struggle on the road, and the Tampa Bay Rays just struggling period, it's possible that the Yankees could be in prime position to win the AL East once again.

With the addition of Marte and Nady, the Yankees made what might seem like a small trade but I believe this is just the type of trade that could make a big difference for the Yankees. Xavier Nady is a very underrated hitter and he addresses a need for the Yankees, who lack good right handed bats outside of A-Rod and Derek Jeter. For his career, Xavier Nady has been an above average offensive player with a 108 OPS+, but this season he has really been mashing the ball, hitting .327 with 13 HR, 57 RBI, a .384 OBP, .530 SLG, and 141 OPS+. He is also a .320 career hitter against lefties with an .880 OPS. Now I don't know if Nady will continue hitting as good as he has this season but even if he hits how he has over his career, he will still be a help to the Yankees lineup.

The other player in the trade, Damaso Marte, is going to help the Yankees simply by showing up to pitch because the Yankees did not have any left handed pitchers in the bullpen before they traded for Marte. It won't be hard for Marte to make an impact on the Yankees bullpen, simply because he is a left handed pitcher but he also is a damn good one. Over his career, Marte has been a solid reliever and has posted a 3.21 ERA and a 141 ERA+, while striking out more than one batter per inning. He already paid dividends for the Yankees by striking out David Ortiz in his first appearance this weekend. The acquisition of Marte means that the Yankees now have a bullpen that could be one of the best in baseball.

The trade for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte was a solid trade that should improve the Yankees but there also have been several other trade rumors that have included the Yankees. The biggest rumor out there right now is that the Yankees are trying to acquire left handed starter Jarrod Washburn from the Seattle Mariners. Washburn is having the worst year of his career but the Yankees are not offering much to acquire him besides paying most of his salary. As long as the Yankees don't give up much to acquire Washburn then I don't see the harm in trading for him. While Washburn would be an upgrade over Sidney Ponson, I do not see it as a major upgrade but a move that would provide more consistency out of the back end of the rotation.

If the Yankees are not able to acquire Washburn, rumor is that they might trade Melky Cabrera to the Royals for Brian Bannister. Bannister has been horrible this season and certainly hasn't even been as good as Sidney Ponson, which says a lot considering that Ponson is no prize himself. If I were the Yankees, I would not make a move for Bannister, especially if it means giving up their starting center fielder.

The last rumor that involves the Yankees is that they were discussing possibly signing Barry Bonds. This move would probably be a long shot but there is no doubt in my mind that Bonds would be productive as a DH for the Yankees. The only question is whether or not Bonds and all the hoopla that surrounds him is even too much for the Yankees to have to deal with. All indications are that the Yankees will not sign Bonds.

Manny Ramirez: Wow, I can't believe after all these years the Red Sox are finally thinking about trading Manny Ramirez. As much of a pain in the **** Manny can be, the Red Sox would be stupid to trade him if they plan on winning this season. I find it highly unlikely they could get an equal return for Manny that would be able to help them this season. Now if they think that they can't win this season, then I would say go ahead and trade him but I don't see the Red Sox giving up on this season when they have as good a chance of any team to win it all. Either way, things with the Red Sox and Manny Ramirez have become really ugly and it could be something that has a major effect on the Red Sox playoffs chances this season.

Milwaukee Brewers: While the New York Yankees are the hottest team in the AL, the Milwaukee Brewers are one of the hottest teams in the NL after winning 11 of 16 games since acquiring C.C. Sabathia, including an 8 game winning streak. The Brewers are now tied for first place with the Chicago Cubs and they will face off with the Cubs for a four game series starting today. I still have to favor the Cubs to win the division because I like their lineup and bullpen better. With the addition of Rich Harden, the Cubs have to be the favorites to represent the NL in the World Series but the Brewers will certainly be a player throughout the second half of the season and push the Cubs hard. The Brewers also made a minor deal this past week by acquiring second basemen Ray Durham from the San Francisco Giants.

New York Mets: The one team in the NL that might be hotter than the Milwaukee Brewers is the New York Mets. The Mets are 16-5 in their last 21 games and have taken over the lead in the NL East. Even though they are playing well, they are still looking to improve their team and have been talking to the Mariners about outfielder Raul Ibanez. Ibanez has been a solid hitter throughout his career and is batting .275 with 14 HR, 61 RBI, and a 116 OPS+ this season. The Mets apparently would have no interest in Manny Ramirez if the Red Sox do decide to try and trade him.

Casey Blake: The Los Angeles Dodgers were able to acquire Indians third basemen/outfielder Casey Blake. Blake is a decent player who is having one of his best seasons to date, hitting .293 with 11 HR, 58 RBI, .363 OBP, .470 SLG and 121 OPS+. Despite Blake's solid season, I don't see this move as a major one. It might help the Dodgers win the NL West but I think they are still far away from being a serious World Series contender.

NBA Weekly: Marcus Camby Traded To Clippers and More

Antone — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 15:10:00 GMT

Marcus Camby: Big news yesterday as the Denver Nuggets traded Marcus Camby to the Clippers for what basically amounts to a 10 million dollar trade exception. The Denver Nuggets made this move because they needed to save some money since they were well over the salary cap. Now, I'm not sure if the Nuggets plan on making another move but I think the loss of Camby seriously hurts their playoff chances in the competitive Western Conference. With Portland improving and teams like Sacramento and now the Clippers in the mix for a playoff spot, I would not be surprised to see Denver miss the playoffs. Of course since they still have Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson, they will be able to put up points and I have a feeling they have another move or two up their sleeve. Either way this is definitely a major change for the Nuggets and the Clippers now have Camby who will help ease the burden of losing Elton Brand

Josh Smith: Strangely enough, Josh Smith has been affected by both the Elton Brand signing and the Marcus Camby trade. The 76ers and Clippers were two of three teams who had enough cap space to offer Josh Smith a big deal that the Hawks might not have matched. However, the 76ers used most of that cap space on Elton Brand and the Clippers now will be using most of theirs on Marcus Camby. The other team with enough cap space to go after Josh Smith is the Memphis Grizzlies but they are in a rebuilding mode and aren't trying to spend money. This means that Josh Smith will probably have to go back to the Atlanta Hawks unless they can pull off a sign and trade.

James Posey: Major move for the New Orleans Hornets, who were able to sign James Posey to a 4 year deal. This is a huge loss for the Boston Celtics because James Posey was a huge part of their championship run. It will be interesting to see what the Celtics will do now to try and replace Posey. I can almost bet that they will try to bring back Tony Allen now but I'm pretty sure he won't be able to replace Posey. On the flip side, this is a big time score for the New Orleans Hornets and they will definitely be an improved team with the addition of Posey. This is the type of signing that builds on their success of last season and solidifies the Hornets as legit championship contenders.

Ron Artest: Last week there were rumors of a potential Ron Artest for Lamar Odom deal and this week there are a few more rumors that involve Ron Artest. The latest rumor is a Shawn Marion for Ron Artest deal, but this move is seen as unlikely because the Heat need helo down low and at the point guard position and Artest fills neither one of those needs. The other rumor out there is a possible trade with Dallas for Josh Howard. This trade is more likely to me, especially when you consider that their new coach is Rick Carlisle who used to coach Artest in Indiana.

Jamaal Tinsley: Speaking of the Pacers, they are definitely shopping Jamaal Tinsley and they feel very strongly that they will be able to move him rather easily once some of the other point guard situations shake out.

Orlando Magic: One of the teams looking to shore up their point guard situation is the Orlando Magic who had offered a contract to Keyon Dooling but it was less than last seasons contract, so he was insulted by it and turned it down. That led to the Magic signing veteran point guard Anthony Johnson instead. They have also been rumors that the Magic have been talking to the Memphis Grizzlies about trying to acquire Javarris Crittenton.

Detroit Pistons: There has been a lot of speculation around the Pistons lately and potential trades they could make. The first piece of speculation is that the Detroit Pistons are trying to trade for Tracey McGrady. The second rumor is that they are trying to offering Chauncey Billups to the Warriors for Andris Biedrins. However, the Warriors are countering with Al Harrington instead of Biedrins. I'm not really buying either one of these rumors but I've seen a lot of rumors involving the Pistons trading Chauncey Billups, which seems crazy when you think about it. If it's true they are thinking about trading Billups, then either they really love Rodney Stuckey or they think Billups is starting to get old. I'm not sold that the Pistons would trade Billups and if they do then I think it would not be a very smart move unless they are getting an All-Star quality talent back for him.

More: NBA Weekly & NBA

Road Record Shows LA Angels Could Be Favorites in AL

Antone — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 12:49:47 GMT

While commenting on another blog about teams with losing road records being able to win the World Series, I came across some interesting infomation and thought I would post it here. There seems to be a strong correlation between AL teams road record and their chances of making the World Series.

Here are the road records of the World Series Champs and Losers in the Wild Card Era, which dates back to 1995:

Year

World Series Winner

World Series Loser

2007:

Boston 45-36

Colorado 39-42

2006:

St Louis 34-47

Detroit 49-32

2005:

Chicago 52-29

Houston 36-45

2004:

Boston 43-38

St Louis 52-29

2003:

Florida 38-43

Yankees 51-29

2002:

Angels 45-36

SF Giants 45-35

2001:

Arizona 44-37

Yankees 44-37

2000:

Yankees 43-38

NY Mets 39-42

1999:

Yankees 50-31

Atlanta 47-34

1998:

Yankees 52-29

San Diego 44-37

1997:

Florida 40-41

Cleveland 42-38

1996:

Yankees 43-39

Atlanta 40-41

1995:

Atlanta 46-26

Cleveland 46-26

Only 3 out of 13 teams that won the World Series had a losing road record and they all were from the NL. Twice the Marlins did it and the other time was the flukey season from the Cardinals. 4 other times the NL team that lost the World Series had a losing road record. So 7 out 13 NL teams that made the World Series had losing records.

However, no AL team has made the World Series with a losing road record during this time. All 13 had winning road records, regardless if they won the Series or not. So I would suspect that since the AL is a tougher league, then it is harder for a team with a losing road record to make it out of the AL and get to the World Series.

In the NL, it seems like the hottest team at that time makes the World Series, so it is possible a weaker team like the Cardinals of 2006 would be able sneak through the NL Playoffs and get to to the World Series. In the AL, a team needs to be strong throughout the whole season on the road in order to make the World Series.

So what does that mean for this season? Well, it's great news if you are a Los Angeles Angels fan, encouraging news for New York Yankees, Oakland A's, and Texas Rangers fans, and really bad news for Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, and Tampa Bay Rays fans.

Right now the Los Angeles Angels are the ONLY team in the American League with a winning road record and they are well over .500 at 31-18. Based on the recent trend of teams in the AL needing a winning road record to make the World Series, then this would suggest that they are far and away the AL team that is most likely to make it to the World Series.

On the other end of that spectrum are the Boston Red Sox (21-29), Chicago White Sox (22-27), and Tampa Bay Rays (19-25), who would all be in the playoffs if they started today but as you can see they all have losing road records as well. This is bad news for these teams because the trend suggests that they would have no chance of beating the Angels and making the World Series. This is definitely something to look at, especially if these teams continue to have losing road records throughout the second half of the season.

There are also 3 teams who have .500 road records: the New York Yankees, Oakland A's, and Texas Rangers. These teams have a chance to go on either side of the trend and if any one of them picks it up on the road and also makes the playoffs, then they could be in contention to make the World Series along with the Angels.

I know I haven't been big on the Angels so far this season but after looking at this data, I would consider them the favorites. Boston is the wild card in all of this because they certainly have the talent to finish with a winning road record. However, they have a lot of tough road games left in the 2nd half of the season: Angels(3), Seattle(3), Kansas City(3), White Sox(4), Baltimore(3), Toronto(3), Yankees(3), Texas(3), Tampa Bay(3), and finally Toronto(3) again. That is a total of 31 road games remaining and I predict they will go 21-10 at best during these 31 games. That would put their road record at 42-39, which would just barely be good enough for them to fall in line with the trend. So basically, Boston has very little margin of error left when it comes to road games and I think something like 19-12 would be a more reasonable road record the rest of the way, which would put them at 40-41 on the road.

Now I wouldn't go celebrating yet if I were the Angels but things are definitely looking good for them based on this data. So, make sure to keep an eye on the road records of all the teams in contention in the American League during the second half of the season because it may clue you in to who will be representing the AL in the World Series this year.

More: MLB

MLB Weekly: Rich Harden, Oakland A's Young Pitching and More

Antone — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 12:37:38 GMT

Rich Harden: The biggest news from the past week was that the Cubs countered the Brewers move of acquring C.C Sabathia by trading for Oakland A's ace Rich Harden:

The Cubs landed Harden one day after the NL Central rival Milwaukee Brewers got CC Sabathia. Harden heard the rumors and they intensified last weekend when he was in Chicago pitching for the A's against the White Sox. Now the reality of the deal is here. The Cubs also received right-hander Chad Gaudin, who will be used in relief, while sending promising right-hander Sean Gallagher, outfielder Matt Murton, infielder-outfielder Eric Patterson and minor league catcher Josh Donaldson to the A's. (ESPN)

Last week I had touched on the need for the Cubs to acquire a frontline pitcher to go along with Carlos Zambrano. At that point, I thought it would be more likely to be A.J. Burnett headed to the Cubs rather than Rich Harden because I thought that the Cubs did not have enough to trade for Harden, however I think I slept on Sean Gallagher too much because he is still young and has plenty of potential.

Now that the Cubs have landed Harden, they should be the clear cut favorites in the National League, provided that Harden stays healthy for the remainder of the season. That is certainly not a guarantee considering Harden's extensive injury history. They did acquire some insurance for Harden in swingman Chad Gaudin, who has been pitching out of the bullpen but was a starter last season and pitched almost 200 innings. My guess would be that Harden will be injured at some point but I think the Cubs will be happy as long as Harden can pitch for them in the playoffs. I'm sure they will not over use him either since they are almost a lock to make the playoffs at this point.

Oakland A's: My first reaction to the Oakland A's trading Rich Harden was one of shock because they traded an ace pitcher when they are still very much in the playoff hunt in the American League. However, after thinking it over, they did get a very good return for a pitcher who most likely will be injured again at some point. It was definitely worth the risk to unload him for a prospect like Sean Gallagher, but the Oakland A's also have four other talented pitchers in the minor leagues in Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, James Simmons, and Brett Anderson:

Gio Gonzalez: When Gonzalez first faced Fresno on June 18, he pitched his best game of the season: eight shutout innings, one hit, 12 strikeouts, no walks. That is, it was his best game of the season until he traveled to Fresno on the Fourth of July. In his second showdown with the Grizzlies, Gonzalez went the full nine innings, struck out 13 batters, walked two and allowed only one run on one hit, a solo homer by left fielder Eugenio Velez. Velez is now in the big leagues. Can it be a coincidence? Oh yeah, Gonzalez also pitched well in his second start of the week, limiting Colorado Springs to one run on one hit in six innings. That's a grand total of five baserunners in two starts-or exactly one-fourth his strikeout total in that span. And with 110 strikeouts on the year, Gonzalez has taken the PCL lead. The centerpiece of last offseason's Nick Swisher trade, Gonzalez may be turning a corner in his development at Triple-A. His walks per nine innings rate still is a bit too high, at 4.3, and he pitches much better at home (2.41 ERA vs. 6.79), but over his last five starts, he's gone 4-1, 2.27 with 44 strikeouts, 11 walks and three home runs allowed in 31 2/3 innings. And that's including a six runs in 2 2/3 inning disaster on June 23. (Baseball America)

Trevor Cahill: Double-A has not yet been the great equalizer for Cahill, who keeps humming along after three solid starts for Midland. He's given up just four runs on eight hits, while striking out 18 and walking eight, in 19 innings. And with a 3.75 groundout-to-fly out mark, he continues to pound the bottom of the zone with his low-90s sinker. Cahill, The minor league strikeout (121) and average (.165) leader, starts today for the RockHounds, leaving his availability for Sunday's Futures Game up in the air. (Baseball America)

James Simmons: It's the Week of the A's pitcher, with three Oakland farmhands ranking in the top four. Simmons, a first-round pick out of UC Riverside in 2007, has such advanced command that he hasn't spent a day below Double-A-not even a tune-up in the short-season Northwest League after signing last year. He retired the first 10 batters he faced this week, and struck out 11 total, but had to "settle" for an eight-inning two-hitter. With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-A batters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland's pitching depth is officially the envy of baseball. (Baseball America)

Brett Anderson: (acquired in Haren trade): A former second-round pick, Anderson's first professional season went well as he posted a 3.07 ERA and 125/21 strikeout to walk ratio in 120.1 innings split between two levels of A-ball. Though he's more of a lefty command pitcher without nearly as much upside as the recently acquired Gonzalez or De Los Santos, Goldstein argues he's one the finest pitching prospect in the Oakland system citing his breaking ball and changeup as both plus pitches. It'll be interesting to see how Anderson performs at higher levels of play, but Oakland's got a good one here. (Beyond The Boxscore)

With this kind of pitching depth in the minors and with the addition of Gallagher, who just happened to throw 7 innings the other night and only give up 2 runs, the A's could afford to unload Rich Harden. In fact Beyond The Boxscore thinks the Harden trade was a very good deal for the A's and that Sean Gallagher is the key:

But the key to this trade is Sean Gallagher, a righty who I believe some are underrating. For some reason, people like to focus on Gallagher's negatives - he's hefty and does not offer much to project upon- rather than his positives. Both of these statements are true, but they obscure the positives: Gallagher is already good. Just 22 years old, Gallagher has excelled at every level of the minor leagues, doing exactly what you want a young pitcher to do: staying healthy, striking out a batter per inning, and limiting his walks and his homers. In 481 career minor league innings, Gallagher has struck out 482, while only giving up 188 walks and 26 homers. He has had success at the upper level of the minors as well: in 216 innings across Double-A and Triple-A, Gallagher has a 2.96 ERA and 212/101 K/BB ratio (55 of those walks came as a 20-year-old in double-A in 2006), while surrendering only ten homers. Oh, and he did it while pitching half of his games in parks which marginally favored hitters. Gallagher has been fairly successful in the majors as well, despite the poor handling of him and his role. Gallagher has a more-than-respectable 49/22 ratio in 58 innings with the Cubs this year, having surrendered six homers (four of which were hit in homer-happy parks: US Cellular Field, Great American Ballpark, and MinuteMaid Park). (Beyond The Boxscore)

Seems like Billy Beane still has the stuff to keep his team competitive in creative ways and I will never second guess any moves that he makes.

John Danks: Danks has been excellent this season posting a 7-4 record with a 2.67 ERA, 94 strikouts and 162 ERA+ in 114.7 innings. Statiscally speaking, he has been the best pitcher on the White Sox this season and Beyond the Boxscore took a look at why he has been so successfull. The conclusion is that Danks is getting more ground ball outs than in previous years, which is probably due to a combination of his addition of a cutter, increasing velocity, and different break from his slider/curveball. At just 23 years old, the White Sox could have a solid left handed pitcher for years to come if Danks can keep pitching this way.

Worst All-Star Selections: In honor of Jason Varitek, who probably deserves to be on this list as the worst All-Star catcher ever, Hard Ball Times took a look at the Worst All-Star Selections ever. The selections include a pretty funny story about how Alfredo Griffin got selected to the All-Star team in 1984.

Moises Alou: Moises Alou is hurt once again and is out for the season, which could mean the end of his career. If Alou is indeed forced to retire, expect to see me post something on his career stats at some point after his announcement. In the meantime, the Mets could be looking at Seattle Mariners outfielder Raul Ibanez as a replacement in the outfield for Alou. Ibanez has a solid bat and can certainly help the Mets. I do think he is a little shakey in the outfield but he probably has more range than Alou does.

More: MLB Weekly

Evan Longoria & Corey Hart Win Fan All-Star Vote

Antone — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 17:58:27 GMT

The last two players have been selected to the MLB All-Star Game and the fans chose Tampa Bay 3B Evan Longoria and Milwaukee Brewers OF Corey Hart.

I don't have a problem with the selection of Evan Longoria because quite frankly he probably should have been chosen ahead of the current backup All Stars at 3B, Joe Crede of the Chicago White Sox and Carlos Guillen of the Detroit Tigers. Unfortunately because of the poor selection of Crede by the AL players, his own teammate Jermaine Dye got screwed out of a well deserved All-Star berth.

Here are Dye's numbers this season: .301/20 HR/53 RBI/.355 OBP/.550 SLG/136 OPS+

The National League Selection for the last player is just ridiculous. How so many people can vote for Corey Hart over Pat Burrell and David Wright is mind boggling to me. Check out the stats below and you can see that both Burrell and Wright are having much better seasons than Hart is:

Pat Burrell: .279/22 HR/54 RBI/69 BB/.412 OBP/.581 SLG/.993 OPS/155 OPS+
David Wright: .288/17 HR/70 RBI/10 SB/.386 OBP/.511 SLG/.897 OPS/139 OPS+
Corey Hart: .292/17 HR/57 RBI/13 SB/.332 OBP/.510 SLG/.842 OPS/118 OPS+

In fact, Pat Burrell is 4th in the NL and 5th in all of baseball with a .993 OPS(On Base + SLG) behind only Lance Berkman, Chipper Jones, and Albert Pujols. The fact that he was left off the All-Star team is pretty much a joke and it's even worse that the fans had a chance to vote him in and didn't. Fortunately for Pat Burrell, Alfonso Soriano is injured, so Manager Clint Hurdle has the opportunity to pick a replacement for him. If he does not pick Burrell as the replacement then it would be really be a shame.

More: MLB All-Star Game

Brandon Jennings to Skip College and Play In Europe

Antone — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 12:26:10 GMT

So as you may have heard by now, Brandon Jennings has decided to skip his Freshman year at Arizona and play overseas in Europe instead:

Arizona signee Brandon Jennings will pursue a professional basketball career in Europe, backing out on his commitment to the Wildcats. "Over the course of the last two months I have consulted a number of people in basketball before coming to this decision," Jennings said in a statement released Tuesday night through his attorney, Jeff Valle. "I would like to thank the University of Arizona for their interest and support through this process." Valle said several European teams have expressed interest in Jennings, but would not reveal where his client might be headed. "We're disappointed in terms of Brandon's decision, but we want to wish him the best of luck," Arizona coach Lute Olson said in a statement. "We hope that things turn out well for him in the future." (ESPN)

I'm disappointed about this news because I was looking forward to watching Jennings play in college this season at the University of Arizona. Since most of the best players leave college for the NBA each year, as a fan of the college game I always like to watch the top freshman play because they are usually the best players in the whole college game. The departure of Jennings to Europe means that we will have one less top player in college basketball this season.

I truly have enjoyed being able to watch players like Kevin Durant, Michael Beasley, and Derrick Rose for one year in college before they enter the NBA. A lot of people are against one and done players but I like it because we can watch them play and become familiar with their games, so by the time they enter the NBA, there is a familiarity with them that wouldn't exist with a high school senior jumping straight to the pros. I believe this is the same reason why it is so hard for us to follow the European players who come over to the NBA because we simply just aren't familiar with who they are and there is no connection to them or their individual games.

If Jennings is successful, it's quite possible that other Freshman will follow his route in the future, which in my mind would greatly dilute the talent pool of the college game. It would basically be like watching a bunch of mid-majors compete against each other. Now I don't think every top Freshman would follow in Jennings footsteps and head over to Europe but I'm sure this won't be the last time this happens, unless the NBA makes high school players eligible for the draft again.

Even though Jennings will be playing overseas in Europe, I fully intend to follow his progress and give updates on his performance as frequently as possible. I'm not sure how much info is out there on Euro league games but I'm sure that there will be plenty of information on Jennings for me to offer. The only drawback is that we probably won't get to actually watch him play in a game, although I would not be shocked if ESPN televised one of his games every so often if he performs well.

As soon as Brandon Jennings signs with a European team, I will fill you in on the details.

More: Brandon Jennings

NBA Weekly: Elton Brand to 76ers, Lamar Odom for Ron Artest?

Antone — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 12:46:05 GMT

Elton Brand: Somehow, someway the Los Angeles Clippers are staying in the news this offseason. After just recently signing Baron Davis away from the Golden State Warriors last week, the Clippers have now lost Elton Brand to the Phildelphia 76ers. Brand agreed to a 5 year, $80 million dollar contract spurning the LA Clippers to join an up and coming 76ers team in the East.

Now I don't claim to be a prophet of any sort but here is what I had to say about the 76ers after their second round postseason loss to the Detroit Pistons:

Philadelphia is Gone Fishin' but they should be congratulated for having such a good season, which was not expected of them. Hopefully, they will be able to build upon this season and continue to improve for next season. They probably should look at maybe signing a free agent like Elton Brand if they want to be able to get out of the first round of the playoffs.

The key here is that I said they should sign Elton Brand if they want to get out of the first round of the playoffs. There is no guarantee they would make it out of the second round with Brand, even though some experts are asking the question of whether or not the 76ers can compete with the Celtics next season. I find that highly unlikely because as good as Brand is, he is no Kevin Garnett and as good as Andre Iguodala is, he is no Paul Pierce and they certainly don't have a sharp shooter like Ray Allen on their team.

I think Philly will be a solid team in the East and they could finish anywhere from 2nd to 5th in the conference. Detroit, Orlando, and Cleveland could all possibly be better than the 76ers still but Philly should be right up there with them all season. Toronto and Washington have to be the big losers here because I think Philly is clearly better than both of them now and if the Hawks keep their squad together then they will be right there in the mix too for the last three playoff spots. It should be an interesting season in the East and I'm looking forward to it already. Don't forget about Miami either, with a healthy Dwayne Wade, Shawn Marion, and Michaeal Beasley.

In order to sign Elton Brand, the 76ers had to clear some cap space by trading Rodney Carney and Calvin Booth to Minnesota. Minnesota also picks up a first round draft pick that the 76ers had acquired from the Utah Jazz in the Kyle Korver trade.

Corey Maggette: In other Clipper related news, it looks like Corey Maggette will sign a 5 year-$50 million dollar deal with the Golden State Warriors. I thought for sure Maggette would go to a proven winner like San Antonio and they were after him hard but apparently Maggette would rather waste away in mediocrity with the Warriors. I don't really think this is a good move for the Warriors either because they should be focusing on re-signing Monta Ellis and they already have a similar player to Maggette in Stephen Jackson. A scoring swingman is not a major need for the Warriors to me, they should be focusing on point guard and a low post presence in my eyes.

To top it off the Golden State Warriors Examiner gives us some more reasons why it would be a bad move for the Warriors to sign Corey Maggette to such a big contract:

If the Warriors give Maggette more than three years at more than $6 million per, they're going to regret the move. And here's why: First off, Maggette is injury prone. He's been in the league nine seasons and has played 70 or more games just four times in his career. Maggette's body says Iron Man; his stats say Tin Man. Maggette is a great sub, the kind of aggressive scorer you love coming off the bench. He has a shoot first mentality and is a mediocre defender at best. In other words, as a sixth man he's great, as a starter he's not. Maggette has made it clear he wants to start and be a primary offensive option. But he's the type of high-maintenance player who doesn't make teammates better. In fact, because he doesn't create much, there tends to be a lot of standing around when he's got the ball on the perimeter. Maggette has never played for a winner. His teams have missed the playoffs in eight of the nine seasons he's been in the league. The one year a Maggette team made the playoffs was in 2006, when the Clippers made it to the postseason. That year Maggette played 32 games. (Golden State Warriors Examiner)

Ouch, sounds like Maggette will not be welcomed by the fans if he comes to Golden State. I don't think the move is as bad as the Examiner makes it out to be but it still is probably not the best move the team could make. Josh Smith in fact would look a lot better on this team that Maggette but maybe the Warriors have another free agent they will be targeting. There are also rumors they could be looking at Kurt Hinrich.

Josh Smith: Since the Clippers lost both Elton Brand and Corey Maggette. it is possible that they will know throw a boatload of money at Hawks free agent Josh Smith. The Hawks can match any offer to Smith and with the 76ers using their cap space on Elton Brand, the Clippers are one of the few teams who can afford to give Josh Smith a big contract. Hopefully, the Hawks will do the right thing and match any offers for Smith, so that they can keep their young nucleus together. The Clippers have also been looking at Charlotte Bobcats free agent Emeka Okafor.

Lamar Odom for Ron Artest: That is the latest trade rumor that has been floating around. I think that would be a bad move for the Lakers. Sure, Artest is a great defensive player and he gives Paul Pierce a ton of trouble but does anyone really think Ron Artest and Kobe Bryant can co-exist on the same team? I could almost bet these two would get into a fist fight during the season. Despite disappearing at times in the Finals, Odom really played well for the Lakers last season and he is definitely a team player who can co-exist and complement Kobe Bryant and I'm not so sure Artest can do that.

Andrew Bogut: The Millwaukee Bucks have extended Andrew Bogut with a 5 year, $73 million dollar contract. Bogut is a borderline All-Star, averaging 14.3 points and 9.8 rebounds a game last season. He did come on strong at the end of the season, so maybe the Bucks feel he is going to breakout soon and wanted to lock him up now. I'm not sure I would committ $70 million to him just yet but don't be surprised if Bogut has a big season this year, especially with some added talent around him.

Other free agent news and trade rumors:

- Chris Duhon signed a 2 year deal with the Knicks. I like this move for the Knicks because Duhon is underrated and has a 4 to 1 assist to turnover ratio, which is impressive.

- Mickael Pietrus signed with the Orlando Magic. Another good move for the Magic. Why do I have the feeling that Orlando will be better than Detroit next season? Just a hunch on my part.

- Ronny Turiaf was offered a 4 year deal from the Golden State Warriors for $17 million. It is now up the Lakers to match the offer. If they don't bring back Turiaf, there are rumors they will go after Kurt Thomas.

- James Jones signed a 3-year deal with the Miami Heat.

- The Clippers renounced the rights to Shaun Livingston: According to the NBA collective bargaining agreement, a renounced player no longer counts toward team salary, so teams use renouncement to gain additional cap room. A team can still re-sign such a player, but the team must either have enough salary cap room to fit the salary, or sign the player using the minimum salary exception. After renouncing a player, a team also can trade him in a sign-and-trade agreement. (CBS Sportsline)

- The latest rumor is that the Bulls will part with Ben Gordon and keep Kurt Hinrich. This actually might not be that bad of a move for the Bulls because Derrick Rose probably needs a year under his belt before he makes an impact on their team.

- Raymond Felton could have considerable trade value if the Bobcats decide to go that route.

- The Spurs reportedly have a deal with Wizards guard Roger Mason, Jr.

More: NBA Weekly & NBA