Forrester's Blog

NBA trade deadline impact

pwf — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 22:17:12 GMT

One of the most active trading seasons in recent NBA memory came to a conclusion with a bang Thursday as the Cavaliers, Bulls and Sonics worked an 11-player deal at the deadline. Aside from a few minor deals, the deadline saw a handful of title hopefuls significantly change their DNA in hopes of raising the O'Brien trophy in June. To summarize the major additions:

Lakers: Pau Gasol, PF/C, from Memphis
Suns: Shaquille O'Neal, C, from Miami
Mavericks: Jason Kidd, PG, from New Jersey
Cavaliers: Ben Wallace, C, from Chicago; Wally Szczerbiak, SG, Delonte West, PG, from Seattle

Not to be outdone, the defending champion Spurs added Kurt Thomas while the upstart Hornets picked up Bonzi Wells and Mike James from the Rockets, who added Bobby Jackson to their mix. Even the Hawks joined the frenzy by acquiring point guard Mike Bibby for a run at a weak group of Eastern Conference playoff contenders.

So who made out best? More important, which deal will help advance its team the farthest come the postseason? While most agree the Lakers made out like bandits in teaming Gasol with Kobe Bryant, the depth of the West playoff pool could still see L.A. dispatched quicker than a lesser Cleveland team, which has the advantage of playing in the East.

From this corner, we still think the Lakers deal will pay the best dividends come spring, which we believe as much for who is stalking the Lakers' sideline, and the depth of their bench, as much for Gasol.

What do you think?

Most curious free-agent deals

pwf — Tue, 17 Jul 2007 15:30:52 GMT

The frenzy that accompanied the onset of NBA free agency has slowed to a waltz of mid-level signings and veteran-minimum deals. That gives us a chance to catch our breath and take the temperature of some of the deals that have already closed. And though it appears many teams have adopted a more prudent approach in throwing dollars after talent, a few teams have made some curious deals.

Rashard Lewis, Orlando Magic: There's little doubt Lewis and his outside range will help open the middle up for Dwight Howard and provide an offensive boost to a team desperate for scoring. But the Magic likely outbid themselves in handing the 6-10 forward $110 million over the next six years. Not only was that $15 million more than what Chauncey Billups (a free agent who could have helped the Magic even more) agreed to from Detroit, but it forced Orlando to cut ties to their own free agent, Darko Milicic. The former No. 2 pick in the 2003 draft may never live up to his pre-draft hype, but at age 22, he has shown signs of developing into a versatile big man, one that could have kept the paint relatively clean for Howard to patrol while Lewis hoisted jumpers. In overpaying for Lewis, the Magic tied up their hands this year and beyond, and for a team that was swept out of the first round of the playoffs last year, will Lewis translate into even a second-round appearance? He had better.

Jason Kapono, Toronto Raptors: This smells like Damon Jones to Cleveland, doesn't it? Kapono had a career year last season, converting 51 percent of his 3-point attempts for the Heat while defenses collapsed on Shaquille O'Neal and Dwyane Wade. The Raptors obviously feel he can pull off a similar feat with Chris Bosh down low; why else would they have agreed to expand Kapono's bank account by $24 million over the next five years? But Bosh is no Shaq and Anthony Parker is no Wade. That's not a knock, just an acknowledgment that Toronto plays a different style than Miami. That doesn't mean they can't use Kapono's range, but if they think they'll be getting the production Kapono found in the shadow of one of the game's most dominant big men, they will be scrambling to unload his contract as hard as the Cavs are now trying to unload Jones.

Steve Blake, Portland Trail Blazers: Something isn't adding up in Portland? Jarrett Jack started at point guard last season as an NBA sophomore. Spanish sensation Sergio Rodriguez is a backup many teams would love to have as their starter. And now you go out and get Blake? We can't imagine Blake left a starting gig for a playoff team in Denver to ride the pine for a lottery team. So what is the next step? Luckily, expectations will be such in Portland that coach Nate McMillan will have the chance to weed out his point guard rotation and decide who sees the floor and who the front office gets to play with as a trade asset.

Derek Fisher, L.A. Lakers: Sure, we're happy Fisher's child will receive the medical treatment she needs in L.A. easier than she would have in Salt Lake City. But for as much as the Lakers needed to strengthen themselves in the paint, GM Mitch Kupchak chooses to boost the backcourt with a $14 million deal for a soon-to-be 33-year-old tweener point guard? Sure he will play better D than Smush parker and his familiarity and the respect he carries may keep Kobe's dissension in check at times, but his inability to offer much relief to Kobe from opposing defenses likely won't help the Lakers' playoff prospects.

That's what has been puzzling us a bit. What do you think of these deals? Or is something even more ridiculous gnawing at your conscience?

NFL Fan Value Index

pwf — Wed, 11 Jul 2007 14:29:18 GMT

After evaluating the best and worst fan experiences in Major League Baseball the past two years, SI.com has turned its attention to the NFL. With your help, we will determine which team offers the best bang for its fans' bucks and present the findings -- with your comments -- prior to the start of the 2007 season. All it takes is a few minutes to answer our short survey.

And if that isn't enough to to air all your feelings about your best and worst NFL game experiences, let us know what you like to add below.

Thanks for your help.

Ranking the NFL's owners

pwf — Mon, 02 Jul 2007 18:33:47 GMT

Operating an NFL franchise may require money, and lots of it, but it also requires smarts. The best owners hire creative people, financially support their visions and get out of the way, at least some of the time. Just as important, the NFL's money men also learn from their mistakes and evolve their operating philosophies with the changing business environment. These are the sort of people who top SI.com writer Michael Silver's ranking of every ownership group in the NFL, from best to worst:

1. Robert Kraft (Jonathan Kraft), Patriots
2. Jerry Jones (Stephen Jones), Cowboys
3. Jerry Richardson (Mark Richardson), Panthers
4. Bryan, Joel and Ed Glazer, Buccaneers
5. Daniel Snyder, Redskins
6. Jeffrey Lurie, Eagles
7. Bob McNair, Texans
8. Wayne Huizenga, Dolphins
9. Dan Rooney, Steelers
10. Pat Bowlen, Broncos
11. Jimmy Irsay, Colts
12. Paul Allen, Seahawks
13. Steve Bisciotti, Ravens
14. John Mara/Jonathan Tisch, Giants
15. Clark Hunt, Chiefs
16. Bob Harlan/Green Bay Packers Inc. (Brett Favre)
17. Woody Johnson, Jets
18. Bud Adams, Titans
19. Arthur Blank, Falcons
20. Al Davis, Raiders
21. Georgia Frontiere (John Shaw), Rams
22. Randy Lerner, Browns
23. Zygi Wilf, Vikings
24. Alex Spanos, Chargers
25. Denise DeBartolo York and John York, 49ers
26. Michael McCaskey, Bears
27. Bill Bidwill (Michael Bidwill), Cardinals
28. Wayne Weaver, Jaguars
29. William Clay Ford (Bill Ford Jr.), Lions
30. Ralph Wilson, Bills
31. Tom Benson, Saints
32. Mike Brown, Bengals

That's SI's take, but what is yours? Is the thought that Jones and Snyder both being among the five best owners unfathomable? Is Detroit's William Clay Ford too high, even at 29? Where was Silver right or wrong?

Was NASCAR too harsh?

pwf — Tue, 26 Jun 2007 21:58:21 GMT

Since Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon failed pre-race car of Tomorrow inspections last Friady at Sonoma, NASCAR Nation has waited for the sport's governing body to respond. Tuesday it did, docking each driver 100 points and suspending crew chiefs Chad Knaus and Steve Letarte six races each. While Gordon maintained his points lead, Johnson fell to fifth.

So, did NASCAR act appropriately in handing down its sentences?

Best storylines of the Finals

pwf — Thu, 07 Jun 2007 15:49:51 GMT

The Finals have been -- correctly -- billed as LeBron vs. the Spurs. But there are a host of more subtle storylines that are just as intriguing:

LeBron vs. Bruce Bowen: Rare is the star who hasn't openly ripped into Bowen and his defensive tactics. To this point, James has fared well against the Spurs' stopper, but after stepping on each other's toes - literally -- for four or more games, will James join the Vince Carters and Ray Allens of the NBA in criticizing Bowen? James has rolled his ankle a few times this season already; another instance at the feet of Bowen might be too much even for the league's new face to hold his tongue.

Another lesson for Mike Brown: The Cavs coach developed many of his philosophies at the arm of Spurs coach Gregg Popovich, whom Brown assisted from 2000-03. Even in this spring's playoffs, Brown would consult with his mentor. Now school's out and Brown will have to fly on his own. And though the Cavs seem to have adopted Brown's defensive principles, they far too often look lost on offense, a state Brown has been reluctant to admit. The Spurs' boa-constrictor-tight defense, though, may demonstrate even to Brown just how dysfunctional the Cleveland offense can be.

Floppers Ball: Cleveland's Anderson Varejao drove the Pistons' batty with his penchant for drawing offensive fouls, most of which the Pistons felt were more acting jobs than fouls. He will meet his match in fellow thespian Manu Ginobili, who is no stranger to sprawling backwards on the floor. With Ginobili likely to be defending players with far less respect from the refs than Varejao will with Duncan, our money is on the Spurs' dervish to win this battle, but Duncan's role in getting referee Joey Crawford booted late in the regular season could make this interesting.

The James Gang: Cleveland's supporting cast not only has been cast aside as largely anonymous, but ineffective, too. And while there is no one on the Cleveland roster the likes of Tony Parker or Ginobili or even Michael Finley, there are some solid NBA pros such as Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Larry Hughes and Drew Gooden who could make the Spurs sweat a little if they can contribute something meaningful in the boxscore. And they will likely have to as we can't see the Spurs leaving rookie phenom Daniel Gibson as open as Detroit did in the conference finals.

Nothing free for Duncan: Tim Duncan has played like a man possessed in the playoffs, averaging 23.2 points, 11.4 rebounds and 3.3 blocks through 16 games. But he's played like a man scared at the free-throw line, hitting less than 65 percent of his attempts. Considering Duncan is the Spur sent to the line most often, and considering that Cleveland may use as many as four different bigs to defend him, Duncan's foul shooting may well decide how close the Spurs keep the Cavs in each game.

All that written, there is no reason the Spurs shouldn't win this series. They have more talent, better coaching and deeper experience. But the Cavs have played to the level of their competition all season, which should bode well for a Finals more closely contested than many expect.

But that's just my opinion. How do you think the Finals will play out?

Where will Kobe land?

pwf — Wed, 30 May 2007 18:19:32 GMT

So Kobe Bryant wants out from the Lakers. That won't be an easy task for someone who's due to make more than $87 million over the next four years. Undaunted, SI.com takes a crack at the five most logical trading partners.

Chicago Bulls: What better way to take control of a weak East than dealing for the game's best clutch scorer? With an abundance of young talent, the Bulls could offer a package of Luol Deng or Ben Gordon, this year's No. 9 draft pick and Ben Wallace (his bloated contract would have to be included in almost any deal to match Bryant's significant bounty. The deal would offer the Lakers a big step up in rebuilding quickly and offer the Bulls the superstar they might need to separate themselves from the rest of the conference.

Atlanta Hawks: Don't laugh. If the Lakers are forced to part with Kobe, they surely would prefer to ship him East, and the Hawks need something to bring fans to Philips Arena. A Joe Johnson, a Josh Smith and this year's No. 11 pick would help the Lakers turn the page into a new era quickly and allow Atlanta to keep this year's No. 3 and get a gate-attracting star.

Philadelphia 76ers: Yes, he was booed when he played in the All-Star Game in Philly a few years back, but Kobe, you have to imagine, would welcome a chance to play hometown boy makes good. With three first-round draft picks, a veteran in Andre Miller who doesn't really fit on a rebuilding club, an Aaron McKie -- whose expiring $7 million contract will offer significant cap space in the summer of 2008 -- and a rapidly improving Andre Iguodala, the Sixers have plenty of assets to help the Lakers rebuild and provide Kobe a chance to win over the fans he once angered.

Phoenix Suns: Think Kobe would have run out of gas in Game 5 against the Spurs? While owner Robert Sarver is no fan of the luxury tax, the opportunity to grab one of the game's biggest stars and capitalize on Steve Nash's final few years might be too much to deny. And with Shawn Marion's bloated contract -- and sensitive feelings -- never a big hit in the Suns' front office, Phoenix has the makings of a deal (which would likely have to include next year's first-round draft pick they have from Atlanta). Who knows, it might just get the Suns past the Spurs and Mavs and into the Finals it so desires.

New York Knicks: East Coast media bias? A little. Logical? A little. Obviously, Kobe would salivate at the chance to bring his act to the NBA's biggest stage. Would a Lakers team desperate to keep him out of the West and not finding any suitable deals elsewhere accept a collection of promising prospects such as Channing Frye, David Lee, Renaldo Balkman, the No. 21 pick in this year's draft and two years of Steve Francis to get Kobe out of their sight? Would the Knicks include Eddy Curry if Andrew Bynum accompanied Kobe?

Minnesota Timberwolves: At one level, trading Kobe to the Wolves for Kevin Garnett makes sense salary-wise and in giving both superstars a welcome change of scenery. At another, though, a Bryant for Garnett deal doesn't get either player or either team any closer to where they want to go. But with Kevin McHale and Mitch Kupchak involved, you never know.

New Jersey Nets: The Nets aren't enamored of paying Vince Carter $60 million for the next three years; might they warm to the idea if they were paying Kobe Bryant? Of course, it takes two to tango, and while a signed-and-traded Carter might provide L.A. a lite version of Kobe, the Nets would have to include any remaining youth they have at their disposal -- Marcus Williams, Antoine Wright or Josh Boone -- for this deal to make sense for the Lakers.

Any of the above deals make sense to you? Or do you have a better one to offer.

Ranking the No. 1 draft lottery picks

pwf — Tue, 22 May 2007 15:11:12 GMT

Odds are that the Portland Trailblazers, winners of this year's draft lottery, will use the top pick to take Ohio State big man Greg Oden. How have past No. 1 picks worked out since the league instituted the lottery in 1985? Here's one interested observer's ranking. What do you think?

1. Shaquille O'Neal, 1992: Four rings, countless careers made, Hall of Fame plaques buffed for Phil Jackson and -- soon -- Pat Riley. From the time he entered the league until this season, all but five NBA titles have been won by Shaq or the team that eliminated Shaq.

2. Tim Duncan, 1997: Three titles and a fourth likely on the way.

3. LeBron James, 2003: He's scored more than 8,000 points, handed out more than 2,000 assists and grabbed more than 2,000 rebounds, all before the age of 23.

4. Allen Iverson 1996: He may never win a title, but the player with the third-highest career scoring average in NBA history was instrumental in helping the NBA make the transition from old school to new school, with all its pluses and minuses.

5. Patrick Ewing, 1985: Never won the title he famously promised year after year, but he made the Knicks relevant again and a title contender while also helping generate some of the most memorable rivalries in league history.

6. David Robinson, 1987: OK, he needed Duncan to come along before he could finally win a ring, but the onetime MVP averaged 21 points, 10.6 rebounds and blocked more than 2 shots a game in the course of a 14-year career.

7. Chris Webber, 1993: Yes, he's been moody. Yes, he hasn't been great in the clutch. But he may be the best passing big man of his generation, which went a long way toward transforming the Kings from NBA backwater to title contender.

8. Dwight Howard, 2004: After shooting better than 60 percent, scoring almost 18 points a night and grabbing more than 12 boards a game for the second consecutive season, the 22-year-old Howard is only giving a glimpse of the NBA's next dominant big man.

9. Elton Brand, 1999: How a guy who averages better than 20 points, 10 rebounds and 2 blocks per game can play in only one All-Star Game is a mystery. Maybe it has something to do with the fact that he's only led a team to the playoffs once in his career.

10. Yao Ming, 2002: After enduring seemingly endless Chinese national team duty for the first few years of his career, Yao has only recently demonstrated the kind of dominant play the Rockets envisioned when they drafted him.

11. Brad Daugherty, 1986: His eight years of service and relatively unathletic frame belied one of the league's most underrated centers, one who averaged 19 points and almost 10 rebounds a night.

12. Derrick Coleman, 1990: Did you know that DC averaged more than 16 points, 9 rebounds, almost 3 assists and 1.3 blocks per game for his career? Think about how much better those stats could have been if Coleman actually cared about playing.

13. Larry Johnson, 1991: Though a back injury robbed LJ of what he could have been, Johnson quietly transformed himself from low-post pillar to perimeter threat in his later years, extending his useful life as a player despite the fact the he could barely jump.

14. Andrea Bargnani, 2006: As last year's draft prize demonstrated in the playoffs, he already has the perimeter game under control. With a summer of workouts and more playing time, you'll see he has plenty of inside game, too.

15. Kenyon Martin, 2000: After his second microfracture knee surgery, his career is in serious doubt, but when he was healthy, his defense, low-post scoring and rebounding were key to sending the Nets to two straight NBA Finals.

16. Andrew Bogut, 2005: Handed the starting center job in his second season, Bogut didn't disappoint, but he didn't impress. And if a club is going to select you over Deron Williams or Chris Paul, you have to impress.

17. Glenn Robinson, 1994: The Big Dog may have dogged it on defense, but the former Boilermaker brought the goods on the offensive end, averaging among the more empty 20.7 points per game you'd likely see.

18. Joe Smith, 1995: Has he been the superstar most expect a No. 1 to be? No. But he's been a quietly productive power forward for 12 years, which is a lot more than you can say about the fellows who follow on this list.

19. Danny Manning, 1988: It wasn't as if Manning couldn't play -- he averaged almost 21 points, 8 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per 40 minutes of play; it's that he also averaged only 58 games a year.

20. Pervis Ellison, 1989: There's a reason that in 11 seasons, Never Nervous Pervis played for four teams, only one of which reached the playoffs.

21. Michael Olowokandi, 1998: When you're 7-feet, shouldn't you get more than 6.8 rebounds a game? When you're 7-feet, shouldn't you average more than 9.8 points a game more than twice in a career? When you are this big a bust, should you be allowed to make more than $37 million. Life isn't fair.

22. Kwame Brown, 2001: How many supposed franchise players do you know who make more headlines for allegedly throwing a birthday cake at a man on the street in the wee hours than for anything he's done on the court in six seasons?