Baseball Chatter

facebook connect test

Jacob Luft — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 13:41:35 GMT

facebook connect test

facebook test

Jacob Luft — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 00:22:43 GMT

test

todays test

Jacob Luft — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 20:00:29 GMT

test

this is another test

Jacob Luft — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 20:40:46 GMT

test test

this is another test

Jacob Luft — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 20:40:25 GMT

test test

this is a test

Jacob Luft — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 20:37:48 GMT

test

Cy Guys

Jacob Luft — Mon, 20 Aug 2007 04:12:32 GMT

Johan Santana and Brandon Webb aren't ready to give up their Cy Young crowns just yet. The reigning owners of the American and National League Cy Youngs, respectively, are making a late charge after slow starts.

Overshadowed for much of the season by the AL's stable of up-and-coming young stars, Santana set a team record on Sunday with 17 strikeouts in a 1-0 win over the Rangers to improve to 13-9 and lower his ERA to 2.88.

Webb, meanwhile, has decided he's never going to allow another run. Back on July 20, after a loss to the Cubs, the master sinkerballer was 8-8 with an ERA of 3.38. Since then, he's 5-0 with an ERA that matches Blutarsky's grade point average: 0.00. Webb's scoreless streak of 42 innings is two shutouts shy of Orel Hershiser's record of 59.

Even with their recent surges, repeating won't be easy for Webb or Santana. With six weeks remaining in the season, here's how my Cy Young ballots looks so far, though I reserve the right to change my vote if Santana goes on one of his patented late-season runs:

American League

1. Erik Bedard, Orioles
12-4, 2.98 ERA, 207 strikeouts
The majors' strikeout leader would be the runaway frontrunner if not for the Orioles' shaky bullpen. He's had seven outings in which he's gone at least seven innings and allowed three runs or fewer only to come away empty-handed. Just see last week's no-decision against the Yankees after blanking the game's hottest lineup for seven innings as a prime example.

2. Dan Haren, Athletics
13-4, 2.54 ERA, 138 strikeouts
The AL's ERA leader gets bumped down a notch because of the help he's getting form the rangey Oakland defense. Haren's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is 3.63, 1.09 runs higher than his real ERA. Translation: The stellar A's defense has shaved more than a run off his ERA. By comparison, Bedard's FIP is 0.39 runs higher than his real ERA of 2.98, so he hasn't gotten nearly as much help. (Among qualifiers, only Toronto's Shaun Marcum has been boosted more by his defense than Haren.)

3. J.J. Putz, Mariners
2-1, 36 saves, 1.40 ERA
If you are wondering how the Mariners are in the thick of the playoff race despite their pedestrian starting rotation, look no further than Mr. Putz (pronounced "puts," as in, "puts the game away.") The best stat for assessing relievers is kept by Baseball Prospectus and is called "Win Expectation above Replacement." Putz's WXRL leads all AL relievers by more than a 1.5 wins. And his current stats (303 ERA+) compare favorably to the last reliever to win a Cy Young -- Eric Gagne in 2003 (335 ERA+).

Just missed: Santana, Josh Beckett, Kelvim Escobar.

National League

1. Jake Peavy, Padres
13-5, 2.19 ERA, 175 strikeouts
Pitching his home games in Yosemite helps, but not as much as you would think: His ERA on the road is 1.06 compared to 2.97 at Petco. The NL strikeouts leader has pitched nearly 35 more innings than teammate Chris Young, who is tops in the NL in ERA+ (213).

2. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
13-8, 2.63 ERA, 161 strikeouts
The game's hottest pitcher in nearly 20 years gets extra credit for durability -- he leads the NL in innings pitched with 184 2/3. And remember that the year Hershiser set the record, he took home the Cy Young as well.

3. Cole Hamels, Phillies
14-5, 3.50 ERA, 156 strikeouts
The kid leads the NL in strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.00) and pitches his home games in a bandbox. He gets the nod over Young, who has been helped out by Petco Park to a great degree (0.66 ERA at home).

Just missed: Young, Brad Penny, Tim Hudson.

Arizona Dreamin'

Jacob Luft — Wed, 15 Aug 2007 19:17:54 GMT

On Tuesday night Arizona lost 14-5 to Florida in a game that was not as close as the score indicated. After one of the many pitching changes D'backs manager Bob Melvin had to make, a Marlins TV announcer said, "Melvin hasn't had many nights like this."

Uh, yes he has.

More than two-thirds of the way into the season, the biggest conundrum in baseball has to be the Diamondbacks and how they have managed to lead the National League in wins despite getting taken to the woodshed on a regular basis. Tuesday's rout was just the latest example. On Aug. 2 they lost to the Padres 11-0, and a couple of days before that they gave up two touchdowns in a shutout loss to the Braves.

The blowouts have become so common -- Arizona has allowed double-digit runs in losses 13 times this season -- that the D'backs, despite being 14 games over .500, have been outscored by a healthy margin (30 runs). Going strictly by run differential (or Pythagorean record), the D'backs should have a 57-63 record. Instead, they are 67-53 and sitting in the catbird's seat in the NL West.

That means Arizona is playing 10 games above its run differential, which is unusual but not unheard of (the 2004 Yankees played 12 games above their run differential). The only other team close to the D'backs in this regard is Seattle, another Cinderella contender, which is plus-6. (The Mariners' unlikely success was covered ably recently by Fungoes writer Cliff Corcoran.)

The point of looking at Pythag records isn't necessarily to rule on a team being a fluke or a legit contender. It's more of a model that can serve to tell you some things about a team. For example, one of the tenets of Pythag theory is that the truly good teams win close games and blowouts. They have enough talent to simply overpower teams sometimes. Here are the records of the six current division leaders in one-run games and blowouts (5-plus runs):

Boston Red Sox
One-Run Games: 18-17, .514
Blowout (5+ runs): 25-13, .658

Detroit Tigers
One-Run Games: 20-15, .571
Blowout (5+ runs): 17-15, .531

Los Angeles Angels
One-Run Games: 16-12, .571
Blowout (5+ runs): 19-13, .594

New York Mets
One-Run Games: 16-8, .667
Blowout (5+ runs): 23-12, .657

Milwaukee Brewers
One-Run Games: 19-14, .576
Blowout (5+ runs): 15-15, .500

Arizona Diamondbacks
One-Run Games: 26-16, .619
Blowout (5+ runs): 12-22, .353

The D'backs are the only division leader with a losing record in blowout games. (Milwaukee, which also has been outscored on the season, 573 to 568, has broken even in blowouts.) That goes a long way toward explaining the disparity. Here are five other factors to consider:

1) The D'backs have an outstanding back end of the bullpen. When they do have a lead, they rarely give it up. Jose Valverde (155 ERA+), Tony Pena (192 ERA+), Brandon Lyon (164 ERA+), Doug Slaten (194 ERA+) and Juan Cruz (146 ERA+) have been outstanding. (ERA+ is an index whereby 100 is the average; anything above is good and below is bad; provided by baseball-reference.com.) The Mariners are similarly stout in the bullpen with J.J. Putz and his crew of setup men.

2) The other guys in the 'pen, the mopup relievers, are awful. Here's a rule of thumb for D'backs fans: If Dustin Nippert comes into a game, Melvin is waving the white flag. This means that once teams take a comfy lead on Arizona, they can easily pile on more runs.

3) The D'backs are 7-3 in "walkoff games," including three straight walkoff wins from July 26 to 28. Whether this is "magic" or "scrappiness" or just plain luck, it's definitely a factor in the D'backs' success in one-run games.

4) Livan Hernandez. When he's bad, he's really bad. Of those aforementioned 13 games in which the D'backs have allowed more than double-digit runs, Hernandez was the starter in five. His overall numbers aren't terrible (4.85 ERA, 95 ERA+), but when he's not on his game, he gets shelled.

5. Defense and the little things. Arizona plays pretty good defense -- it is tied for fifth in the NL with a .701 defensive efficiency (turning balls in play into outs). The D'backs also lead the major leagues in sac flies with 48, which is a telling stat: Oftentimes sac flies are not a good thing because you give up an out for a run and it depresses your ability to have a big inning, but in a close game a sac fly can make all the difference. Covering a lot of ground on defense and hitting situationally are two things that come in handy in close games.

Run differential is a useful tool, but it starts to lose its predictive value the further you progress into the season. At this point, more than 110 games in, it's safe to say the D'backs are for real. They are what they are -- a decent team that is suited to winning close games but doesn't have the talent to overpower anyone. Where they go from here will depend more on what they get from phenom Justin Upton and whether they can find a fifth starter not named Byung-Hyun Kim than it will on luck or magic or smoke and mirrors.

What's wrong with Gagne?

Jacob Luft — Mon, 13 Aug 2007 19:28:35 GMT

Game over? Not quite.

As Boston's lead in the AL East shrinks by the day -- it's down to four games over the rival Yankees heading into Monday's games -- the harsh glare of Red Sox Nation has focused in on Eric Gagne, the formerly indomitable closer for the Dodgers who resurrected his career with the Rangers this season.

The key phrase there being "with the Rangers." Let's all be honest now: How many Rangers games have any of you watched this year and how often had you seen the 2007 version of Gagne take the mound prior to his debut with the Red Sox on Aug. 2?

If you are still waiting to see the "Game Over" Gagne, vintage 2002-04, you can stop now. It's not happening. What must have been lost in the excitement of the Red Sox's trade-deadline coup is the fact that all we really had to go on with Gagne and his comeback from two years of injuries were the 33 1/3 good innings he had just given Texas.

Now that he's under the spotlight with Boston and made five -- mostly regrettable -- appearances, we can see him for what he is: a pitcher with very good stuff who has to hit his spots to be successful. In particular, he has to hit his spots with his fastball, which now hovers in the low-to-mid 90s instead of the 99-100-plus stratosphere from his days in Los Angeles.

After reviewing his five Red Sox appearances (thanks to MLB.tv), here are prime examples of Gagne getting hurt by catching too much of the plate with his fastball:

• Aug. 4, at Seattle: With Ben Broussard on second base after a single and a stolen base, Gagne grooved a 94 mph fastball to catcher Kenji Johjima. Result: RBI single off the left-field wall. On his very next pitch, Gagne threw another 93 mph fastball down the middle to Jose Lopez. Result: Double to left. With runners on second and third, Gagne threw a quality fastball on the outside corner to Yuniesky Betancourt to induce a groundout and end the inning.

• Aug. 10, at Baltimore: Brought in to protect a 5-1 lead in the eighth, Gagne imploded. Corey Patterson led off with a double off a 93 mph down the middle. Nick Markakis then lined an 83 mph change-up to right field, scoring Patterson. Miguel Tejada walked. After a groundout by Kevin Millar for the first out of the inning, Aubrey Huff ripped a 93 mph fastball to right field for a single that J.D. Drew misplayed into a double. Two more runs in, Gagne heads for the showers and the Sox eventually lose 6-5.

• Aug. 12, at Baltimore: Boston's up 3-1 with Tejada at the plate. Gagne threw seven straight fastballs, the last of which left the yard. Velocity wasn't the problem; the Baltimore TV feed had it clocked at 96 mph. It was location: right down Broadway. (Pitch selection may have been faulty too -- why not go with an off-speed pitch to finish him off?)

Gagne has at times shown good command of his fastball. For example, on Aug. 8 against the Angels, he escaped a two-on, one-out jam by striking out Chone Figgins on a well-placed high fastball and getting Orlando Cabrera to pop up on a high-and-tight 93 mph heater.

The point here isn't to make too much out of four innings worth of pitching, which is all he's done so far in Boston. It's to show that Gagne no longer has the luxury of missing his spots, as he once did when he could hit triple-digits on the radar gun. He has to stay on the corners and lure hitters into swinging at the high cheese if he wants to be successful. In other words, he's just like any other pitcher: human.

The good news for Red Sox fans is that Gagne's problems are correctible. Look at Josh Beckett's transition from the thrower who tried to muscle his pitches past everybody last year (and gave up a career-high 36 home runs in the process) to the technician we see this year, pounding the corners at will. The question is, How long will it take Gagne to work out of this slump, and will it be too late to hold off the Yankees by the time he does?

Pennant Race Predictions

Jacob Luft — Wed, 08 Aug 2007 19:08:40 GMT

With the trade deadline and the Bonds Watch squarely in the rearview mirror, it's time to take stock of the pennant races. Who's in the race, who's out and who will win? Here are my picks for the American League along with my pithy observations on each ballclub. (For National League picks, go HERE.)

All standings updated heading into Wednesday's games.

AL East

Who's in?
Boston Red Sox
Raise your hand if you thought Coco Crisp (.402) and Dustin Pedroia (.436) would both have a higher slugging percentage than J.D. Drew (.378)? Even Julio Lugo (.762 OPS since the break) is starting to hit a little. But the key to this team is run prevention -- pitching and defense. Boston has allowed the fewest runs in the AL, 454, by a wide margin; second-place Oakland has allowed 485.

New York Yankees, 5.0 GB
As kind as the schedule has been lately, it's about to get a lot tougher. The rest of August includes three with Cleveland, eight with Detroit, three with Boston and three with Los Angeles. The Bombers are the classic bullies of late, beating up on overmatched pitching staffs. But what are they going to do against the league's top pitchers and how are they going to match up in the late innings with that flammable bullpen, the addition of rookie Joba "The Hutt" Chamberlain notwithstanding?

Who's out?
Toronto Blue Jays, 11.5 GB
The season isn't a total loss -- young right-handers Shawn Marcum (127 ERA+) and Dustin McGowan (112 ERA+) have been revelations. Plus, the Jays may finally have realized they can't rely on A.J. Burnett.

Baltimore Orioles, 15.0 GB
Led by Erik Bedard and Jeremy Guthrie, the pitching isn't half bad. But it's hard to win consistently with so much flotsam in the lineup. Melvin Mora, Kevin Millar, Jay Payton and Corey Patterson are the definition of mediocrity. The Aubrey Huff/Jay Gibbons platoon at DH has been a disaster.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays, 25.5 GB
There's a solid nucleus here, with Scott Kazmir, Akinori Iwamura, B.J. Upton, Delmon Young, Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford in the fold. There's more talent in the pipeline, too, but getting it all to mesh at the same time will be tricky.

Prediction: Red Sox cruise to their first division crown since the 1995 team Kevin Kennedy always talks about on his XM Radio show.

AL Central

Who's in?
Cleveland Indians
First it should be noted that they wouldn't be in this spot without a superhuman season from Rafael Betancourt and his 314 ERA+ (!) out of the 'pen. The bats are the problem during this recent slump -- the Indians were second in the AL in runs scored in the first half but rank 12th since the break. Josh Barfield (58 OPS+) has been an outmachine at the plate. On the bright side, the trade for Kenny Lofton creates an intriguing platoon with the right-handed Jason Michaels (career .847 OPS against lefties; .730 vs. righties). Plus, Jake Westbrook finally appears to be rounding into form.

Detroit Tigers, 0.5 GB
Don't worry too much about the recent slide -- it's nothing a series with the Devil Rays can't fix. Fernando Rodney is back, and not soon enough for this bullpen, which is still missing Joel Zumaya badly. Jeremy Bonderman has had a couple of ugly starts lately but he's none the worse for wear. Now that Nate Robertson is settling down, the key might be Kenny Rogers, who has yet to find the groove he was in last season.

Minnesota Twins, 6.5 GB
Luis Castillo wasn't as big a loss as some people are making him out to be. He was hitting an empty .300 and he's far removed from his heyday with the Marlins, when he was a force on the bases and a legitimate Gold Glover. The pitching is there to make another AL Central run, but it's hard to score runs with slappies like Jason Kubel, Jason Tyner, Nick Punto and Jason Bartlett getting regular playing time.

Who's out?

Chicago White Sox, 11.5 GB
They have scored the fewest runs in the league, and the pitching isn't any good either, especially in the bullpen. The Jermaine Dye Free-Agency Drive is officially on.

Kansas City Royals, 14.0 GB
This isn't a team anybody wants to play down the stretch. They've posted back-to-back winning months and this lineup is capable of an eruption on any given night.

Prediction: The Tigers' rotation will come together and the bullpen will settle down. They hold off the Indians in a tight race.

AL West

Who's in?
Los Angeles Angels
This pitching staff is deeper than the Laurentian Abyssal. The offense is still all about Vlad, but think about this: Gary Matthews Jr. is second on the team with 14 home runs and tied for second in RBIs with 64. Despite his heavily criticized contract and the HGH scandal in spring training, Matthews has been steady at the plate and in the field. If Howie Kendrick can avoid breaking any more fingers, this will be a dangerous lineup come October.

Seattle Mariners, 4.0 GB
They have gotten this far thanks to a surprisingly effective offense and a crazy good bullpen, which explains why they have outplayed their unimpressive run differential (536 runs scored, 532 runs allowed), but they aren't in the same class as the Angels. Closer J.J. Putz deserves to be mentioned as a legitimate candidate in the Cy Young race.

Who's out?
Oakland, 13.0 GB
They rank 13th in the AL in runs scored despite being second only to the Red Sox in drawing walks. Also, they are one of the best defensive teams -- by any and every metric -- in the majors. So they have a lot of walk-drawing Gold Glovers who can't hit a lick.

Texas Rangers, 17.5 GB
The Mark Teixeira Derby over and the death march has begun. As for the net results from their firesale, it's hard to give GM Jon Daniels the benefit of the doubt when his trade record is so spotty. Those kids he brought in better come through or this franchise is buried for the next five years.

Prediction: Angels pull away down the stretch and the Rally Monkey makes his postseason return.

The Wild Card Race

1. Tigers
2. Yankees, 0.5 GB
3. Mariners, 1.0 GB
4. Twins, 6.0 GB

Prediction: Actually, the Indians. The Tigers win the AL Central and Cleveland gets the consolation prize. The fatally-flawed Yankees will fall a couple of games short.

CLICK HERE FOR NATIONAL LEAGUE PICKS