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Absurd Predictions: Arizona Cardinals 2008

Last year, I made a series of “Absurd Predictions” regarding the upcoming NFL season, including one for each team, and an in-depth look at that team and how they’ve changed this offseason.  At the end I made a prediction of that team’s record.  I won’t be doing that part yet, just giving the team a general grade on how good I think they’ll be at the end of each blog.  Assume an A is probably a first-round bye, a B is a wild-card playoff team, a C is dancing around .500, a D is pretty bad, and an F is a top-three draft pick.

This year, I’ll go through the teams alphabetically.

Today’s absurd prediction:

The Cardinals will tandem their quarterbacks again, and Matt Leinart won’t complain about it this time.

Leinart’s past year has taken some of the wind out of his sails.  He’s gotten scrutinized by the media, he’s been seriously injured and missed a lot of time, and all in all he’s learned he’s not hot snot.  I think this year we’ll see a humbler version; he’ll still want all the playing time, but he now knows he’s got to be good first.  In case anyone missed it last season, Leinart got pulled in two-minute-drill situations in favor of the more experienced Kurt Warner, and it worked really well except that it upset their poor fragile-egoed young QBotF (Quarterback of the Future).

My Thoughts On the Draft...and Its Coverage

There’s no time like the draft where you have a thousand people all printing the same thing.  There’s general consensus on who had a great draft and who had a questionable one.  As usual, I prefer to say things everyone else isn’t saying.  So I’m not going to do the draft grade thing, just share a few thoughts.

My Team Played It Smart! Of course, it was great to see the consensus #1 wideout, Devin Thomas, fall to my Redskins.  And to generally see a different strategy from them; acquiring picks, for example.  At first I didn’t like that we then proceeded to take two other passcatching specialists, but to do what Zorn wants to do, we can’t afford to lose a receiver.

Double-dipping?  It’s an interesting trend – the Packers have a potentially good quarterback of the future.  They took two more.  The Cowboys have a Pro Bowl running back.  They took two more.  The Redskins have two solid receivers, one of which has been to Pro Bowls.  They took two more.  With each team, we’re talking about their first or second overall pick.  Way to pick with confidence, giving us the backup plan as a package deal.

My Guys Are Happy – I watched a number of video clips before the draft, primarily of the fantasy positions, and was impressed with Josh Johnson and Donnie Avery, sort of adopting them as underdog favorites.  Johnson (Tampa Bay) was drafted before several more highly touted guys: André Woodson, Matt Flynn, Erik Ainge, and arguably Colt Brennan.  Avery was the first receiver drafted.  It’s nice to know the scouts agree with me, even if Mel Kiper doesn’t.

Glenn Dorsey, You Know Their Names, Right? – Glenn Dorsey was interviewed right after being chosen by the Chiefs, and was asked who made the call to him.  He said “It was the general manager” and later said “He put the coach on and we talked for a bit.”  I had this inkling he’d forgotten their names, and I found that hilarious.  Though it’s understandable, you start the day having no idea who you’re going to be working for.  Or maybe he was just being nice to us, in case we didn’t know who Carl Peterson and Herm Edwards are.

By The Way, I Can’t Stand Mel Kiper – don’t get me wrong, I love that there’s a guy there to tell us the scoop on all 252 guys selected, and another 100 that could have potentially been selected.  I just hate the way he talks and presents himself.  I turned the broadcast of the draft off after a while, but I noticed at least two times where they were going around the table, and he said the exact same thing someone before him said, but seemed to think he was sharing some new insight that hadn’t been covered yet.  You could feel it around the rest of the table; they were all thinking, “So… nothing to add then,” but they knew they couldn’t bash him on the media.  He clearly wasn’t paying attention to what others were saying and only lives to hear himself talk. 

But The Others Aren’t Much Better – I love how the other guys seemed to be making fun of Kiper for knowing a thing or two about the guys picked at the end of the draft.  It’s kind of his job.  Honestly, I think he only gets to do this every year because he’s the only one willing to go in depth on all the guys available.  And if I were a TV sports anchor, and I was going to be on the spot to talk football throughout all seven rounds, I’d do my research too.  I think every one of them should have known who all of those guys were, so we could have actually seen some debate.  But they assume America is going to lose interest, they stop showing film of the picks, and start talking about Jason Taylor being on Dancing With The Stars, so we have no chance to fall in love with these potential future Marques Colstons from day one.

The Second Person – Between now and next draft, can someone hold a seminar for anyone who covers football to teach them new ways to open a sentence?  If I had a dollar for every time someone started a thought with “You’re talking about” or “You talk about,” I could live off the interest for the rest of my life.  As in “You’re talking about a guy who at 6’4,” 215 pounds, is the prototype for his position.”  Or “You talk about the Patriots, you’re talking about a team that builds from the outside in.  They start with the line, and worry about the rest later.” Which would be building from the inside out to me, but never mind.  My God, man.  You’re the ones talking about all this stuff, not me.  For some reason, these people seem to think it’s bad to speak for themselves, so they phrase their sentences in a way that makes it sound like it’s everyone else’s thoughts too.  This irresponsible use of the second person hit a head when Kiper was asked if he’s ever had a pick called that he knew nothing about.  His response was peppered with things like “When you get in the later rounds, you don’t know all the stats and everything about these guys, maybe you know their height and weight and that’s it.”  He’s talking to YOU, Mel.  At least here, at least in this one instance where he was asking a question of YOU personally, you could have used the word “I” in your response.  But when you talk about Mel Kiper, you’re talking about a guy who can give you a headache just by speaking.

A Couple of Other Bonehead Broadcasting Moments – Now, I know it’s not easy sitting at a desk all day, making sure every silence is filled.  But there were some times I slapped my head because these guys said something ridiculous and didn’t even notice.  For example, Steve Young, in talking (I believe) about Matt Ryan, said something to the effect of “He’s going to do what it takes.  He’s got that mentality: Over my dead body is this going to happen.”  So… he’s suicidal?  Chris Berman used the word “namesake” when pointing out that Dominique Rogers-Cromartie and Antonio Cromartie have the last name.  They’re COUSINS.  I am not my cousin’s namesake, Peyton Manning is not Eli Manning’s namesake.  If I named my kid Diamond Brown, Neil Diamond would be his namesake.  But only if I did that intentionally.  That is the proper use of the term.  Go to school. 

Oh God, Another Interview – Interviews with the coaches and players involved in recent draft choices were the worst part of the day.  Or maybe the best.  They’re excruciating, because the interviewer is trying to get a guy to say “He’s amazing!  Ohmigawd, I can’t believe we drafted Vernon Gholston!” or “Yeah, Baby!  I’m a Jet!”  They’re never going to get that.  It’s the coach’s job to make sure these players don’t get too full of themselves.  Though they’ve got a monster check coming their way that says they’ve made it and they’re the best talent in the league, the coach HAS to counteract that by playing it down and saying nothing better than “We hope he’ll be a good fit for us and do good things for our team.”   As for the players, the reporters aren’t usually going to get good sound bites because the players are in a half-dazed mode induced by the surreal process of knowing that 32 employers are taking turns picking employees, and one of them will probably pick them, and they can’t control which one.  It’s crazy. 

The Number 21 – When the Redskins’ pick number 21 approached, Chris Berman started talking about Sean Taylor, and I thought to myself, “Oh God, he’s going to do it.”  Sure enough, he pointed out that Taylor’s jersey number is 21, and they’re picking 21^st, and said “Maybe more than an accident.”  That’s the other reason I’m SO happy the Redskins traded out of that pick – I couldn’t believe what I was hearing when the Redskins, including Joe Gibbs, were making a big deal about winning games by 21.  This said to me, “Picking 21^st is supernaturally insignificant – we’re moving on.” 

Absurd Draft Predictions: Mr. Irrelevant et al

Just a few leftover Absurd Predictions to conclude my week of crazy blogging: 

1) Only one running back will go in the first round.  Eight will go in the second.  As talented as Rashard Mendenhall and Jonathan Stewart are, teams need receivers and linemen more, and there are plenty of them with first-round talent.  Plus, the later talent at running back is also great, so most teams with room for a running back will be able to get a Steve Slaton or Ray Rice for much cheaper.

2) Malcolm Kelly will slip to the third round.  There are safer options available at WR.  He’s a classic underachiever, and hasn’t done anything to show he won’t be the next diva wideout. 

3) Someone will reach for the kickers.  There are two place-kickers in the draft pool, Art Carmody and Taylor Melhaff, both of whom are known for their consistency and cool under pressure.  SI projects both as seventh-rounders, but a lot of teams need a young kicker.  They’re probably tired of the Feely/Carney/Elam/Mare/Gramatica/Anderson carousel, and want to find a guy who they can count on for years to come.  One of these guys will go in the fifth, the other in the sixth.

4) Mr. Irrelevant will be… D.J. Wolfe.  The last pick of the draft belongs to the St. Louis Rams, a compensatory pick.  It will be the 252^nd choice.  Wolfe is smart and a hard worker who recently moved to safety from running back at Oklahoma.  He’s still learning a lot about the position, but with coaching could perhaps make a difference someday.  He’s the sort of guy you take a long shot gamble on with the last pick in the draft.

Absurd Draft Predictions: A Top Ten Trade

Today's absurd prediction:

Someone will make a major trade into the top 10.

The press has finally figured out the trend that no one wants a top 10 pick, and it's widely publicized, with just about every notable journalist talking about what a pricey gamble a top draft pick is these days.  This is usually right about the time that someone comes along and bucks the trend.  

This isn't a freak occurrence, it makes perfect sense that this would happen.  People who own football teams are savvy investors.  That's why they bought football teams.  They recognize the difference between perceived value of an asset and its actual value, and make decisions accordingly.  They haven't been trading for top picks lately because they've been overvalued.   But now, with everyone up in arms about rookie salaries and how they're ruining the game, suddenly top 10 draft picks are undervalued.  

Despite the fact that there are a large number of high-profile busts at the top of the draft, your odds of finding a long-term impact player ARE higher at higher picks.  Yes, the later rounds are where your scouting team shines and you find the guys that form the bedrock of your team, but when you're talking 20th overall vs. 7th overall, a lot more of those 7th guys have become great players.  Look at this:

7th overall: Adrian Peterson, Michael Huff, Troy Williamson, Roy Williams, Byron Leftwich, Bryant McKinnie, Andre Carter, Thomas Jones, Champ Bailey, Kyle Turley, Ike Hilliard

20th overall:  Aaron Ross, Tamba Hali, Marcus Spears, Kenechi Udeze, George Foster, Javon Walker,

Absurd Draft Predictions: QB Destinations

As I said yesterday, I went through the films of the potential top draft choices at SI.com, at least at the fantasy positions (I refuse to call them “skill positions”), and planned to use my observations in creating a mock draft.  But now I’m not doing a mock draft.  At RB and WR, I only looked at those likely to be chosen in the first two rounds.  But I looked at nearly all of the quarterbacks.  So today, as part of my Absurd Draft Predictions series, I’m going to predict which team is going to end up with each passer.

Of course, these video clips are assemblages of the QB’s best moments, presumably compiled by his agent or someone else who has an interest in making him look good.  I had to take that into consideration.  They are going to tell me 1) what kind of magic the guy can do 2) what talents his agent wants to highlight, and 3) what he probably can’t do, since the video didn’t cover it.  They are not going to tell me how often he misses, what kind of a leader he is, or any number of other valuable pieces of information.

So without further ado, here are my thoughts, and coupled with what the scouts have to say about the guy, my predictions on where these quarterbacks will end up – I’m listing them in order of the draft grade given by SI.com:

1) Matt Ryan, Boston College

The video was amazing.  This guy throws a beautiful ball, and can throw it long.  But of course, one could make a similar video of Rex Grossman throws and he’d look brilliant.  SI says his main weakness is that he loses velocity throwing on the run.  I disagree with a lot of the analysis on the site though; it looks like someone has a crush on the guy.  How do you not bring up the fact that he threw 19 picks?  As you know, I don’t think teams in the top five will think he’s worth the risk, and no one’s going to trade up. 

Drafted by: Baltimore Ravens, early first round – they might move up a few spots, or they might decide he’ll still be there when they pick, but they won’t pass him up.  Ozzie Newsome trusts his ability to get defense in the later rounds.

2) Brian Brohm, Louisville

He failed to excite me on the video.  His play-action was very halfassed, which is a pet peeve of mine.  SI worries about how he gets rattled by the blitz and his inability to escape the rush.  There’s been talk about how ridiculous it is that his draft stock slipped so much, but it sounds like he’s best off being a backup for a while before taking a team on his shoulders. 

Drafted by: St. Louis Rams, early 2^nd round or late 1^st round.  He’ll slip even further than anticipated, making some people pull out their hair and say, “Whaaaat?”  If he slips all the way to the Rams’ 2^nd pick in the 2^nd Marc Bulger is getting up there in years, and the Rams have to be concerned about injury now.  Backing up Bulger for a few years, and also having Trent Green on the team as a mentor, is a great place for Brohm to be, despite the lower pay he’ll receive. round, they’ll decide it’s a worthwhile gamble; they may even move up into the bottom of the first if he’s still there.

3) Joe Flacco, Delaware

Despite the fact that, coming from a small school, Flacco doesn’t have nearly as much high-quality video to work with, he looked great.  Tremendous arm, great size, and while SI lists mobility and ability to escape the rush as a weakness, I saw him moving around the pocket fairly well; he at least has the awareness to dodge the rush.  All in all, he looks very much like an NFL quarterback, and I think he’ll be the second passer selected.

Drafted by: Carolina Panthers, middle 1^st round – They’ll probably take him with their 13^th pick, fearing that they’ll lose him to Chicago if they try to move down.  The choice might surprise some, but ideally he’ll back up Delhomme for a year or two and then be ready to be an instant star.  If they pick defense, they might still end up with him in a trade up to the 20s. 

4) Chad Henne, Michigan

The video made me wonder what the big deal was.  His draft stock has been rising steadily, after looking great in the all-star games and workouts.  He’s probably been impressive in interviews, too.  But the video – if he’s better than the clips showed, he should fire whoever put that together.  The throws were unimpressive, and seemed to be to wide-open targets.  I noticed a tendency to stare down the primary target, which is listed as a “negative” on SI.com.  I think he should be taken by a team like the Lions, where he can battle Drew Stanton for the #1 spot in a year or so.  But indications are he’ll go to a team who’s looking for an instant #1.  Unless this is classic lying-GM-syndrome, trying to get people to think they like Henne when they actually don’t – it’s possible he’ll slip deep into the 2^nd.  But right now I’ll say…

Drafted by: Atlanta Falcons, right after Brohm.  Wherever Brohm is picked, the Falcons will say, “Okay, we want the next quarterback, so let’s make sure we get him.”  Just like the Broncos did with Jay Cutler, picked right after Matt Leinart, and the Redskins did with Jason Campbell, picked right after Aaron Rodgers.

5) Andre’ Woodson, Kentucky

In most of the video clips I saw, I was more impressed with the receivers than the passer.  Granted, Woodson successfully threw the ball away from coverage, but the throws weren’t all that pretty.  If this is the best he has to offer, I’d pass.  There were also some clips of rushes and scrambles, so clearly this guy has speed, but his overall rushing stats were horrible.  That tells me he gets sacked a lot.  I haven’t heard much buzz about the guy since late in the college season, and think he’ll slide even further than people think.

Drafted by: Minnesota Vikings, late third round.  He’ll provide some injury insurance and become a low-risk project. 

6) John David Booty, USC

His broken finger really hurt his draft stock, but will give him the opportunity to get time to develop into an NFL passer.  I was impressed on video, and in the bit of the Rose Bowl I saw.  He’s great at throwing a bullet into a small window, which suits him well for a West Coast offense.  He’s not so good with the deep throws, but there are teams who can definitely use his skills well.

Drafted by: Green Bay Packers, middle third round.  He can’t make the long throws Brett Favre could, but he can throw a bullet to a tight end on a slant like nobody’s business.  I see him fitting very well in the Packers’ scheme.  And he gives them a Plan B in case the fans turn on Aaron Rodgers too quickly.

7) Erik Ainge, Tennessee

He had the worst video of all of them; simple passes completed without a whole lot of oomph.  Again, the receivers were more impressive on the tougher plays.  And this is a pet peeve also: I’m pretty sure he’s only listed this high because he’s 6’5” – I swear, sometimes these guys get to salivating over size, try to translate that into potential, and rank people way too high.  I hereby boldly predict that Ainge never wins an NFL game as a starter.

Drafted by: Cincinnati Bengals, late 4^th round.  I somehow suspect they’d fall for the tall guy thing, and they’ll trade up for him.

8)  Dennis Dixon, Oregon

On video, I had to be impressed by his ability to scramble and improvise.  I like the way this guy thinks.  He’ll be a project as either a quarterback or another position.

Drafted by: Chicago Bears, middle 5^th round.  Having missed out on the top guys in the draft, and perhaps not mourning that fact so much, they’ll take a shot at Dixon, who could turn out to be a special talent.

9) Matt Flynn, LSU

The consensus is that he has the talent, but either lack of experience, motivation, or work ethic has held him back.  He looked good on video, able to hit on a variety of routes, and I was particularly impressed with his patience in the pocket.  So the question is, will he work himself into position to be an NFL starter someday?

Drafted by: New Orleans Saints, middle 5^th round.  Needing a good backup for Drew Brees, they’ll keep him in Louisiana, where he’ll be well supported should his services be needed.

10) Paul Smith, Tulsa

He likes to move around the pocket, but I’m thinking he won’t have success doing that at the NFL level.  He has a fine arm, and plays with enthusiasm, but he’ll still need a lot of coaching to get NFL-ready.  He threw 19 interceptions, and wasn’t exactly facing elite corners in C-USA.

Drafted by: Miami Dolphins, early 7^th round

And Fins fans will complain that only just now are they picking a quarterback, but they, of course, have to give John Beck a real chance to earn his money.  Smith is exactly what they need: a passionate player who will push for starting time, giving Beck the competition he may need.

11) Joshua Johnson, San Diego

SI.com doesn’t like his delivery and generally doesn’t have a lot of good things to say about him, but I think he could be the steal of this class.  He looked phenomenal on video, and he was hitting some long throws, so his arm strength can’t be as bad as they make it out to be.  And of course I like the fact that he threw 1 interception his senior year.  He was hitting his receivers in stride, and I think he’ll be very effective in a West Coast Offense.

Drafted by: Washington Redskins, late 6^th round.  Why not give him to my team?  He’ll back up Campbell and Collins while he learns the offense, and eventually be a great insurance policy for Campbell.  He should fit new coach Jim Zorn’s style nicely.

12) Colt Brennan, Hawaii

Wow, SI really hates this guy, don’t they?  How can a guy rack up those stats and be the 12^th best passer in this draft?  I’ll admit, he didn’t look great on video; always going to the first read, hitting wide open guys… but still.  The guy’s thrown a lot of footballs and won a lot of games.  I have to think someone needing a serviceable backup will take a chance on him sooner than they’re predicting.

Drafted by: New York Jets, early 5^th round.  Not a high enough pick to truly threaten Kellen Clemens, but he’ll be in the lineup to compete next year if Clemens flops.  It’s a nice fit.