FanNation

The perfect draft strategy.

I've heard all the draft theories there are.  The two stud RB theory.  The RB-WR theory.  The "draft whoever falls" theory.  Just about every fantasy football player has their preferred plan of battle heading into draft day.

And most of them flat out stink.

I have a secret.  The most fantastic draft strategy ever devised.  Want to know what it is???

Here we are:

Don't draft players who suck and pay attention to your scoring system.

Ta-Da!!!  That's all there is to it.  Just continually avoid hype, potential, off-season fluff pieces, and you'll be set.  It really is this simple.  Let me give some examples.

First, the most popular RB-RB draft strategy.  This makes some sense because standard fantasy leagues are set up in a screwy way that makes running backs far more valuable than they are in real life.  It's really simple math.

12 teams starting 2 RB's means 24 RB's starting every week.

Team Fantasy Preview: St. Louis Rams

Coaching Changes:

Offensive Coordinator Greg Olson was made the scapegoat for the horrific 2007 season.  Al Saunders was hired after the Redskins cleaned out their coaching staff.  Saunders ran the Chiefs offense under **** Vermeil was an assistant head coach in St. Louis when they won the Super Bowl with the Greatest Show on Turf.  The changes in the style of offense won't be too drastic.

O-Line:

If anyone doubts the importance of the Offensive Line in fantasy football, look no further than the 2007 St. Louis Rams.  Injuries to the Line completely destroyed the front 5, torpedoed team, and the seasons of Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson.  They had 11 different players start on the Line because of injuries.  Only 2 linemen started more than 10 games.  One of them was Alex Barron playing out of position at LT all season, the other was Milford Brown who was playing out of position at LG.  The results weren't pretty.  Bulger and Jackson got creamed and spent much of the season injured, the team only mustered an NFL worst 5 rushing TD's and allowed 48 sacks.

With better health up front, this team could turn around in a hurry.

After going down for the season in the first game of 2007, LT Orlando Pace has been cleared to practice and would make a huge difference on the line.  His presence would allow Alex Barron to play at Right Tackle, and send Brandon Gorin back to the bench.  The Rams won a bidding war with the Titans for the services of LG Jacob Bell.  Bell will start in place of Milford Brown, who had no business starting and is now a backup for Carolina.  At Center, Brett Romberg's play suffered from injuries and now he'll face competition for his job from Richie Incognito who, like every other St. Louis lineman, finished 2007 on IR.  Mark Stetterstrom is in line to start at RG.

Normally, changes on the offensive line are a bad thing from a fantasy perspective.  This case is unique because the line could not possibly be worse than it was in 2007, and very likely will be better.

QB:

Marc Bulger got hurt, looked bad, and played bad.  The line bears most of the blame, so I am willing to give Bulger a mulligan.  However his health problems are becoming a nuisance, and they do knock him down several slots in any rankings.  I don't think Bulger is a guy I'll be targeting because he is still getting drafted fairly high.

RB:

Steven Jackson is holding out and it may get ugly.  Most contract disputes get resolved by the start of the season so I wouldn't worry about it too much.  Jackson had a down year, and missed 4 games with injury, but he was very effective when he returned.  This is still a player who has proven capable of a 2,300 total yard season.  Don't knock him too far for the struggles of line.  I have him as the 5th running back behind Tomlinson, Westbrook, Peterson, and Addai.

WR:

Torry Holt was consistent to a scary degree despite the turmoil around him.

2006: 93 catches, 1188 yards

Team Fantasy Preview: Chicago Bears

O-Line:

The Bears Line was nothing short of a disaster in 2007.  They were the worst run-blockers in the league managing 3.1 yards per carry.  That was worst in the league and borders on historically bad.  Their passing game was somewhat competent (15th in NFL), but they still allowed 43 sacks, which is simply too many.

The Bears are finally trying to get younger on the line after their very seasoned group got their heads kicked in.  John Tait played LT all of 2007 but is shifting to RT replacing Fred Miller who was released after a poor season.  First round pick Chris Williams will take over the LT position.  It is rarely a good thing to have a rookie at LT.  LG Ruben Brown was given his walking papers and his job is up for grabs between Terrence Metcalf, and Josh Beekman.  Center is still manned by perennial Pro Bowler Olin Kreutz.  The RG position belongs to Roberto Garza.

Team Fantasy Preview: Cleveland Browns

O-Line:

LT Joe Thomas is very solid, as is LG Eric Steinbach.  As long as these two are playing you can count on a decent rushing attack and good blind-side protection.  Fraley is a decent Center, but nothing special.  The right side of the line is in a bit of trouble.  Kevin Shaffer took the Right Tackle role from Ryan Tucker last season, but Shaffer has been having trouble with his knee.  Tucker was suspended 4 games for illicit substances, then played at RG.  He been recovering from a broken hip this offseason and his usefulness for the 2008 season is very much in question.  That leaves a battle for RG between Rex Hadnot and Seth McKinney in which, no matter who wins, the Browns lose.

Team Fantasy Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers

O-Line:

In 2007, the Steelers performed fairly well on offense in spite of their offensive line.  The transition from former Offensive Line coach Russ Grimm to Larry Zierlein has not been going well.  The line allowed 47 sacks, and that number would have been quite a bit higher if they had a less mobile QB.  They were a pretty good running team but they had problems in the red zone, only scoring 9 rushing TD's on the season.

LT Marvel Smith missed 4 games with a bad back and played injured much of the year.  He had surgery in the offseason and will perform much better if he can stay healthy.  LG Alan Faneca left for the Jets and Chris Kemoeatu is penciled in to take his place.  Kemoeatu has started 2 games in his career, so the jury is definitely out on whether he'll succeed.  At C Justin Hartwig was signed from Carolina but may not be good enough to replaces Sean Mahan who was nothing short of awful last year.  At RT, Max Starks failed to win the starting job from Willie Colon in 2007 and spent most of the season on the bench.  He was then made the second highest paid Steeler behind Ben Roethlisberger in the offseason.  If anyone can explain that to me I'd appreciate it.  It is unknown if he will win the job this year.

Anyways, this group has been shuffled, and Mahan and Colon seem to be destined to be backups.  As a whole I am not impressed.  There are a lot of questionable players in important roles on this line.  That will likely affect the running game and possibly Ben Roethlisberger's health going forward.

QB:

Roethlisberger dominated in 2007.  For all the pub Derek Anderson is receiving, he was outperformed by a wide margin by Ben in 2007.  Ben had more TD's and less INT's than Peyton Manning last year.  When he's not face-planting into cars he's very good.  The primary concern with Ben is him getting killed by his line.  Ben is a good QB to have, but I wouldn't overpay for him.  In my rankings he's not that far ahead of a handful of other QB's who you can probably get later.  I prefer buy-low candidates, and Ben's price is a bit too high for my taste.

RB:

Willie Parker was run into the ground last year.  When he suffered a fractured fibula in the 15th game of the season he was leading the league in rushing yards, but was also leading the league in carries by a wide margin.  Even missing the last 2 games he finished 3rd in the NFL in carries only 4 behind the league leader.  The Steelers drafted Rashard Mendenhall to help bear the load in 2008.  This is likely to turn into a running back by committee situation.  This is probably good for the team, but slaughters the fantasy value of both players.  Will Mendenhall be the third down back?  The goal line back?  Rotate offensive series? 

No one knows.  And that, my friends is the kiss of death from a fantasy perspective.  You cannot take either of these players as a first or second RB.  Another complication is the addition of Mewelde Moore who is an excellent receiving back.  All of their roles are still to be determined.

WR:

So long as Roethlisberger stays healthy, Santonio Holmes is a solid WR2.  His numbers from 2007 extrapolated to 16 games are:  64 catches, 1159 yards, 10 TD's which is borderline WR1 territory.  Why he is being drafted behind Wes Welker (who will be hard pressed to ever out-produce his 2007 season) or Brandon Marshall (can you say "suspension"?) is a mystery to me.

Hines Ward is a good example of how playing good football doesn't necessarily translate to being a good fantasy football option.  His productivity has steadily dropped every year since 2002. Then he was a 112 catch, 1329 yard, 12 TD player.  Now he is a 70 catch 700 yard 7 TD players.  He played through partial ligament tears in 2007 and is coming off of surgery to repair them.  But I wouldn't count on his production increasing, as history is not kind to players with his mileage.

Second Round pick Limas Sweed should get the slot receiver role, and long term may replace Ward.  But for this year, he's to be avoided, just like 95% of all rookie WR's.

TE:

Pittsburgh never utilized the tight end as much of a receiving option under Bill Cowher.  One year under Mike Tomlin has changed  that.  Heath Miller posted career highs of 47 catches 566 yards and 7 TD's and was a solid TE.  I look for a bump in that production as Miller should be more familiar with the offense.

Defense:

LDE Aaron Smith missed the last 5 games of 2007 with a torn bicep.  He should be healthy for 2008.