After a winter of rest, Boston's David Ortiz should return to terrorizing pitchers again in 2008.

Robert Beck/SI

 By David Sabino, SI.com

SI's resident fantasy guru, David Sabino, takes a preseason look at the fantasy prospects position-by-position and ranks the candidates in four tiers from the superstars to those who should be left at home. Today, first basemen ...

Although you won't find a single five-tool player at first base this year, it's still one of the most important positions for your fantasy teams. Most of the stats here are generated by a small percentage of the participants, making it of the utmost importance for you to secure a big bat early in your draft. By all means, avoid platoons like the plague.

• Most Valuable: Prince Fielder, Brewers
• Most Overrated: Richie Sexson, Mariners
• Most Underrated: Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
• Most likely to breakout: James Loney, Dodgers
• Most likely to earn a starting spot: Ben Broussard, Rangers
• Most improved: Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
• Most likely to flop: Dan Ortmeier, Giants
• Comeback first baseman of the year: Mark Teixeira, Braves
• Best rookie: Daric Barton, A's
• Best $1 Long shot: Ryan Shealy, Royals

Locked at the Top

1. David Ortiz, Red Sox: Forgive his placement as a first baseman but Ortiz will gain eligibility in lots of leagues once interleague play begins and there's not going to be a DH listing. Gone are the knee problems that sapped his power last summer, so his Triple Crown (with 45 to 55 home runs) potential should return. With Manny Ramirez dedicating himself to fitness in the offseason and Ortiz all patched up, Boston's big bats could do their best Ruth and Gehrig impersonations. The Tigers lineup is better from top to bottom, but nobody has a better one-two punch as the AL's most feared twosome.

2. Albert Pujols, Cardinals: Everybody down on Pujols this year should remember when nobody had Alex Rodriguez, coming off an "off" year, at the top of their rankings in '07. While his balky elbow and perceptions of a weaker lineup around him are concerns, Pujols is the best hitting first baseman in the NL. Want proof? Last season Pujols led all players at the position in hits and average while finishing in the top five in slugging, home runs, OBP and runs while striking out a mere 58 times. As to his support, there's a good chance that Pujols will actually get more assistance in a lineup containing Troy Glaus and Rick Ankiel than he did from the oft-injured Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds. He's probably going to slip to the back end of the first round in your draft and you'll be a fool if you don't take him then.

3. Prince Fielder, Brewers: The Brewers have a long history of power-laden lineups  chock full of big boppers, but never had one of Milwaukee's best ever reached the half-century mark like Fielder did in his second full season. His .618 slugging percentage also set a new standard for the Brew Crew. Keep in mind that he's just 23 until the second week in May and getting better, as is the rest of Milwaukee's young lineup around him. 

4. Ryan Howard, Phillies: A .268 average and major league record 199 strikeouts aren't the kind of numbers you'd expect from a reigning MVP, but that's that how Howard fared in '07. It was obvious that pitchers found the holes in his big swing that caused him to be late bloomer (he's 28), but he still hit 47 home runs and drove in 137 runs despite missing Chase Utley getting on base in front of him for a month. He's ranked No. 1 among first sackers quite a bit this season, but as a three category player, I'd look more toward someone who helps across the board more.  

5. Lance Berkman, Astros: There are going to be lots of runs scored this season in Astros games. That's bad news for the pitching staff, but great news for those of you who are looking from RBIs out of Berkman. The last of the killer B's (CF Michael Bourn has to earn the distinction), he'll get lots of  opportunities to drive in runs.

6. Carlos Pena, Rays: Think the Red Sox or Yankees regret not holding onto fantasy baseball's biggest surprise of '07? Not only did he hit 46 home runs and drive in 121 runs last year, he signed a three-year, $24 million contract to be the cornerstone of the Rays lineup and gets to hammer his old employers a total of 38 times for the next three years. And if you think the big productivity was a fluke, remember that he hit 27 dingers for the Tigers in '04, the last time he was given an everyday chance.

7. Mark Teixeira, Braves: You can go home again. The Georgia native bounced back from an off year in Texas (13 home runs in four months), by clubbing 17 home runs with a major league leading 56 RBIs following his deadline deal to the Braves.

8. Travis Hafner, Indians: Like Ortiz, Hafner is a first baseman in the draft by name only. His average and home run totals suffered badly last year compared to his MVP-caliber seasons the Indians had grown to expect. His unusually poor  production in the clutch (and the postseason), was a big reason why he experienced four-year lows nearly across the board. Look for a bounce back.

9. Derrek Lee, Cubs: Now two full years removed from a devastating multiple fractured wrist, look for Lee to bounce back in the power categories after dropping to 22 home runs and 82 RBIs, his worst full season output since '01. He's always a threat to challenge a .300 average and his stolen base attempts should return to the mid teens again with his worries of injuries behind him.

The Next Best

1. Justin Morneau, Twins      
2. Carlos Guillen, Tigers
3. Paul Konerko, White Sox
4. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
5. James Loney, Dodgers
6. Jim Thome, White Sox
7. Carlos Delgado, Mets
8. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
9. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks

After being tied for third in home runs entering the All Star break with 24, Morneau came crashing down to earth with just seven homers in his final 268 at bats. The Twins are in full rebuilding mode, making him a pick you might want to let someone else make this season ... Going back to his days in Seattle, Guillen has always been underrated. Now at first base, he'll be overlooked even more ... The additions of Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher should help Konerko, Thome & Co. fix the AL's most anemic offense ... What would he do playing in Cincinnati? Over the last two seasons A. Gonzalez ranks in the top four among NL first basemen in average, home runs, RBIs, runs, hits and extra base hits ... First base at Chavez Ravine is Loney's to prowl all year, his first full season. Widely regarded as one of the minors' brightest young hitters and coming off a .332 batting average, 15 home-run season as a part timer, he's a prime candidate for a breakout season ... Delgado suffered through his lowest home run output since becoming a regular major leaguer but is only 34 and shouldn't be given up on ... As young regulars without much competition for playing time LaRoche and Jackson are great value picks whose production will outperform their prices.

From the Risks to the Reaches

1. Daric Barton, A's
2. Todd Helton, Rockies
3. Jason Giambi, Yankees
4. Dmitri Young, Nationals
5. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
6. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
7. Ryan Garko, Indians
8. Richie Sexson, Mariners
9. Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays
10. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
11. Joey Votto, Reds
12. Casey Kotchman, Angels
13. Ben Broussard, Rangers
14. Ryan Shealy, Royals
15. Nick Johnson, Nationals
16. Ross Gload, Royals
17. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
18. Scott Hatteberg, Reds
19. Kevin Millar, Orioles
20. Matt Stairs, Blue Jays
21. Dan Ortmeier, Giants

Barton, a former catcher, reached base via walk or hit in all 18 games he played for the A's during his September callup, including four home runs in just 72 at bats. He'll be an integral part of A's young attack and has tremendous value in keeper leagues ...With Hideki Matsui scheduled to be the everyday DH, Giambi will be in a semi-strict platoon at first base with either Betemit or Duncan, opening himself up to more injuries ... Young was the NL Comeback Player of the Year last season, and while his playing time at first is threatened by another comeback player, Nick Johnson, he'll move to left field to keep his bat in a lineup that sorely needs productivity or even be traded for some help elsewhere. In most hypothetical scenarios, his numbers won't sag ... As stopgaps go, you can do a lot worse than Youkilis, who does an excellent job of getting on base for Ortiz and Ramirez ... A former catching star, Garko took over as the Tribe's starter at first last year and kept his average above .300 for most of it. Look for another step forward ... Kotchman might be the No. 1 pick at the position in an all fielding league. As it is, his body of fantasy work won't ever sound much different than Doug Mientkiewicz's greatest hits ... Keppinger came from nowhere to be one of the NL's best hitters in the second half. He'd be a prefect utility player with lots of eligibility and could get 350 to 400 at bats even without a major injury opening up a spot for him. In the meantime he'll help keep first warm with Scott Hatteberg, waiting for Joey Votto to take over for good sometime during the summer ... Ortmeier is the first of what figures to be a host of candidates tried in San Francisco.  His value should be minimal.

Don't Even Think About

1. Tony Clark, Padres
2. Sean Casey, Red Sox
3. Wilson Betemit, Yankees
4. Dan Johnson, A's
5. Daryle Ward, Cubs
6. Shelley Duncan, Yankees
7. Kendry Morales, Angels
8. Scott Thorman, Braves
9. Garrett Jones, Twins
10. Doug Mientkiewicz, Pirates
11. Robb Quinlan, Angels

SI.com's 2008 Fantasy Preview:

• Avoiding holes key at catcher