Jorge Posada's shoulder injury has placed him on the 15-day disabled list; Yankees are awaiting an answer.

AP

By Will Carroll, Baseball Prospectus, Special to SI.com 

Phil Hughes, SP, Yankees (60 DXL/$2.31m)

At this time yesterday, there was a lot of doubt as to the validity of Phil Hughes' injury. I'm hardly the only one that thought it, and the odd timing -- he's fine, then suddenly he's not -- led many to wonder. The problem is, this is my area and I'm supposed to know. Hughes wasn't faking anything and the Yankees weren't playing a roster shell game; he's got a stress fracture of his ninth rib on his right (pitching) side.

Wonder how something like this gets missed? Check out this MRI and see if you see it. Yeah. Here's an X-ray, which is usually clearer. While this is of the fifth rib, not the ninth, you can see that even something easy like a traumatic fracture isn't clear. Hughes' injury was a stress fracture, a small fracture that results from the strains of activity,  rather than an incident. It's insidious and very painful. Hughes is likely to miss at least two months when you factor in recovery time and rehab. The pain that he played through would explain his poor start, but he'll have to come back and pitch well for it to be that simple. So, Mr. Hughes, my apologies, and best wishes in your recovery.

Jorge Posada, C, Yankees (30 DXL/$2.64m)

Now that the initial panic over Posada's shoulder is subsiding, we can focus on the facts. According to the Yankees and Dr. James Andrews, Posada has a strained rotator cuff, but they've sent the images to Dr. Tim Kremchek and Dr. David Altcheck to get as many opinions as possible. This suggests that they're looking for a definitive answer.

It also raises the question about whether or not there's a labrum tear. Even with images, those are extremely tough to diagnose without opening up the shoulder. People I spoke to who are familiar with the injury seemed to discount the labrum theory. "He didn't show any problems hitting," one doctor said, "and I'd expect to have seen something there."

While we're still at least a few days from the Yankees getting all their opinions and then working with Posada on a plan for his return, I don't see any information thus far that changes the expectations for his recovery. A month of rest and rehab should have him back at least to a hitting capacity, though getting back behind the plate is a far different problem.

Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees (15 DXL/$2.34m)

A-Rod has a tendency to do things bigger than anybody else, perhaps a bit too big at times. He's done it again, trumping Derek Jeter's quad strain with a bigger strain of his own. Imaging shows that Rodriguez is dealing with a Grade 2 strain, in part because he reinjured it since returning to the lineup and made it worse. It's definitely a strike against the team medical staff that he was back out there and put at risk, but sources tell me that Rodriguez bears most of the blame, insisting that he was fine and that the leg wasn't sore. He'll head to the DL and will likely miss at least the minimum 15 days. Posada's injury means the DH slot won't be there for A-Rod, so he'll need to be near full-go when he returns. For those counting, that's three Yankees injuries for $7.3 million in Injury Cost and no small change in real dollars lost.

Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies (60 DXL/$5.42m)

We all know that Tulowitzki idolizes Jeter, but getting the same injury as his hero might be taking it a bit too far. Worse, he's done it better (or is it worse?) than his hero with a Grade III strain at the muscle-tendon junction that will put him out until around the All-Star break.

The time off may allow Tulowitzki a bit of a mental break, which could end up being a positive, assuming that he can dial it back a bit in the interim. One criticism that I'm hearing from scouts is that Tulo's "one speed" is starting to wear on him and his teammates. Injury Cost was made for this kind of situation. Tulowitzki's value lost is closer to the reality of the situation than the $250,000 they'll lose.

Yovani Gallardo, SP, Brewers (0 DXL/0)

It looked bad. Really bad. When Yovani Gallardo went down in a heap on a bunt play, he grabbed his knee and looked for all the world like it was some devastating injury. A closer look at the tape makes me wonder if it was the right decision to leave him in, but toughness is a quality that this Brewers team is looking for. Gallardo has that and helped keep the game close enough to allow for a comeback. As Gallardo leaped over Reed Johnson, he landed with his right knee hyperextended and rolled over the top of it. The way he grabbed the knee looked like he'd lost lateral stability, but that wasn't the right mechanism. Instead, the mechanism would suggest a PCL strain or meniscus damage. We'll see how Gallardo comes back from this by his throw day, but he looked reasonably stable on the mound. You'll remember that Gallardo had surgery on his knee during spring training -- it was his left knee, which came out of today relatively unscathed. While there's a zero up there on the DXL, do not be surprised to see this change, even if it's just missing a start.

John Smoltz, SP, Braves (30 DXL/$2.53m)

Nothing's changed with John Smoltz since he went on the DL with a shoulder strain -- besides perception. The problem is that with Smoltz's announcement -- first that he was willing to move back to the 'pen, then that he would be at least starting out in the 'pen when he returns from the shoulder problem -- views of this latest injury changed quickly and sharply. However, there's no basis for it. Smoltz's shoulder isn't better served by his being used in relief. In fact, Smoltz had just as many problems while in the 'pen from 2001-04, fatiguing at the end of the season just as he has as a starter.

The real problem is that we're in May and Smoltz is experiencing the same kinds of problems (inflammation, impingement, and pain) that he has at the end of last season. He's made just a handful of starts, and with each, the recovery period has stretched and the shoulder has swelled more to the point where Smoltz's shoulder was swelling during his last start. Asking him to recover from shorter outings might appear to be different enough to allow him to stay more productive, but there's no evidence to support it. A sprinter and a marathon runner do vastly different tasks, but their bodies fatigue the same. Pitching isn't the enemy, fatigue is, and until we get a better understanding of that in both general and specific ways, we'll be talking about this again and again.

Chad Cordero, RP, Nationals (40 DXL/$1.12m)

Here's the classic cascade injury. While compensating for a sore, weak shoulder, Chad Cordero managed to tear one of the largest, strongest, and most resilient muscles in the body, the latissimus dorsi. The muscle does have a "bottleneck," the lateral aspect where it leads up to the shoulder where it's weakest, and sources tell me that this is where Cordero's Grade 2 strain is located. This is a very similar injury to one that sidetracked Ben Sheets and was overcome by Jake Peavy a few seasons back. The tear will cost Cordero at least a month, but more important, the staff and the pitching coach especially will need to watch closely to make sure that another cascade doesn't occur. The kinetic chain is just like any chain: There's always a weak link. The problem is that for some pitchers, the links can shift in weakness. I'm setting the DXL a bit longer than the announced month because I think this will linger and require more time to both heal up and get him strong enough to return to action.

Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Red Sox (5 DXL/$0.28m)

People wondered -- loudly -- why Jacoby Ellsbury came into the season with a red flag in the Red Sox Team Health Report. We got an object lesson as to why this week: Ellsbury's a player whose value is almost completely wrapped up in his speed, and now he has a mild groin strain. Since the Red Sox have options, they've rested him, costing him a couple of games' worth of at-bats. The thing is, Ellsbury's getting the best of this, since most teams don't have the options the Sox do. Most teams would have to play him, hoping that he could stay healthy, and risking further, more serious, and lingering damage. It's the abstract player in that scenario who is even more risky than Ellsbury.

One thing I did hear in the midst of the shrieking and rending of garments when I originally waved the flag was that Ellsbury is a very smart player, savvy enough to make fine adjustments. That's an adjustment that isn't in the system, and if true it would alter things slightly. I honestly have no idea how to calculate that. I know some teams use personality tests, so an intelligence test like the Wunderlich wouldn't surprise me. Regardless, Ellsbury should be back shortly, and the Sox are smart to be conservative and won't let him back until both feel comfortable.

Brett Myers, SP, Phillies (0 DXL/0)

David Murphy (not that one) has the details in the Philly Daily News about how Brett Myers has lost his fastball. While we've already talked a lot this season about velocity, this isn't a dead arm or a game-day situation. It appears something has actually just gone out of Myers' arm. The transition from starter to reliever and back is going to be seen as a culprit, but there's no evidence that it's actually the cause. Instead, it seems that Myers' conditioning might be in question. In Murphy's article, pitching coach Rich Dubee is quoted saying that he wants Myers doing long toss, something the hurler's have avoided. While there's no indication that this is an injury, Myers is either going to have to find his heater quickly or make the shift to finesse pitcher in a hurry. Some might just call this karma. Even with Brad Lidge in place, I wonder if the Phillies might consider moving Myers back to the bullpen to see if he can find his fastball in shorter stints. The talk about Smoltz's shift might make this an easier move for Charlie Manuel.

Johnny Cueto, SP, Reds (0 DXL/0)

A couple of weeks ago, after Cueto's second dominant start, I noticed something. With the assistance of Eric Seidman, the PitchFX data appears to be telling us something, but I was only confident enough to hint. Later in that start, I noticed that Cueto's release point appeared to stay very consistent, which played into a pet theory of mine: We know now, after years of research, that getting a pitcher's proprioception back is the hardest part of a Tommy John rehab. The pitcher loses some of the ability to note where his hand/arm is in space, leading to the "disconnected" sense that many of them struggle with, or did before changes to the rehab protocols. Now that we have accurate release point data, it will be interesting to see if my theory that we see early proprioceptive deficits -- situations where we see wildness from a consistent release point -- being predictive of early-stage injury. It's just a theory, mind you, but it does fit as an explanation for Cueto's more recent struggles. The Reds see something, too, and are giving him some extra rest and time to work on what they're calling "a mechanical issue."

Quick Cuts

B.J. Upton has a scary-looking shoulder injury, with observers invoking everything from Dave Dravecky to Richie Sexson. The early diagnosis is a shoulder strain, though it looked on replay like a dislocation. He had a similar injury in 2006 and missed five games, so that's the best guideline ... Jimmy Rollins is still having trouble with the ankle. However, it's not lateral motion as you'd think with an ankle injury. It's when he plants and cuts. I'm honestly not sure if that's better or worse for a SS ... A lot of you asked why there was no Injury Cost in last week's column. I wish I had a better excuse than "I forgot," but I don't ... Paul Lo Duca will be activated from the DL on Friday ... J.D. Drew will miss a couple more games after a mild strain of his quad. It's a precaution more than a serious injury ... Alfonso Soriano is back in the lineup and batting leadoff for the Cubs. He is under orders not to stress the leg too much ... Jason Schmidt is going to air it out in a bullpen on Friday. If he does well, he'll head out on a rehab assignment. If not -- well, let's not think about that ... Joel Zumaya has begun throwing off a mound. There's hopes he could be back in late June.