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Heck, if you are even close to 60% you are a legend in my book..especially in the NoFrigginLogic league (NFL). I think college is a bit easier if you follow things closely. I plan on doing a bit of this for real on a regular basis after I retire.

I'm real busy at work today but I'll get back to this thread and hope it stays around for a while.

QUOTE(#1):

Originally posted 02:04 PM ET  10.21 by josephplumber

Heck, if you are even close to 60% you are a legend in my book..especially in the NoFrigginLogic league (NFL). I think college is a bit easier if you follow things closely. I plan on doing a bit of this for real on a regular basis after I retire. I'm real busy at work today but I'll get back to this thread and hope it stays around for a while.

I definitely thing CFB offers more to choose from. Being an expert on lesser known conference teams means you can probably beat Vegas consistently. Even Vegas can't be experts on ALL of the games. The trick is finding the ones that are just a bit off.

QUOTE(#2):

Originally posted 02:12 PM ET  10.21 by PSUinHolidaySpirit

I definitely thing CFB offers more to choose from. Being an expert on lesser known conference teams means you can probably beat Vegas consistently. Even Vegas can't be experts on ALL of the games. The trick is finding the ones that are just a bit off.

True. Really hard to find an advantage in the NFL

But no matter how much you know or think you know.....anthing near 60% is great. The college lines move a bit more throughout the week so trying to decide when to put your units in action is difficult. That's something I'm still studying. Now, back to work.

I'll get you warmed up with a softball (I think).

Florida -23 at Miss St.

OK
I like
Fresno St. (-24) at the winless N.M. Lobo's

Miss St. (+24) at home against Swampy's golden boy

Louisville (+18) at Cinn. without Pike at QB

LSU (-10 1/2) at home against Auburn (Tigers coming off a loss to Kentucky at home, this one seems to good to be true, which usually means be afraid, be very afraid. Sure things almost never pan out.)

I also worry about Fresno State, they are traveling more miles than any team this year, with the possible exception of Hawaii.

QUOTE(#5):

Originally posted 02:37 PM ET  10.21 by Hammered_everynight

OKI like Fresno St. (-24) at the winless N.M. Lobo's Miss St. (+24) at home against Swampy's golden boyLouisville (+18) at Cinn. without Pike at QBLSU (-10 1/2) at home against Auburn (Tigers coming off a loss to Kentucky at home, this one seems to good to be true, which usually means be afraid, be very afraid. Sure things almost never pan out.)I also worry about Fresno State, they are traveling more miles than any team this year, with the possible exception of Hawaii.

Hammered... Fresno is playing NMSU, not UNM.

QUOTE(#6):

Originally posted 02:43 PM ET  10.21 by PSUinHolidaySpirit

Hammered... Fresno is playing NMSU, not UNM.

Is Hammered hammered?

QUOTE(#4):

Originally posted 02:31 PM ET  10.21 by osumountie

I'll get you warmed up with a softball (I think). Florida -23 at Miss St.

Let's start with the softball...23 or 24 points.. I'm not nitpicking.

Here's UF's Margin of Victory against SEC foes.
UT - 10
Kentucky - 34
LSU - 10
Arkansas - 3

Outside of the Florida-Kentucky game, UK has played remarkably well and gotten better each week. I'm somewhat inclined to view that as an outlier.

Mississippi State lost by 25 at Auburn, 4 to LSU, and 11 to Ga Tech, and 7 to Houston.

Miss State's offense offers no surprises. Anthony Dixon averages 20+ carried per game and 110+ yards per game. MSU will run, run, run and eat chunks of the clock.

The Gators miss that explosiveness of Percy Harvin and Urban Meyer likes to call a smart game plan in games he expects to win.

Mississippi State + 23/24 Florida won't make this a statement game and wins comfortably by about 17 points.

QUOTE(#4):

Originally posted 02:31 PM ET  10.21 by osumountie

I'll get you warmed up with a softball (I think). Florida -23 at Miss St.

This also triggered a memeory on something I read earlier this week.

from Pete Fiutak at collegefootballnews.com:

"In 2004 I uncovered a bizarre trend called the double digit home dog, or the D.D.H.D. Columnists from a certain self-proclaimed "worldwide leader" used it in several articles and never provided the proper credit, and I was being carried on the shoulders of the "investing" community, like Ralphie after turning in his theme, after making a lot of people a lot of money (and not getting so much as a basket of mini-muffins as a thank you). The trend didn???t work the following year, or for the last few seasons, but all of a sudden, the D.D.H.D. has come back roaring.

Here's the concept. Because of the malaise that sets in among the top teams in the middle of the conference season, with bigger games ahead and an apparent layup coming against a bad team, a home team that's a double-digit underdog almost always defies logic and covers the spread. In 2004, the final tally was a jaw-dropping 51-21 against the spread, or an unheard of 71%.

Last week, the results were shocking ...

- Purdue +13 over Ohio State (Purdue 26-18)
- Toledo +11 over Northern Illinois (Toledo 20-19)
- Utah State +10 over Nevada (Nevada 35-32)
- San Diego State +18 over BYU (BYU 38-28)
- Notre Dame +11 over USC (USC 34-27)

And the one loss, which ironically was Vegas ...
- Utah -15 over UNLV (Utah 35-15)

That means the D.D.H.D went 5-1 against the spread last week. "

QUOTE(#7):

Originally posted 02:57 PM ET  10.21 by MountainGator

Is Hammered hammered?

Lobo's 0-6

Aggies 3-4

Nevermind on that one.

Wouldn't be the first time I screwed up a bet.

QUOTE(#9):

Originally posted 03:06 PM ET  10.21 by PSUinHolidaySpirit

This also triggered a memeory on something I read earlier this week. from Pete Fiutak at collegefootballnews.com:"In 2004 I uncovered a bizarre trend called the double digit home dog, or the D.D.H.D. Columnists from a certain self-proclaimed "worldwide leader" used it in several articles and never provided the proper credit, and I was being carried on the shoulders of the "investing" community, like Ralphie after turning in his theme, after making a lot of people a lot of money (and not getting so much as a basket of mini-muffins as a thank you). The trend didn???t work the following year, or for the last few seasons, but all of a sudden, the D.D.H.D. has come back roaring. Here's the concept. Because of the malaise that sets in among the top teams in the middle of the conference season, with bigger games ahead and an apparent layup coming against a bad team, a home team that's a double-digit underdog almost always defies logic and covers the spread. In 2004, the final tally was a jaw-dropping 51-21 against the spread, or an unheard of 71%.Last week, the results were shocking ...- Purdue +13 over Ohio State (Purdue 26-18) - Toledo +11 over Northern Illinois (Toledo 20-19) - Utah State +10 over Nevada (Nevada 35-32) - San Diego State +18 over BYU (BYU 38-28) - Notre Dame +11 over USC (USC 34-27) And the one loss, which ironically was Vegas ...- Utah -15 over UNLV (Utah 35-15) That means the D.D.H.D went 5-1 against the spread last week. "

The Double Digit Home Dog system works as good as anything else I've found for the NFL as well. For the NFL doesn't even have to be double digits. Tracked it over a number of years and found home dogs of 6 points or more won against the spread over 60% of the time. Savvy gamblers have caught on to this and minimizes the advantage somewhat by bringing down the points.

My theory on why it works for college or pro is that in order to be a large number home dog you have to be a bad team or at least comparatively so. People don't like to bet on bad teams and most casual bettors marginalize the home field advantage built into the point spread. They look at the spread(with home field built into it) and think it isn't enough and bet on the team they consider much better. The bookies have to bump the line up to a higher level than is warranted based on relative team power in order to attract bets.

Of course, it could also be overconfidence by the favored team who suddenly finds themselves in trouble in a hostile environment.

QUOTE(#11):

Originally posted 03:28 PM ET  10.21 by josephplumber

The Double Digit Home Dog system works as good as anything else I've found for the NFL as well. For the NFL doesn't even have to be double digits. Tracked it over a number of years and found home dogs of 6 points or more won against the spread over 60% of the time. Savvy gamblers have caught on to this and minimizes the advantage somewhat by bringing down the points. My theory on why it works for college or pro is that in order to be a large number home dog you have to be a bad team or at least comparatively so. People don't like to bet on bad teams and most casual bettors marginalize the home field advantage built into the point spread. They look at the spread(with home field built into it) and think it isn't enough and bet on the team they consider much better. The bookies have to bump the line up to a higher level than is warranted based on relative team power in order to attract bets. Of course, it could also be overconfidence by the favored team who suddenly finds themselves in trouble in a hostile environment.

Interesting, don't really follow the NFL as much as CFB, but I always thought the home field would be far more important to the 18-22 set than the pros. Learned something new today.

QUOTE(#11):

Originally posted 03:28 PM ET  10.21 by josephplumber

People don't like to bet on bad teams and most casual bettors marginalize the home field advantage built into the point spread. They look at the spread(with home field built into it) and think it isn't enough and bet on the team they consider much better.

Funny... that's exactly what i look for.

QUOTE(#12):

Originally posted 03:35 PM ET  10.21 by Armpit again

Interesting, don't really follow the NFL as much as CFB, but I always thought the home field would be far more important to the 18-22 set than the pros. Learned something new today.

In the pro's it is pretty strictly a 3 point advantage over a neutral field. In other words a 6 point swing between home and away. There are very minor exceptions for things such as west coast teams traveling three time zones east. Probably half a point at most extra.

In college it varies a little bit more but it is still usually the 3 point (6 point swing). Certain venues and certain travel requirements subtract or add a point or point and a half to the base 3.

Very interesting points gentlemen.

One more to consider, a team like Fresno State or UNLV etc. travels on a much smaller budget than say a N.D. or USC. ie the trip may be more grueling for a smaller schools team.

I read what Fresno State went through last year to play at Wisconsin, not pretty. Numerous stops flying on a plane on it's last legs, seating not suitable for 250 plus lb. players.

Does that make a team want to win more or does it wear them out before the game even starts?

QUOTE(#15):

Originally posted 04:29 PM ET  10.21 by Hammered_everynight

Very interesting points gentlemen.One more to consider, a team like Fresno State or UNLV etc. travels on a much smaller budget than say a N.D. or USC. ie the trip may be more grueling for a smaller schools team.I read what Fresno State went through last year to play at Wisconsin, not pretty. Numerous stops flying on a plane on it's last legs, seating not suitable for 250 plus lb. players.Does that make a team want to win more or does it wear them out before the game even starts?

However, I don't see the relatively short flight to El Paso and the 1 hr drive to Las Cruces as taxing this week. :)

Slightly more difficult for you PSU

OSU -17 at home vs. Minnesota

A whole lot more difficult.......

Purdue -11 at home vs. Illinois

Damn near impossible.......

Penn St. laying 4 at Michigan

QUOTE(#11):

Originally posted 03:28 PM ET  10.21 by josephplumber

The Double Digit Home Dog system works as good as anything else I've found for the NFL as well. For the NFL doesn't even have to be double digits. Tracked it over a number of years and found home dogs of 6 points or more won against the spread over 60% of the time. Savvy gamblers have caught on to this and minimizes the advantage somewhat by bringing down the points. My theory on why it works for college or pro is that in order to be a large number home dog you have to be a bad team or at least comparatively so. People don't like to bet on bad teams and most casual bettors marginalize the home field advantage built into the point spread. They look at the spread(with home field built into it) and think it isn't enough and bet on the team they consider much better. The bookies have to bump the line up to a higher level than is warranted based on relative team power in order to attract bets. Of course, it could also be overconfidence by the favored team who suddenly finds themselves in trouble in a hostile environment.

The DDHD theory for the NFL this weekend would be nuts.
It does warrant further investigation.

Rams (+12) facing Peyton
Buccs (+14) facing Tom
Ouch

I am taking the Miss St. Bulldogs and the points and that fits your DDHD perfect.

Of course my mind can be changed between now and Saturday.
I just heard 6 key players on the Cleveland Browns are down with the flu.