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NCAAF > General NCAAF > How long will the BigXII's 10 team experiment last?

Los alamos , NM

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August 13, 2010, 10:38 AM

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I'm interested to know how long other fans think the 10 team configuration (minus Colorado and Nebraska) of the BigXII will actually last ...

I just don't see this a good long term plan for the BigXII. When the next round of BCS negotiations start in earnest there will be 3 really powerful and smart guys there representing 12 team leagues - from the BigTen, the SEC, and the PAC12. Throw in the ACC commish as well, who also has a 12 team, but I doubt has anywhere near the power and control as the Big Three are going to have. Silve and Delaney are really smart, and are going to find some way to make sure that the new BCS contract THEIR conferences as much as possible, and Scott is is going to be right there with them. Any vote is likely to be a 4-2 kind of thing in favor of the 12 team conferences.

Perhaps you have a rule that says At-Large teams can only be chosen from Championship game losers OR non-AQ champions? That would probably pass 4-2. What about a change in the formula that gives extra bonus points to winners of conference championship games? That would also pass 4-2. Think of any number of rule changes that would help Silve and Delaney's conferences. Then think about Beebe in that room and what he could do ... nothing!!!! With only the BigEast as an ally, the BigXII will be up a creek in comparison to the true powers with 12 teams.

So, I just don't think I see the BigXII's 10 team experiment lasting very long. Perhaps actually NEVER really happening. I think the BigXII's power players (Texas, Oklahoma, perhaps TAMU) are really just playing a waiting game to see what the next moves are, and what their options are at that point. I think it all hinges on the BigTen right now. If the BigTen stays at 12, I think the BigXII Powers will rapidly add two teams to get to 12 as well. If the BigTen expands to 16, the PAC12 and the SEC12 will follow suit, poaching teams from the ACC and the BigXII, and the BigXII collapses.

To me, I guess it goes to show how absolutely powerless teams like Kansas and Missouri and Baylor and Iowa State are. The best possible move for them (the forgotten 5, the leftover 5, whatever) would seem to me to be to get at least 2 more teams into the BigXII right now, as fast as possible, so that if or when Texas and Oklahoma and others leave, there is still SOMETHING left of the BigXII. That would be best for the Forgotten Five, but worse for the Powerful Five, and so it is not happening.

Anyway, what is your guess?
1 year of 10 teams and then collapse of the BigXII?
1 year of 10 teams and then expansion of the BigXII?
2 or 3 years of 10 teams and then collapse?
2 or 3 years of 10 teams and then expansion?
4 or 5 years?
6 to 10 years?

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August 13, 2010 11:28 AM ET

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Lots of good thoughts there.

It is going to take 2-3 years for the PAC 10 and Big 10 to settle into their current changes. I think the conferences will be stable for that long.

As long as the Texas revenue issue exists, the league will always be unstable. Right now, the Big East, the MWC, and the Big 12 all have uncertainty. I expect the negotiations will continue and if just one team... just one makes a jump to teh SEC, PAC 10, Big 10 or ACC, all hell will break loose.

So 2-3 years, and the Big 12 will either collapse or steal 2 MWC teams.

I honestly think the Big 10 is done for a while.

Grue

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August 13, 2010 12:08 PM ET

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Big12 = Fox Sports & ABC country.
SEC = ESPN & CBS country.
etc etc.

Fox Sports and ABC are not going to sit back and watch their inventory of games be pilfered without a fight. They have serious vested monetary interests in keeping the Big12 together ... and viable .... and on their networks. This is as much, or more, about TV power as it is about conference power. The Big12's "power" teams moving to "power" conferences and the Big12's "lesser" teams moving to "lesser" conferences is all water cooler BS talk.

The current Big12 format is a temporary arrangement thrown together at the last minute in order to keep the remaining teams together while the conference realignment buzzards were circling. Fox Sports put a "promise to pay (more money)" on the table and Beebe found a quick way to keep the conference together that somewhat fit the parameters of the existing TV contracts. This "promise to pay" is based on the assumption that more money will be available when the TV contracts are re-negotiated. Also this "promise to pay" is not a re-negotiated deal - the existing contracts with ABC & Fox are still in effect.

Therefore ... I think the Big12 will be facing another round of questions, and buzzards circling, when the next TV deal is negotiated. FYI the Fox contract (national cable telecasts and Pay Per View telecasts) expires before the ABC contract (national network telecasts).

Dr. B-f-G

Bubbaville, TX

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August 13, 2010 05:59 PM ET

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QUOTE(#3):

Originally posted 12:08 PM ET 08.13 by Dr. B-f-G

Big12 = Fox Sports & ABC country.SEC = ESPN & CBS country.etc etc.Fox Sports and ABC are not going to sit back and watch their inventory of games be pilfered without a fight. They have serious vested monetary interests in keeping the Big12 together ... and viable .... and on their networks. This is as much, or more, about TV power as it is about conference power. The Big12's "power" teams moving to "power" conferences and the Big12's "lesser" teams moving to "lesser" conferences is all water cooler BS talk.The current Big12 format is a temporary arrangement thrown together at the last minute in order to keep the remaining teams together while the conference realignment buzzards were circling. Fox Sports put a "promise to pay (more money)" on the table and Beebe found a quick way to keep the conference together that somewhat fit the parameters of the existing TV contracts. This "promise to pay" is based on the assumption that more money will be available when the TV contracts are re-negotiated. Also this "promise to pay" is not a re-negotiated deal - the existing contracts with ABC & Fox are still in effect.Therefore ... I think the Big12 will be facing another round of questions, and buzzards circling, when the next TV deal is negotiated. FYI the Fox contract (national cable telecasts and Pay Per View telecasts) expires before the ABC contract (national network telecasts).

Amen!!