NCAAF  > General NCAAF  > My Kill the BCS Wish List for this weekend ...
November 23, 2010, 01:29 PM
1) Auburn beats Alabama, (and wins SEC CCG) to go the BCS NCG (followed by lots and lots of new evidence in the Newton case so that there is lots of question about if Auburn should be on probation)

2) TCU kills UNM by 50+ points

3) Boise State has a close game, but wins, against Nevada

4) Stanford kills Oregon State.

5) Arkansas beats LSU

6) Wisconsin struggles but wins

With all that, the Final BCS rankings look like ....

1) Oregon
2) Auburn
3) TCU
4) Stanford
5) Boise State
6) Wisconsin

WHY?

Because that FORCES the BCS to do lots of things they DON'T WANT TO DO ...

The Rose Bowl is FORCED to take #3 TCU over #4 Stanford, who they really want for their PAC10/BigTen matchup.
Stanford is GUARANTEED a BCS slot, but it can't be at the Rose, so it's probably the Sugar Bowl against SOME 2 loss SEC team.
The Orange Bowl is then forced into taking EITHER #5 Boise State in a rematch against VT which they don't want to do, OR forced to take The BigEast Champ to leave Boise for the Fiesta, OR to take OhioState and have Boise left out completely, which gets the BCS into tons of trouble.

BSC At-large selections are EITHER a BigTen Co-Champ or a two loss SEC team, but NOT BOTH. So one of the two power conferences get left out, which will make them and their powerful fans very unhappy!!


So the BCS Bowls look like:
BCSNCG: Oregon vs Auburn* (*vacated in 2011 after final investigation into Cam Newton)
Rose: Wisc vs TCU
Sugar: 10-2 LSU vs Stanford or Ohio State
Orange: VaTech vs ???? Boise State or Stanford or Ohio State or 8-4 Pitt
Fiesta: Oklahoma State vs 8-4 Pitt or Boise State
November 23, 2010  03:17 PM ET

I don't think Stanford is getting into a BCS game no matter what happens. If Oregon wins out, TCU will be in the Rose Bowl (unless Auburn loses, then they'll be in the NCG) and Boise will be in the Fiesta Bowl. Nobody wants a school that will show up with 15 fans like Stanford. It's not fair, but it's true.

November 23, 2010  06:06 PM ET

I pretty sure that the BCS REQUIRES that everyone in the 1-4 rankings get a BCS bid. That is why Stanford needs to get to the #4 spot. Otherwise, you are right, they will be left out ....

That is part of why I really want it happen. Anything that makes the BCS do stuff they don't want to do is great in my mind .....

November 23, 2010  06:59 PM ET
QUOTE(#2):

I pretty sure that the BCS REQUIRES that everyone in the 1-4 rankings get a BCS bid. That is why Stanford needs to get to the #4 spot. Otherwise, you are right, they will be left out ....That is part of why I really want it happen. Anything that makes the BCS do stuff they don't want to do is great in my mind .....

The #3 and #4 teams don't get an automatic bid unless they're from an AQ conference and there's not an at-large team (non-conference champion) from their conference ranked #1 or #2. This is assuming I decoded the qualifications correctly. That said, under your scenario, Stanford would get an invite to a BCS bowl.

Reading the BCS selection procedures was interesting. There's a provision to allow 3 teams from a conference to play in BCS bowls. For example, it's not at all probable but technically possible for the SEC to have 3 teams play in BCS bowls this year. This could happen if:

- Oregon loses to Arizona and Oregon St.
and
- Boise St. and TCU were to lose this weekend or next.
and
- Auburn beats Bama and then loses to South Carolina.
and
- LSU beats Arkansas.
and
- The final BCS poll has LSU and Auburn ranked #1 and #2.

Auburn and LSU would be in the NCC and South Carolina would play in the Sugar Bowl. Obviously the chance of this happening is near impossible but it's interesting that they planned for such a bizarre possibility. I mean, in this scenario, if South Carolina lost to Clemson and then beat Auburn, they could finish worse then 20th in the BCS and be guaranteed a spot ahead of a #3 or #4 ranked Boise St.

November 24, 2010  01:46 AM ET

Best case scenario for BCS haters-Oregon, AU, WISC, tOSU, and LSU lose this weekend. TCU and BSU win. AU loses to USCe in the SEC CC game and OrSU beat Oregon in the Civil War game.

TCU and BSU play for the "title" and the BCS ceases to exist in its current form in 2011. Craig James has his head explode.

Very unlikely but it would be great.

Comment #6 has been removed
November 24, 2010  02:32 AM ET
QUOTE(#5):

Best case scenario for BCS haters-Oregon, AU, WISC, tOSU, and LSU lose this weekend. TCU and BSU win. AU loses to USCe in the SEC CC game and OrSU beat Oregon in the Civil War game.

You're saying Oregon, AU, WISC, tOSU, and LSU need to finish with 2 losses for a BSU/TCU matchup in the NCG. What about Stanford?

November 24, 2010  07:23 AM ET

Stanford, MSU, and OkSU don't have the voter pull to leapfrog TCU or BSU with one loss. The rest do.

November 24, 2010  07:24 AM ET

But if it helps-those 3 losing would cement TCU and BSU in even further.

November 24, 2010  10:38 AM ET
QUOTE(#5):

Best case scenario for BCS haters-Oregon, AU, WISC, tOSU, and LSU lose this weekend. TCU and BSU win. AU loses to USCe in the SEC CC game and OrSU beat Oregon in the Civil War game.TCU and BSU play for the "title" and the BCS ceases to exist in its current form in 2011. Craig James has his head explode.Very unlikely but it would be great.

I'll go with all of that except Ohio State losing...

:)

November 24, 2010  01:00 PM ET
QUOTE(#10):

I'll go with all of that except Ohio State losing...:)

If all but tOSU lost I would imagine it would be tOSU vs BSU in the big game.

November 24, 2010  01:28 PM ET

And I'm OK with that. :)

November 24, 2010  05:45 PM ET
QUOTE(#1):

I don't think Stanford is getting into a BCS game no matter what happens. If Oregon wins out, TCU will be in the Rose Bowl (unless Auburn loses, then they'll be in the NCG) and Boise will be in the Fiesta Bowl. Nobody wants a school that will show up with 15 fans like Stanford. It's not fair, but it's true.

If Auburn or Boise lose, it's almost guranteed Stanford gets in.

I don't see how you could take a 2 loss Alabama over a 1 loss Stanford (not saying Stanford is better, although I think they are, but taking a two loss team over a 1 loss team would be ridiculous).

I think there are scenarios in which Stanford gets a BCS bid, but the way it is right now, they unfortunately wouldn't. And that would be the biggest crime in BCS history, and that is saying A LOT.

November 24, 2010  05:47 PM ET
QUOTE(#3):

The #3 and #4 teams don't get an automatic bid unless they're from an AQ conference and there's not an at-large team (non-conference champion) from their conference ranked #1 or #2. This is assuming I decoded the qualifications correctly. That said, under your scenario, Stanford would get an invite to a BCS bowl.Reading the BCS selection procedures was interesting. There's a provision to allow 3 teams from a conference to play in BCS bowls. For example, it's not at all probable but technically possible for the SEC to have 3 teams play in BCS bowls this year. This could happen if:- Oregon loses to Arizona and Oregon St.and- Boise St. and TCU were to lose this weekend or next.and- Auburn beats Bama and then loses to South Carolina.and- LSU beats Arkansas.and- The final BCS poll has LSU and Auburn ranked #1 and #2.Auburn and LSU would be in the NCC and South Carolina would play in the Sugar Bowl. Obviously the chance of this happening is near impossible but it's interesting that they planned for such a bizarre possibility. I mean, in this scenario, if South Carolina lost to Clemson and then beat Auburn, they could finish worse then 20th in the BCS and be guaranteed a spot ahead of a #3 or #4 ranked Boise St.

False, Stanford would be #2. No way Auburn can maintain a rank ahead of Stanford if they lose that late in the season.

November 24, 2010  06:26 PM ET
QUOTE(#14):

False, Stanford would be #2. No way Auburn can maintain a rank ahead of Stanford if they lose that late in the season.

That may be but I was simply setting up a scenario where 3 teams from a conference would get BCS bids. Just for arguments sake.

That said, this year a one loss Auburn team would be the highest ranked one loss team in the BCS. Stanford's having a great year but Auburn and LSU have played the toughest schedules and the computers love them. Even if the humans put Stanford ahead of either of them (which they won't - see LSU in current polls), the computers would seal the deal. Heck, Brad Edwards even thinks there's a chance a one loss Auburn could finish ahead of an undefeated TCU or Boise in the BCS rankings. I don't agree but it's mathematically possible.

November 24, 2010  08:14 PM ET
QUOTE(#15):

That may be but I was simply setting up a scenario where 3 teams from a conference would get BCS bids. Just for arguments sake.That said, this year a one loss Auburn team would be the highest ranked one loss team in the BCS. Stanford's having a great year but Auburn and LSU have played the toughest schedules and the computers love them. Even if the humans put Stanford ahead of either of them (which they won't - see LSU in current polls), the computers would seal the deal. Heck, Brad Edwards even thinks there's a chance a one loss Auburn could finish ahead of an undefeated TCU or Boise in the BCS rankings. I don't agree but it's mathematically possible.

LSU has played a tough schedule. Auburn, to this point, hasn't.

Their 3 toughest games (LSU, Arkansas, South Carolina) have all been at home. In addition to that, through 11 games, they've only played 3 away games.

If they can beat Alabama, in Bama, than we can say they have played, and won out, in a tough schedule. However at this point, Auburn's schedule is no more difficult than Stanford's.

November 24, 2010  10:00 PM ET
QUOTE(#16):

LSU has played a tough schedule. Auburn, to this point, hasn't. Their 3 toughest games (LSU, Arkansas, South Carolina) have all been at home. In addition to that, through 11 games, they've only played 3 away games.If they can beat Alabama, in Bama, than we can say they have played, and won out, in a tough schedule. However at this point, Auburn's schedule is no more difficult than Stanford's.

We're both obviously homers but Auburn's schedule is much tougher than Stanford's.

- Opponent's winning %
Auburn's - 55% (if they win out it will be around 59%)
Stanford's - 49% (if they win out it will be around 49%)

- Record vs. Opponents currently BCS ranked
Auburn's - 4-0 (if they win out it will be 6-0)
Stanford's - 1-1 (if they win out it will be 1-1)

Stanford has had a great year and they're a great team but Auburn's the best team in the best division in college football. The top 5 in the SEC West are better then the top 5 in any other conference. (We could perhaps debate whether the Big 10's top 5 are better but the Pac 10's are not.)

November 24, 2010  10:12 PM ET
QUOTE(#17):

We're both obviously homers but Auburn's schedule is much tougher than Stanford's.- Opponent's winning %Auburn's - 55% (if they win out it will be around 59%)Stanford's - 49% (if they win out it will be around 49%)- Record vs. Opponents currently BCS rankedAuburn's - 4-0 (if they win out it will be 6-0)Stanford's - 1-1 (if they win out it will be 1-1)Stanford has had a great year and they're a great team but Auburn's the best team in the best division in college football. The top 5 in the SEC West are better then the top 5 in any other conference. (We could perhaps debate whether the Big 10's top 5 are better but the Pac 10's are not.)

SNAP!!

LOL

November 25, 2010  03:01 AM ET
QUOTE(#17):

We're both obviously homers but Auburn's schedule is much tougher than Stanford's.- Opponent's winning %Auburn's - 55% (if they win out it will be around 59%)Stanford's - 49% (if they win out it will be around 49%)- Record vs. Opponents currently BCS rankedAuburn's - 4-0 (if they win out it will be 6-0)Stanford's - 1-1 (if they win out it will be 1-1)Stanford has had a great year and they're a great team but Auburn's the best team in the best division in college football. The top 5 in the SEC West are better then the top 5 in any other conference. (We could perhaps debate whether the Big 10's top 5 are better but the Pac 10's are not.)

All us homers can come up with data to support one side or the other. For instance, comparing only BCS opponents for your groupings I find the following--
Pac-10 (top 5 teams): 33-12 (.733) with 9 to play
Big Ten (top 5 teams): 29-11 (.725) with 5 to play
SEC-W (top 5 teams): 32-9 (.780) with 6 to play
Throwing out the ticky-tack part of the schedule, the records aren't all that imbalanced.

Looking at the rankings, however, I would have to agree with you that the SEC-W has the toughest competition as a group. But in your hypothetical if Auburn gets through their schedule with one loss, that loss will have been to a team ranked lower than the one that beat Stanford. One could conclude, therefore, that Stanford had the tougher schedule.

I'm not taking sides. My point is that either the rankings show Oregon is the best team and the SEC-W is the best conference so far, or the rankings are not to be trusted at all. No cherry picking.

November 25, 2010  08:07 AM ET
QUOTE(#19):

All us homers can come up with data to support one side or the other. For instance, comparing only BCS opponents for your groupings I find the following--Pac-10 (top 5 teams): 33-12 (.733) with 9 to play Big Ten (top 5 teams): 29-11 (.725) with 5 to play SEC-W (top 5 teams): 32-9 (.780) with 6 to play Throwing out the ticky-tack part of the schedule, the records aren't all that imbalanced. Looking at the rankings, however, I would have to agree with you that the SEC-W has the toughest competition as a group. But in your hypothetical if Auburn gets through their schedule with one loss, that loss will have been to a team ranked lower than the one that beat Stanford. One could conclude, therefore, that Stanford had the tougher schedule. I'm not taking sides. My point is that either the rankings show Oregon is the best team and the SEC-W is the best conference so far, or the rankings are not to be trusted at all. No cherry picking.

Isn't this a "no spin zone?" Good point.

But the last measurement you would look at is what amounts to conference records for comparing conferences. They're always going to be similar. Records only really help when comparing individual teams and then it's really the records of their opponents that you would look at as their records would be pretty similar or there wouldn't be a debate.

Darn. I kept spinning. I couldn't help myself.

 
November 25, 2010  03:35 PM ET
QUOTE:

After all the tie in games are settled it's up to the BCS to match the remaining teams and try to put the most attractive teams opposite each other. Now comes the deciding factor (money) and that determines who plays whom. Established powerhouses from big conferences will always fill stadiums because of their legion of fans that will follow them anywhere they play. I'm sorry but smaller schools don't have that kind of following or ability to fill stadiums. Classic example is this and not just because I'm from Ohio State. If the Buckeyes were to play Boise State or TCU those schools could not accommodate the Buckeye faithful on their home fields. The Buckeyes would bring more travel fans than either of those schools home fans.

True, but hardly an argument for how good any team is vs another team. If a number 3 ranked undefeated TCU or BSU gets left out of a BCS bowl in favor of a 2 loss SEC or B12 team its crap no matter how you slice it (and you could add further insult by simply knowing that the big school fans will use the "who did you play in a bowl game" argument against the smaller school team throughout 2011 as well).

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