NCAAF  > General NCAAF  > Conference bowl projections
December 6, 2010, 10:40 AM
Here is my assessment of likely bowl result outcomes from a conference standpoint. The suggested bowl records do not reflect greatly on the strength or weakness of the conference as a whole but reflects a summation of the individual match ups which can be very favorable or very unfavorable.

SEC - Needs to go 6-4 to maintain their respect status quo. However, any record, good or bad, would be trumped by a win or loss in the BCS championship game since that is the one that most people seem to put most stock in.

PAC 10 - 2-2 would be a good result but 1-3 is very possible with the match ups. Like the SEC, the BCS championship game may trump everything else. PAC 10 is the home of the best team not to be in a bowl game due to on the field results..namely Arizona St.

Big 12 - With some very favorable matchups on the slate, anything less than 5-3 would be a failure.

Big 10 - A number of very contestable games makes this a tough call. A 4-4 record would be pretty good and a 3-5 record disappointing.

ACC- 4-5 is the most likely result. A winning record would salvage some respect.

Big East - Most likely record is 2-4. Anything worse would only deepen the conference shame.

MWC - Most likely record is 3-2. TCU has best opportunity for a conference signature win.

WAC- Some good match ups for the WAC make anything less than 3-1 a disappointment.

CUSA ??? The match ups are not good for this decent non-AQ conference. A 3-3 record would be a big success, but 2-4 much more likely.

MAC - Anything less than 2-2 would be a huge failure. 3-1 is fairly likely. Match ups vs the SunBelt work in their favor.

SB ??? Sitting on the bottom of conference respect level, they get the opportunity to push ahead of the MAC. But the most likely result is 1-2.
December 6, 2010  04:37 PM ET

Agree with most of your numbers. Its certainly hard to see the PAC 10 not getting a big black eye again overall, although Stanford and Oregon will more then make up for other losses if they occur.

Given the transitions that will occur its hard to be a MWC homer this year. BYU, TCU, and Utah are on the way out but they still count for the 2010 bowl standings. The opposite applies for Nevada, BSU, and Fresno. At least SDSU and the AFA will be easy to root for.

December 6, 2010  04:40 PM ET

On the plus side too, if things break right its possible that up to 4 2012 MWC teams (BSU, Nevada, Hawaii, SDSU) and 2 outgoing MWC teams (TCU, Utah) will end up as top 25 teams.... It really is a shame that the teams that are leaving could not stick around.

December 6, 2010  10:36 PM ET

Excellent analysis Jim.

I feel as though the Pac-10 is probably only the favorite in one of their 4 games, that being VT vs Stanford.

Auburn/Oregon is kind of a push. At this point, there is no way to determine who is better, they've both been phenomenal this year. We will have to wait for the game to settle that matter.

Nebraska/UW. I see no way for Washington to win this game. The Cornhuskers manhandled the Huskies in Seattle earlier in the season. Granted Washington was a different team back then, I still don't think they've improved enough since then to even make this close.

Oklahoma St./Arizona. I think Arizona will surprise a lot of people and make this a good game. Ok St. should win, but Arizona has the firepower to pull off the upset. I don't see it happening though.

ANd USC's probation and Arizona State's unfortunate situation make this a thin year for Pac-10 bowl teams. I still believe ASU should've been a bowl team given their body of work this season. I thought a win at Arizona to close out the season would be enough to get them in.

December 6, 2010  10:38 PM ET
QUOTE(#1):

Agree with most of your numbers. Its certainly hard to see the PAC 10 not getting a big black eye again overall, although Stanford and Oregon will more then make up for other losses if they occur.

For the second year in a row you mean, not again.

Let's keep in mind the Pac-10 was 5-0 in bowl games in 2008.

December 6, 2010  11:59 PM ET

They second year in a row would be again it doesn't matter how you try to spin it. If you got kicked in the onions by your girl friend and then for good measure she repeated the action would you ask her why she kicked you in the onions for the second time in a row, or would you aske her why she kicked you in the onions again. I think we know the answer.

Comment #6 has been removed
December 7, 2010  12:49 AM ET
QUOTE(#6):

I think I'd be asking her why she did it in the first place.

I wouldn't say a word.

December 7, 2010  12:49 AM ET
QUOTE(#5):

They second year in a row would be again it doesn't matter how you try to spin it. If you got kicked in the onions by your girl friend and then for good measure she repeated the action would you ask her why she kicked you in the onions for the second time in a row, or would you aske her why she kicked you in the onions again. I think we know the answer.

What Tnerb said

December 7, 2010  01:31 PM ET
QUOTE:

JP, I'm not putting you on the spot here, but can you (or anybody) explain why 8-4 Temple with wins over BCS bowl bound Connecticut and Army didn't get a bowl invite?

Good question. I was wondering the same myself. I though they would be a choice instead of Ohio University.

December 7, 2010  02:56 PM ET
QUOTE:

JP, I'm not putting you on the spot here, but can you (or anybody) explain why 8-4 Temple with wins over BCS bowl bound Connecticut and Army didn't get a bowl invite?

Probably the same reason tOSU is going to the Sugar instead of MSU. Money.

December 7, 2010  05:07 PM ET
QUOTE(#12):

Probably the same reason tOSU is going to the Sugar instead of MSU. Money.

Exactly. The Bowl Cordinators are going to chose the teams they thing will bring the most fans to the seats.

December 7, 2010  05:37 PM ET
QUOTE(#7):

I wouldn't say a word.

Because I'd be too busy throwin all her stuff out on the front lawn!

December 7, 2010  05:47 PM ET
QUOTE:

but can you (or anybody) explain why 8-4 Temple with wins over BCS bowl bound Connecticut and Army didn't get a bowl invite?

Good ?

I'm also still trying to figure out how 5 .. 7-5 teams are playing on New Years Day.

December 7, 2010  06:28 PM ET
QUOTE(#5):

They second year in a row would be again it doesn't matter how you try to spin it. If you got kicked in the onions by your girl friend and then for good measure she repeated the action would you ask her why she kicked you in the onions for the second time in a row, or would you aske her why she kicked you in the onions again. I think we know the answer.

Spin it baby, spin it....

But were those bowl games home or away....that is the important question.... :)

December 7, 2010  06:43 PM ET
QUOTE:

JP, I'm not putting you on the spot here, but can you (or anybody) explain why 8-4 Temple with wins over BCS bowl bound Connecticut and Army didn't get a bowl invite?

Does Temple even have an actual fan base? Didn't they have 30-some straight losing years or something absurd? I know it's the money, but in this case, I don't blame the bowl organizers for shunning a team that really won't sell a ticket.

December 7, 2010  09:28 PM ET
QUOTE(#2):

its possible that up to 4 2012 MWC teams (BSU, Nevada, Hawaii, SDSU) and 2 outgoing MWC teams (TCU, Utah) will end up as top 25 teams

LMFAO! Seriously? Dude, Evel Knievel couldn't have made THAT leap!

December 7, 2010  10:01 PM ET

Some guy on another thread said that SEC needs to go 4-0 to be remain respected. Shouldn't be too difficult as they are in 10 games.... LOL

December 7, 2010  11:59 PM ET

He was talking about the games between Penn St/Florida, Arkansas/OSU, Bama/Sparty, and Michigan/Miss. St.

December 8, 2010  12:23 PM ET
QUOTE(#19):

LMFAO! Seriously? Dude, Evel Knievel couldn't have made THAT leap!

What factual error do you see in there. Assume SDSU beats Navy and a few of the 20-25 ranked teams lose the bowls they play in. All the other teams listed are already top 25 teams as of today. Assume they win the bowls they play in.

Going the other way, its fairly easy to see the ACC having 1 ranked team after the bowls....

 
December 8, 2010  01:29 PM ET
QUOTE(#22):

What factual error do you see in there. Assume SDSU beats Navy and a few of the 20-25 ranked teams lose the bowls they play in. All the other teams listed are already top 25 teams as of today. Assume they win the bowls they play in. Going the other way, its fairly easy to see the ACC having 1 ranked team after the bowls....

The error I see is, and I'll use your own words here...

"Assume they win the bowls they play in."

Florida State WILL be National Champs next year...assuming, of course, that we win every game. Does this make it more clear for you?

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