NFL  > General NFL  > Alex Smith's Future?
January 15, 2013, 10:56 PM
I don't know about everybody else, but this is by far the most compelling story of the offseason for me.

Where will Alex Smith be next season? Let's look at the facts:

- During the last offseason, Smith signed a 3-year, $24 million contract. There are two years left on the deal.
- He was having a pretty darn impressive season before Kaepernick took over. His season stats: 153/218, 1737 yds, 13 TD, 5 INT. That's over 70% completions, and a QB rating of 104.1.
- There are plenty of teams that need a change at quarterback, and this year's QB draft class is pretty weak.

The 49ers could very easily keep Smith for another season, but Kaepernick is their QB of the future. If the 49ers were to part ways with Smith via trade, they could easily get some nice compensation for it! The market value for Smith in the 2014 offseason, assuming he rides the bench, would be significantly lower than if they traded him during this offseason.

Let's look at the options available:

KEEP HIM - Entirely possible, since there are 2 years left on his deal, but like I said, his trade value will diminish significantly if they let him ride the bench for a season.

RELEASE HIM - Why would they do that? No.

TRADE HIM - This is where it gets interesting. There are actually only a handful of teams that need a quarterback badly right now. Luckily for Smith, this year's draft class is unremarkable past Geno Smith. So, who could be big players in the Alex Smith derby? Let's look at the teams that need a quarterback:


Buffalo Bills - New head coach, and we all know that new coaches love new quarterbacks. The problem here is Fitz's contract, but I can see them taking the loss to be rid of Fitzpatrick. As they are an AFC team, the 49ers would be playing it safe. Prognosis: GOOD

New York Jets - Sanchez is terrible, but it looks like Rex Ryan is going to ride Sanchez into unemployment. Prognosis: BAD

Jacksonville Jaguars - Once again, a new coach, but in this case, the incumbents Gabbert and Henne are god-awful. With the 2nd overall pick, they cannot bank on Geno Smith falling to them. Being able to trade for Alex Smith would completely alter the complexion of this team's offseason plans in a good way. The only question is, will they pull the trigger? Also AFC. Prognosis: MAYBE

Kansas City Chiefs - This is going to be interesting. The Chiefs own the first overall pick in the draft, too. They are in the AFC and could easily part ways with Matt Cassel. Andy Reid is the new coach. Will he go with the available veteran or jump in and try to turn Geno Smith into Donovan McNabb? I think that Reid finds his quarterback in the draft. Prognosis: BAD

Philadelphia Eagles - They will have a new head coach, and Michael Vick is probably on his way out of town. I don't see Nick Foles being given the starting job quite yet. The Eagles are loaded enough with talent to stave off "rebuilding mode" and dream of making noise in the playoffs. Prognosis: MAYBE

Arizona Cardinals - No. Not only are they divisional opponents of the 49ers, but they JUST got burned in a big way by the Kevin Kolb trade. If they hoped to land Smith, they would have to overpay to compensate for being in the same division, and I don't see the Cardinals digging themselves into an even deeper hole than the Kolb trade left them. Prognosis: ABSOLUTELY NOT

Therefore, by my line of thinking, if the 49ers part ways with Smith, his next team will most likely be the Bills, Jaguars, or Eagles.



.... Jesus, I typed a lot. Haha. Your thoughts?
January 15, 2013  11:46 PM ET

I expect Smith to be traded as he won't be happy carrying a clipboard.

January 16, 2013  09:45 AM ET

But to where?

January 16, 2013  12:00 PM ET

What will SF want for him? Could he be gotten for a second or third round pick?????

Comment #4 has been removed
January 16, 2013  12:24 PM ET
QUOTE(#4):

maybe the j-e-t-s will take him off s.f.'s book$.......he's way better than sanchize !

Except that the Jets owe Sanchez a ton of money. Way too much for his **** to be stuck to the bench, even though that is where it belongs!

January 16, 2013  03:35 PM ET
QUOTE(#5):

Except that the Jets owe Sanchez a ton of money. Way too much for his **** to be stuck to the bench, even though that is where it belongs!

Bench!? It belongs pumping gas or bagging grocies. Of course, with all the money he's earned so far he probably would never have to do either of those for a living!!!

January 16, 2013  04:00 PM ET
QUOTE(#3):

What will SF want for him? Could he be gotten for a second or third round pick?????

I'm sure he would bring Frisco at least a 3rd round pick.

January 16, 2013  04:20 PM ET
QUOTE(#3):

What will SF want for him? Could he be gotten for a second or third round pick?????

Most people think he is worth at least 2/ 2nd round picks, one in 2013 and 2014. Or maybe someone's first round pick in 2014. A couple important things about Smith you left out are that he is relatively young, although he will be entering his 8th year in the NFL he is only 28 years old. Making him younger than Kansas City's Matt Cassel, or Cleveland Rookie QB Brandon Weeden. He is also a very smart person, scoring very high (40) in the Wonderlic Test. Smith will not be a 49er next year, the 49ers need to get rid of his salary to free up some cap room. So with that said, you're right, Smith is a great value to be traded for and not allowed to fall into Free Agency where he will cost any team interested in him, much more money.

All the QB's eligible for 2013 have dropped in value. Barkley who 365 days ago was projected to be the #1 overall pick may get knocked down to the second round. Jacksonville may use their #2 overall pick to grab a higher valued player at a different position, or trade their pick and move down and still pick up Geno Smith or Barkley and pick up some more draft picks.

January 16, 2013  04:21 PM ET
QUOTE(#7):

I'm sure he would bring Frisco at least a 3rd round pick.

Frisco is a town in Texas.

January 16, 2013  04:30 PM ET
QUOTE(#9):

Frisco is a town in Texas.

Okay, San Francisco. Now are you happy?

January 16, 2013  04:31 PM ET
QUOTE(#2):

But to where?

Kansas City?

January 16, 2013  04:32 PM ET
QUOTE(#8):

Most people think he is worth at least 2/ 2nd round picks, one in 2013 and 2014. Or maybe someone's first round pick in 2014. A couple important things about Smith you left out are that he is relatively young, although he will be entering his 8th year in the NFL he is only 28 years old. Making him younger than Kansas City's Matt Cassel, or Cleveland Rookie QB Brandon Weeden. He is also a very smart person, scoring very high (40) in the Wonderlic Test. Smith will not be a 49er next year, the 49ers need to get rid of his salary to free up some cap room. So with that said, you're right, Smith is a great value to be traded for and not allowed to fall into Free Agency where he will cost any team interested in him, much more money. All the QB's eligible for 2013 have dropped in value. Barkley who 365 days ago was projected to be the #1 overall pick may get knocked down to the second round. Jacksonville may use their #2 overall pick to grab a higher valued player at a different position, or trade their pick and move down and still pick up Geno Smith or Barkley and pick up some more draft picks.

The 49er's will never get two 2nd round picks for Smith and would be lucky to get one 2nd rounder. Smith needs a strong supporting cast to be successful.

January 16, 2013  04:32 PM ET
QUOTE(#4):

maybe the j-e-t-s will take him off s.f.'s book$.......he's way better than sanchize !

Smith is cheaper than Sanchez if you trade for him, Smith scored (40) on the Wonderlic Test that is 12 points higher on the Wonderlic Test than Sanchez. There are currently only 2 players in the NFL that have had higher Wonderlic Scores and they are Firzpatrick (48 ) and Gabbert (42). Smith would make a great teacher for Gabbert who is himself a very young QB and could use a couple of more years on the bench learning and growing stronger.

January 16, 2013  04:33 PM ET

A high Wonderlic score doesn't guarantee success.

January 16, 2013  06:29 PM ET

The real question to me is 'how good will he be in someone else's system' he really did not fare that well before Jim Harbaugh came to town.

Certainly some team will want him, but will he be another Matt Cassell (good in one system but not so great in another, [that is being polite]).

Matt Flynn will be another QB available for the right price.

January 16, 2013  06:34 PM ET
QUOTE(#10):

Okay, San Francisco. Now are you happy?

Always a great way to get under the skin of those Northern Californians.

Frisco is also a vegetable shortening.

January 16, 2013  06:36 PM ET

Zona

Cowboys

Jaguars

Bills

Chiefs

January 16, 2013  06:36 PM ET

Zona

Cowboys

Jaguars

Bills

Chiefs

January 16, 2013  06:51 PM ET
QUOTE(#15):

The real question to me is 'how good will he be in someone else's system' he really did not fare that well before Jim Harbaugh came to town. Certainly some team will want him, but will he be another Matt Cassell (good in one system but not so great in another, [that is being polite]).Matt Flynn will be another QB available for the right price.

Matt Flynn has a greater upside.

 
January 16, 2013  07:35 PM ET
QUOTE(#8):

Most people think he is worth at least 2/ 2nd round picks, one in 2013 and 2014. Or maybe someone's first round pick in 2014. A couple important things about Smith you left out are that he is relatively young, although he will be entering his 8th year in the NFL he is only 28 years old. Making him younger than Kansas City's Matt Cassel, or Cleveland Rookie QB Brandon Weeden. He is also a very smart person, scoring very high (40) in the Wonderlic Test. Smith will not be a 49er next year, the 49ers need to get rid of his salary to free up some cap room. So with that said, you're right, Smith is a great value to be traded for and not allowed to fall into Free Agency where he will cost any team interested in him, much more money. All the QB's eligible for 2013 have dropped in value. Barkley who 365 days ago was projected to be the #1 overall pick may get knocked down to the second round. Jacksonville may use their #2 overall pick to grab a higher valued player at a different position, or trade their pick and move down and still pick up Geno Smith or Barkley and pick up some more draft picks.

Way to much IMO, Didn't Alex Smith explore free agency last year when it was reported the Niners were interested in Manning? He didn't find any takers last year so I would wonder this year.

I could see Arizona or Jacksonville interested but no way do I believe anyone gives up 2-2nd rnd. picks for him. Maybe a 3rd at best considering he's 29 and although had a little success during his time with the Niners he's never really produced to be worth 2-2nd rnd. picks.

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