By Hugh Falk, Pollspeak.com
The SEC is the Taylor Swift of college football -- a media darling, country charm and looks good on TV. SEC fans are quick to tout the strength of their conference top to bottom, and lucrative TV contracts with ESPN and CBS only fuel the praise from the sportscasters they employ. However, when reading non-SEC message boards, fans are starting to look at the SEC like Notre Dame – delusional, overrated, and undeserving of all the praise and media attention they get….more like Britney Spears.
However, the SEC now has the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the country according to the AP and every BCS component except the Coaches' Poll. ('Bama is No. 3 in the Coaches' Poll). That is truly impressive and a major feather in the cap of the SEC. So let's compare that sentiment to one of the few reputable gauges of overall conference strength – Sagarin's conference ratings (no offense to the media who hold the TV contracts).
This week the PAC-10 is rated highest even with SEC teams occupying the top two spots in the individual rankings. The SEC is still a close (and very respectable) second, followed by the ACC, Big East, Big 12 and Big Ten -- in that order. This probably isn't the order that most of the media and fans would expect.
The truth of the matter is that the SEC has been on top a lot lately, but they took it on the chin this weekend with Auburn losing to twice-beaten Arkansas, Mississippi not living up to expectations, and Vanderbilt and Mississippi State both losing to non-BCS schools. So this is a good week for other conferences to point out that they're good too.
According to Sagarin's ratings, the BCS conferences are very close in overall strength and some of the reportedly weaker conferences can be stronger on any given week. However, when it comes to media perception, what seems to matter most is how many top-10 teams a conference has in the polls. In the three human polls we now have:
· SEC = 3 (Florida, Alabama, LSU)
· ACC = 2* (Virginia Tech, Miami*)
· PAC-10 = 1 (USC)
· Big Ten = 1 (Ohio State)
· Big 12 = 1 (Texas)
· Big East = 1 (Cincinnati)
· WAC = 1 (Boise State)
· Mountain West = 1 (TCU)
*AP Only
Computers see things differently because they have their own top-ten teams (i.e. Oregon and Iowa) while Sagarin (for example) sees Texas outside the top 10. More importantly, computers do a better job of looking beyond the conferences' best teams and try to compare every team right down to the Vanderbilts, Dukes, and Iowa States.
So if humans concentrate on the top 10, it makes sense to conclude that the SEC is far and away on top this week with everybody else lumped in tier two. After all, every other conference has just one top-10 team compared to the SEC's three. We don't even care too much about the top 25, or we would see that the Big 12 dominates this week…particularly in the Harris Interactive Poll, which has six Big 12 teams.
Maybe looking at top-ten teams is a valid way to judge a conference. Would the SEC's best beat every team in every other conference? If so, wouldn't that make the SEC the winner in this fictional tournament? Maybe, but don't be fooled by talking heads who use phrases like "top to bottom" conference X is clearly the best. Or team Y would never survive if they played a conference X schedule. If we could judge conferences as a whole (like a computer does), we would realize that the conferences are all a lot closer than we are told….top to bottom.
Notre Dame, again like Britney Spears, is making a comeback. The Fighting Irish are back in all three polls at No. 25 after a particularly impressive bye-week. Of course, the Notre Dame haters say that voters are just fattening them up to make a worthy sacrifice for USC. However, a majority of the BCS computers rank the Irish even higher. So conspiracy theorists can put down their flaming shillelaghs and back away from 30 Rock.
Meanwhile, the coaches have finally put Iowa one spot over Penn State (begrudgingly it seems), but they have relapsed and ranked Oklahoma over BYU again. It just shows that coaches can only concentrate on one head-to-head matchup per week. It's an old coaching axiom to only focus on one game at a time, but this is sad.
In the AP, several teams this week had only one or two voters leave them off their ballot including: BYU, South Carolina, Kansas and Oklahoma State.
LSU and Miami were also listed on 59 of the 60 ballots…the twist is that the same voter left both teams off. Adam Van Brimmer of the Savannah Morning News is the only person to rank neither team. In their place he has Central Michigan and Oregon State.
Navy and Idaho garnered rare votes in the AP this week from Jon Wilner and Scott Wolfe respectively (once again the two most extreme voters of the week). In the case of Idaho, Wolfe is actually getting some support from the other BCS rankings, including top-20 rankings for the Vandals from Anderson/Hester, Colley and Massey rankings. Navy will need a lot more votes, but the last time the Midshipmen were in the top 25 was Jan. 5, 2004 when they were ranked No. 24. That same month Britney Spears' Toxic was also ranked No. 24. Coincidence? OK, yes, completely, but I needed some way to tie this all together. Special thanks to Google.
Genevieve Morton
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Comments (69) Add A Comment
As usual, the Notre Dame hating human polls have them ranked lower than virtually all the objective computer polls, which is pretty much par for the course now, and really since the Ara Parsehghian days. Because the media is so afraid of being accused of having a pro Notre Dame bias, they go completely the opposite way and underrank them consistently vs the computer polls. In the old days, a 4-1 Notre Dame team that lost their only game in the last seconds at Ann Arbor would at least be somewhere around the top 10-12. Now, it doesn't even matter that they beat the only team that beat USC---people criticize them for only winning close and in overtime and give USC a free pass as if they never even lost the game to Washington.
So Irish, lets make them all look like fools and finally beat USC and Petey Carroll. Sick of losing to them 6 of the last 7 years. You were robbed in 2005 and its time to take that one back. And even if you beat USC, the anti ND media will still find some way to keep you out of the top 10----I guarantee it.
Lord of the Manor
Total Comments (95)
Agree on the anti-Notre Dame bias. Why is Penn State ranked so high? They lost at HOME, and not in final seconds, and while ND has not played a tough schedule, it clearly is more difficult than Penn State's. Texas' schedule is similarly weak. Teams that schedule Div. II teams should be penalized.
knute1984
Total Comments (16)
Don't worry about Texas's schedule... They play OU, Missour and Okie Lite over the next 3 weeks... None in Austin. We will see where they rank and the end of this.
Jim Halpert
Lubbock, TX
Total Comments (7)
The computers may be objective, but that does not mean they are not flawed. Notre Dame benefits in the computers from the fact that margin of victory is prohibited. This means that the computers overvalue something that benefits the Irish... LUCK.
The fact of the matter is that a 40 point win DOES tell you something about a team, even if it is against inferior competition. A three point win may or may not tell you something about a team. Why? Because you cannot win by 40 points based on luck, but you can win by 3 points based on luck.
One anecdotal example from the two versions of the Massey computer poll from last week pull back the curtain on this flaw in the computers. When Massey's non-BCS formula (which includes MOV) is included, Texas ranks third. But in the BCS-Massey formula, which prohibits MOV, an undefeated 4-0 Texas ranked #21... BEHIND a #19 Washington at 2-3.
That is simply insane. And Notre Dame, narrow, lucky winners of a handful of games against mediocre competition reap the benefit of this insanity in the computers.
The_Guvnah
Austin , TX
Total Comments (363)
Long story short... There is a bias concerning Notre Dame; a bias in FAVOR of Notre Dame in the computers that aren't allowed to take MOV into account.
The_Guvnah
Austin , TX
Total Comments (363)
Whatever...after Saturday speculation will be over and we can move on. We just need to play the whole 60 minutes...hard.
The Irish
Irishville, CA
Total Comments (1094)
Educate me exactly on how winning close games in Notre Dame's case is only luck. Why is it that only Notre Dame is "lucky" win they win close games, but if a Florida or a USC or an Alabama etc wins close games, its "tenacity" and "character" etc. What a load of crap. Did it ever occur to you that maybe Notre Dame has skill players especially on offense that are making plays? Clausen's stats are out of this world. He is the top rated passer in the nation. When they had both Floyd and Golden Tate at WR, along with their stud TE in Kyle Rudolph, they were virtually unstoppable on offense. That isn't luck dipwad---those are all future NFL players. You anti ND hating nimrods are all the same. Never give ND any credit at all. When they win, its all luck or an easy schedule etc.
Was it luck that Notre Dame lost to Michigan in the last seconds? Was it luck when their best player caught a TD pass against Michigan (that was then somehow disallowed inexplicably) and broke his collarbone at the same time, seriously denting ND's offense? Was it luck that ND had to beat Purdue and Washington with Clausen playing on a gimpy foot (requiring the backup QB to play most of the game vs Purdue) and also have thier best RB out the last few games (Allen)? No, you anti ND whiners never seem to mention that stuff. Oklahoma and USC are praised and lauded for playing with injured QBs and people make excuses for them when they LOST games when their star player was out----yet the same people criticize Notre Dame for WINNING close games when their star players were out. What a bunch of hypocrites and dumb doofus oafs. How long have you been watching college football, 3 weeks?
And don't talk to me about inferior competition. Until the LSU game, who had Florida beaten? Who has Texas beaten? Who has Oklahoma beaten to go with their 2 losses? Who has Penn St beaten? Who has Kansas beaten? WHO?
Notre Dame doesn't play hyphenated school DII cupcakes. ND has beaten 3 BCS conference teams and a highly touted WAC team (Nevada) that a school ranked ahead of ND (Missouri) struggled with----ND waxed them 35-0 yet Missouri somehow is ranked ahead of ND. Who has Missouri beaten? ND beat the team that beat USC, yet USC is ranked as if they never played that game against Washington, and ND is criticized for beating Washington close. Its hilarious.
I would much rather trust unbiased computer rankings instead of subjective human polls, but the computer component has been so watered down now its virtually meaningless. You used to get a bonus for beating a highly ranked team, and now they don't even do that. So teams like Texas schedule as many hyphenated directional schools as possible and still rank high without beating anyone. What a joke.
Hey Texas, why not schedule ND again----you know we'd love to come down there and kick your arses again like we always have throughout history. Come on, what do you get out of beating Texas-El Paso and Louisiana-Lafayette etc? Man up.
Lord of the Manor
Total Comments (95)
You are missing the point. Rankings are supposed to be based on WHAT YOU HAVE DONE TO THIS POINT, not "who you might beat down the road". Texas has played no one except a bunch of hyphenated and directional schools except for Texas Tech, who is down this year anyway. They have done nothing to this point to deserve any higher ranking than Notre Dame other than they have played such a creampuff schedule that they have not lost a last second game at Ann Arbor. Until Florida beat LSU, who have they played? Who has Penn St beaten? Who has Kansas beaten? Who has Oklahoma beaten? They are ranked with TWO losses ahead of ND. Who has Missouri beaten? The Big 12 is so overrated its not even funny.
Lord of the Manor
Total Comments (95)
Reporters are the most bias of all on polls. You need people who don't report and who look at all the facts. Now where do you find that rare bird?
JDarts
Durham, NC
Total Comments (1)
Comedy gold, Lord, just pure comedy gold.
The reality is this: 1) Notre Dame has essentially beaten a bunch of nobodies ("pulling out" a win at what is now a 1-5 Purdue isn't exactly a signature win) and 2) the polls accurately reflect Notre Dame's anemic efforts over the last several years, whether you accept that or not. Having said that, yes, even I believe they should be ranked higher than 25th in the country.
If the SC game was in SC again this year, SC would win by 30. As it is, they'll still win, just because Notre Dame has not played a team of their caliber this year. It's really just that simple.
Fat Charlie did break one streak, though. He FINALLY led ND to a bowl win, something that had not happened since January 1st, 1994. Notre Dame is no longer in the top-tier of college football, whether you can accept that or not.
The good news is the rest of the schedule looks pretty favorable for the Domers, with just one more loss on the horizon (Pittsburgh). I notice you cracked on UF for not having played anyone other that LSU -- if UF and ND played next Saturday, do you REALLY think ND would stand a chance?? UF is a good example of a well-coached team, something that ND is not right now. Yes, I realize that Charlie fell out of the "Patriot" tree, but clearly he did not inherit much coaching ability on the way to the ground.
godofdetailing
Total Comments (225)
Texas hasn't played any DII schools this year. In fact point out the last time Texas did.
Tracy ATX
Austin, TX
Total Comments (6)
LOTM:
My point is not that ND has clearly won on luck in any particular game (although it's certainly arguable).
My point is that teams that clearly have NOT won on luck get short shrift, because margin of victory is PROHIBITED from being taken into account. If a team that exhibits a particular strength is not credited for it, then it benefits other teams... like ND.
All you have to do is look at the following to see what I'm talking about:
Texas 64; UTEP 7 MOV = 57pts
Notre Dame 24; Purdue 21 MOV = 3 pts.
Both UTEP (2-4) and Purdue (1-5) are crappy teams, and yet the computers don't consider Texas' absolute whipping of UTEP to be any more important from a ranking standpoint than Notre Dame's narrow escape.
That's right. Beating a bad team by EIGHT TOUCHDOWNS is considered no different than beating a bad team by ONE FIELD GOAL.
"Who has ______ played?" is only part of the equation in accurately evaluating them... "How has ______ played?" is, or SHOULD BE, another part of the equation.
And please go peddle your ND strength of schedule somewhere else. Q: How many ND opponents this year have winning records vs. .500 or losing records?
A: 1-4. The one team with a winning record that ND has played, ND lost the game. ND has since beaten three teams with .500 or LOSING records by 3, 3 and 7 points. They beat one other losing team by 35 points.
If you want to know why ND doesn't merit anyone's respect YET, then there you have it.
Barely squeaking by against terrible opponents is no way to go through a football season, son.
By comparison...
Q: How many of Texas' opponents this year have winning records vs. .500 or losing records?
A: 3-2. Three of Texas' opponents have winning records, and Texas beat those teams by 39, 31, and 10 points, respectively. Two of Texas' opponents have losing records, and Texas beat those teams by 57 and 28 points, respectively.
So, not only is Texas schedule stronger than ND... but it has beaten every team it has played, including those with winning records. It has also beaten those teams with winning records more convincingly. It has also beaten the teams with losing records more convincingly.
So yes, by all means... continue making the silly comments about "directional" and "hyphenated" schools while you squeak by bottom dwelling non-bowl teams like mighty 1-5 Purdue and 2-3 Washington.
The_Guvnah
Austin , TX
Total Comments (363)
if you think Purdue from a BCS conference is a comparable team to a UTEP, you are smoking crack. You can't compare the records of non BCS cupcakes like UTEP to established top 6 conference programs like Purdue. I am not saying Purdue is anything special, but it was still a win on the road in a rivalry game against a Big 10 school. If you think that is comparable to whipping up on a hyphenated directional cupcake from a non BCS conference, then we are done talking, because you obviously know nothing about college football or its history. You do understand that Notre Dame is Purdue's biggest rival? Do you even understand the history between schools or the rivalries of ND--Mich St, ND--Purdue etc?
Lord of the Manor
Total Comments (95)
The last time Texas played a Div II (FCS) team was in 2006 when they played Sam Houston St.
As far as I can tell, that is the ONLY time in the 12-year tenure of Mack Brown that Texas has played a Div II (FCS) team.
Texas is NOT Florida or Oklahoma in that regard.
If I had my druthers, games against FCS teams would not count as wins for the purpose of calculating BCS standings.
The_Guvnah
Austin , TX
Total Comments (363)
ND, oh you poor delusional idiots. Its gives this nation great gratification to see you colossal morons try plead your weak case. None of your wins comes from teams with winning records, final! Beat somebody who's ranked, or even just somebody with a winning record! Do that at least three weeks in a row, and then complain about not being rated.
Unbelievable.
Dr. Stellmacher
Madison , AL
Total Comments (16)
LOTR:
Of course not. Being a Texas fan, I wouldn't have any concept of rivalries.
*sigh*
ND isn't playing against "history" when it takes the field. It is playing against another team and their coaching staff.
If you think that ND deserves a higher ranking in 2009 because Bob Greise went to Purdue 40 years ago or Drew Brees went to school there 10 years ago, then yes, you're right... we are done.
This is a typical example of ND's ridiculous hubris.
It used to be that ND demanded respect based on their past glory.
Now they're demanding respect based on their OPPONENTS' past glory!!!!!
Typical of ND hubris... but sadder.
The_Guvnah
Austin , TX
Total Comments (363)
And by the way...
Since UTEP has beaten twice as many teams (2) as Purdue (1), including a team ranked in the top 15 -- Houston, (4-1) -- then yes... as a matter of fact I WILL compare UTEP to Purdue.
UTEP is better than Purdue.
End comparison.
The_Guvnah
Austin , TX
Total Comments (363)
Guvnah, the sagarin rank is a combination of 2 computer methods. One W/L and the other margin-of-victory. Now that is enough to undermine everything you've said in this thread, but to pile it on Notre Dame ranks higher in the margin-of-victory method than win-loss.
obe
Beverly Hills , CA
Total Comments (4)
Could not agree with you more!!! This degree of self entitlement is exactly why the rest of the college football nation reacts so vehemently against ND.
Dr. Stellmacher
Madison , AL
Total Comments (16)
Guvnah - the Sagarin computer method mentioned in this article is a combination of two scores - one w/l and the other based on margin-of-victory. What's more, ND ranks higher in the margin-of-victory scoring than pure w/l.
Might I suggest a little more fact-checking next time?
obe
Beverly Hills , CA
Total Comments (4)
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