By Hugh Falk, Pollspeak.com
Two of the more impressive top-10 teams last weekend actually dropped in this week's BCS standings. Boise State and Cincinnati each dropped three places after their dominating performances. Of course, they dominated inferior teams, which is part of the reason they dropped. In the BCS, when things are tight, strength of schedule makes a difference. So schools have to hope that the other teams on their schedule also do well. It's kind of like that old health-class warning: when you sleep with someone…you're sleeping with everyone they've slept with. So choose your partners wisely.
In this case, Boise State slept with Hawaii, who is on a five game losing streak, Tulsa (who just lost to UTEP), Bowling Green (who just lost to Central Michigan), and a winless Miami (Ohio). Cincinnati bedded five-loss Louisville, South Florida (who just lost to Pittsburgh), and again a winless Miami (Ohio). Had Oregon State defeated USC, it would have in turn helped Cincinnati. Strong relationships make a difference in the bedroom and the BCS.
Meanwhile, TCU, USC and Iowa all benefited from the other teams' poor choice of bed-partners. Each jumped up two places. TCU was helped by a solid victory over BYU, but USC and Iowa squeaked out wins and were simply thrust into the spots vacated by the Broncos and the Bearcats. Texas is still in ideal position for a BCS Championship spot, but Iowa looks to be separating from the rest of the pack (barring a loss). If fact, five of the six BCS computers rank Iowa No. 1 this week. So let this be a lesson to athletic directors…always practice safe scheduling.
Speaking of safe scheduling, the Trojans will have a chance to make their case this weekend against No. 10 Oregon, but even with a victory, USC would still need other teams to lose to have a serious shot at the BCS title. Oregon is in the same situation. Again, five of the six BCS computers rank Oregon higher than USC. The human polls favor USC, which is why the Trojans are ranked higher in the BCS. So this weekend's clash between the Trojans and the Ducks is also a clash between the humans and the machines. If the Ducks win, look for a new computer component to be added to the BCS -- Skynet.
Other disagreements between humans and computers this week are Arizona – who are liked by the computers more than the humans (Billingsley is the only computer without the Wildcats in top 25.); Texas – who is liked by the humans more than the computers (Billingsley is the only computer to agree with the polls); and Mississippi – the humans (and Billingsley) are the only ones with the Rebels in the top 25.
A common trend you probably noticed is that the Billingsley Report tends to break ranks with the other computers on a regular basis. That's because it is has a very different methodology. You can read the Billingsley system explanation for details, but I'll paraphrase (very loosely). The Billingsley Report ranks teams more like a human voter (given specific rules) would handle rankings. I'll call it a voter simulation. That's why we'll sometimes see Billingsley siding more closely with the polls than the computers. It weighs losses heavily and even figures in pre-season bias to some extent. It is one of the few systems to offer a preseason poll (the previous year's final poll) and uses it as a starting point for the new season. It even figures in a one-week, head-to-head matchup rule, ensuring that winners are ranked ahead of losers (other things being equal). So the Billingsley Report is kind of like a T-1000 cyborg wrapped in human flesh. If Judgment Day arrives and the machines attack, we may have to send Billingsley back in time to save us.
As for the real humans in the AP, they are mostly disagreeing over Penn State. The Nittany Lions are the most polarizing team this week, ranging from Craig James' No. 7 to Jon Wilner's No. 22.
On the other hand, congratulations to the Houston Cougars who are ranked by every AP voter for the first time this season…and the first time in a long time. The last year the Cougars were ranked was 1991.
I have a quick aside about Houston and the Sagarin Ratings. Sagarin's list to the BCS doesn't include FCS schools. Believe it or not, Richmond is currently No. 25 in Sagarin's BCS ratings (also called ELO_CHESS. Richmond is No. 40 in Sagarin's standard ratings.) So Houston snuck in and took Richmond's place in Sagarin's top 25 for the BCS.
Central Michigan hopes to be the next Houston with nearly half of the AP voters ranking them this week. The Chippewas are on the cusp of their first EVER top 25 ranking, currently standing at No. 27 in the AP and No. 26 in the Coaches' Poll. Of course, to be exactly like Houston, they would have to time travel back to 1991 and become ranked first. While there, they could meet up with the Billingsley-1000 and slip into any movie theater to check out the number one movie that year: Terminator 2: Judgment Day.
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does arnold turn the SI staff on or something?
the real from…
Total Comments (99)
I fell asleep after the first 2 sentences....snore...z...z..z.zz..z.zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Wow!
Total Comments (14)
I thought this was a great read....go Chippewas!
Teenidol
Total Comments (4)
Ummm...so factoring in last year is a good thing? Not to mention, a pre-season poll that has an affect once the season starts. Isn't this the same thing we complain about with the AP and Coaches?
usckurthy
Iowa City , IA
Total Comments (6)
Not really, because the AP and Coaches Polls only use previous year's ranking for the Big Boys. Teams like TCU, Utah, Boise St., et al have to start all over and have damn near zero chance of making it to the "championship" game.
Had TCU stayed in the same place they were at the end of last year they would be #4 behind Florida, Alabama (why were they ranked #6 when they got thrashed by Utah) and Texas.
At least at #4 they would have a realistic chance at playing for the BS title. At #6 with 1 loss USC (what a crock) ahead of them they have no realistic chance.
Sadly, I can see USC losing to Oregon and Oregon jumping ahead of TCU. Hell, they'll probably jump ahead of Boise...further proof that the system sux!
Suicidaire
Total Comments (93)
And I dont wanna hear of you say "the mid majors should play real competition." TCU didnt ask to be banished from the Southwest Conference when they merged with the Big 8. They accepted their fate and made the most of it. They've played anybody and everybody that wasnt afraid to take them on and acquited themselves quite well.
They've gone 66-20 and won at least 10 games 6 times since 2002 (it'll be 7 in 9 years when this one is wrapped). They've won at Arizona, at Oklahoma, at Baylor, at Texas Tech, beat an undefeated Boise St in last year's Poinsetta Bowl, and this year went to Virginia and Clemson and left with wins.
I hope like hell TCU gets to a BS game and lays the wood to one of the football factories (Please be USC!!!) and then maybe the country will recognize. There would be nothing prettier than seeing Jerry Hughes break Matt Barkley in half...
Suicidaire
Total Comments (93)
Why not? Most of the players and all of the coaches are usually the same.
FarawayTiger
Total Comments (276)
USC versus TCU in the fiesta bowl would be awesome! I hate both USC and the Mtn West. They are both so overrated it is ridiculous. I would be so excited to see one of them crash and burn I wouldn't be able to control myself.
CAL-EER
Bryn Mawr , CA
Total Comments (2)
I don't see how Oregon beating a 3-win team is impressive enough for them to jump us.
Georgia Tech…
Rome , GA
Total Comments (3408)
Funny, I believe TCU can take any team in the country. I am not a TCU fan either. They have great coaching, they have more speed on defense than any other team, and they flat out can play regardless of conference affiliation. I don't trust BCS rankings, cause I know that their is a ceiling. TCU or Boise State will not get any further. If Oregon beats USC, then Oregon will pass TCU and Boise. If Iowa falls to Ohio State, either Iowa or stay ahead, or a 2 loss Ohio State will pass them. I know others will call me crazy, but I am much more impressed with TCU than Florida, Alabama, Texas or any other team. It reeks of anit-trust to me.
Fix It
Layton , UT
Total Comments (9)
TCU will own any BCS conference team they face... I know Bama doesnt want anything to do with them...
phatty
Slc, UT
Total Comments (22)
TCU sucked prior to the creation to the Big 8. They've managed to become a very good team in a lesser conference (see also Hawaii, Boise State, Utah and BYU). TCU now has the better strength BECAUSE of Utah and BYU. If it beats Utah, even though Utah is not having a truly remarkable season this year, TCU will benefit from the fact that Utah beat Alabama last year -- even though this year's Utah is not that same team, obviously.
When TCU and Utah (or BYU) rattle off 10 or more win seasons or multiple undefeated seasons year after year, it will regularly be ranked -- thus Boise (which has done this) started the year with a higher ranking. That notwithstanding, TCU could easily pass it into the BCS, both if both win out, really, both should play in a BCS bowl.
Franco
San Francisco, CA
Total Comments (81)
I absolutely disagree that both "should" play in BCS Games. The four BCS bowls have been very generous to let their bowls take small schools with little to no national interest. Games featuring mid-majors generally own draw about half the national audience as those with big names. The Bowls are trying to make a profit, which is exactly all they should try to do. How ridiculous would it be for the Big-12 to sue the humanitarian bowl since they don't get an invite. Or how about the SEC sues the ponsietta bowl. Why doesn't the Pac-10 sue the cotton bowl, its a good spot.
That's why I hate the Mtn. West. Their heads are so far up their own @@@ they can't see strait. Every single bowl game is designed to make a profit by inviting any team they want. And that is exactly as it should be. Everyone gets so caught up because they're called "BCS games" but they are just four more bowl games that have no bearing on anything in the long run.
Only one game matters. The championship. And every single team from every single conference has the same chance of getting there. Place 1st or 2nd in the BCS and your in. It's that simple. For all the crying that Utah did after the Sugar bowl they always fail to recognize one thing. Your own coach had you at number 6 on his final ballott.
CAL-EER
Bryn Mawr , CA
Total Comments (2)
"cal-eer"
you don't know what you're talking about. virginia versus cincy was the lowest rated bcs game earlier this year.
bcs programs enjoy unfair recruiting advantages. kids understand this well. they want the easiest path to play on a big stage in a bcs bowl to show case their talent for NFL scouts. example; without the bcs affiliation cincy, rutgers, uconn, s florida (program since 1996), etc., would be nothing. cincy's first invite to a bcs bowl with 2 loses in a conference that is not even as good as the mwc.
furthermore, bcs conferences have consistently losing programs such as vanderbilt, indiana, duke, etc. however, they still receive that 7 figure check annually because of an unfair affiliation. does that REALLY sound fair to you when non-bcs (screw your mid-majors crap) programs have more tradition, and produce winners every year?
get your facts straight, and be a little more objective in your argument.
sec is overrated like the rest of the bcs conferences. take the top 2-3 best teams from each conference, and basically there's nothing left but mediocrity.
go utes!!! kicked bama's ass, and they still can.
supra
Brentwood , TN
Total Comments (1)
Franco... might want to take a look at TCU's record since 2000. Their 83 wins (excluding 2009 season) include six 10+ win seasons with 11 wins in 3 of the last 4.
TCU has and continues to prove it on the field including beating Boise last year.
AlamoGuy
Total Comments (1)
Call-EER, Utahs coach's final ballot broke ways with what he was obligated to do, which would have been to cast his ballot for Florida as the title winner, instead, he was the lone voter who voted Utah as National Champion, which I respect.
The things Utah, Boise State, and TCU do, can compete with the big boys. This year, I think TCU can beat anybody. Your comment that anyone can get to the title game as long as they get 1 or 2 in BCS rankings regardless of the conference affiliation. That premise is bogus, and has NEVER occurred for a non BCS conference school, so why wouldn't they feel slighted. Read all the columnists at this site, Mandel, Staples, and you can clearly see their is a ceiling for mid-major teams. ONce they hit the point that they are in now, they can go no higher. For instance if USC loses, they stay where they are, because Oregon would pass them.
As far as the money aspect of bowls. Given the economy, and free market system at play, I at least understand bowls wanting to make a profit, and universities want to make money, sponsors want to make money, and that lends to the system we have. My argument is, this is not professional football. The students are forbidden from any gain short of an education. Sure Urban Meyer, and some programs and conferences get a lot of cash, but assuming the programs follow the rules, the student athletes don't. I am sure it is hard to shut down the cash machine, but if college football is about 'SPORT', Teams that go undefeated, such as Utah last year, or what I expect TCU will do this year, they should have every right to contend for a National Title. Since the BCS originated, there has never been a mid-major given any consideration of a title game. It has taken a lot of fighting, lobbying, and complaining to even get 4 teams into non-title BCS games, and the mid majors are 3-1, including Utah's romp of Alabama, and what most people will remember as the most entertaining NCAA game of all time, Boise States upset of Oklahoma. That is what the mid-majors have already offered.
Fix It
Layton , UT
Total Comments (9)
If TCU, Boise State and Utah want more respect, they need to schedule more BCS teams during the regular season. My suggestion is to call your school's AD and tell him/her to go on the road to USC, Penn State, Texas, Florida, Alabama, VT or Ohio State. Once they prove they are contenders during the regular season, the BCS would have no choice but to include them. I don't think it's fair or reasonable to play soft schedule and get a shot at the national championship while other teams beat themselves up week after week. NCAA basketball rewards strenghth schedule so why should't the AP voters.
GPTampa
Tampa , FL
Total Comments (1)
GP Tampa
This year, Boise did have a soft schedule, only one high quality win at Oregon. That is hurting them. Part of the isue is schedules are put together a long time in advance, so when you get a big time team on the schedule, by the time you play, they may have a down year. Last year for instance Utah did play Michigan, and Oregon State. BYU took on Oklahoma and Florida State this year, TCU took on Virgina and Clemson. Perhaps the year they get them, the teams they scheduled didn't fit the bill as a top 10 team, but they may have been top 10 when the scheudle was created. If you look at the schedule, these emerging Mid-Major teams are getting some quality BCS conference teams on their schedules and holding their own, winning more than they are losing.
Another disparity I have observed is how many big time BCS schools have unfair scheduling advantages. Home Field is a big deal. Florida gets 7 home games, 4 roadies, and a neutral. Penn State, Michigan, Oklahoma State get 8 homes 4 roads. I understand their conferences top to bottom are tougher, but those are unfair advantages. The NCAA should oversee that they all get 6 homes and 6 roads if it were to be a level playig field, but money speaks. I have also heard some big time programs will not play an up and coming mid - major unless its a one off home game, they refuse to do a home and home. Unless you do a home and home, how can you track over time how much better one conferece is over the other. With a level playing field, stats that track one conference performance against another would skewed. Also, Florida's only competition outside of conference are Div II patsies to stack up stats for a Tebow Hiesman run, but don't take this as a slam, I know Florida is good, they prove it year after year.
Argument on NCAA basketball comment is not valid in this case, because they also have a tournament. If you win your conference, you can be in the tournament, teams may complain they did not get an at large bid, but if you want a shot at a National Championship, you should have won your conference. Regardless of seading, if you win your games you can be a National Champion. Every team has the chance. Football does not give every team a chance. All the National Championship proves, is that 'one of the best' teams got the title, but no one knows for sure.
Fix It
Layton , UT
Total Comments (9)
GP-
Those schools try and set up big name games like that, then once they start getting good the coaches and ADs of those big schools back out. Those big name schools dont want to risk the chance of losing to one of those non AQ schools. If they beat them its no big deal, but if they blow it, booster, fans, alum all call for the coaches head. Why would the coach risk that when he can protect his team and play the likes of Arkansas St and Northern Iowa and blow them out....Oh wait.
CreeperJ
Total Comments (2)
Q210FA6N
abear35
Lynn Haven , FL
Total Comments (5)
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