By Hugh Falk, Pollspeak.com
Last week I talked about the intriguing USC-Oregon matchup because it was not only a clash of highly ranked teams, but it was also a clash of human voters versus computer rankings. Well, the computers won that round. Don't read too much into it though, computers make errors all the time.
There isn't a dramatic human vs. computer matchup this week, but Oklahoma is the most drastic example where the two sides disagree. The coaches and AP voters rank the Sooners No. 20, and Harris voters rank them No. 19. Meanwhile, five of the six computers rank the Sooners from 34 to 44. The lone exception is (you guessed it) Billingsley who ranks them No. 17. Once again, we explained last week why Billingsley often won't agree with the other computers. With the computers' low perception of Oklahoma, they slip down to No. 24 in the BCS.
At the top of the BCS Standings, the biggest move was Texas taking over the No. 2 spot. While this might dismay some Alabama fans, it really doesn't matter. If Alabama continues to win, they'll meet Florida in the SEC Championship and get their shot to be either No.1 or No. 2 in the BCS Standings with a win over the Gators. Either way, if they win out, the Tide will be in the BCS Championship.
Meanwhile, the bottom of the BCS holds more drama. The Coaches' and Harris voters' No. 25 team, BYU, didn't crack the BCS top 25. That's a bit surprising considering the weight given to human votes. Instead South Florida snuck in with a No. 26 ranking from the humans and a better poll average than BYU. This is another example where the BCS gives humans a voting advantage. Yes, USF has a better computer poll average, but the Bulls really benefited because they still scored points while being ranked outside the top 25 in the human polls. However teams get no benefit from computer scores outside the top 25. If human votes outside the top 25 didn't count, BYU would be No. 25 in the BCS this week. For those curious, BYU's BCS average is approximately: 0.07013, which puts it right behind USF's: .0786.
In the AP, there are only 59 voters this week since Kirk Herbstreit did not turn in a ballot. He will be back in the ballot box next week, though. In the meantime, one of his co-workers, Craig James led the charge of eight voters who ranked Oregon over Boise State. 51 other voters made the right call, but James has Oregon at No. 4 and the undefeated Broncos team that beat them at No. 11.
The most polarizing team in the AP this week is Miami – ranked everywhere from 10 to unranked. The No. 10 comes from Kirk Bohls, while Craig James and Bob Asmussen are the only two to leave the Hurricanes unranked.
Central Michigan's hopes of a first top-25 ranking were dashed by the loss last weekend to Boston College. However, a moral victory goes to Temple, which received a rare vote from Mike Hlas after the Owls run of six wins in a row. Even rarer, Richmond, an FCS (I-AA) team, got a vote from the San Francisco Chronicle's Ray Ratto. Richmond is undefeated and beat a much-improved Duke team to start their season.
Duke didn't receive any votes in the AP, but they did get one in Harris Interactive and three points from the coaches after three straight ACC wins. Without public ballots, we won't know where the votes came from, but in the Coaches' Poll, I can take a guess. One point probably came from David Cutcliffe himself. With the job he's done at Duke, he deserves to pat himself on the back. The other two points could have come from Steve Spurrier, who had been giving his old team a pity vote for years in the pre-season polls. Now that there is a slim opportunity to actually vote for them, he's giving the Blue Devils their due.
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Comments (46) Add A Comment
Yeah this is news worthy, the irony is that computers are programmed by "humans" so the reason they don't agree is because computers are consistent in their bias while people love a team one week, then tear it down for not scoring enough the next week, my dream would be to save college sports from the sports writers.
GatorFace
Austin , TX
Total Comments (43)
Until the computers are allowed to take margin of victory into account (even if you cap it at some level -- say 28 points -- to avoid running up the score) then they're worse than worthless.
One of these wins is not like the others...
2-point Iowa win at Michigan
34-point Florida win at Kentucky
34-point Texas win at Missouri
31-point TCU win at BYU.
The_Guvnah
Austin , TX
Total Comments (363)
Richmond is the defending National Champs as well. Don't forget that.
AuburnElvis
Chattanooga, TN
Total Comments (2)
Never trust AuburnElvis.
Why? Because if you drive from Auburn to Memphis, you'll go right through Tupelo.
Which is a dry county.
Nick Nolte's Bangs never trust teetotalers.
Nick Nolte's Bangs
Total Comments (74)
Nice job of cherrypicking the other team's best wins to compare against Iowa's. Frankly I think it's silly to use a result against Mizzou (winless in their conference) or Kentucky (a .500 team) to measure who is the best team in the country.
Here are some more numbers (on strength of schedule):
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/polls/119
Fla - 5th
Iowa - 12th
TX - 31st
TCU 39th
mtssss
San Francisco , CA
Total Comments (6)
I agree. You cannot accurately determine the strength of a team unless you take margin of victory into consideration. When a team goes on the road and completely ransacks another solid team on the road that needs to be considered.
Iowa has been winning by the skin of their teeth every week. They have not demonstrated that they are one of the elite teams in the country. Dont get me wrong, Iowa is a fine team and winning all your games isnt easy, but to play for or even be considered for national championship birth, you need to be elite.
Texas and TCU have demonstrated this over the course of the season and either Florida or Alabama will also prove themselves over the next few weeks.
TCU gets discounted because they're not in a BCS conference, which I think is total **** because the way they're playing they could beat anyone.
So, long story short, it's gonna be Texas vs the SEC champ unless anarchy breaks loose. If it does, TCU should be considered before any of the other unbeatens or 1-loss teams.
Suicidaire
Total Comments (93)
Schedule strength is completely subjective because it is based on human votes.
Florida has 1 solid win on their ledger. LSU. That's it. The rest of schedule is a joke. Until they play the SEC championship game they wont have another solid opponent.
Texas has 2 solid wins, but the rest of their schedule is pretty weak too. They wont play anyone worth a damn in the Big 12 championship, so they're pretty much locked in on SOS.
Alabama has 1 solid win and 2 against other overrated SEC ranked teams. They get LSU this weekend and if they win, the SEC championship game. This would be a solid resume, but they havent exactly been clobbering teams.
Iowa is the weakest of the group and yet they're living off perceived schedule strength. They have a solid road win over Penn St., but they could easily have 3 losses on their ledger. Not impressive.
What it boils down to is you have to separate the undefeated teams somehow and margin of victory is a better indicator than perceived strength of schedule because it isn't influenced by voters. The SEC teams will always have a higher strength of schedule because the voters swing from the SEC's nuts.
Let's see how the next few weeks play out. I gotta tell you, I don't like Iowa's chances of staying unbeaten. They are not a dominant team despite being unbeaten.
Suicidaire
Total Comments (93)
I wasn't trying to measure best wins. I was simply illustrating that the current computer formulas are ridiculous, because they treat each of those games equally.
They're all wins by top 10 teams, on the road, against a middling conference opponent.
Three were complete and utter destruction.
One was a squeaker.
The computers treat them all the same.
I'm not AT ALL saying that SOS should be thrown out. And while I'd quibble with Iowa being a #5, their schedule certainly isn't soft. But SOS doesn't give a complete picture.
Luck might get you a two point win.
Luck doesn't account for someone winning by 34.
The_Guvnah
Austin , TX
Total Comments (363)
Hmmm...the only thing is that Kentucky doesn't compare to Michigan State. MSU has as many conference wins as Kentucky and Miss. State combined! That's 2/3 of Florida's road schedule. Another comparison could be Iowa State and Miss. State. Both are 2-3 in their respective conferences. Iowa beat ISU 35-3 while UF beat MSU 29-19.
Also, did you maybe think that Florida has a little more left in the tank after playing only one tough road game and no tough home games? Iowa has beaten ISU, UA, PSU, UM, and UW. All BCS conference teams that are over .500. Three of these wins came on the road. Florida has beaten ONE TEAM FROM A BCS CONFERENCE THAT IS OVER .500 (LSU).
Not to mention, UF beat their top 10 team by 10 pts on the road, while Iowa beat their top 10 team by 11 on the road.
Should I also mention the conditions? What's been the worst weather Florida has had to deal with? 80s and Humid? Iowa routinely has played in the cold, wind, and rain. Not exactly QB friendly environments.
usckurthy
Iowa City , IA
Total Comments (6)
I love not having a playoff system for college football. Everything makes so much sense under the BCS format. I believe that the BCS is such a good idea that college hoops should use the BCS format, just have the top 2 teams at the end of the year play one game to determine the basketball national champs. That playoff bracket junk is pointless and confusing, the BCS format is the future for all sports....:P
BlaqkJack
Total Comments (3200)
BlqkJack.....??? You rule bro.... lolol
Rugburnz
Little Rock , AR
Total Comments (3)
Until an actual playoff system is started, polling should never be an amalgamation of human and computer polls because of the obvious and extreme biases built into each... There should be two independent National Championships completely separate from each other... One by human polling and the other averaging all the major computer rankings... Both would be their legitimate Champions... Want a real playoff, there's your two contenders... See which was right... Hey, it's just a thought... Who am I to call the BCS national championship stupid and dumb and lame and just plain moronic, eh...???
Rugburnz
Little Rock , AR
Total Comments (3)
wouldnt it be wild?
Texas & Iowa win out solidly
Alabama Loses to LSU who then beats Florida in the title game
would they have the courage to move a one loss LSU team ahead of Iowa--TCU & Cinncinati
( assuming those teams also win out) ?
Is that a possible scenario?
Bedias90
Vidor , TX
Total Comments (1137)
Wait two days and then do this comparison again. Georgia, Tennessee, and Kentucky will have winning records by Sunday, and Arkansas probably will too. Then Florida and Iowa will be tied for the number of teams they beat from a BCS conference that are over .500.
gtg465x
Total Comments (103)
Really? Did you just go there? Well UF's top road win is ranked 2 spots higher than Iowa's top road win.
gtg465x
Total Comments (103)
No you shouldn't... oh, you did. First of all, the point is mute because Iowa and Florida's respective opponents have been on the same playing field. I would also argue that Florida players were on the verge of heat stroke in August and September, while Iowa players enjoyed cool and refreshing breezes. And yes, Florida has played in rain.
Iowa is a good team and deserves to be in the top 5, but dude, your arguments are WEAK. At least come up with some better stuff.
gtg465x
Total Comments (103)
In that case Texas and Iowa would play for the title. Whether LSU jumped TCU and Cinci or not would be largely irrelevant. Now if you scenario were to play out, AND Iowa or Texas were to lose, it would get dirty.
gtg465x
Total Comments (103)
Good lord - where is CBS getting their numbers?! According to the latest statistics compiled by the NCAA, SOS for those teams:
Fla - 41
Iowa - 7
Texas - 35
TCU - 75
Hmmm...it's almost like CBS has some sort of relationship with the SEC. Weird.
LonghornAndrew
Magnolia, TX
Total Comments (20)
yes it would get ugly, there would be much teeth gnashing in the "TV commercial market" meetings, and for that reason i suspect that some field game Officials might be under some pressure to manipulate a game or two-( IN THE BEST INTEREST OF THE GAME lol )--they already have and its painfully obvious.
However, after the chicanery pulled last year by the coaches poll and the ridiculous computer influence on BCS placements when they conspired to ignore won-loss results, then grease and slide OU butt first into an undeserved title game appearance, im not so sure Iowa would even then be assured of being in the big one. Supposedly Bloated scores arent a part of the factor, but do we average fans in here really know ALL the sneaks and quirks in the BCS polling?
*although some in here claim to know-likely they do not.
Bedias90
Vidor , TX
Total Comments (1137)
OSU is gonna smoke Iowa in the shoe anyway
Bedias90
Vidor , TX
Total Comments (1137)
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