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The computer rankings consider the SEC No. 1.::AP

By Hugh Falk, Pollspeak.com

Last weekend had little effect on the BCS picture.  It's still the SEC champion vs. Texas for the national championship.  Then the conference champions will take their BCS bowl slots leaving what little drama is left for who will get the at-large bids.

Depending on how the conference championships play out, there could be a lot of drama, but I'll leave that topic for next week.  This week the topic is conference strength... something that the championship games next week won't significantly affect.

Four of the BCS components also offer conference ratings:  Sagarin, Anderson & Hester, Colley, and Wolfe.  No two systems rank the conferences in the same order, but let's look at some of the things they do agree upon this week:

1)      The SEC is No. 1.   Fans from other conferences may complain on forums about ESPN's pandering to the SEC because of their TV deal...that the SEC isn't really that good.  Even if you don't believe the media consensus that the best football is played in the SEC, the arguments against are less compelling when every computer agrees.  At least this year, ESPN can say, "it ain't pandering if it's true."

2)      The PAC-10 is a strong No. 2.  Three of the four computers place the PAC-10 in the second spot.  Colley has the Big East No. 2 with the PAC-10 a close No. 3.  The PAC-10 also played the fewest FCS (1-AA) opponents of the major conferences.

3)      Admit it...the Big East is better than you thought.  Colley has them No. 2, A&H and Wolfe rank them No. 3, and Sagarin has them No. 4.  Amazingly, the Big East started the season with ZERO teams ranked in the polls.  There was a lot of forum chatter about how the Big East didn't deserve an automatic BCS bid.  Pollspeak published an article in the beleaguered league's defense, but the Big East proved itself on the field.

4)      The conferences ranked three through six tend to interchange with No. 6 split between the ACC and Big 10.  The ACC definitely hurt themselves last weekend.  They lost every SEC matchup (Georgia Tech vs. Georgia, FSU vs. Florida and Clemson vs. South Carolina); plus ranked North Carolina lost to NC State.  Miami was the best champion for the ACC's non-conference rep .

5)      The Mountain West and the WAC still have a long way to go to earn respect.  Every computer has the Mountain West over the WAC but also has both ranked below the big six conferences (and typically below the independents.)  So while Boise State and TCU are great stories this year (and past years) and other teams like BYU and Utah earned respect, the conferences can't be taken seriously as a whole until some more of their teams get with the program.

But what do conference rankings really mean?  According to Wes Colley they basically mean that an average team in the top-ranked conference is better than an average team from a lower-ranked conference.  And according to Jeff Anderson, "The top-ranked conference is the conference that, on average, has the best teams."  Note that the operative word in these sentences is "average."

Obviously, it doesn't mean that the SEC champion will automatically be the national champion.  Texas, TCU, Boise State, etc. could potentially beat any team in the country.  However, until the best teams regularly line up and play (during the season or in a playoff), conference strength is another tool to help voters rank teams.  It shouldn't take precedence over team strength of schedule since out-of-conference games count just as much in the national picture.  Teams like TCU and Boise State have admirably bolstered their weak conference schedules with strong out of conference teams.  However, it still isn't enough since TCU's schedule ranks No. 84 nationally and Boise's ranks No. 91 according to Sagarin.

If the teams in the conferences that are ranked No. 7 or lower want a serious shot at the national title, they either need to join a stronger conference or hope the rest of their teams improve.   Of course, they could always go undefeated against three or four top-twenty, non-conference teams, but that isn't likely, and is a harder task than playing against a bunch of "average" teams in conference.  And that's really the key with the computers - the AVERAGE.  The WAC and Mountain West don't need to focus on making their best teams better; they just need to make their average teams more average.  I'm not saying this will truly make one conference better than another, but I am saying it is the key to getting the computers to think so.

I'm running out of time to deal with the human voters this week, but let me give them a quick mention:

  • The Coaches have California ranked lower than any other BCS component.
  • Harris Interactive has West Virginia ranked lower than any other BCS component.
  • And I never thought I'd see the day when USC was getting a LOT more respect from the computers than from the voters. Actually, LSU isn't faring much better with the voters. One AP voter in particular, Teddy Feinberg, was the only one to leave LSU off of his ballot...and one of the few to leave out USC. It seems he needed to make room for Northwestern, which he ranks highest at No. 14.
December 3, 2009  05:36 PM ET

Last weekend did have an effect on the BCS in one fashion. Rivalry week produced a glaring misrepresentation of the quality of football teams performing in the ACC. Example: A reeling 6-5 Georgia stomps top ten Georgia Tech; A swooning 6-5 South Carolina crushes a high rolling top twenty Clemson....and if you watched FL/FSU, the beatdown (prior to the 2nds & 3rds) was worse than Charleston Southern and Troy- basically sealing Bobby Bowden's fate. If Georgia Tech and Clemson had won, both could have been in BCS consideration. First # 15

December 3, 2009  07:47 PM ET

Stomped may be a strong term for the GA Tech/GA game, but yes, GA won. GA played out of it's minds and needed a dropped pass to secure the victory. Hats off to the SEC. They have won the beauty contest again.

The good news is Clemson and GA Tech are still in BCS contention as they play for the ACC Championship this weekend.

December 3, 2009  08:35 PM ET

It's about time someone will acknowledge that the SEC is the best Conference this year. Not tring to put down any other conferences, but the non Conference play of the SEC is a lot better then any other Conference. Roll Tide Roll!!!!

December 3, 2009  08:37 PM ET

Feinberg is an idiot. He should be removed from the Harris poll for having Northwestern ahead of LSU and USC.

December 3, 2009  08:40 PM ET

When you run for 350 yards out of the I-formation straight up the gut, stomped is a pretty fair term. After watching Georgia all year, "playing out of their mind" is the excessive phrase. Dropped passes, penalties in the red zone, fumbles, kickoffs out of bounds, bad play calling when we had a chance to put the game away, and missed tackles resulting in long gains, I'd say it was a typical Georgia game. We were just better than you. And you had two weeks to prepare.

December 4, 2009  01:24 AM ET

If you want to talk about a team playing "out of its mind", let's talk about the Tech team that beat Georgia last year...now that is out of your mind. Let's see, that same Tech team got creamed in its bowl game by an LSU team that got creamed by Georgia earlier in the season.

Then again, I guess you could say Georgia is playing "out of it's mind" this year. If you consider "out of its mind" to be the worst season we have had in recent memory. Funny, the team that played "out of its mind" this season in the worst way possible STILL beat a Tech team that thought they were going to cream the Dawgs.

Here are some "out of its mind" numbers. Mark Richt has had 6 10-win seasons in the past 9 years (counting this one)...Tech has had one (counting this one). Georgia has now won 8 out of it's last 9 games against Tech...Tech has won, um, one. So, as you can see, Georgia was not playing "out of its mind"; it was simply playing true to form. Another year, another win against the Jackets.

December 4, 2009  01:33 AM ET

Breaking News: The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are changing their name to the Georgia Tech Cicadas. Boosters and administration thought Cicadas were a more fitting mascot since the football team only shows up once every 8-10 years.

December 4, 2009  07:20 AM ET

It sure is interesting that such a gawdawful team like Tech from such a gawdawful league like the ACC gets SOOO much attention from the bull dog faithful. You'd think they'd find something better to do, like search google and find out what state Shreveport is in...

December 4, 2009  08:16 AM ET

hedgeplauge - I think that you missed the point. Yes, the Dawgs may possibly be playing in the Independence Bowl, and the GameCocks may be playing in the toliet bowl, but either way the SEC toliet bowl attendees will have beaten the BEST that the ACC has to offer!! Your ACC Champion doesn't deserve a BCS Bowl if they can't beat a 6-5 Georgia or a 6-5 South Carolina! Pathetic! Can't wait to see either of you get waxed by a mid major on a national stage! Horn Frogs, Horn Frogs, Horn Frogs.......

December 4, 2009  08:17 AM ET

Hey Hedgepee, I issued the beatdown declaration (on the ACC) and I am a staunch GATOR Fan. SOOOOO much attention from Bulldog faithful?

Let's put it this way......In conference play, week after week the ACC plays it's schedule and a couple of teams rise to the top receiving SOOOOO much pub from the MEDIA.

Rivalry Week comes along and the prolific ACC offenses hit a wall, and the staunch ACC defenses wilt in the face of the SEC offensive torrent.

Then comes Bowl Weeks.....and down go the supposedly equally matched, rested ACC teams, one after another, year after year. Why? Coaching and Defense, it is as consistant as the Pope is Catholic. Step it up ACC, # 6 conference in the land of college football is WELL BELOW the standards of this region of the country. Go Gators - First # 15

December 4, 2009  11:12 AM ET
QUOTE(#5):

When you run for 350 yards out of the I-formation straight up the gut, stomped is a pretty fair term. After watching Georgia all year, "playing out of their mind" is the excessive phrase. Dropped passes, penalties in the red zone, fumbles, kickoffs out of bounds, bad play calling when we had a chance to put the game away, and missed tackles resulting in long gains, I'd say it was a typical Georgia game. We were just better than you. And you had two weeks to prepare.

Right, it had nothing to do with our starting quarterback getting hurt and going out for most of the first half. While Nesbitt was in the game we outscored you. Consider yourself lucky.

December 4, 2009  11:15 AM ET
QUOTE(#7):

Breaking News: The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are changing their name to the Georgia Tech Cicadas. Boosters and administration thought Cicadas were a more fitting mascot since the football team only shows up once every 8-10 years.

We'll see about that. I think Paul Johnson will continue to improve the program. Your days of easy wins may be over.

December 4, 2009  11:24 AM ET
QUOTE(#8):

It sure is interesting that such a gawdawful team like Tech from such a gawdawful league like the ACC gets SOOO much attention from the bull dog faithful. You'd think they'd find something better to do, like search google and find out what state Shreveport is in...

Georgia has been far more thoroughly dominated by Florida than Tech has by Georgia, so that's not really a talking point for them. They lost to both teams last year and were silent, so they have a lot of built up anger they need to get out.

December 4, 2009  11:39 AM ET
QUOTE(#10):

Hey Hedgepee, I issued the beatdown declaration (on the ACC) and I am a staunch GATOR Fan. SOOOOO much attention from Bulldog faithful? Let's put it this way......In conference play, week after week the ACC plays it's schedule and a couple of teams rise to the top receiving SOOOOO much pub from the MEDIA.Rivalry Week comes along and the prolific ACC offenses hit a wall, and the staunch ACC defenses wilt in the face of the SEC offensive torrent.Then comes Bowl Weeks.....and down go the supposedly equally matched, rested ACC teams, one after another, year after year. Why? Coaching and Defense, it is as consistant as the Pope is Catholic. Step it up ACC, # 6 conference in the land of college football is WELL BELOW the standards of this region of the country. Go Gators - First # 15

They're rivalry games genius. They're unpredictable and the better team doesn't always win. I was a Florida fan long before I was a GT fan so I don't want to rag on my Gators too much, but Tech put up wayyy more points against Mississippi State and Vandy than Florida did this year. Tech's offense is for real, and the only time they really got stuffed by Georgia is when our starting quarterback was out with an injury for several series. Our defense admittedly isn't that good this year, but the fact that we still managed to win 10 games in spite of that says a lot about our offense.

December 4, 2009  12:13 PM ET

SOO,

If the SEC is so great why cant USC run right past an arguably average Clemson team this last decade more than 1/4 of the time? What was Auburn's record against GT this decade, Vanderbilt's record against GT this decade, THE ONLY losses we have had to an SEC team this DECADE were to those BULLdogs, whom I will admit HAD (past tense) our number, and an LSU team one year removed from the National Championship.

FSU has obviously been floundering, but thats more about FSU than the ACC. They were also without their starting QB against the #1 team in the nation.

USC had lost THREE times IAR or FOUR out of FIVE to Clemson. I have always thought that if USC had a better coach, like Lou Holtz or someone they may finally be a serious program. Seriously though, that is one team whose record does not match their abilities.

Speaking of schedules did you LOOK at Floridas...! 7 games in Florida, or was it 7 in the swamp. the OFC schedule looked like you guys were in the lingerie league. GT played 11 straight weeks with no break. After Jax state (who is ranked higher than you might think) we had CLem at home, Mia away (third game in 3 days verses Mia who was playing their 2nd in 12 days), away games Vandy, Miss St, UVA, FSU on Bowden night, Duke, thats 6 Ray Bob (since you have trouble spelling, I thought I would help with the math just in case), and the rest of our home games Wake, VT, UNC, uga. IF Florida had played any kind of schedule they wouldnt be undefeated, and though I will be rooting for them tomorrow, expect that they will be exposed by a tested SEC team.

Uga is the only SEC team willing to put it on the line out of conference and I applaud their schedule this year. Look for them to back off now that they see that they really aren't good enough to handle it.

December 4, 2009  12:25 PM ET

gt465x - Your starting QB was out for 2 series. Our best player was out for the entire game. Our starting cornerback was out for the vast majority of the game, allowing several big plays against his backup. Our start freshman safety was still out from the hit that closed the Auburn game. Our best offensive lineman was out all season. Do you really want to play this game?

December 4, 2009  12:46 PM ET

Sorry but the SEC is not on par with the PAC 10 this year. The BCS ratings are meaningless because the division is broken in half and they play more Div 1 teams to fill in the gaps. If the SEC played all the teams in the division like the PAC-10 does now, like all conferences should, it may be a different story, but then they would run the risk of their top teams having one or two loses early in the year and that would hurt their ratings.

December 4, 2009  01:08 PM ET

Compare the out of conference schedules and records of the top conferences and it's hard to top the Pac 10. What's the record of interconference play between the SEC and the Pac 10 the last 4 years ? The Pac 10 also has a 9-2 bowl record the last 2 years. These things are always cyclical but it has become an accepted mantra within the media that the SEC is hands down the top conference...I'm sure it has nothing to do with the deep ties between ESPN and the SEC and wanting to increase ratings....money would never sway the unbiased media. I predict the Pac 10 going 6-0 in bowl games this year.....talk is great SEC but....."scoreboard"

December 4, 2009  01:17 PM ET

Did Oregon, the best the PAC 10 has to offer, get absolutly mauled by Boise St? Just a thought. I sure excuse will follow to support that Oregon should have, could have won.

 
December 4, 2009  01:31 PM ET
QUOTE(#15):

SOO,If the SEC is so great why cant USC run right past an arguably average Clemson team this last decade more than 1/4 of the time? What was Auburn's record against GT this decade, Vanderbilt's record against GT this decade, THE ONLY losses we have had to an SEC team this DECADE were to those BULLdogs, whom I will admit HAD (past tense) our number, and an LSU team one year removed from the National Championship.FSU has obviously been floundering, but thats more about FSU than the ACC. They were also without their starting QB against the #1 team in the nation.USC had lost THREE times IAR or FOUR out of FIVE to Clemson. I have always thought that if USC had a better coach, like Lou Holtz or someone they may finally be a serious program. Seriously though, that is one team whose record does not match their abilities.Speaking of schedules did you LOOK at Floridas...! 7 games in Florida, or was it 7 in the swamp. the OFC schedule looked like you guys were in the lingerie league. GT played 11 straight weeks with no break. After Jax state (who is ranked higher than you might think) we had CLem at home, Mia away (third game in 3 days verses Mia who was playing their 2nd in 12 days), away games Vandy, Miss St, UVA, FSU on Bowden night, Duke, thats 6 Ray Bob (since you have trouble spelling, I thought I would help with the math just in case), and the rest of our home games Wake, VT, UNC, uga. IF Florida had played any kind of schedule they wouldnt be undefeated, and though I will be rooting for them tomorrow, expect that they will be exposed by a tested SEC team.Uga is the only SEC team willing to put it on the line out of conference and I applaud their schedule this year. Look for them to back off now that they see that they really aren't good enough to handle it.

It appears that the coaches polls, and all the other polls don't agree with you on Fl's schedule. However across the board, Fl's schedule is not as stout as it normally is. But honestly, which is better, if a team plays 5 ranked conference games, or a team that plays 2 OOC games, and 2 conference games. Does it really matters what conference their in???

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