Three thoughts heading into today’s semifinal showdown between Russia and Spain (2:45 p.m. ET, ESPN, barring any unforeseen lightning bolts):
• How did Russia’s Andrei Arshavin slip under the international radar? The only thing that stunned me as much as Arshavin’s star-making domination of the Netherlands and Sweden was discovering this: he’s 27 years old. Turns out that Arshavin has been a promising talent in Russia since making his debut for Zenit St. Petersburg in 2000 and producing sick highlight reels like this. Yet while he made his debut for Russia in 2002, the team hadn’t qualified for a major tournament between the 2002 World Cup Euro 2004 and Euro 2008. Held back by his own immaturity, according to several accounts, Arshavin started buckling down a bit in 2006 under his two new Dutch coaches—Dick Advocaat (at Zenit) and Guus Hiddink (with Russia)—and won his first Russian league MVP award that year.
Earlier this year Arshavin led Zenit to the UEFA Cup title (European club soccer’s NIT), and now he’s on the verge of a big-money move to Spain or England. If he can do his thing again today and take down Spain, Arshavin will have a chance to put himself among the greats in European Championship history in the final against Germany on Sunday. If you want to know more here’s the best article on Arshavin that I’ve seen this week.
• Can Russia pull off its third straight upset? Why not? Forget the 4-1 that Spain hung on Russia in their Euro opener. Arshavin didn’t play in that game (due to suspension), the Russian defense wet the bed (chief perpetrator Denis Kolodin won’t play today on a yellow-card suspension) and the Russian attack put Spain on its heels at times. Forwards David Villa and Fernando Torres will exert serious pressure on the probable new Russian centerback, Aleksei Berezutski, but he and Sergei Ignashevich shouldn’t have communication issues since they also partner at CSKA Moscow. Bottom line: if Russia can put the squeeze on Spain’s talented but small midfielders, if Roman Pavlyuchenko can keep providing one sterling finish a game, and if Arshavin can keep his mojo going, then I think the Russians will win this game. Russia 3, Spain 2.
• I hope we can see the whole game today. There’s not much else to say after yesterday’s TV transmission fiasco on the Turkey-Germany game. Shame on UEFA for not being prepared with a back-up plan in case something entirely plausible like a severe thunderstorm happened. But shame on ESPN, too, for erroneously claiming to viewers that the entire world was missing as much of the game as we were in the U.S.—nearly 25 minutes of the second half, including two goals and the final whistle. As several Blog commenters noted, many European countries were able to tap into the Swiss feed and barely missed any of the game. (At least ESPN rebroadcast the match in its entirety later in the evening.) In the big picture it’s great that ESPN has been showing all the Euro games this time around, but yesterday was a big, big downer.
Through-balls: Who knew that Roman Abramovich might end up having more success bankrolling Russia’s national team than he’s had with his own Chelsea team? ... During the brief late stretch when U.S. viewers got the signal back yesterday, I figured we must have been watching the Italian or Spanish feeds, since cameras were suddenly focusing on a lot more attractive women in the stands ... If I’m Luis Aragonés, I’m starting Cesc today in place of Xavi. Not that I’m expecting that to happen ... Russia’s Pavlyuchenko (or Pavs, as me and my buddies call him) is a maddening player. Yes, he’s had two great finishes against Sweden and Holland, but he’s also terribly erratic at times. I wonder if some big club is going to throw a lot of money at Pavs and be disappointed in the end ... Memo to Aragonés: if you get the urge to put on Dani Güiza, just say no.
Who do you like in today’s game? How wide-open do you think it will be? Please post your comments below and check back after the game for the latest edition of the Euro 2008 Blog ...
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Comments (24) Add A Comment
I agree with you about Guiza. Why exactly did you leave Raul at home again? And one more thing, the UEFA Cup is not the NIT. It has a lot of good teams in it and teams actually care about.
Keeper
La Fayette , GA
Total Comments (2070)
A lot of folks seem to be concentrating on how vulnerable the Russian back line might be and overlooking the fact that Spain's backline has been marginal this tournament. Senna's been playing out of his mind and has hidden a lot of their holes but to me, Ramos' work in his own end is below average and Puyol's been a step (or two) slow all tournament long. I think both teams may pull back an extra midfielder and rein in the runs from the fullbacks to compensate. Could be less of a shootout than we're all expecting.
Greenweather
Seattle , WA
Total Comments (1)
I'm hoping Spain can carry on the momentum of finally beating Italy in an international competition and take this Russia team seriously, something the Dutch failed to do.
fernandopm
Total Comments (10)
This should be a great game. Ultimately I think it comes down to whether or not Russia can take their chances or if they continue to spurn great chances that more experienced Spain will take.
DriveC
Madison , WI
Total Comments (47)
Spanish defenders have the experience of going at players who can change a game like Arshavin in La Liga (Messi, Dinho, Robinho, Aimar, Zidane, etc). I want Spain to win but Hiddink is a genius. I have Russia as a slight favorite
Big Chaco
Los Angeles , CA
Total Comments (1474)
I just hope that we get that Scottish commentator and not Tommy Smith. Smith does not know the game as well. Was he even a former player? This new guy ESPN has, Gray I think, knows the game and has a colorful way of commenting on it.
French fan
Birmingham , AL
Total Comments (2)
Re: Russia - I think it's unfair to the rest of the participants that the tournament is held now. It's impossible to have it any other way, but you gotta think about this. Most of the players have just finished grueling 8 MONTHS OF INTENSE SOCCER! I think Ronaldo, Evra etc. have played like 60 games this season. The Russians have STARTED THEIR SEASON in mid-March, plus UEFA Cup games for Zenit, meaning they are literally in midseason form. No wonder they were running circles around the Dutch in overtime...
Fzec
Total Comments (6)
Comparing the UEFA Cup to the NIT may seem a bit harsh at first, but is actually a good comparison. Teams in the UEFA Cup are either second echelon teams to begin with or teams who were eliminated from the Champions League in the early rounds. Either way UEFA Cup is second tier.
blue42
Total Comments (14)
It is difficult to sustain supremacy during a tournament like EURO. I believe only the 1984 French team was able to win all their group matches and end up winners. Spain started well in group play, then struggled against Italy. Have they lost momentum already?
Russia totally sucked in their opening match (not sure why their lackluster effort in that game has been sugarcoated after their recent successes). Russia still struggled vs Greece in their second game, yet has gained momentum since then.
I am wondering if there is a reason Arshavin has not been discovered until now. Can he be consistently good? I hope he can, he's fun to watch, but now the pressure is on him. Barca is watching.
I expect Guus Hiddink to target Ramos when Russia has the ball, mark Silva very closely and leave Puyol unmarked when Spain has the ball. Russia did not mark Bouhlarouz in the quarters and that worked well. Count the number of times Puyol plays the ball sideways or backwards tonight. But don't turn it into a drinking game. You might not make it into the second half.
blue42
Total Comments (14)
Russia has been the real surprise of this tournament. They have been doing it with talent, not luck, which is why I see them progressing today. Turkey's LUCK finally ran out yesterday. TALENT sees a team through.
And I understand why you said the NIT remark to put it into perspective for Americans who don't know what's happening over there, but it is not the same thing at all. No worries, though, mate!
bygwyllay
Ypsilanti, MI
Total Comments (17)
Arshavin should go to Spain. I'd be concerned his lack of size could be a detriment in the more "physical" English game.
As far as Cesc starting for Xavi- disagree. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. It is an incredible psychological advantage Aragones has knowing he can bring in a Cesc at his leisure, especially in the 2nd half towards the end of a demanding tournament. If Xavi actually catches fire against the Russians, beautiful. If not, then it's business as usual.
I'm sticking with my prediction of Spain in penalty kicks after a 1-1 draw.
Let's just hope us Yanks get to see every moment of it today!
BigMike608
Indialantic , FL
Total Comments (18)
The best way I can put it is that the Russians weren't as bad as they appeared to be against Spain but not as good as they appeared against Holland. I think they are somewhere in the middle. Russia has the younger side but Spain's experience may be too much to overcome. I can see the Russia's starting to get frustrated with Spain's ball-hogging possession style of play. Like a cobra dancing in a basket Spain lull's you to sleep with all their horizontal passes, and all it takes is a momentary lapse for them to lauch a quick strike that is often deadly effective and strike a fatal blow to the opposition.
Barca4Life
Milwaukee , WI
Total Comments (180)
Blue42...
1. Russia did not "suck" against Spain in the first game... they were extremely dangerous in the first half and unlucky not to score. Spain put in two goals and the game was difficult to contend with after that. Still, Russia had opportunities against a weak Spanish defense and the scoreline could have just as easily been 3-2 as it was 4-1. Spain were better on the day, though and I won't refute that.
2. Arshavin didn't play in the first two games and the whole world can see what a difference he has made. I'm not going to compare him to Zizou, just yet... but imagine France winning anything without him... oh, we don't need to imagine that... we just saw it! ;p
3. Grant just explained why we haven't seen Arshavin before now.
4. Most center-backs (ie: Puyol) don't get marked man for man for several reasons: (i) they don't take up threatening offensive positions because its a hell of a long way to get back and cover when you lose possession, (ii) they generally have the heart of the opponents midfield and defense in front of them so it is difficult to make trully dangerous passes over such a long distance between so many bodies, and (iii) strikers generally suck at man marking and the task detracts from their objective. If it were any different, we wouldn't have defenders and strikers... instead it would be all midfielders occupying different areas of the pitch. One last point that applies exclusively to Puyol, is he's so short that he is not much of a threat when he comes up for corners.
Why does Puyol play so many lateral and/or negative balls? Because Spain play a possession game and often prefer to keep possession rather than play through balls from the back that have a low probability of success (see related point (ii) above).
5. I agree 100% that Hiddink will target Ramos. Spain's wing-backs have been poor and it's really only Senna and Puyol that have kept the goals out so far. Ramos has been at fault for almost real attacking threat Spain has faced thus far. It might be excusable if he had been more productive coming forward, but he hasn't, so far.
jaked96
Charlotte , NC
Total Comments (4)
Can someone explain how the ESPN announcers did the game last night? Did they just pretend they didn't know what was going to happen? It was bizarre hearing them call a game that they already knew the results to, and pretend it was the original recording.
Tever99
Columbus, OH
Total Comments (8)
Barca4life...
Nice post. Agree with your assessment and particularly like your analogy.
jaked96
Charlotte , NC
Total Comments (4)
hey grant, i know you're not in austria right now, but does baltimore not have internet? russia qualified for euro 2004, and was in spain's group that time around, too. i don't ask for much from american soccer "experts," but can't you at least check your facts?
losevillista
Los Angeles , CA
Total Comments (2)
hey grant, i know you're not in austria, but doesn't baltimore have internet? russia not only qualified for euro 2004, they were in the same group as spain back then, too. i don't ask for much from american soccer "experts," but can't you at least check your facts?
losevillista
Los Angeles , CA
Total Comments (2)
Fixed the mistake. Hope you've enjoyed the Blog nevertheless.
Grant Wahl
Baltimore, MD
Total Comments (10)
@jaked96
Thanks for your reply. Good stuff. I guess we will have to agree to disagree on Russia's level of play in their opening match. May I note that even coach Hiddink was extremely disappointed with his team's performance vs Spain (not the result, but the way the team played) and that he has revealed he called out many of his players to either bring it or they'll get replaced.
I am personally not ready to mention Arshavin and Zidane in the same sentence after just two EURO games, but I sure hope Arshavin can show consistency. It would sure help him if Pavlyuchenko can be a tad more efficient upfront.
My point as far as Puyol is concerned: He will be allowed to have the ball all game long and either kick it long to his undersized team mates upfront or perform his favorite trick (play it backwards to his goalie).
blue42
Total Comments (14)
Way to go Grant!! To suggest to seat Xavi!! Great Barca combination on the goal!!
Oscar Honduras
Total Comments (6)
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