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  • 09:56 AM ET  06.25

BASEL, Switzerland—Now this is more like it. The Euro 2008 Blog is finally on-site, nibbling on some Swiss chocolate and devouring the European dailies as we take you inside the final week of the world’s biggest soccer event of the year. Over a cold bottle of raki last night at the team hotel, Turkey coach Fatih Terim told me ...

Oh, who am I kidding?

MY COUCH IN BALTIMORE—Okay, let’s imagine that I did share drinks last night with Terim on the eve of today’s semifinal clash between Turkey and Germany (2:45 p.m. ET, ESPN). The Emperor—a sort of Turkish Tommy Lasorda who’s the best Euro 2008 coach not named Guus Hiddink—presumably would have wanted to talk about:

The rules on yellow-card suspensions. I know the Miracle Turks have amassed a tournament-leading 15 cards (14 yellow, one red), but the fact is that soccer fans are being shortchanged today by the yellow-card suspensions of offensive stars Arda Turan and Tuncay Sanli. It’s high time that the rules were changed to require three accumulated yellow cards for a suspension instead of two—especially now that the slate isn’t wiped clean until after the quarterfinals (instead of after the first round, as it used to be). Referees are just too capricious, inconsistent and, well, officious to let two yellow cards in four games determine a player’s fate. We want to see the best against the best at their best. That’s unfortunate for all of us neutrals because ...

Terim may have to pull a Donadoni against Germany. Losing Arda, Tuncay and goal-sniper Nihat Kaveci (who’s injured) may well force Turkey into defensive-minded survival mode (aka, Let’s play for penalties!) in the fashion of Italy against Spain. Yes, the Emperor will have goal-scoring hero Semih Sentürk and Kazim Kazim available to play up top, but his attack-minded mids are likely to be a big downgrade in Ugur Boral, Gökdeniz Karadeniz and Sabri Sarioglu (unless he decides to throw rangy right back Hamit Altintop in as a midfielder). Keep in mind, too, that Turkey only has one fit potential substitute field player, which decreases the likelihood of attackers wanting to buzz around for 120 minutes until penalties. Bottom line: the key to opening up this game will be an early German goal.

Key matchup: Germany’s Bastian Schweinsteiger vs. Turkey’s Hakan Balta or Hamit Altintop. Much has been made in the run-up to this semifinal of the simpático feelings between Germans and German Turks, the nation’s largest minority, and both Hakan Balta (a Berlin native) and Altintop (a Gelsenkirchen native) have had good tournaments as Turkey’s outside backs. So we can expect some good German trash-talk when one of them is matched up against the rampaging Schweini, for me one of the tournament’s three best players along with Russia’s Andrei Arshavin and Spain’s David Villa. Schweinsteiger covers a ton of ground, is blessed with a 120-minute motor and has a habit of beating defenders to the ball at important moments (as when he burned Ricardo Carvalho and Paulo Ferreira to score against Portugal).

Does Turkey have any miracles left? The Emperor can only hope so, because his team is facing its longest odds yet. The Germans have been threatening in the run of play (especially Schweinsteiger, Lukas Podolski and Michael Ballack), but they’ve been even more dangerous on set-pieces, which the Turks figure to give up frequently if the ball stays in their defensive half of the field. With Emre Asik out (due to another !@#$ yellow-card suspension) we may see a defensive midfielder (Mehmet Aurélio or Mehmet Topal) moving back into central defense, which may make things unsettled for the Turks. Long story short: For Turkey to win it needs to play an amazing defensive game and hope for penalties or a quick-strike counter-attack (perhaps with Altintop making a full-field jailbreak run and finishing the way Tony Sanneh should have against the Germans in 2002). It could happen, I guess, but it’s not likely. Germany 2, Turkey 0.

Who do you like today? Are the Germans the tournament favorite now? And should Joachim Löw invest in a new shirt to replace the white one he wears all the time? Please post your comments below and come back after the game for the latest edition of the Euro 2008 Blog ...
June 25, 2008  10:19 AM ET

with all those yellow cards for the Turks, it seems they don't know what fair play is... miracles are over now, Germany will shred them!!!!

June 25, 2008  10:44 AM ET

I admire the Turks for coming back, game after game. Germany will take an early 2-0 lead, then Turkey will score to get everyone's hopes up, and then Germany will finish them, 3-1.

June 25, 2008  11:02 AM ET

I thought cumulative cards were still wiped clean after the first round! Knock out phase is a completely new tournamet and teams should be able to make a clean start, including booked players!
This new rule is completely absurd, definetly hurts the spectacle and forces teams to sometimes play for PKs as you point out.

June 25, 2008  11:16 AM ET

I think the suspension rule is crazy as well, Mainly because most of the refs in Euro 08 are card happy and give one away in the beginning of the match and are forced to give more out the rest of the match for stupid reasons. Let them play refs, we want a game.

June 25, 2008  11:26 AM ET

At least they're not CONCACAF refs. . .

June 25, 2008  11:38 AM ET

The reason cumulative cards are now knocked out after the quarter-finals and not after the group, is to avoid players being suspended for the final. Too many times players would get a yellow in the quarters and the semi-final and then have to sit out the final. Does this make complete sense? Maybe not, but I would personally rather miss a semi-final than the final. That being said, if you don't reach the final then you're just SOL.

I think (pray) Germany wins, but I'm too nervous to make any scoreline predictions.

June 25, 2008  11:46 AM ET

I just can't predict against the Turks in this tournament. Everything says they should lose this game. Still, given their run, I can't pick against them. Something tells me Lehmann is going to be giving a gift to Turkey at some point in this game. Turkey 2-2 Germany with Turkey over Germany in penalties.

And I don't have a problem with someone missing a final if they're dumb enough to pick up a yellow card in consecutive games when they know that doing so will cause them to miss the final. I mean, look at Italy - Pirlo and Gattuso both missed the Spain game because they picked up yellow cards while their team was winning and playing with an extra man. There's no excuse for that and they should be punished. But two yellows in four games is a lot harder to avoid. I prefer the old way.

June 25, 2008  11:52 AM ET

Turks over the German's in a penalty shoot-out. HAHAHAHAHA. Last time Germany lost a penalty shoot-out was 1976. HAHAHAHAHAHAH.

June 25, 2008  11:54 AM ET

If the yellow card rule is eliminated (or changed to 3 yellow cards to miss a game), players will get foul-happy and rough. Turkish players should have been more careful. Refereeing is great in this Euro, perhaps one of the best tournaments in terms of consistency.
Remember, Michael Ballack missed the World Cup final because of yellow cards, so the Turks will have to take the suspensions and try their best.
All said, it will be a suspensful game. Turkey will likely defend vigorously and the Germans will have to be very efficient to win.

June 25, 2008  11:58 AM ET

Germany 2-1

Turks will fight like wounded pit bulls, but eventually the composure and discipline of the Germans will get the best of them.

Yellow cards should never be cumulative in my opinion, particularly in this era when refs hand them out so freely.

June 25, 2008  11:59 AM ET

Lets go Turkey!!

June 25, 2008  12:00 PM ET

Tell Turkey to learn how to play clean! Fickle refs simply cannot account for 15 yellow cards!

Are you actually defending the Turkish keeper shoving a Croatian to the ground?

The Turks have played fabulously, but they have certainly also been playing desperately, and those cards were well deserved.

As a comparison, in Euro 2004 the Greek team was not handicapped by yellows, despite the numerous slide tackles and very defensive play. On occassion a yellow is improperly given, but in general the Turks are to blame for the present condition.

This is a tournament--injuries and cards WILL play a role!

June 25, 2008  12:01 PM ET

Go Deutschland!!!

BRINGT DER POKAL NACH HAUS!!!!!

June 25, 2008  12:08 PM ET

I love Raki and can't get enough Turkish food but they'll only eating going on today will be Deutschland eating the Turks alive. As long as they don't mess with the winning lineup and keep their composure (which they always do) it will be a victory walking away.

I just hope there is no violence back in the homeland as German-Turk relations have been tense for a long time there.

June 25, 2008  12:09 PM ET

Yeah it's always sad when coaches tease putting in the back-up keeper's back-up into the match. Zengin may have to be used and it would be ugly to see him try to play. I also believe that they have more cards because when you play down goals for so long you are going to start fouling and trying to catch up as you push forward. I think Rustu will have to play a good match if the Turks have any chance at all.

June 25, 2008  12:15 PM ET

I really see Kazim Kazim stepping his game up today. Among other tihngs, there is something to be said for the motivation that drives these players and their respective teams. Some of these players, moreso on the Turkish team, will never get the chance to shine on such a bright stage, ever. That can be a powerful motivator for a player, a team, and a coach. Therefore, I simply can't write off the Turks, not even against a team with Lehmann, Schweinsteiger, Ballack, Podolski and Klose on it.

Even if the Germans are peaking at the right time; it is the Turks who have everything to gain and nothing to lose.

June 25, 2008  12:37 PM ET

deutchland uber alles......3-1.

June 25, 2008  12:41 PM ET

What about Bilic in Croatia? I think overall, especially for his age, he sticks out as one of the better coaching performances of the tournament. I won't fault Terim, but his players just came up with some unbelievable stuff. With only a few marquee players (from a country of 4 million) the Croats did quite well could very well be playing today, mostly because of coaching. Turkey is in because of luck and sublime spurts orchestrated by a few players.

The poor Turks, I wish they had just a few more players, but I'd love to see some crazy comeback involving the 3rd choice GK coming in as a striker and tying the game up with a header or something. For some reason with the Turks that doesn't even sound that crazy.

June 25, 2008  12:44 PM ET

If the yellow card rule is eliminated (or changed to 3 yellow cards to miss a game), players will get foul-happy and rough. Turkish players should have been more careful. Refereeing is great in this Euro, perhaps one of the best tournaments in terms of consistency.
Remember, Michael Ballack missed the World Cup final because of yellow cards, so the Turks will have to take the suspensions and try their best.
All said, it will be a suspensful game. Turkey will likely defend vigorously and the Germans will have to be very efficient to win.

mm77 | 06/25/08, 11:54 AM
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Refereeing has been great??? Wow, we have very low standards.

 
June 25, 2008  12:49 PM ET

eeerie1 ... you are right of course. By "great", I meant that refereeing has not decided the outcome of any game. Also, the refereeing was consistent enough, agree with their decisions or not. Certainly, they have not condemned Turkey (or any other team) in terms of yellow cards and so on. That's what I meant. You have to agree with that, right?

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