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  • 10:40 PM ET  06.05
The last time I reported on the European soccer championship for SI, in 2004, Greek captain Theodoras Zagorakis was in the underbelly of Lisbon’s Estádio da Luz asking me and a few other journos if we wanted to touch the championship trophy after the biggest upset triumph in the history of the tournament. Finally, improbably, Hoosiers had come to the Continent.

This time around? I’ll be on my couch in Baltimore. But fear not: Over the next three weeks I’ll be writing a blog for SI.com on Euro 2008, providing thoughts on what I consider to be the highest-level international soccer tournament around. Yes, in many ways the Euro is even better than the World Cup, not least because we don’t have to endure one-sided matches involving the Togos, Chinas and Saudi Arabias of the world.

In the Euro every team is legit--England didn’t even survive qualifying this time around--and the soccer is the real deal. Better yet, after years of having to track down Euro games on pay-per-view and in soccer-friendly sports bars in the States, every single game of Euro 2008 will be shown live on the ESPN networks, with the majority available in HD (which helps soccer more than any other sport).

What does all this mean? Thanks to the time difference Americans will have yet another daily sporting event to drain millions of dollars in production from our office-workers on weekdays.

As we get ready for co-host Switzerland to meet the Czech Republic in the Euro 2008 opener on Saturday, here are five things on my mind:

Will entertaining soccer be winning soccer? As shocking as Greece’s ’04 triumph may have been, it was the result of dour tactics and a victory for negative soccer in general. Italy, too, played a maddeningly conservative style in Euro 2000 on its way to final, which is why we’re hoping to see more eye-popping stuff this time around from the likes of Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands and the Italians (who’ve been more fun to watch of late under Roberto Donadoni). Why, even the conservative French coach Raymond Domenech has dumped his one-forward formation recently in favor of two strikers (Thierry Henry and rising star Karim Benzema), a positive step for Les Bleus in their first major tournament of the post-Zinédine Zidane era.

Can Cristiano Ronaldo live up to the hype? In recent days I’ve seen Argentina’s Lionel Messi being called the best player in the world in some publications, but that’s impossible given the season that Portugal’s Ronaldo has just completed, leading Manchester United to the English Premier League and Champions League titles. But the talk of Ronaldo’s potential transfer from Man United to Real Madrid has so taken over the news in the Portuguese camp that I fear it could have a negative impact on the Lusitanians. Needless to say, coach Luiz Felipe (Big Phil) Scolari has to turn his team’s attention on the games, although Portugal’s somewhat weak Group A foes (Czech Republic, Switzerland, Turkey) should make things easier.

Which team is this Euro’s Greece? The real answer: nobody (not even the Hellas themselves, who are in Group D). What Greece did in ’04 may not be repeated for decades. But if I have to pick a couple of surprises that could get to the quarterfinals (and have a shot once they get there), I’ll go with the two teams that kept England from qualifying: Croatia, which has been on the upswing under coach Slaven Bilic (and has one of the least-difficult groups in Poland, Austria and Germany) and Russia, which Dutch master Guus Hiddink has turned into a formidable side. See what oil money can buy you these days?

What sort of antics will Marco Materazzi get involved in this time? I’ll admit it: I have a soft spot for The Matrix, whom I spent time with in Milan for a profile in SI last year. Yes, he can be a thug, but he’s an amusing thug in the tradition of Dennis Rodman during his NBA glory days. (Like Rodman, Materazzi has a shtick that overshadows his skills; remember, this guy scored in a World Cup final.) But wouldn’t you know it: Italy has yet another showdown coming with France on June 17, and while Zidane won’t be on the field we still can’t wait to see that one.

Can Germany seal the deal? If Portugal’s Scolari looks just like Gene Hackman, then German coach Joachim Löw is a dead-ringer for Kyle MacLachlan. For many insiders Löw (the top assistant to Jürgen Klinsmann at World Cup ’06) was the brains behind Germany’s run to the semifinals, and he has such a wealth of talent in the middle (Michael Ballack), at outside back (Philipp Lahm and Marcell Jansen) and up front (Miroslav Klose and Mario Gomez) that he may have to find a spot for Lukas Podolski on the left wing. The tournament-favorite Germans have an easy Group B, too, with Austria, Croatia and Poland, but we think the pressure will get to them in the semis against a ready-for-prime-time Portugal side. I’m no big fan of predictions, but what the heck:

Quarterfinals: Portugal beats Croatia, Germany beats Switzerland, Italy beats Russia, Netherlands beats Spain.
Semifinals: Portugal beats Germany, Netherlands beats Italy.
Final: Portugal beats Netherlands.

Check back in the coming days for updates and reactions to the games!
June 5, 2008  11:24 PM ET

Viva Portugal!

June 6, 2008  12:46 AM ET

are u out of ur mind...switzerland will not make it out of the group round...czech republic will...and Netherlands in the FINAL...did u see their games in the qualifying stages?? They had two shady wins against Albania (2-1 and 0-1) and they didnt beat romania which won the group. Out of group c it will be italy and romania to make it out not netherlands.

June 6, 2008  05:10 AM ET

Portugal-Netherlands in the final ? Are you serious ? I am French and I am ready to accept that our team might not make the 1/4. In my opinion it is unlikely but I admit in this group everything is possible. I also agree that Croatia and Russia could be the big surprises even though Croatia is a much better team than Russia traditionnally and might not be labelled as a surprise.
But Portugal over Germany, I really doubt it. And Netherlands over Italy... maybe one of the two if the football gods are in the mood for a good joke but seriously I don't see it happening at all.
I see a France Germany final and Croatia and Russia in the semis. But that is as big a surprise as there will be.
well we'll soon know who was right, a great tournament to all of you !

June 6, 2008  08:33 AM ET

Really, Portugal-Holland? Both teams are not as complete as people think

June 6, 2008  09:27 AM ET

This has to be the worst prediction I have ever seen. Portugal is inconsistent as a national team. They have only qualified for 4 WCs reaching 3rd as their highest positioning. In Euro they have never won either--once again finishing 3rd spot. What makes you think they have a chance this year? C. Ronaldo? Doubtful... while the Portuguese great caramel hope may excel with Man U he is weak with the national team. It's all based on him stepping up and that is a BIG "if".

Concerning the Dutch... wow... just wow. This team MIGHT make it out of the group stage but they will be shut down in the quarters.

My prediction: Finals: Germany vs. Spain. Germany wins.

June 6, 2008  01:11 PM ET

I think your wrong about italy and holland progressing as far as they will...Italy or France is primed for a major collapse this year. Italy, has lost cannavaro and have luca toni is still not in top form and this very website has reported on some of their training camp tensions...not to mention they have the oldest team in the tournament...France is looks good on the back line, except they inexplicably left mexes behind, and their defensive midfield, but henri doesn't have his swagger of old and they are not going to be mentally tough without zidane marshaling the troops...and god help them if the yourngster up fornt doesn't work out cuz if le sulk (anelka) has to make plays they are screwed...and oh yeah, the leading scorer in seria A trez, is nowhere to be seen.
And Holland??? Van persie is not in top form nistelroy was heating up at the end of the season but and kuyt was good at times, but where is the the leader? who is going to step up and provide the big play when they need it? Fashionable choice but misguided I think.

Germany will go far, Croatia will surprize all, spain will beat holland and wait til the semi's to collapse this time. Spain on paper should win this hands down, wonderful strikers and depth up front with torres, villa, guiza, and de la red...but the midfield has no enforcer..they play beautiful soccer its true but they are gonna try to walk it in the goal every time cuz the catalonian midfielders, xavi ect. lack killer instinct. Hell, even their best defender sergio ramos is more famous for his forward runs than his defence. Puyol is clever and a class act but I think he has lost a step, he genuinly looked surprized to see eddie johnson blow past him in the friendly against U.S.A. Plus Aragones is an idiot. RAUL anyone??
Portugal has the opposite problem of spain. Great midfield, absolutely ferocious with deco, ronaldo, and nani queresma ect. but who is gonna strike for them. They have no talent up front, and I don't see anyone stepping up to take the long shot or make the big play when ronaldo goes down. Because lets face it Ronaldo has a target all over him and is gonna get manhandled by every defender that can get a hold of him, meaning he is gonna spend half the time lying on the pitch calling for fouls. They would be smart to do something totally different and run a 4-6-0 with nani and queresma playing wing and deco/ronaldo in the middle with ronaldo cheating foward. and they can put in whoever elso they want to play dual defensive mids cuz the back line is suspect carvalho cant do it alone.

Look for germany to cuise to the finals under the leadership of ballack in the midfield and lahm in the back...Klose will be elusive and lethal as usual. But I agree portugal is finally gonna break though this time. although spain may finally step up, either way the latins win.

GLORY! GLORY! MAN UNITED!

June 6, 2008  01:12 PM ET

and in reference to the bayern fan...portugal finished 2nd in '04 not third remember.

June 6, 2008  02:16 PM ET

Portugal ? Why not. I don't like this team but they often go to the semi-finals (and loss to France) so it is possible. But Netherlands, NO WAY ! The defense sucks and the're not that good. As a French I want to see France-Germany like many French. Croatia and Russia could be the surprising team but Eduardo will be missed for Croatia.

June 6, 2008  04:34 PM ET

FCB82 must not know what he is talking about. Ronaldo played very well in EURO 2004 when he was 19, he was always a threat when on the field and ended up winning a starting spot. WC 2006 he played very well too. He wasnt the dominating player he is in the Premier League but lets see what he does this time..

June 6, 2008  04:35 PM ET

FCB82 must not know what he is talking about. Ronaldo played very well in EURO 2004 when he was 19, he was always a threat when on the field and ended up winning a starting spot. WC 2006 he played very well too. He wasnt the dominating player he is in the Premier League but lets see what he does this time..

June 6, 2008  04:35 PM ET

oui c'est vrai, as a frenchmen you probably would love to see a germany france final but its simply not gonna happen...France has had some quality teams, in fact I in paris in 2000 when they won the euro, but this is team on the decline....you can read my previous posts to see what I mean but for propriety's sake i'll reiterrate.....1) henri is still good, but he has lost his swagger and maybe a bit of his touch, trezeguet is not on the team, neither is mexes which is crazy cuz what he does for roma is awesome. So that leave Makalele, Malouda, Viera as proven players ( and viera is hurt) so that leaves Mathieu Flamini as the only exciting play maker in the midfield....And like I said before le Sulk (Anelka) is a meltdown waiting to happen so if he has to come on late and make play france is in serious trouble.

June 6, 2008  04:42 PM ET

yeah I agree FCB82 is a bit outta the loop cuz he forgot that portugal got 2nd in '04 not 3rd.....but again I reitterate from ealier if he gets frustrated then he is gonna start taking dives, and throwing hissy fits, and as much as I think he is an amazing player and I like him I think the true test will be on deco...will he be able to hold the ball and set up opportunities for ronaldo to make his runs, if he can't step up then portugal is going to fail.

June 6, 2008  06:08 PM ET

Vieira will play the Euro and Flamini is not a play maker (and will be in hollyday). Makelele is absolutely awesome in the midfield and Toulalan and Lassana Diarra are always very good. Rib??ry (best player in Germany) is a far better player than Malouda who does nothing on offense. You also have Benzema on offense (best player in France) so that's very fine even if I agree that Henry lost a step. Mexes should have been selected (a shame he is not) but Trezeguet sucks with France, everytime he plays we lost so he won't be missed. You see this team on the decline, well why not, it's not false but look at the roster and you'll see that not many teams have better players and I'm not worried for the future with guys like Ga??l Clichy, Bakary Sagna, Hatem Ben Arfa, Mexes, Flamini, Lloris, Bodmer etc... who are not selected.

June 6, 2008  06:19 PM ET

Why not Portugal? How 'bout their back line and keeper?

As much as I would enjoy seeing Materazzi play for Italy in the game against France, it will only happen if Italy have already assured qualification to the next round. Italy will start Barzagli and Chiellini as their central defensive pair. They can't afford Materazzi's all too frequent defensive lapses.

Still, though, I love that Italy and France were drawn into the same group both for qualification and in the group stage of the Euros. It has turned into one of the best sports rivalries on the planet. If the two were to meet again in the Semifinals as well, all the better.

June 6, 2008  06:52 PM ET

From my humble point of view Germany vs, France or Holland would be the most exciting finals rivalry to watch but first I??m looking forward to a nice cup of beer with friends and the Czechs kicking some Swiss butt tomorrow. No offense to any Swiss around here :D

As Wahl remarked, this may be the most balaced Euro tourney in recent memory. Everyone has at least a shot at the title. Even the home teams which appear weaker on paper but have the home crowd to support them.

June 6, 2008  06:58 PM ET

Wow, you guys take this so-called sport way too seriously.

June 6, 2008  07:06 PM ET

I know viera will play only a 'gina would miss this tournament. And yes makalele is great in the midfield, defensively, and yes Ribery is in total top form. So I agree with bls_73 when he says that the future is very bright for France and they will have a decent showing but they won't make it past the quaters. Their coach is smart tactically and they have experience but they don't have a man up front who will step up when the going gets tough, like I said henri is great and I don't think his career is totally over but lets face it when it comes down to the 75th or 80th minute and it's tied 0-0 against a team like spain or portugal or germany they aren't going to have the fresh legs or old general, like zidane, who is gonna push them through, precisely because the stupid coach left off some of the best young talent in europe, like mexes. It's no offense against the french, although I will say they aren't the most exciting team to watch, but they simply don't have the mental toughness this year.

June 6, 2008  07:11 PM ET

rjsam77.......first of all I am an american and I follow baseball and football just as seriously as any other sport if not more so than soccer, but for you to pipe in with a piddly little "so-called sport" shows two things: 1) that you're ignorant and probably american. 2) you some how stumbled into the wrong part of the website cuz serious international soccer is the some of the most entertaining, diffiicult, athletic and rivalry filled events in the world. And your right it's not sport, its war so take your **** little mouth elsewhere

June 6, 2008  07:13 PM ET

btw j11forbes, If you read above I have been touting certain aspects of the portuguese team but you would be wise not to talk about their back line.....carvalho is great the rest is,....not so great.

 
June 6, 2008  07:29 PM ET

I think even predicting that Holland will make it out of the group stage is incredibly ridiculous. There are literally advertisements in Europe for Fiat cars, advertising their speed, saying, "be home quicker than the Dutch team." If the Dutch make it to the quarterfinals, I will legitimately worship SI and never question them again. However, as it stands, I think that not being in Europe has addled SI's understanding of European soccer.

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