It's going to be one lucky Friday the 13th for some college basketball program. That's because Harrison Barnes, the 6-foot-7 forward from Ames, Iowa, who is widely considered to be the No. 1 prospect in the senior class, will announce his college choice at 4 p.m. on ESPNU.
Barnes' list is down to six schools. They are, in alphabetical order: Duke, Iowa State, Kansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma and UCLA. The question of where Barnes will end up has titillated recruitniks for months now. So I burned up the phone lines on Thursday to see if I could read the tea leaves.
Turns out, it was hard to find the tea leaves, much less read them. Since it is against NCAA rules for coaches to comment on high school players before they sign a National Letter of Intent, I can't tell you whom I spoke with, but here's a sampling of the comments I got from people who had, shall we say, direct knowledge of Barnes's recruitment:
"He's the greatest poker player of all time."
"I have no idea what he's going to do. Nobody does. If anyone tells you they know where he's going, they're guessing."
"I've never seen a situation where a family kept things this close to the vest. I'm going to find out the same way you are."
So, there you have it: Nobody knows anything. But I did glean some bits of conventional wisdom I can pass along. For starters, Duke and North Carolina seem to be the front-runners. They're both elite programs and great academic institutions, which appeals to Barnes' brainy inclinations. (He's an excellent student with designs on being a titan in business when he's through playing.) Duke has an "in" because Kyrie Irving, the guard from New Jersey who committed to the Blue Devils last month, is close friends with Barnes. I heard they call each other "brothers." North Carolina, however, has a similar asset in Kendall Marshall, a 6-foot-4 point guard from Virginia who has committed to North Carolina and who is also super-tight with Barnes.
Even so, no one I spoke with really believes those relationships will carry much weight. "He's going to do what's best for him and nobody else," one person said. "He's a different kind of kid."
Moving down the list, I'd say the people at Kansas are very pessimistic, while the folks at UCLA appear to be overly optimistic. "UCLA thinks it's between them and Duke," one source said. Oklahoma has done well to hang in this long, but if Barnes puts on a Sooners cap today, that would be the biggest shock of all.
Then there's Iowa State, which is hoping against hope that Barnes will turn down all those storied programs and opt to stay at home. Barnes' mother is a receptionist in Iowa State's music department, and she and Barnes's sister, who is in fifth grade, have been at every game he has played in the last three years. Barnes is also high school teammates with the son of Cyclones coach Greg McDermott.
Still, Barnes has made no secret that he wants to win a championship, and that won't happen at Iowa State. So it looks like this has come down to what so much in college hoops comes down to: Duke versus North Carolina.
On the one hand, Barnes's mother has always been a huge Carolina fan. She taped Michael Jordan's games when he played, and she gave both Harrison and his younger sister the middle name of Jordan in honor of His Airness. MJ is Barnes's hero, too, so you can imagine the impression it made when he met Jordan on his visit to Chapel Hill. And unlike Duke, North Carolina has a top-flight business school for undergraduates.
On the other hand, Harrison has shown a deep affinity for Duke and especially Mike Krzyzewski. On top of his official visit to Durham, Barnes also took three unofficial visits to Duke, each time showing up in Duke gear. He also wore a Duke shirt during Krzyzewski's home visit to Ames. He is a serious, grounded kid whose game and personality has evoked comparisons to Shane Battier. Though he has the talent to potentially leave for the NBA after his freshman season, Barnes has spoken of staying in school long enough to make good progress toward earning his degree. One person I spoke with described Harrison's mindset thusly: "He's very confident, even arrogant. It's the kind of arrogance that makes you think of Duke, and I mean that in a good way. I could see him thinking, 'The guy who coaches Kobe [at the Olympics] coaches me. The guy who coaches LeBron [James] coaches me."
Early this summer, the buzz on the recruiting circuit held that Duke was the school to beat, but one person I spoke with believes the fact that Barnes has gone this long without making a decision is a bad sign for the Blue Devils. "I thought Coach K had it locked up, but the longer this has dragged out, the more I've got a feeling he's leaning towards Carolina," he said. Then again, maybe Barnes is just stringing us along to keep us interested. He even said, at first, that he would wait until the spring signing period to make his choice, but he wisely concluded that that would create too much of a circus. Everyone I spoke with on Thursday expressed some consternation the kid is playing the game this way, but you have to give him credit: He has our full attention. As one source put it, "Sometimes silence is the best marketing."
That silence will finally be broken this afternoon. So where is Barnes going to go to school? Well, I have to answer ... if I really, really have to answer ...
I'll say it's Duke. But I'm guessing.
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Comments (30) Add A Comment
if HB commits to Duke , We will become a national powerhouse once more , haha yes!
Duke Nation to take the title in '11 , suck it Tarholes
oh and 1st
dukie4lyfe
Richmond , VA
Total Comments (1)
Seth can you tell us why Kansas is so pessimistic? Good school, going to be competing for a title every year, close to home, do you know what happend on his visits to cause the low expectation for him signing with KU?
BearsFanstuckinMN
Chanhassen , MN
Total Comments (11)
i'm surprise that coach k knows where ames iowa is
dr fantasy
Milwaukee, WI
Total Comments (52)
dukie4lyfe: you can see the real difference between carolina and dook in your own comments. carolina is a national powerhouse with championship potential every year. dook has fallen off the map. it is laughable how dook fans are going all in for hb. it is truly a great to see how far dook has fallen from grace, especially when its fanbase puts so much emphasis on landing one player. you will never see carolina fans calling a recruit "savior." how pathetic.
Carolina212
Austin , TX
Total Comments (1)
Bill Self said yesterday that he would not be watching the announcement. He had to dance around a bit because he cannot speak directly about recruits, but he said, "If I felt like we were getting good news, I???d watch it."
So, Self thinks KU is out of it.
I think it is Duke, but anyone who has more than a guess is making stuff up.
-JE
JasonDuke
Atlanta , GA
Total Comments (1)
My hopes would be UNC, especially since he's talking about winning a title in college. The records speak for themself-only Billy Donovan is the other coach who's won 2 titles this current decade other than Roy Williams. He's gonna have alot of talent around him at UNC during this period as well since Roy has been recruiting his tail off since coming back to the Hill.....we shall see though
jscott1026
Winston Salem , NC
Total Comments (45)
I guess finishing in the top 10 every year and getting to the sweet 16 regularly is "fallen from grace"?
Carolina fans, as always, are delusional.
Duuuuuuuke
Raleigh , NC
Total Comments (92)
top 10 every year and getting to the sweet 16 regularly? just like a dookie to not let the facts get in the way of a good story. looks like the dookies are delusional.
How long will it take Coach K's back to start hurting if Barnes doesn't commit to Duke today?
charlotte1109
Charlotte , NC
Total Comments (1)
Final AP Top 25 Rankings for Duke:
2006-2007: Not Ranked, Lost in 1st Round of NCAA Tourny
2007-2008: 16th, Lost in 2nd Round of NCAA Tourny
2008-2009: 11th, lost in Sweet 16
So, the only person who would be "delusional" here is you when you say "finishing in the top 10 every year" and "sweet 16 regularly"
heels9706
Chapel Hill , NC
Total Comments (2)
"I guess finishing in the top 10 every year and getting to the sweet 16 regularly is "fallen from grace"?"
duke has only been to the S16 once in the last five years. duke fans don't even know facts about their own team...no surprise. it is doubtful that duke will get very far in march again in 2010.
rfgindurham
Total Comments (101)
Actually, Duke finished 9th in the 2008 Final AP Top 25 and 6th in the 2009 Final AP Top 25.
mbsblue
Tampa , FL
Total Comments (1)
rfgindurham, the "facts" on Duke are that they have been to the S16 3 times in the last 5 years, not once. And they have been 10 times in the last 12 years, which probably does meet the definition of "regularly". UNC has certainly been better than Duke for several years now, and may well be again this season, but I think number 7's post is factually pretty accurate.
London Calling
Total Comments (1)
It's all relative folks. No matter how Duke finished the last 5 years, one thing we know for sure, UNC did better (except maybe 2006).
Kuester
Chapel Hill , NC
Total Comments (1)
Added to some of the young talent Howland is developing out west, UCLA could be very dangerous if he signs there.
damienw
Kingston , WA
Total Comments (214)
These comments show why this is the greatest rivalry in college basketball. However, there is one huge difference in the communities. Carolina grads spends their lives trying to get back to Chapel Hill. Dookies leave Durham as fast as they can.
squidlock
Dallas , TX
Total Comments (7)
There are going to be a lot of disappointed blue bloods around 3:20 pm central time today. The kid is staying home, and ISU WILL contend for championships starting next year.
SoCy
Lucas , IA
Total Comments (1)
Seth, didn't you go to Duke? Nice prediction.
TScott
Houston, TX
Total Comments (2)
It's a longshot, but I hope he comes to Westwood. I read a great diary of his visit to UCLA and came away very impressed with the young man. He reminded me a lot of Kevin Love in terms of maturity, outlook, and disposition. He reveled in meeting Coach Wooden, and he spoke glowingly of his experience. Whether he chooses UCLA, Duke, North Carolina, Kansas, or whoever, I wish him the best of luck. I'll be a fan of his wherever he lands.
ishXdavid
Torrance , CA
Total Comments (53)
Put down the Bong i believe you have had enough!
TBOOIE123
Summerville, SC
Total Comments (33)
He certainly is going to break some hearts today irregardless. (sp)
TBOOIE123
Summerville, SC
Total Comments (33)
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