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<blog-post>
  <updated-at type="datetime">2008-12-20T12:05:34-05:00</updated-at>
  <title>Mets waiting to talk to Lowe, Perez</title>
  <published-at type="datetime">2008-12-19T14:45:39-05:00</published-at>
  <comments-count type="integer">21</comments-count>
  <created-at type="datetime">2008-12-19T14:45:39-05:00</created-at>
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      <comment>
        <quotable>
          <created-at>2008-12-20T10:50:33-05:00</created-at>
          <user>
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            <state>CA</state>
            <display-name>YankeeDreaming</display-name>
            <city>Lancaster                   </city>
            <id type="integer">638985</id>
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          <body>Truth of the matter...it comes down to a team pleasing her fans. Without us there is no team. I am very pleased that our team is moving forward.</body>
          <id type="integer">3721969</id>
        </quotable>
        <created-at>2008-12-20T12:05:34-05:00</created-at>
        <user>
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          <state>ME</state>
          <display-name>HomeRunApple</display-name>
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        <quoted-text>Truth of the matter...it comes down to a team pleasing her fans. Without us there is no team. I am very pleased that our team is moving forward.</quoted-text>
        <commentable-sequence type="integer">21</commentable-sequence>
        <body>This is true, but if I were a Yankee fan I would not be thrilled about the Burnett signing, he is not worth that much and he's fragile (and thanks to the Yanks for raising the market price on that seconbd tier).</body>
        <id type="integer">3722301</id>
      </comment>
      <comment>
        <quotable>
        </quotable>
        <created-at>2008-12-20T10:50:33-05:00</created-at>
        <user>
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          <display-name>YankeeDreaming</display-name>
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        <body>Truth of the matter...it comes down to a team pleasing her fans. Without us there is no team. I am very pleased that our team is moving forward.</body>
        <id type="integer">3721969</id>
      </comment>
      <comment>
        <quotable>
        </quotable>
        <created-at>2008-12-20T10:48:36-05:00</created-at>
        <user>
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          <display-name>YankeeDreaming</display-name>
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        <body>Met's are a mess</body>
        <id type="integer">3721949</id>
      </comment>
      <comment>
        <quotable>
          <created-at>2008-12-19T16:41:31-05:00</created-at>
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            <display-name>mike ciavolino</display-name>
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          <quoted-text>Mets are a mess</quoted-text>
          <commentable-sequence type="integer">4</commentable-sequence>
          <body>yes and the yanks are a model organization, is that it?

You've outspent every other team in baseball by $60 million dollars in 2004, 2005 and 2006 which has been good enough to get by the hapless o's, jays and rays and lost in the first round. last year $200 mill and you didn't even make the playoffs. 
 
Yankee27 - you're the same guy who thinks every team in baseball wants to give you their best players for cano, melky, and ian kennedy right? 

Yankee27 - Fans of teams that finished IN 3RD PLACE with the LEAGUE'S HIGHEST PAYROLL should not be critisizing anyone else's team.</body>
          <id type="integer">3716880</id>
        </quotable>
        <created-at>2008-12-20T07:07:57-05:00</created-at>
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          <state>NJ</state>
          <display-name>Triple5reaL</display-name>
          <city>Jersey City                 </city>
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        <quoted-text>yes and the yanks are a model organization, is that it?You've outspent every other team in baseball by $60 million dollars in 2004, 2005 and 2006 which has been good enough to get by the hapless o's, jays and rays and lost in the first round. last year $200 mill and you didn't even make the playoffs.  Yankee27 - you're the same guy who thinks every team in baseball wants to give you their best players for cano, melky, and ian kennedy right? Yankee27 - Fans of teams that finished IN 3RD PLACE with the LEAGUE'S HIGHEST PAYROLL should not be critisizing anyone else's team.</quoted-text>
        <commentable-sequence type="integer">18</commentable-sequence>
        <body>Yes the Yankees Have had the highest payroll but so what! All that means is the Yankees have had some bad contracts. They finished third Last year big Deal! 13 seasons with atleast making the playoffs and wining 4 championships in that span is better than nearly all of the other teams in the majors. I'm not saying the Yankees are God's Gift to Sports but then again....
Other than that I can't critique the Mets they are a pretty decent team.</body>
        <id type="integer">3721575</id>
      </comment>
      <comment>
        <quotable>
        </quotable>
        <created-at>2008-12-20T06:52:59-05:00</created-at>
        <user>
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          <display-name>jb56</display-name>
          <city>Indianapolis                </city>
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        <body>METS fan here....love the bullpen moves, but let's face it....Santana, Maine, and Pelfrey and two nobodies is not a &amp;quot;championship&amp;quot; rotation...... the additon of another solid pitcher is a must....knowing that the Mets would have to clear out the entire farm system to trade for a Peavy (not happening), I think the best option(s) would be to land Lowe and then try to get Marquis to be the #5...
At worst this would cost $23 million for nest year for both guys (not bad when you consider the Indians are on the hook for $10+ for next year for &amp;quot;closer/starter&amp;quot; Kerry &amp;quot;Wooden Arm&amp;quot; Wood

So the rotation would be:
Santana, Lowe, Maine, Pelfrey, Marquis....w/ a killer 8th/9th inning combo to nail the door shut in Putz/K-Rod
-With a stellar offense, this could be the formula that ends the 22 year drought in Flushing

-Lowe: I know the guy is 35 (not too old for a pitcher), but he has had 4 straight seasons w/ an ERA in the 3's......I would feel much more comfortable with a 3 year/50 million dollar deal w/ team option for 4th than the above mentioned 4yr/66 million
+
-Marquis: nothing to write home about here as this guy could not even sniff the #3/#4 spot on any team claiming to have a legit rotation, but definitely not a bad #5 starter option for a team with what appears to be a now solid bullpen....for about $5 million next year you could get an inning eater who has avg'd 192 innings/yr (very important stat) for the last 5 years while posting an avg. ERA of 4.58 (best ERA over this stretch was 3.71, worst 6.02- I say pray/be satisfied w/ around 4.50 ERA)</body>
        <id type="integer">3721602</id>
      </comment>
      <comment>
        <quotable>
        </quotable>
        <created-at>2008-12-20T00:35:57-05:00</created-at>
        <user>
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          <display-name>nyj01827</display-name>
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        <body>The Mets came into the off-season with 30 million shed off their payroll. K-Rod's 12.3 million and Tatis added 14 million. The Putz trade only added 3 million to next season's payroll and the Mets shaved 2 million in the Schoenweis trade (they paid 1.6 million of it), so they still got 15 million to use. Their arbitration cases in Church, Maine, Reed, Feliciano and Sanchez may jump the payroll 4 to 5 million too. The Mets payroll increase by about 12 percent in between '07 &amp;amp; '08. If it were to jump 12 percent too, it'd go from 137.4 million last year to about 154 mllion. That'd leave them with about 28 million to spend. Lowe would cost like 15 million per year (more years/less money or more money/less years), Marquis or Redding 6 million and a decent left-handed specialist like Shouse or Guardado 2.5 million. Or if they want to spend more, Beimel or Ohman may cost like 4 million. Either way, they have enough money to fill all their needs. Hopefully Omar continues to play his hand right.

One other thing to keep in mind is that the Mets lost two draft picks when they signed K-Rod. If the Mets were to not re-sign Ollie, they'd get back similar picks. Than they could sign Randy Wolf who wasn't offered arbitration and won't require any compensation. The problem with Wolf is he's only averaged to start 19 games a year in the last 4 seasons, but he still may be worth it on a 2 year/18 million type deal. So that's an option worth considering. This is probably why they consider him a better option than Garland. Overall, Ollie has the most incentive to signing beyond Lowe. He's better. But he's not reliable. He can turn into a bad mess in less than a month. That's not what we need. The ceiling for him has to be 3 year/36 million. He's only worth bringing back because he's young, healthy and left-handed.

I wrote some more about Marquis on here.
http://nymets2009.blogspot.com/</body>
        <id type="integer">3720738</id>
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      <comment>
        <quotable>
        </quotable>
        <created-at>2008-12-20T00:31:33-05:00</created-at>
        <user>
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        <body>The Mets should look to sign Derek Lowe. The question is who's out there to give him the money and/or years he wants? The Yankees will probably re-sign Pettite. They probably won't want to add another starting pitcher to a lucrative deal. If Pettite doesn't re-sign, they'll probably sign Ben Sheets to a 2 year/28 million type deal. The Braves aren't that interested in Lowe. And the Cubs probably won't be interested in signing Lowe because he's not the premier pitcher Peavy is. The Phillies re-signed Moyer to a 2 year deal and signed Park. It's pretty much either the Mets, Red Sox or a suprise team. Suprise teams may include the Brewers, Cardinals and Blue Jays. The Brewers lost out on CC and may lose out on Sheets. It's not like they haven't signed SP to lucrative deals either. They signed Suppan to a 4 year/40 million deal two years ago. They also were close to signing Cordero last season. They offered Milwaukee 4 year/40 million, but he signed with the Reds for 7 million more. And they've got Gagne 1 year/10 million off the books now too, so they may pursue Fuentes.

Lowe won't get 4 years. He'll probably get three years. This can draw more teams into the market though. He wants 4 year/66 million the same way how K-Rod wanted 5 year/75 million, Perez seeks 5 year/70 million, Garland seeks 4 year/50 million and Wolf seeks 3 year/30 million. Look at what K-Rod got though. Most pitchers are not going to get what they want though. CC and Burnett cashed in at the right time.

Expect Lowe to get a 3 year/50 million type deal. Maybe a team or vesting option.  Marquis has made 158 starts and has averaged 192 innings per season over the past 5 seasons. He's as healthy as Lowe, Perez and Garland. He's low-risk since he's only here for one year. It'll probably take them to eat more than half of Marquis 9.8 million salary. I'd guess about 6 million. The Cubs would have to eat like 3.5 to 4 million.</body>
        <id type="integer">3720710</id>
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      <comment>
        <quotable>
          <created-at>2008-12-19T21:16:11-05:00</created-at>
          <user>
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            <display-name>MCGUNNZ</display-name>
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          <body>Wait you are telling me you like Lowe at 66 mil over four years?  Thats obsene.  I cant justify paying a forty year old 16 mil in his last year especially when at that time he will no longer be a #2 starter.  Lowe is very solid, but why pay a guy for two good years and two less than mediocre years.  Lowe's numbers will only decline and he will only be more of an injury risk as he ages.  Yes he has a rubber arm, but age certainly doesn't help and a rubber arm doesn't mean he wont pop a hammie of strain a quad.  

Perez on the other hand is 27 and has plenty of upside.  He could remain a # 3 starter, but could very well blossom into a #2.  Also, the NL East division is stacked with left handed hitters (utley, howard, mccann, Ibanez).  The Mets need a lefty that can dominate dangerous left handed hitters and Perez has proven effective against those hitters.  he can be erratic, but he is brilliant at times and he is a true asset.  He will also give you 30+ starts, 200 + innings and yes three or four starts where he walks 12, but I would take his potential any day and I hope Minaya feels the same way.</body>
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        <created-at>2008-12-19T22:43:09-05:00</created-at>
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        <quoted-text>Lowe's numbers will only decline and he will only be more of an injury risk as he ages. Yes he has a rubber arm, but age certainly doesn't help and a rubber arm doesn't mean he wont pop a hammie of strain a quad. </quoted-text>
        <commentable-sequence type="integer">14</commentable-sequence>
        <body>Thats a good point. I'm just tired of Perez giving me ulcers. True he was awesome in 06, but he also was aweful with the season on the line against Florida. He walks a TON of batters and can be a head case. I've heard about his upside for so long I'm starting to feel like what we've seen is what he is. I wouldn't mind having him back, but I want to see them add a bonafide #2, instead of hoping someone will rise into that slot. (and I think of all those guys Pelfry is more likely to than Perez).</body>
        <id type="integer">3719672</id>
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      <comment>
        <quotable>
        </quotable>
        <created-at>2008-12-19T22:34:23-05:00</created-at>
        <user>
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          <display-name>Tebow Rocks</display-name>
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        <body>The Mets know that with the additions of KRod and Putz that all they need this year is for their starters to give them 6-7 innings and the game is over.  Now that Santana is no longer afraid to pitch deep into games, and Pelfrey is a beast and has the stamina to give them length, if they can get another innings eater like Lowe, they will be really touhg to beat.  Forget the offense right now, we scored plenty of runs last year to win, our putrid pen is what cost us the playoffs and now that we fixed that problem, lets spend the rest of our budget on quality straters.  Sign Perez AND Lowe and we win the division easily.</body>
        <id type="integer">3719599</id>
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      <comment>
        <quotable>
        </quotable>
        <created-at>2008-12-19T22:23:04-05:00</created-at>
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          <display-name>tellitlikeitisn't</display-name>
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        <body>Mets should sign Kenny Lofton!!!</body>
        <id type="integer">3719571</id>
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  </comments-page>
  <body>&lt;p&gt;The Mets are waiting for agent &lt;strong&gt;Scott Boras&lt;/strong&gt; to finish off the &lt;strong&gt;Mark Teixeira&lt;/strong&gt; Sweepstakes before they seriously engage Boras in negotiations for their top two pitching targets, &lt;strong&gt;Derek Lowe&lt;/strong&gt; and &lt;strong&gt;Oliver Perez&lt;/strong&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Mets are hoping to sign one top pitcher. Lowe appears to be their first choice on the Category A list, followed by their own Perez. Third on that list is &lt;strong&gt;Randy Wolf&lt;/strong&gt;. Mets people love Lowe's consistency and durability but will try Perez if the price on Lowe is too high (figures being mentioned last week at the Winter Meetings were $66 million for four years).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;After the Mets try to secure one pitcher from Category A, they will try to sign a pitcher from Category B, which is the less costly list. Pitchers on that list include free agents &lt;strong&gt;Freddy Garcia&lt;/strong&gt; and &lt;strong&gt;Tim Redding&lt;/strong&gt;, plus Cubs starter&lt;strong&gt; Jason Marquis&lt;/strong&gt;, who's available in trade with the Cubs believed willing to pay about half his $9.5-million salary.&lt;/p&gt;</body>
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    <display-name>Jon Heyman</display-name>
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