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- 09:41 PM ET 01.10
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Observations from the press box at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro ...
1. Even though the Las Vegas spread likely won't reflect it, the Jets should be thankful they're playing the Chargers next week -- not the Colts. Here's why:
*The Jets defense matches up well against a Chargers offense that can't run the ball (ranked 31st in the NFL this season), since they're more vulnerable against a strong running team. New York had the best passing defense, by far, and just the eighth-best rushing defense.
*The Chargers have some issues against the run since Jamal Williams got hurt, so the Jets might be able to hold the ball longer and keep it out of Philip Rivers' hands.
*San Diego lost to the Ravens, who are basically a carbon copy of the Jets.
*The Chargers could be overconfident against a Jets team they don't know very well. Indy wouldn't have that problem.
I'm not making a Namath-like prediction, because if the Jets fall behind at all they don't have a chance, but they're a bad matchup for the Chargers.
2. The Patriots haven't won a Super Bowl in six years and the buzzards are circling. Ravens receiver Kelley Washington ran off the field chanting "The era is over" in the hallways of Gillette Stadium. Washington wasn't alone. Lots of reporters posed the question to both Baltimore and New England players after the game. Dynasties fade ... but this one isn't quite done yet. They overcame a lot this season and still lost a few games they should have won. If the Patriots can go to Indy and outplay the Colts, they're going to be really dangerous after fixing some of their gaping holes. Coach Bill Belichick has some draft picks to play with, and next season, a fully healthy Tom Brady should be more consistent.
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- 11:34 PM ET 01.03
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Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images
A weekly NFL column that heads in the opposite direction of your average pro football analysis.
1. The Jets probably don't have a chance to win more than one game in the postseason, but they have plenty of reasons to be excited about their future. They have the best defense in the NFL this year and Rex Ryan hasn't been able to truly recreate the unit he had in Baltimore. Wait until he gets his fast outside linebacker type (perhaps Adalius Thomas?) and starts to rush the passer more effectively. With cornerback Darrelle Revis shutting down half the field, they should have one of the better defenses in recent memory next year.
2. Momentum, especially the Week 17 variety, is overrated. After the Cowboys lost to the Giants in Week 13, a defensive Wade Phillips told reporters that December records were overrated because the last couple of seasons saw teams overcome late-season difficulties to reach the Super Bowl. He pointed to the 2008 Cardinals, who were awful in the second half, and the '07 Giants, who lost two of their last three (they did, however, play the then-undefeated Patriots tough). He could have lumped in the '06 Colts, who lost three of their last five with Peyton Manning playing the whole time.
So forget the Cowboys' three-game win streak, the Packers' win over the Cardinals, the Jets' blowout of the Bengals, the Saints' three game-slide and the Colts' two losses. Based on recent history, the hot team doesn't have a significant edge.
3. The Cowboys are the hottest team in the NFC -- and perhaps the most talented -- and embarrassed Philadelphia on Sunday 24-0. But Dallas faces a huge hurdle to start the postseason. Philly's Andy Reid is undefeated in playoff openers and usually has the Eagles fired up after a loss. Wade Phillips has never won a playoff game. The Eagles have some major concerns -- the exchange between Donovan McNabb and backup center Nick Cole and their inability to pressure Tony Romo. But on paper, Philly has the most important edge -- coaching.
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- 12:05 AM ET 12.28
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A weekly NFL column that heads in the opposite direction of your average pro football analysis.
1. How can anyone rip Jim Caldwell for ignoring a largely meaningless historical milestone to do what he thought was best for his team? Most coaches are praised for tunnel vision when it comes to trying to win the Super Bowl. Bill Belichick would have been lauded for that kind of cold-blooded strategy. The same pundits that rip Caldwell this week would have gone after him twice as hard if the Colts lost a player to injury or looked fatigued like the 2007 Pats.
If New England went 16-0 two years ago, and the Colts and Saints both got to 13-0 this season, it's obviously not that hard to do anymore. And Indy and New Orleans enter the postseason as very slim favorites, unlike the '07 Pats. For those lamenting the missed historical opportunity, you probably won't have to wait long for another team to have a shot at a perfect season.
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- 11:40 PM ET 12.20
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A weekly NFL column that heads in the opposite direction of your average pro football analysis.
1. Why is everyone so shocked the Titans have won seven out of eight? They were a 13-3 team last season and have the same nucleus. They outplayed several teams early in the season, but lost because of a few bad mistakes here and there. Yes, they lost 59-0 to the Patriots in Week 6, but that was an out-of-control snow game that taught us nothing. Since they inserted Vince Young as a starter, they've beaten a group of bad or middle-of-the road teams they should beat. Their one win over a team that currently has a winning record was over the inconsistent Cardinals. Too many people are characterizing their turnaround as miraculous, but it's not surprising if you look at how their second-half schedule panned out.
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- 12:32 AM ET 12.14
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Jim Cowsert/Icon SMI
A weekly NFL column that heads in the opposite direction of your average pro football analysis.
1. On paper, the Cowboys don't seem to have much of a chance against the 13-0 Saints at the Superdome next Saturday. They've lost two in a row, are just 3-3 on the road and they can't play in December. But this game is indoors, so at least the Cowboys won't fall apart in bad weather. And Dallas is better than the two teams New Orleans has struggled to beat the last two weeks -- Washington and Atlanta. The Cowboys are on a losing streak, but they significantly out-gained the Giants two weeks ago, and hung in there with the red-hot Chargers on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Saints' signature win this half of the season was over the Patriots, who are now clearly just a shadow of their Super Bowl teams. The Saints have hinted they'll play all out the rest of the regular season. But they haven't given anywhere near 100 percent effort the last two weeks. Watch out for a possible stunner on the NFL Network if you're lucky enough to get it.
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