In The Paint's All-American Hoops Blog

Talor Battle
Penn State's Talor Battle/AP

By Andy Glockner

Unlike last week, there were some wild swings in this week's Seed Report and some very big names took the brunt of the sea change. Here's what we know this week:

1) There still appear to be seven realistic candidates for No. 1 seeds and the two-seed line is loaded.
2) Five at-large teams were dropped from this week's bracket, with South Carolina, USC, LSU, Boston College and Penn State replacing Miami, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, Wisconsin and Michigan.
3) The SEC, statistically one of the worst major conferences of the 64-team era, is building a scenario where it could get five bids. That would be the same as the Pac-10 and Big 12 this week.
4) There is a pretty significant dropoff at the 2/3 border and the four-seed line has been really difficult to fill with teams that feel the part.

The champions from one-bid conferences have their league name in parentheses. Here's the multi-bid conference bid breakdown:

Big East: 8
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 6
Big 12: 5
Pac-10: 5
SEC: 5
MWC: 3
A-10: 2
WCC: 2

No. 1 Seeds
Connecticut: Really playing well right now, but watch the monster meeting with Louisville tonight.
Duke: Almost took Wake to OT; but their athleticism is still an issue against elite teams.
Oklahoma: Statistically an elite offense that gets to the free throw line a ton.
Pittsburgh: Nice when your second-best player goes for a 20-20.

No. 2 Seeds
Louisville:  Tons of TOs on occasion make you nervous, but the D doesn't.
North Carolina: Escaped Tallahassee with a W, but still not hitting on all cylinders.
Wake Forest: Deacons are young, but championship teams don't lose at Ga. Tech.
Marquette: The Golden Eagles have earned this spot, but they'd be the preferred two to draw.

No. 3 Seeds
Xavier: Such a fun team to watch, even if the offense isn't the same as last season's.
Michigan State: Two sloppy home losses are pushing the Spartans down the grid.
Butler (Horizon): They're a legit three-seed when you look around at the other options.
Clemson: Good win at VT keeps the Tigers here; Duke comes in on Wednesday.

No. 4 Seeds
Memphis (C-USA): Tigers are truly in a league of their own in C-USA.
Washington: Road split was good enough to stay with others falling around them.
UCLA: Bruins and Huskies have very similar profiles, hence the similar positions.
Texas: This feels high, but there's no better candidate when you look around.

No. 5 Seeds
Syracuse: Schedule should ease off some and allow the Orange to stabilize.
Illinois: The improved offense is struggling; six straight with 67 or fewer points.
Kansas: Eager to see the maturing Jayhawks play someone in the Big 12.
Florida State: Lose your only game and move up? That's how it works sometimes.

No. 6 Seeds
Missouri: If Texas is a four and Kansas is a five, this is correct for the Tigers.
West Virginia: Good team that needs to better close the deal in big spots.
Gonzaga: Got a good break against St. Mary's and looks set to roll now.
Purdue: Boilers probably were underseeded last week, but not this one.

No. 7 Seeds
Arizona State: Big drop for Sun Devils after losing two at home, but their schedule is decent.
Minnesota: Showed it's defensive chops against Illinois; but there are more tests to come.
Tennessee: Played best game in ages against Florida, gets nominal SEC seed throne.
Villanova: Got the marquee win its resume lacked by handling Pitt.

No. 8 Seeds
Florida: Must keep Nick Calathes out of foul trouble against comparable opponents.
Ohio State: One of the season's biggest yo-yo teams makes sense in an 8/9 game.
Utah: Staking claim as the best team in the MWC and seeded accordingly.
Davidson (SoCon): Still perfect in league play; a rematch with feisty C of C is upcoming.

No. 9 Seeds

Dayton: With Xavier getting all the A-10 pub, this is a really quiet 20-2.
Utah State (WAC): If 20-2 is quiet, what do you call the Aggies' 20-1 mark?
UNLV: The Rebels had a quiet week with only Air Force (0-7 MWC) to handle.
Kentucky: Despite two losses, the Cats' profile isn't much worse than other SEC teams.

No. 10 Seeds
Cal: The weekend in L.A was a washout the Bears need to rally past quickly.
South Carolina: From out to a 10-seed, but this seems to be where they fit.
Georgetown: They're 3-6 in the Big East and have lost seven of nine. Where would you put them?
Baylor: With the upcoming schedule, the Bears will move one way or the other.

No. 11 Seeds
Virginia Tech: Couldn't close the deal vs. Clemson and then compounded things at BC.
Siena (MAAC): Desperately trying to atone for nonleague misses; auto bid's still safest route.
St. Mary's: Everything's on hold until Patty Mills comes back, but they can't tank.
USC: Quietly just a game back of UCLA and UW, playing well at the Galen Center.

No. 12 Seeds
LSU: If it pans out this way, the SEC would get five teams in. Crazy.
Boston College: The Eagles have earned their way in with some solid wins.
Penn State: Six and three in the Big Ten with a win at Michigan State? Good enough for now.
BYU: Hanging on right now for third in the MWC pecking order and just in the bracket.

No. 13 Seeds
Buffalo (MAC): Miami (Ohio) has better computer numbers but not better talent or record.
Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley): Holding a shocking three-game lead atop the Valley at 10-1.
Northeastern (CAA): Won a three-way round-robin with Mason and VCU for this spot.
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt): Keeping in form in the Sun Belt and gaining "Louisville points."

No. 14 Seeds
Stephen F. Austin (Southland): Lumberjacks remain after TAMU-CC suffered first league L.
Cornell (Ivy): Ivy leader is now 4-0; only other unbeaten is a modest Princeton squad.
VMI (Big South): The Big South tourney will be very competitive, so Keydets are no lock.
North Dakota State (Summit): Making the NCAAs would validate the Bison's transitional path.

No. 15 Seeds
Vermont (America East): Now the best team is officially leading the league.
Weber State (Big Sky): Still slightly in front in a competitive Big Sky.
E. Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun): Beat co-leader Jacksonville, has a better RPI.
American (Patriot): Holy Cross has an extra W, but the Eagles are more talented.

No. 16 Seeds
Long Beach State (Big West): Losing to UC Riverside doesn't help, but still the league leader.
Robert Morris (Northeast): Still comfortably leading the league.
Morehead State (Ohio Valley): Bumped Austin Peay from this week's bracket.
Morgan State (MEAC): Still on top despite a home loss to Hampton.
Alabama State (SWAC): The Hornets deserve credit for actually being a .500 team overall.

Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Miami, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Wisconsin, Providence, San Diego State

Check out Andy Glockner's Bubble Watch every Monday.


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