WEEKLY LESSON: EXPANDING OUR HORIZONS
This season, we talk a lot about the same seven teams. The Big East powers: UConn, Pitt, Louisville. The ACC powers: North Carolina, Duke and (occasionally) Wake Forest. Big 12 king Oklahoma. If someone were to conduct a survey of all national-pundit writing on college basketball in '08-09, I wouldn't be surprised if it said 75 percent focused on that septet. They were the top seven teams in the AP poll last week. They've won big games. They've earned the right to be covered. I'll be in Hartford tonight to see Pitt-UConn, and write even more about them. But a good question I like to ask at this time of year is, Are We Forgetting About Anybody? Because it's our fault if we let a good team sneak up on us in the NCAA tournament.
My goal for for Sunday was to reorder the AP's Top 25 by how they've performed, statistically, in conference games. This required taking teams' efficiency margins from conference games only, and then figuring out a way to weight them based on conference strength. The efficiency margins (points scored per possession minus points allowed per possession) came from bbstate.com's conference-splits database, and I used kenpom.com's conference ratings (essentially, their average Pythagorean winning percentages) as coefficients. This yielded a figure I call Weighted Efficiency Margin (WEM), which may not be perfect, but it's better than the RPI. Here's how teams ranked in order of WEM:
Rk. Team Conf. Conf. Weighted
EffMgn Rating Margin
1 UConn +0.23 .8696 +0.20
2 Memphis +0.26 .6868 +0.18
3 Missouri +0.18 .8522 +0.15
4 Michigan State +0.18 .8495 +0.15
5 Pitt +0.17 .8696 +0.15
6 UCLA +0.16 .8738 +0.14
7 Oklahoma +0.16 .8522 +0.14
8 Gonzaga +0.27 .5164 +0.14
9 Kansas +0.15 .8522 +0.13
10 Marquette +0.14 .8696 +0.12
11 Xavier +0.19 .6396 +0.12
12 UNC +0.13 .8819 +0.11
13 Duke +0.12 .8819 +0.11
14 Louisville +0.11 .8696 +0.10
15 Villanova +0.11 .8696 +0.10
16 Butler +0.17 .5835 +0.10
17 Illinois +0.11 .8495 +0.09
18 Arizona State +0.10 .8738 +0.09
19 Utah State +0.14 .5463 +0.08
20 Purdue +0.08 .8495 +0.07
21 Clemson +0.07 .8819 +0.06
22 Wake Forest +0.06 .8819 +0.05
23 Florida State +0.02 .8819 +0.02
24 Syracuse +0.01 .8696 +0.01
25 Ohio State 0.00 .8495 0.00
What we learned from that mess above:
* There are three teams we have, to a degree, been forgetting about: Memphis, Missouri, and Michigan State. Especially Memphis. The Tigers sort of fell off the map after failing to win any of their marquee games -- against Xavier, Georgetown and Syracuse -- in November and December. But they've tinkered with their offense (moving Tyreke Evans, the nation's best freshman, to the point) and are playing even better defense than they did during last year's run to the national-title game. Even after removing the Conference USA stat-inflation, Memphis is the second-most efficient team in the country. Missouri, meanwhile, has a case for being the best team in the Big 12 -- even better than Oklahoma. And Michigan State has managed to be hyper-efficient despite losing Raymar Morgan to an extended series of illnesses -- good enough to be mentioned in the same conversation with top-five teams such as Pitt or Oklahoma.
* UConn doesn't just deserve to be No. 1 on the basis of record. The Huskies have blown away the Big East -- they've been more than twice as efficient as Louisville! -- and have the highest WEM of any team in the country. And they aren't getting the highest conference-coefficient boost, either: kenpom's formula likes the ACC and Pac-10 better than it does the Big East.
* There are some efficient teams being left out of the AP's Top 25, either because of lackluster non-conference performance or lack of overall exposure. I suspect LSU, the headliner of the next table, will creep into today's poll, but the Tigers have been ignored for far too long. Their WEM of +0.14 would be in the top 10, and Washington, Kentucky, Davidson and (surprisingly) Temple also should be included in the discussion:
Rk. Team Conf. Conf. Weighted
EffMargin Rating EffMargin
-- LSU +0.18 .7799 +0.14
-- Washington +0.12 .8738 +0.10
-- Kentucky +0.11 .7799 +0.09
-- Davidson +0.27 .2890 +0.08
-- Temple +0.11 .6396 +0.07
WEM may not have much staying power in the lexicon of college hoops stats, but it helps us expand our radar. Talk more Memphis, more Missouri, more Michigan State, keep an eye on LSU and Washington, and you might be a better-prepared bracketeer come tourney time.
SI.COM'S STARTING FIVE
(Wearing '77 Marquette tops, designed by Bo Ellis. These stay untucked!)
1. Ty Lawson, PG, North Carolina: He stepped up this week every time the Heels needed him, scoring 25 and dishing out five assists against Duke on Wednesday, and then putting up 21 and 4 against Miami on Sunday. (He also swore, but we'll forgive him.)
2. Jodie Meeks, G/F, Kentucky: He may not be a traditional two-guard, but you could do a lot worse than having Meeks at the two. He had another one of his "unconscious" games on Saturday against Arkansas, going for 45 points on 17-of-24 shooting.
3. Tasmin Mitchell, F, LSU: Consider this the beginning of our LSU Coverage Effort. Tas' had 41 points, 11 rebounds, five assists and no turnovers against Mississippi State on Wednesday. Everyone missed that while they were watching UNC-Duke.
4. Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma: 40-and-20s shall now be called Griffins. Big Blake had 40 points and 23 boards against Texas Tech on Saturday ... and he only played 31 minutes!
4. Hasheem Thabeet, C, UConn: The Most Powerful Force in America had quite the Saturday, missing a triple-double by just one block against Seton Hall. (He finished with 25 points, 20 boards and nine swats.)
THE ONE GAME YOU SHOULD CARE ABOUT
Monday, Feb. 16: Pitt at UConn (in Hartford, Conn.), 7 p.m.:
It's the Huskies' first big game without Jerome Dyson. You'll see plenty of Kemba Walker, A.J. Price and Craig Austrie trying to hound Levance Fields and force Pitt's other guards -- Jermaine Dixon, Ashton Gibbs, Gilbert Brown -- to make plays. And you'll see Thabeet-vs.-Blair, the best big-man matchup you're going to get all year in the Big East. It's the Biggest Big Monday of the season, and I'm picking UConn in a dogfight, by four.
YOUR MONDAY MOMENT OF ZEN
This, from 2006, is what Carolina kids do to celebrate beating Duke: jump over a burning bush (or a "Hansbrough," in the vernacular of hustle-praising ESPN announcers).
Damaris Lewis
Esti Ginzburg
Arizona Rattlers Cheerleaders
Biggest Retirements of 2010
Comments (19) Add A Comment
How are you still including Duke in the top team discussion. It's starting to become clear to everyone that they are not a top tier team, despite your posting of Kenpom's statistics. They don't have a PG and don't have an interior. As great as Henderson has played this year, you can't do anything in the tourney without PGs and a huge donut in the middle.
kappy712
Bridgeport , CT
Total Comments (1)
Your rankings are interesting. I agree that UNC should probably be a 3 seed in the tournament. They're soft. They don't rebound. They'll probably lose in the second round. Kansas and Gonzaga are obviously much better clubs, not to mention MSU, who they throttled by 35.
TheDonald
Total Comments (4)
Your statistics are very interesting. I agree that UNC is way overrated. They should be a 3 or 4 seed in the tourney tops. I see them going down in the second round. Kansas, Gonzaga, UCLA, and Missouri all are all much better clubs. Even MSU, who they throttled by 35, is better. What can they do? Soft.
TheDonald
Total Comments (4)
Sorry for repeating myself. My email is as inconsistent as a Ty Lawson's assist to turnover ratio.
TheDonald
Total Comments (4)
mark it down memphis will win the ncaas
KiNg Of SpOrT 23
Total Comments (28)
UNC will NOT lose to Gonzaga, since Gonzaga chokes everytime they play because of Coach Few. Zags are illprepared to play the tough teams, and they look BAD when they do play them.
IrishSean
Spokane, WA
Total Comments (34)
Yeah... After what UNC did to Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Duke recently they gotta be the 'softest' team in the country.
These are college aged kids TheDonald, god forbid if Ty Lawson has an off game or two (btw you shouldn't be saying anything after he showed his real game at Duke in the second half).
UNC's defense is a lot better than people think and they are worthy of being a number one seed right now regardless.
DRU
Total Comments (76)
Memphis is for real, and will make a deep run in the tournament. By the way, it is "rebuilding" year.
Here is what Memphis fans will hear from everyone:
1. "They play in weak conference." Yes, but not as weak as most people think. If you don't lose for 3 years and counting in any conferance, then that is impressive.
2. "They lost to the first 3 ranked teams they played." Yes we did, but we didn't have a point guard. Now Evans (best freshman) is running the team and we haven't lost. Totally different team, and we lost those games by a total of 15 points.
3. "They can't beat teams from the big 6." Thats a joke. Last NCAA tournament.....we rolled through Miss St (SEC), Texas (Big 12), Michigan St. (Big 10), UCLA (Pac 10). We were a number 1 seed and most people picked against us each round. This tournament we will be a 1 or 2 seed, and people will pick against us....again.
Finally, our recruiting class next year is rediculous. Memphis is here to stay. Go Tigers Go!!!
tnzazz
Nashville , TN
Total Comments (54)
Looks like Jerome Dyson's injury is going to hurt a little bit. DeJuan Blair was a man child tonight.
sports lounge
San Diego, CA
Total Comments (1)
I'll take the man-zilla Blair...you take your slide rule...and we'll see who gets the W. How Oklahoma remains in anything called a national discussion is beyond me...they haven't PLAYED a ranked team since December...and will only play against 5 all season.
By your math, they get a number 2 seed. By my eyes? I think they lose in the tourney second round.
Danielson
Total Comments (8)
Is this really better than RPI? Teams that play close games in the top conferences will be lower on your list than teams that play in mediocre conferences that blow their opponentst out (that's why Memphis is so high). Looking solely at conference play misses out on many quality opponents. Take UNC for example. They demolished Kentucky, MSU and Notre Dame. You need something quite a bit more complex than this to really be a better indicator than RPI.
And people that say UNC can't rebound must not look at the National leaders for rebounds. UNC is #2 overall in rebounds per game: http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/stats
Even if you adjust for possessions, they are still #21 (IN THE COUNTRY) in rebound pct: http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/north-carolina/team_stats?season=2008-2009
RobbieStats2
Total Comments (1)
When are fans going to give up the argument about conference strength as it relates to Memphis? Memphis has proven in three consecutive years that C-USA has not been the perceived albatross it is made out to be. Additionally, the point could be made that C-USA has actually been good for Memphis since every game is a must win and it puts the team in a tournament mindset beginning in January as opposed to having to turn it on in March.
Calipari recruits top 10 talent every year. His squads have proven "year-in and year-out", both in the tournament and in the regular season, they can beat any team in the country. Additionally, they typically do not drop games to inferior teams, unlike UNC (BC & Maryland '08), Oklahoma (Arkansas), Michigan State (Maryland, Northwestern, Penn State), Louisville (Western Kentucky). Cal has built an elite program within a decent conference. C-USA is not great, but UTEP, UAB and Houston are good squads and winning games in their gyms is difficult. Quite frankly, Memphis had more trouble with UTEP last year than they had with Texas, Michigan State or UCLA.
Marc Mensa
Memphis , TN
Total Comments (3)
All speculation. This is just the national media covering its collective arses: "Here are the easy traditional basketball powers we love, but here are some 'under-the-radar' teams we also need to mention in case they make a run in the tournament." Like Luke here, they'll invent obscure mathematical formulations to have their cake and eat it too.
The only true test is coming in March. These are just kids playing basketball and it will take both talent and luck to win the national championship. Good times.
xaisxyooj
Milwaukee , WI
Total Comments (9)
TheDonald, your a moron. Do you even watch MEN'S basketball? You SURELY must be watching women's, cuz you are not even close with anything you have said.
And to everyone else on the Duke and UNC bashing, let's put it this way. The ACC is the best and most unpredictable conference in the country. Everyone loves to beat up on each other! It's like a real family, if you have 3 brothers, they will fight each other, and one will always lose. BUT, when they fight people outside of the family, they always whoop **** No one can beat them. THAT my friends, is the ACC. They have whooped EVERYONE outside of conference play! The big yeast, the big ten, the sec, the pac ten... all WANT to be like those 3 brothers, but just can't ever get there.
So come tourney time, it will show just how strong the acc is once again when there are 5, yes 5 teams in the sweet 16. That's todays lesson kids! Enjoy, and soak it in. :)
Catacombs1
Raleigh , NC
Total Comments (27)
"The Donald" is for one of my favorite Heels. I thought the initial rankings were so ridiculous that I would then extrapolate from them to prove how UNC is weak. They are obviously not. Ty Lawson is nasty and the nod to his assist to turnover ratio was a hint that this was a sarcasm laden post. He's about to set the assist to turnover record for the ACC. This a league that has had points like Jay Will, Sydney Lowe, Phil Ford, Ray Felton, Kenny Anderson, Mark Price, and Kenny "the Jet" Smith to bame a few. The fact that he is about to set that record is remarkable. However I digress. UNC will get there defense situated and romp in the Tourney.
TheDonald
Total Comments (4)
I don't know much about Memphis this year as I haven't seen them play.
Forget all about the conference and this and that... can they shoot a damn free-throw???
McI
Fort Mc Murray, AB
Total Comments (562)
To McI: Memphis shot 90% last night against SMU making 36/40 free throws. So yes they can shoot a free throw.
memfisgirl
Newtown , PA
Total Comments (1)
Wow. As a lifetime Duke fan, I hate saying this. But whoever said UNC is soft or overrated is OUT OF THEIR MINDS. They could have beaten Michigan State by 50.
I can see UNC not making the final four, or bowing out in the final four to Pittsburgh (i think they've got the best matchup with UNC), but I can't fathom how anyone could say they were overrated.
Saying Memphis is overrated is more understandable. Not their fault they play in a crap conference, but they did drop several games to halfway decent teams outside of the conference and their 'resurrection' has less to do with line up tinkering and mor eto do with the opposition.
johnny6
Durham , NC
Total Comments (37)
On the other hand, maybe playing in a weak conference is a blessing, Memphis will be plenty refreshed for the tournament. There just isn't a barometer for how good they actually are. Guess we'll find out in March... which can't come soon enough!
On another note... I'm seeing 6 bids from the ACC and 7 from the Big East... down from the 8 and 8 that seemed legit until recently... so who the heck gets those 3 new empty spots...
johnny6
Durham , NC
Total Comments (37)
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