Behind the Scoreboard: In a fix? Short rest no cure

2009-11-06T11:24:20-05:00

By Sky Andrecheck, <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/">HardballTimes.com</a> This year Joe Girardi and Charlie Manuel have decided on markedly different strategies for managing their starting rotations in the World Series. Manuel is taking the conservative approach by throwing each of his starters on their usual four days' rest. Meanwhile Girardi is taking the ultra-aggressive approach by planning to start all of his pitchers on three days' rest in Games 4, 5, 6 and 7. Each manager has his own reasons for how he's handling his rotation, and I won’t question that here. What I do wonder, however, is whether the status of the Series would affect each manager’s decision.  It’s not necessarily a factor in this Series, but generally as teams become more desperate, they seem more likely to go to the short-rotation.  For instance, would Manuel have started Cliff Lee in Game 4 had the Phillies been trailing three games to none?  The reasoning behind such a move would be that game 4 is a must-win, so you have to go with your best.  But is that logic sound? Setting up a little hypothetical, let’s find out.  Let’s assume that both teams have identical pitchers.  Since they are identical, the probability of victory for each of Games 4 through 7 is 50 percent.  Therefore, if your team is in an 0-3 hole, you have just a .5*.5*.5*.5=6.25% chance of winning the Series.  But how about if you juggle the rotation to throw your pitchers on short rest?  Let’s assume the following probabilities, which are constructed so that the expected number of wins is the same no matter which strategy you pursue.  In Game 4, your team’s ace is going on short rest against the other team’s No. 4 starter -- we’ll assume a 65% probability of winning that game.  In Game 5, your team’s No. 2 starter is going on short rest against the other team’s fully rested ace -- we’ll assume a 35% chance of victory there.  In Game 6, your team’s No. 3 is going on short rest against the other team’s No. 2 -- we’ll assume a 40 percent chance of victory. And in Game 7, your ace is going on short rest against the opposition’s No. 3 starter -- we’ll assume a 60 percent chance of victory there. So, if we pursue the short-rest strategy, what’s the probability of pulling out a win in the Series?  Not only doesn’t it help, but it actually lowers the probability of winning. While you would have a 6.25% chance by sticking with your usual rotation, you have just a 5.46% chance of victory going with the three-man rotation. Therefore, all things being equal, going with the three-man rotation becomes a slightly worse strategy when trailing big in the Series.  That’s not to say that using a three-man rotation in the playoffs is always a bad idea, but using it because you’re desperate should not be the reason. Behind the Scoreboard: In a fix? Short rest no cure

2009-11-02T12:04:35-05:00

2009-11-03T22:21:48-05:00

Bill Rogers

Lodi 162182

6 Let's try the link again: http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/0B84DFADE52505CF8625766300120335? 7523699

2009-11-03T22:18:20-05:00

Bill Rogers

Lodi 162182

5 Bob Gibson says it all on the 3-day rest issue: http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/0B84DFADE52505CF8625766300120335?OpenDocument 7523661

2009-11-03T12:47:51-05:00

fmm205

Philadelphia 196069

3 I don't fully understand Sky's mathmatical mumbo jumbo, but I do know what I've seen in this series, and that's the following: CC not pitching well on full rest or short rest. Burnett losing on short rest, and a tired looking Pettite not pitching well on full rest Saturday. And remember, Pettite threw over a 100 pitches that night. Statistical probabilities aside, why does anyone think a 37 year old pitcher is going to pitch better on short rest than he did on full rest? And does anyone really think CC is going to pitch well in a game 7? Look to last season when he pitched down the stretch on the same short rest schedule and how the Phillies handled him in the NLDS. A game 7 start for CC will result in the same problems for him as last year. Even at 6'7" and 290 lbs., a pitcher is simply not effective pitching on short rest in this type of stressful situation as he may have been during the regular season. Of course, none of this matters if the Phillies come up short in game 6. 7514870

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The Moderator

New York 7