Behind the Scoreboard: Utley vs. Reggie

2009-11-05T16:11:59-05:00

<div class="photo_container image_right"> <div class="photo"><img src="http://img.fannation.com/upload/si_blog_post_images/46682/chase-utley-1104.jpg" alt="Chase-utley-1104" /></div> <div class="photo_attributes" style="text-align: left;">Chase Utley has blasted five home runs in five World Series<br />games, much to the delight of the Phillie Phanatic.<br />Nick Laham/Getty Images<br /></div> </div> <p><em><strong>By Sky Andrecheck, </strong></em><a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/"><em><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">HardballTimes.com</span></strong></em></a></p> <p><strong>Chase Utley</strong> has put on a massive display of power in the first five games of the World Series.  On Monday, he tied <strong>Reggie Jackson’</strong>s record for home runs in a single World Series with five bombs.  While Utley isn’t being called Mr. October yet, how does Utley’s feat compare with the legendary Jackson’s?</p> <p>While they each hit five homers, Utley performed his feat in just five games and 21 plate appearances, while Jackson homered five times in six games and 23 plate appearances.  By that measure, it would seem that Utley's performance was slightly more impressive.</p> <p>However, 2009 is much more power-friendly than 1977 was. Additionally, the '77 Dodgers pitching staff was superior to the '09 Yankees staff. The '09 Yankees gave up a dinger in 2.9 percent of all plate appearances, while the ’77 Dodgers gave up a long ball just 1.9% percent of the time.</p> <p>If you use these home run rates, the probability of an average player hitting at least five homers in 21 plate appearances against the 2009 Yankees is just 0.0028 percent.  In other words, there’s only a 1 in 3,500 chance of doing so.  How does this compare to Jackson’s feat?  Because of the depressed home run era in which he played and the excellent Dodger pitching staff he faced, Mr. October earns his nickname.  The odds of hitting at least five home runs in the 1977 World Series were nearly five times as great, at 16,000 to 1.  So, while Utley may have matched Jackson’s World Series record, his feat was significantly easier.</p> <p>Going into hypotheticals, what happens if Utley gets another eight plate appearances and jacks another homer to give him a record six World Series home runs?  Will his feat then be more impressive than Jackson’s?  In fact, no. The odds of hitting six homers in 29 plate appearances against the 2009 Yankees are about one in 7,000, meaning that Reggie’s accomplishment was still twice as tough. To match Mr. October’s feat in terms of difficulty, Chase would have to hit seven homers, in which case the odds of the accomplishment are one in 65,000. I’d love to see him get a chance to do it.</p> Behind the Scoreboard: Utley vs. Reggie

2009-11-04T11:45:39-05:00

2009-11-05T16:11:58-05:00

http://img.fannation.com/upload/user_profile/image/745/750/thumb/IN_ROCK.jpg 7 CA

OLD APA

Van Nuys 746410

5 please ....can we not include Reggie Jackson's name in the same sentence with a stellar team ballplayer like Utley ..... Jackson was nothing but a self-promoting sack of @#$%^$#@!@# that without that one series and the DH would only be in a conversation that included Dave Kingman ..... it is criminal enough that he gets mentioned in the same breath with the likes of Mays , Aaron , Mantle etc ..... 7554629

2009-11-05T08:26:34-05:00

eerfan

Bruceton Mills 24167

4 Can we cut Cole a break here. I would want the season to be over too. One year your on top, your the MVP and the next your in the pit of dispair. I just want to thank Cole for helping Philly win the World Series for us Philly Fans. Just relax now, get a 100% healthy, come back next spring more focused and put 2009 behind you. Don't worry about the few who boooooed you on your last outing, you know the Philly fans...they have short memories. Cole has a great future as do the Phillies if they can keep the team together and support each other through good times and the bad. As good as the Atlanta Brave's teams were, they didn't win the WS every year either. Look forward to next season! 7544506

2009-11-05T08:25:12-05:00

schmenkman

Collegeville 902664

3 You can't compare across leagues like you're doing, since the Dodgers' pitchers didn't have to face DH's. 7544472

2009-11-05T08:04:13-05:00

bumz

Brooklyn 908878

2 Dude -- Dodgers pitchers better than the current Yankees? CC and AJ versus Bert Hootan and Elias Sosa? Get real. I agree with the overall point that Reggie's feat was more impressive-- but the pitching staff comparison was absurd. 7544395

2009-11-04T23:07:23-05:00

High Plains Drifter

Colts Neck 168733

1 Utley's 5 HR's mean nothing now. If your team doesn't win the World Series the record is meaningless. 7542196

1101

The Moderator

New York 7