FanNation - The Republic of Sport

"preseason bias is a human fault that would be good for a computer ranking to avoid."

Any kind of "bias" would be good for any kind of ranking/poll to avoid... however, that will never happen. Any ranking/poll is inherently flawed--and biased. Any playoff based on polls is no better than the current BCS... er, BS. The only thing a team that doesn't win its conference championship has proven is that it isn't even the best team in its own conference, but, gee, maybe it's just so popular with the pollsters that it really might be the best team in the country (yeah, right).

Open Memo to Pollsters:

Texas BEAT Oklahoma on a neutral field you morons. Start acting like you have watched a few games this year and put down the jelly donuts and grow a brain.

I would probably vote in the polls similar to the way Maurice Patton did. I mean, is it fair that OU was ranked 4th 2 weeks after the UT game, has blown out every game since, and is now ranked 5th. I mean, shouldn't a team move up not down for their outstanding performance. I think that a team in the top 10 should not be allowed ot jump over more than 1 team in the top 10 who also won that weekend. Texas has the most recent loss of those 3 Big12 South schools so in my opinion should be ranked the lowest. Yeah they beat OU but that was like 6 weeks ago. I like the way this computer only looks at head to head matchups like a week or two past the game. I don't think you should punish a team for winning and just open the door for a team that wins a big game. Right now you move up a spot or stay stagnant for winning a regular game, but can move up like 8 spots for winning a big game. I think the maximum a team should be able to move up (remember this should only be for like the top12) for winning a big game is like 3 or 4.

I completely agree with #3. I think it's also stupid the way a loss in a playoff game knocks a team out. After the playoffs, people should vote on which team they think played the best and not base it on who won or lost.

I think our President Elect has bigger issues at the moment than "throwing his weight around in favor of a playoff". There will be a proper time and place for that, now is not it with the world in chaos. In other news though - the article on the computer's ranking methods is surprisingly an easy read. I do agree that the preseason bias should be eliminated.

QUOTE(#4):

Originally posted 09:50 PM ET  11.17 by ChunkyChuck

I think it's also stupid the way a loss in a playoff game knocks a team out. After the playoffs, people should vote on which team they think played the best and not base it on who won or lost.

Right... because, after all, it's only a beauty contest.

Some people really do not understand the concept of competition at all. Hey, "fans"... it's really not about you and what you "think" about anything. It's about two teams getting onto the field and seeing who can score the most points in 60 minutes (sometimes more) on a given day. The team that plays better when it counts (for example, in the Red Zone) ALWAYS wins (presuming, of course, the refs don't screw around--which they've done too often this season).

Someone should take Obama to Augusta National and show him the tree President Eisenhower wanted them to cut down.

QUOTE(#7):

Originally posted 07:45 AM ET  11.18 by jw61

Someone should take Obama to Augusta National and show him the tree President Eisenhower wanted them to cut down.

no, then Obama will say Augusta is discriminating and want women and Bill Ayers to join

Horned Frog, I think you're missing part of the picture: you can't look at any team's ranking and whether or not they should go up or down in a vacuum. You have to consider what other teams have done too and how much the latest game for a team adds (or doesn't add) to their overall resume. Each week is an overall evaluation of what that team has done over the course of the season. That's why USC was beating several teams by large margins but still dropping. They were playing crap teams while other teams were getting significant wins over ranked oponents! Merely winning doesn't guarantee you that you move up or stay where you are even, particularly if other teams are getting wins over significantly better opponents.

And your argument that "Texas has the most recent loss, so they should be ranked the lowest of the three Big 12 South teams" is ridiculous. Only a fool ranks OU higher than UT right now. First, TX beat OU, but even with that aside, TX has the tougher schedule and TX's loss was on the final play of the game and by just a few points in a true road game. OU lost by double digits on a neutral field. There is no logical argument for placing OU ahead of Texas in the rankings, even if OU beats Tech and Ok St.

Assuming OU beats TX TECH and OK ST to create a 3-way tie atop the Big 12 South, I would argue that Texas should be the HIGHEST ranked of the 3. First, their overall strength of schedule is greater than Tech's or OU's. Second, their loss came on the last play of the game in a true road game when they were missing key players on both sides of the ball (Quan Cosby, Brian Orakpo among them). OU's loss came by double digits on a neutral field. We don't know the nature of Tech's loss yet (again, assuming they do lose to OU), but if it's a nailbiter to a top team (like Texas' loss was), that puts them on even footing with Texas in the "respectability of their loss" dept., but Texas still has a significant edge in overall strength of schedule (and no, you can't give the tiebreaker to Tech based on their head-to-head win over TX because this is a 3-way tie where Texas beat OU, OU beat Tech and Tech beat Texas; it's circular, so you have to weigh all factors OTHER than head to head).

So bottom line, if Tech wins, they're in the Big 12 title game obviously and the nat'l title game if they win the Big 12. If they lose to OU though, it has to be Texas ranked highest of these three Big 12 South teams, and the Longhorns go to the conf title game and then the nat'l title game if they win there. It's the only way!

There's no thread on Mandel's projected Bowl Games, but if those come to fruition, what a sad end to such an exciting season. Texas vs. Ohio St? USC vs. Penn St? Alabama vs. Utah and Maryland(!) vs. Cincinnati-- this is truly a sad match-up that really lacks the ring of BCS bowl. Hopefully it ends up with a more exciting mix like USC vs. Texas/Alabama. I'd like to see Penn St. vs. Utah/Oklahoma. Texas vs. Alabama. Texas Tech vs. USC/Alabama. There should be a rejection option for stinkers like Maryland and Cincy, and won't it be Miami who goes to the Orange Bowl anyway? Miami vs. West Virginia sounds a heck of a lot better than what Stewey has.

zlh67 - How is UT's strength of schedule better than OU's? By the end of the season, both teams will have played each other, Kansas, Tech, and OSU. Yes, Texas also played Missouri (#12) this year, but Oklahoma played Cincinnati (#19) and TCU (#15). Strength of schedule goes to OU. Also, you're forgetting that OU had a key injury in the Texas game, and they were ahead for most of the game (as was Tech). Combine all of that with the fact that OU's loss will be the earlies of the three (assuming they beat TTU and OSU), and I think they have a great argument for winning the 3-way tie.

QUOTE(#10):

Originally posted 12:57 PM ET  11.18 by Sandy Underpants

There's no thread on Mandel's projected Bowl Games, but if those come to fruition, what a sad end to such an exciting season. Texas vs. Ohio St? USC vs. Penn St? Alabama vs. Utah and Maryland(!) vs. Cincinnati-- this is truly a sad match-up that really lacks the ring of BCS bowl. Hopefully it ends up with a more exciting mix like USC vs. Texas/Alabama. I'd like to see Penn St. vs. Utah/Oklahoma. Texas vs. Alabama. Texas Tech vs. USC/Alabama. There should be a rejection option for stinkers like Maryland and Cincy, and won't it be Miami who goes to the Orange Bowl anyway? Miami vs. West Virginia sounds a heck of a lot better than what Stewey has.

that's what happens when you give automatic bids to BCS conference winners. So the ACC and Big East champs could have 3 losses and go to a BCS game. The Big East winner could be unranked. The lame Pac 10 may get TWO teams in the BCS with arguable the 7th or 8th best conference in America. That's what you get when you have the money grubbing BCS conferences running the show. Their should be a rule for qualifying for BCS bowls similar to what Notre Dame has----finish in the top 8 for an automatic bid. Proof that the system is rigged for the money grubbing BCS conferences, of which USC is a member.

QUOTE(#11):

Originally posted 01:06 PM ET  11.18 by PaulAnderson

zlh67 - How is UT's strength of schedule better than OU's? By the end of the season, both teams will have played each other, Kansas, Tech, and OSU. Yes, Texas also played Missouri (#12) this year, but Oklahoma played Cincinnati (#19) and TCU (#15). Strength of schedule goes to OU. Also, you're forgetting that OU had a key injury in the Texas game, and they were ahead for most of the game (as was Tech). Combine all of that with the fact that OU's loss will be the earlies of the three (assuming they beat TTU and OSU), and I think they have a great argument for winning the 3-way tie.

it boils down to is beating TCU and Cincinnati at home, along with possibly beating Texas Tech at home, outwiegh losing head to head to Texas and the fact that Texas played 4 ranked teams in a row (including a ranked conference team Okla didn't play) and lost to TTech on the last play of the game on the road? Its a very close question, but head to head is hard to overlook and should be the ultimate tiebreaker.

Klee Irwin - You are right on. Texas beat OU head to head, end of story. If OU overtakes Texas in the BCS after beating TT, it will be purely political. Texas wins the computer stats in that part of the BCS formula. Unfortunately, they have to deal with the human polls that have short memories, and a love affair with OU and Florida. Florida is a fine team this year, but would not fare well against Texas or Texas Tech, or apparently, Ole Miss., either.

QUOTE(#14):

Originally posted 03:25 PM ET  11.18 by spectra

If OU overtakes Texas in the BCS after beating TT, it will be purely political.

Since when is the BCS (and all polls) anything but?

A more in-depth article could have really gotten to the heart of the problems with many of the computer ranking systems. Most simply look at wins and losses and weight all games equally, regardless of when in the season they are played and whether or not they are conference games (important for qualifying for the BCS). Billingsley isn't so limited in his system.

I like a lot of the thought that went into Billingsley's system, because I think there need to be some more factors built in, but he errors in what they are. While I think it's reasonable to have initial bias based on last year's results, it needs to either go away over time or be minimized. He does neither. He mentions the great example of Oregon losing games after Dixon got hurt and how that didn't affect the rankings of the teams that had already played Oregon. However, teams that played Kansas, Hawaii, Tennessee, or Michigan early in the season got unfairly rewarded based on how well those teams did last year. There are probably many better solutions like groupings of 10-20 teams and using average ratings, and/or recalculating the initial ratings based on the ratings after a few weeks. He rewards teams for defense, but irrespective of how good a team's offense is. If a team averaging 20 points a game is held to 3, that's more impressive than shutting out a team averaging 10 points. Also, an undefeated team should have more points by virtue of having won more games, not by being given a bonus for being undefeated. Ohio State is unfairly punished for having played a tough opponent early and losing.

Ceteris Paribus between Texas and OU, the head-to-head has to be the ultimate tie-breaker. That said, Texas advances to the Big 12 Title Game. Any other result should result in the pollsters going directly to the whipping block - Do not pass Go, Do not Collect $200.00.

QUOTE(#17):

Originally posted 06:34 PM ET  11.18 by Scott in Dallas

Ceteris Paribus between Texas and OU, the head-to-head has to be the ultimate tie-breaker. That said, Texas advances to the Big 12 Title Game. Any other result should result in the pollsters going directly to the whipping block - Do not pass Go, Do not Collect $200.00.

I think what is missing here is it is not a two team race. TT, TX, and OU would all have only one loss. The fairest way then would be to go with SOS, which would favor OU over TX as long as CINCY and TCU win out.

QUOTE(#18):

Originally posted 09:48 PM ET  11.18 by Armpit

I think what is missing here is it is not a two team race. TT, TX, and OU would all have only one loss. The fairest way then would be to go with SOS, which would favor OU over TX as long as CINCY and TCU win out.

Although it is unclear which of these 3 teams is the best of the Big XII South, it seems to me that, if TTech loses to OU, then Texas should clearly get the conference Championship birth. Why? Because Texas and OU was a neutral field and Texas won. TTech beat Texas at home and OU would have beaten TTech at home. The only game not won by the home team is Texas/OU. Since both teams have evenly represented fan support at that game, it only seems fair to conclude that Texas/OU had the most even playing field and Texas won.