By Hugh Falk, Pollspeak.com
The ACC is No. 1? It is according to Sagarin's conference ratings. How can a league that doesn't have a dominating team or a national title contender be the top conference? The answer lies not at the top, but at the bottom. N.C. State is the ACC's lowest ranked team at No. 56 (using standard Sagarin Ratings). Meanwhile, other BCS leagues have several teams ranked lower:
SEC: Auburn (No. 69), Tennessee (No. 73), Arkansas (No. 81) and Mississippi State (No. 97).
Big East: Louisville (No. 88) and Syracuse (No. 102).
Big 10: Illinois (No. 58), Minnesota (No. 64), Purdue (No. 72), Michigan (No. 86) and Indiana (No. 112).
Big 12: Baylor (No. 67), Colorado (No. 74), Kansas State (No. 77), Texas A&M (No. 94) and Iowa State (No. 117).
PAC-10: Stanford (No. 63), Arizona State (No. 76), UCLA (No. 91), Washington (No. 147) and Washington State (No. 154).
Notre Dame is ranked No. 59.
The ACC has three top 20 teams according to Sagarin (Georgia Tech, Boston College and Florida State), but no top 10 team. So, looking at the mean, median or whatever formula you like to find the general strength of a league, the ACC may be the best. However, is this really a good measure of conference strength? Wouldn't teams like Alabama, Florida, Texas, Oklahoma or USC run through the ACC without a loss? If this were war, wouldn't the strongest side be the one with people left standing at the end? Unfortunately that is a question that can only be answered in bars and video games. Regardless, it seems some computers believe parity is more important than dominance -- as long as it reflects parity of strong teams and not weak ones.
Parity in the ACC is demonstrated by the fact that neither division will be determined until this week's games are played. Also, a lot will be revealed about the comparative strength of the ACC on Saturday with several key games against SEC opponents (Florida at FSU, Vanderbilt at Wake Forest, South Carolina at Clemson and Georgia Tech at Georgia).
Conventional wisdom would have the ACC losing most if not all of these games. However, this weekend will be a good test of human conventional wisdom vs. computer math.
Enough talk about the ACC and computers. Let's look at the Big 12 South and humans. Now that there is a three-way tie of one-loss teams at the top, how did voters handle the situation? As usual, we'll look at the AP Poll (the only poll with public ballots) as an example:
No surprise -- after last week's shellacking, everybody ranks Oklahoma over Texas Tech.
More surprising -- everybody also has Texas over Texas Tech, even though the Red Raiders won the head-to-head. I expected most people to vote as they did, but I didn't expect it to be unanimous.
The last comparison is where it gets messy -- 37 of 65 voters rank Texas over Oklahoma. That's only a bit more than half.
In retrospect, I really wish Texas Tech were able to keep the game close with Oklahoma. It could have given us a good idea of how much weight voters put on "what have you done for me lately?" However, the Sooners' domination of the Red Raiders really does give them a clear advantage in the three way tie, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Oklahoma with the edge in the human polls if it wins next week. However, it is good to see the computers pulling some weight in the BCS this week.
Here is the comparison: Oklahoma is ranked higher in both the Coaches' and Harris Interactive Polls. Texas is ranked over Oklahoma in four out of the six computer polls (including two No. 1 votes). So in total, there are four BCS components with Texas on top and four with Oklahoma on top (including both human polls). Yet the official BCS standings puts Texas at No. 2 and Oklahoma at No. 3. Of course, next week Oklahoma plays Oklahoma State.
If all three teams win next week, the BCS won't just decide the national champion, it will also decide the Big 12 South champion. Tie-breaker rule No. 5 for the Big 12 is, "The highest-ranked team in the first Bowl Championship Series Poll following the completion of Big 12 regular-season conference play shall be the representative." Once again, we call for the BCS to recognize its power and address its flaws. There is a lot more at stake than the fate of two teams. The BCS also affects most teams' TV coverage, recruiting and now conference championships, too.
For more poll analysis, go to pollspeak.com.
Jarah Mariano
Alison Preston
Back in Time: July 3
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Comments (37) Add A Comment
"Wouldn't teams like Alabama, Florida, Texas, Oklahoma or USC run through the ACC without a loss?"
No. :D
GlennAllen
Richmond , VA
Total Comments (198)
I know Washington is bad, but how can they be ranked #149 when there are only 119 teams?
Sandy Underpants
Los Angeles, CA
Total Comments (1126)
You're forgetting the I-AA teams, which Sagarin also includes.
GlennAllen
Richmond , VA
Total Comments (198)
GlennAllen, I must disagree. If Oklahoma was in the ACC, they'd have devoured the competition. Their only loss was to Texas; there is no team in the same league as Texas in the ACC. Same with Alabama (they're undefeated in a much more difficult league), Texas (no one nearly as good as Tech in the ACC) and USC (turns out, there's no one as good as OREGON STATE in the ACC - ouch). I simply don't see where any of these teams would trip up in the ACC. It would happen to one or two of them (see: Florida - Ole Miss), but, presumptively, we can say that any of these teams would at least demolish the ACC with 1 loss, or go undefeated.
JoeFish
Lewisburg, PA
Total Comments (37)
Kudos to the ACC for being entertaining - who knows who will win any given game. But, c'mon, if FSU is among the best you have to offer... sheesh. We'll take those chumps out big time this weekend. 56-10, at least. The ACC = The Almost Competitive Conference (nationwide), Always Competitive Conference (among itself).
GatorSwamp
Total Comments (1115)
Sadly, I don't look at rankings when trying to determine relative "quality". I look at team play and game records (who played whom and the score and other stuff). I see plenty of indicators that tell me (almost) any one of the ACC teams could beat any of those "top-ranked" teams on any given Saturday; and one of them playing ALL of the ACC teams in succession? At least one loss... minimum. What others see is fine by me. This is why Division I-A needs a real playoff. Fan (and sports writer, and poll voter) bias is what it is.
GlennAllen
Richmond , VA
Total Comments (198)
a
u grad
Jacksonville , FL
Total Comments (67)
if anything the ACC has been interesting. Everyone knew it would be Alabama and FL by week 4 of the season and everyone pretty much knew after USC lost to OSU that it would be OSU or USC depending on if the beavers lost or not.
Everyone knew it would be Texas or OU winning the big12 addmitingly Texas Tech did throw a wrench. And everyone knew it would be either OSU or Penn State winning big 10.
The ACC is still undecided... so forget all you guys top to bottom we are the best conference, we just cant beat any other conference teams hahaha! Mark it down though Miami and FSU will back in top 10 next year. Back where we belong!
u grad
Jacksonville , FL
Total Comments (67)
yes, conventional wisdom totally would have a Vandy team that's lost to Duke and Tennessee rolling over Wake Forest...kudos to SI for staying on the "ACC stinks" bandwagon long after the rest of the national media has realized the week one does not a season make
goalielax
Atlanta , GA
Total Comments (8)
They may be the most balanced conference...just not the "best" conference.
The only way to tell the best conference is to look at ooc wins/losses during the regular season and more importantly the win/losses during the bowl games. Using Mandel's projected bowl games...what if OU beats Florida, Texas clobbers USC, and the other Big 12 schools finish bowl season with a winning record??? Big 12 is the best conference. What if SC beats Texas, Oregon State squeaks out a win against PSU and at least Cal or Oregon win...maybe the 10 isn't so bad (OK...so, we will still have the two worst teams in Div I)???
Once again, we can't let a computer tell us which teams are good based on some mathematical equation. Let's see how the rest of the games play out.
robois
Washington, DC
Total Comments (96)
Why is no one mentioning that not one sec team has a win against a top 25 team outside of the sec? FL and AL have one win against GA a piece in the top 25 and GA has beating no one. There have been some ugly losses out of conference (not to mention the AL / Troy game). Ole Mis lost to Wake Forest, TN beat by a bad UCLA, AR destroyed by TX, Aub doubled up by WV, Miss St blown out by GA tech, TN loss to WY, Vandy loss to Duke.
FL is a good team showing itself by blowing out weak (this year) SEC teams and AL is well rounded but looking that their schedule they are squeaking by weak teams.
As I looked at it OU has more quality wins out of conference than the 12 SEC teams combined.
theweasel
Marietta , OK
Total Comments (35)
I think Alabama's schedule has been easier thus far than the schedule of any ACC team. In fact, Clemson has arguably been Alabama's third most difficult opponent thus far.
Tshalla
Total Comments (51)
(sorry for typos earlier message just having my first cup of coffee . . .in Thailand here's what I meant to say)
Why is no one mentioning that not one sec team has a quality win (top 25) team outside of the sec? FL and AL have one win against GA and GA has beaten no one. There have been some ugly losses out of conference (not to mention the LSU / Troy game). Ole Mis lost to Wake Forest, TN beat by a bad UCLA, AR destroyed by TX, Aub doubled up by WV, Miss St blown out by GA tech, TN loss to WY, Vandy loss to Duke. Every opportunity for the SEC to prove itself it has laid an egg.
Compare the Big 12 - MO beat IL, CO beat WV, OU beat Cin and TCU, TX beat AR, OSU blew out Troy and Houston,
No doubt the B12 has some bad losses but at least there are some good OOC wins to mix in with the losses.
If GA and FL get good wins this week end they can help but overall this is an ugly year for the SEC.
theweasel
Marietta , OK
Total Comments (35)
Would UF, Alabama, Texas, USC, or Ok run roughshod over the ACC? Probably, but they are also running roughshod over their own respective conferences. What would that prove that we dont already know? While the ACC doesn't have the elite teams this year, they are the deepest league by a long shot.
If you want data, look at cnnsi's conference rankings where they discuss each league's OOC record versus the BCS 6+ and you might be surprised to see the ACC with the best record against the other BCS 6+ conferences, including 4-0 versus the media darling Big 12. If the ACC can go 4-0 versus the Big 12, winning by big margins, then no wonder those two teams are killing everybody in that conference.
BCS Sucks
Total Comments (10)
OMG! Like the ACC is the BEST conf ITC hands down!!!!!!!!! We are sooo awesome but we just Beat Each Other Up every Sat!!! Anyone that can get thru the ACC gauntlet and win the ACC CHAMPIONSHIP DESERVES to be in the NC game!!! I can't stress enough.......
(Alarm clock goes off....)
Oh.... Huh?.... What just happened?.... Oh. I was dreaming I was an SEC fan for a second there.... sorry.
alteredmentalstatus
Dallas, TX
Total Comments (215)
This year the SEC, Big East, and ACC would all finish behind the Mountain West's second place team, TCU. The BCS system should use some sort of draft lottery to choose the best teams of that season to play instead of locking out several "unworthy" conferences. It is so unfair that a 7-5 also ran from those three conferences go to big money bowl games while TCU gets "rewarded" with the Poinsettia Bowl.
Eurofrog
Total Comments (1)
Drugs are bad, mmkay?
BCS Sucks
Total Comments (10)
theweasel, If your going to count Mizzou's win over Illinois has a good non-conf win, then you have to count Alabama's win over Clemson. Illinois is 5-7, Clemson is 6-5.
Plus, the SEC has 4 non-conf games this week, while the Big 12 has already played all of their non-conf games. If Florida and Georgia win this win, that we'll be 2 more wins vs ranked teams, which will boost their record a bit. Plus Florida beat Miami, which has been a top 25 team this year, just not when they played.
I think Mizzou is vastly overrated, they have only beaten 3 teams with at least 6 wins. Same with OSU, they've beaten nobody except Mizzou. Now, I think the Big 12 is the best conf right now, based on their top 3 to the SEC's top 2, but if your going to say UGA hasn't played anyone, then point the finger right back at Mizzou.
ProphetDTG
Total Comments (45)
You have to love the conference arguments. They are totally irrelevant (conferences don't win titles, teams do), but still interest me and lots of other people.
Having said that the Big 12 is the best conference this year. After that, there is no reson that the ACC is not the next best conference. The top teams in the SEC, Pac 10, and Big 10, may all be better than the ACC's best teams, but we won't know until bowl season. I think with the following four exceptions any other team in the country would be mixed right into the ACC mix this year. Florida (pains me to say this as a die hard NOLE), Texas, Oklahoma, and USC. Every other team in the country would have at least two losses in the ACC.
GO NOLES!!!!!
Tallahassee , FL
Total Comments (3)
Computer conference power rankings aren't particularly useful until after the bowl season is over. Look at the Big 12 - everyone would agree that their three top teams would be competitive or dominant just about anywhere. However, between the three of them, they have only face one other big conference team (Texas vs Arkansas). This means they have little to no influence over the stats, until they face teams from other leagues in their bowl games. Likewise with the top-heavy SEC - Alabama and Florida have each faced one team from another league (ACC). So, given how infrequently the heavyweights schedule more than 1 big inter-league game per year, the computer rankings will always be based more on the performance of the league under-card matchups, until the heavy hitters start squaring off in the bowl games.
As for my own personal opinion, the Big 12 has been the most impressive thus far. ACC and SEC have had enough matchups that while the SEC's top teams are clearly better than the ACC's, on a league level they're basically about even. The Big East is, and will remain, completely awful, and should be replaced in the BCS by the consistently good Mountain West (my apologies to the WV fans - you deserve a better league). Pac 10 wasn't as good as the pollsters thought early this season, but they sure aren't as bad as the pollsters seem to think right now. And the Big 10, as usual, will remain a mystery until the bowl games, where they'll either win them all or get whipped in every one of them - they're always a huge unknown.
Nole
Fayetteville , GA
Total Comments (8)
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