By Hugh Falk, Pollspeak.com
The BCS rankings took on extra importance this week when the Big 12 used them to determine its South Division champion, as Oklahoma is ranked No. 2 in the BCS ahead of No. 3 Texas. Last week I predicted an Oklahoma "victory" if all three Big 12 South leaders won their games, which they did. However, I expected the human voters to give them the edge, and I was wrong on that one.
Texas actually has a slight (almost negligible) edge in the human polls, although both teams average a No. 3 ranking. Texas is ranked No. 3 in both polls while Oklahoma is No. 4 in Harris and No. 2 in the Coaches' Poll. The real difference is in the computer rankings, with Oklahoma getting three first place votes to Texas' one.
As I've mentioned in the past, the computers have no long-term concept of head-to-head match ups (though arguably, human voters don't, either). So, it doesn't surprise me that Oklahoma ended up on top. However, if the Big 12 (or Texas fans) don't like how the tiebreaker played out, they shouldn't blame the BCS. Instead, they should enforce a head-to-head rule just like the SEC does. The SEC tiebreaker is similar to the Big 12, but if the teams are within five spots of each other, the head-to-head results are the deciding factor instead. That's a great safety valve to override the voters and computers who ignore head to head results.
While the BCS' top four is always interesting, the bottom four this week is also interesting:
No. 22 Northwestern was ranked No. 22 in both human polls, but only cracked the top 25 in one computer rating, Anderson/Hester, which ranked the Wildcats No. 25. Yet that was still enough to keep them at No. 22 in the BCS.
No. 23 Pittsburgh similarly keeps the same ranking it received from human voters in the BCS.
Meanwhile, the last two, No. 24 Florida State and No. 25 Virginia Tech, are just the opposite. They were not ranked by either Harris Interactive or the Coaches, yet both teams still snuck into the BCS based on the strength of their computer rankings. That is a rarity since the computers have been relegated to one-third of the BCS formula, but it shows that the computers can make a difference at the top and the bottom of the BCS.
As for the humans, most people obviously voted Alabama No. 1, but if you look at who received the second most first-place votes (overall) it was neither Texas nor Oklahoma, but rather Florida. The Gators dismantled the Seminoles in the swamp (not the "Swamp" in Gainesville ... the temporary swamp in Tallahassee caused by constant rain), and have impressed at least a few new voters in Florida and elsewhere. Looking at the AP ballots, which are the only ones made available each week, the three No. 1 votes for Florida come from two California voters and one Virginian. If Florida can beat Alabama in Atlanta, the Gators will surely get several more No. 1 votes.
One last note about Florida. The Gators were the only SEC winner in the four SEC vs. ACC matchups this weekend. The ACC definitely proved itself a solid league. The Georgia Tech victory over Georgia was particularly impressive, and even though both teams now have the same record, three voters still ranked the Bulldogs over the Yellow Jackets. However, with Florida beating FSU soundly, the ACC also showed it has no top 10-caliber teams this year. Sagarin ranked the ACC as the strongest conference last week, and Anderson/Hester did this week, too. Still, it's a dubious honor to be the strongest conference but to not have had a shot at the national championship since week one. Although, one could argue that if Georgia Tech and Boston College didn't play in such a tough league (their only losses are to ACC teams), they could be undefeated right now. But let's table that argument until after the bowls.
For more poll analysis, go to pollspeak.com.
Jarah Mariano
Alison Preston
Back in Time: July 3
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Comments (43) Add A Comment
This is the problem with human polls. A week ago, both the coaches and AP polls had Oklahoma ahead of Texas. This week, after Oklahoma, if anything, improved the merit of their ranking by beating a tough top-15 opponent on the road while Texas played a laugher against a bad team at home, the human polls both have Texas' standing improving, closing the gap to 1 pt in one poll and actually moving ahead in the other.
Nothing that happened this week on the field changed anyone's mind. Rather, it was just politicking and debate that apparently caused some voters to move Texas ahead of Oklahoma. The computer rankings have no such bias and cannot be influenced by debate. They go strictly by on the field performance. They had Texas ranked higher last week, and Oklahoma justifiably moving ahead this week due to their performance on the field. Nothing else.
Rikj
Derry , NH
Total Comments (715)
"the ACC also showed it has no top 10-caliber teams this year."
Tech will be next year. If we played at the beginning of the season like we played at the end, we could be sitting on 11-1 right now (only loss being at UNC, that was ugly).
Georgia Tech…
Rome , GA
Total Comments (414)
"the ACC also showed it has no top 10-caliber teams this year."
Tech will be next year. If we played at the beginning of the season like we played at the end, we could be sitting on 11-1 right now (only loss being at UNC, that was ugly).
Georgia Tech…
Rome , GA
Total Comments (414)
I'm not comfortable with the human vote and the way that they can MANIPULATE it by changing their votes....
I still do not see how they jumped TX over FL in this weeks tally.....What could they have seen in a TX home win against an UNRANKED team and FL win on the road against an UNRANKED one?
CRIMSONandCREAM
Orlando, FL
Total Comments (7384)
"...the ACC also showed it has no top 10-caliber teams this year."
This presumes polls--whether human or computer--are accurate, which we all know (except for those "expert" pollsters) is not true. Theme song for polls (and most especially the BCS): "I feel pretty, oh so pretty...". :D
GlennAllen
Richmond , VA
Total Comments (198)
The humans realized it was a mistake to move Oklahoma ahead of a Texas team that beat them on a neutral field 45-35. They realized this was done on the heels of a dramatic pounding of Texas Tech which everyone previously believed to be solid but their game against Baylor showed us that Tech is not very good and it was a fluke that they beat Texas.
Florida's best wins were against Georgia and LSU, both of which lost last weekend. LSU lost to an Arkansas team that Texas destroyed 52-10... and it was 52-3 until the last minute of that game.
voidnull
Total Comments (21)
Computers had OU at #1, ahead of Texas, ahead of Florida, and ahead of unbeaten Alabama. Computers have no calculation for head-to-head. Computers cannot reason. They can only calculate.
Remember the movie War Games back in the 80s? If we let the computers run things, we will end up with Global Thermal Nuclear War.
rocker34
Austin , TX
Total Comments (15)
Rocker34 -
I kinda get what you mean, but in that movie it was the computers that realized it was a zero sum game in the end anyway. It was the fault of the idiot humans who put it there in the first place and the idiot humans who programmed the damn thing. Garbage in, garbage out.
Humans get too worked up by emotion and can't see all the games and take in all the variables. On the other hand, they can deal with each new situation as it comes up and adjust their thinking accordingly.
Computers don't have to worry about emotion and can take in all the variables that they are programmed to deal with. The problem is they can't course-correct worth a damn.
figaro1010
Total Comments (15)
They didn't suddenly "realize" anything. They are human, and were influenced by the debate about the BCS ranking deciding the winner of the conference. I mean heck, if they realized Tech wasn't as good a team as they thought...wouldn't that affect their view of Texas, who lost to Tech,more than it would affect their view of Oklahoma for beating them?
Why do you profess that Tech beating Texas was a fluke, when it could just as easily be viewed that Texas beating Oklahoma was a fluke? I'm not saying that was a fluke. Texas is a very good team. But you can't hold one head to head matchup as a definitive statement of why one team should be ranked higher, then write the other off as a fluke. Judge them equally.
Rikj
Derry , NH
Total Comments (715)
To all you Horns fans what did it feel like routing for Oklahoma to win Sat. night? Also I think a good 5th tiebreak for the Big 12 would be the three teams road records against ranked teams lets see Okla. 1-0, Texas 0-1, Texas Tech 0-1.
rcage77
Collinsville , OK
Total Comments (1)
Because Tech sucked vs. both Oklahoma and Baylor.... Baylor!
voidnull
Total Comments (21)
from another blog, how Florida could be left out of the BCS title game even if they win the SEC:
While it's a longshot, Florida being left out of the title game with a win over Alabama would be entirely legitimate.
Why? Because an 11-1 Texas would clearly have a better resume than a 12-1 Florida. Just look at the details:
BEST WIN
Florida: over Alabama (likely to finish #4 or #5 in the final standings)
Texas: over Oklahoma (a lock to finish #2 in the final standings)
--both wins will have been at neutral sites
Advantage: Texas.
OTHER WINS OVER RANKED TEAMS
Florida: #17 Georgia.
Texas: #14 Oklahoma State, #19 Missouri.
Advantage: Texas.
MOST FORGIVABLE LOSS
Florida: to Mississippi (#22 AP, unranked BCS), at home, by 1 point.
Texas: to Texas Tech (#8 AP, #7 BCS), on the road, with 1 second left on the clock.
Advantage: Texas.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE:
using Sagarin ratings:
Florida: 28th
Texas: 12th
(granted that Florida's will improve with the Alabama game, but it almost certainly will stay behind Texas'.)
Advantage: Texas.
This is what the computers would see very clearly, and why they'd be quite correct in ranking Texas #2 at the end of the regular season, in the event of an Alabama loss in the SEC title game.
If Alabama loses, it remains to be seen just how the poll voters will rank the three top teams (Florida, Oklahoma, and Texas). But all the LOGICAL means of determining that vote would be very clear, as outlined above. It should be an Oklahoma vs. Texas BCS title game.
Klee Irwin
Total Comments (1595)
"Instead, they should enforce a head-to-head rule just like the SEC does. The SEC tiebreaker is similar to the Big 12, but if the teams are within five spots of each other, the head-to-head results are the deciding factor instead. That's a great safety valve to override the voters and computers who ignore head to head results." - from the above article
That doesn't solve anything. OU, TX and TX Tech are all ranked within 5 spots of each other, so there would still be a 3-way tie.
SoonerMichael
Oklahoma City , OK
Total Comments (1)
There is a logical flaw here.
The computer ranking would either stick to the ranking after this week's game or the last week ranking.
If it is the last week's ranking, (1) Alabama will be still ranked NO. 1. So, the edge goes to Florida (2) Florida State is also ranked in BCS ranking.
It it is this week's ranking, the ranking of Missouri will drop. Along with FSU's ranking, the edge may go to Florida as well.
blue and orange
Fayetteville , NY
Total Comments (2)
they throw out the lowest ranked team skeezix, and then use head to head btw the other 2.
Klee Irwin
Total Comments (1595)
you are missing the point. Texas is so far ahead in the computers that the only thing that can vault Florida ahead is a unanimous human poll ranking of Florida at No 1 in both media polls. If some media voters change their minds and go with Texas or put Oklahoma No1 on enough ballots, they can't overcome the computer deficit. Missouri will drop but so will Alabama. And Texas and Okla will both move up in the rankings.
Klee Irwin
Total Comments (1595)
computers do weigh head to head, but it appears not heavily enough. I would think that is a flaw that needs to be corrected. the computers should not read a Texas victory over Oklahoma the same way as a Texas victory over Baylor and an Oklahoma victory over Tex A&M. My guess is that they will have to tweak that. That is where the human polls should have stepped up and more fully rewarded Texas for the head to head win. the fact that Texas was still behind Oklahoma in the coach's poll proves that the failure is really a human poll failure, as they could have overwhelmingly recognized Texas clear victory on the field and did not.
Klee Irwin
Total Comments (1595)
Uh, excuse me? We did beat a #1 team (OU) -- and that game was NOT in Austin...
G-Child
Laurel , MD
Total Comments (9)
I don't think that I am missing the point. I was answering to your argument as to who have the edge!
Texas won't be so much ahead of the computer any longer. If Florida beat Alabama this week, it certainly would at least jump to at least No. 4 if not higher (pass Utah No. 5, and Alabama, and maybe TTech No. 4). And who says, it won't jump over Texas or/and Oklahoma?
The human polls will change, too. This past week, human voters were torn between Texas and Oklahoma; many voters actually demoted Florida just to get their favorite team (TX or OU) a spot higher. Now that the dust is settled, along with the new win Florida over Bama, Florida could win lots of human votes back and likely go straight to No. 1.
Plus, the more conversations like yours occur in the cyberspace, the more likely voters will want to vote Florida No. 1 and push Texas down further to avoid a potential big 12 championship game (wait, that is between OU and Missouri) disguised as a national championship game. Remember what happened to Michigan in 2006? Many voters changed their minds to put Florida ahead of Michigan to avoid a OSU-Michigan re-match. It does not make sense to see a re-match between OU and TX. Most voters want to see Big 12 vs. SEC. For that, Bama may be just ahead of TX in human polls as a safe cushion to prevent an TX-OU re-match.
blue and orange
Fayetteville , NY
Total Comments (2)
again you are missing the point and comparing apples and oranges. Did you read the article? Florida is TOO FAR BACK to take over Texas in the computer polls. Their only hope is that they are unanimous No 1 in both human polls. The point of the article is that it will be real interesting if Florida is not No 1 in both human polls. What do you not understand about that?
And the Michigan-Ohio St analogy is off base. In that scenario, the Mich-OSU game was the LAST game of the year. Michigan was justifably dropped not so much because of the conference rematch argument as they were because THEY LOST the last game, so Florida moved up. Rarely, if ever, does a team LOSE and only drop one spot in the polls. In fact, I can only think of one example. This year, there is no last game btw two conf rivals. OU and Texas played in midseason and now both teams are ranked near the top. There is no scenario like the Ohio St-Mich one this year. It helps to discern the subtle differences in facts if you are going to engage in debate.
Klee Irwin
Total Comments (1595)
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